Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 9:01PM Monday May 20, 2019 5:12 PM EDT (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 341 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201905210315;;181994 FZUS53 KDTX 201941 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 341 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-210315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201939 cca
afddtx
area forecast discussion... Corrected marine section
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
325 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Discussion
It has been a chilly late may day across SE mi as temps have largely
remained in the low-mid 50s with westerly winds gusting in the 20 to
30 mph range. Surface high pressure will expand into lower mi from
the west during the course of the night, tucked under a region of
mid level confluence. The resulting low level anticyclonic flow and
loss in diurnal mixing will support a clearing trend during the
evening, possibly into the early overnight. Veering of the low level
flow toward the northwest and the southeastward expansion of the
lake mi marine layer will cause the clearing to take hold from
northwest to southeast tonight. As the sfc high builds in overnight,
winds will become light, supporting decent radiational cooling. This
cooling will be limited to a degree by an increase in mid high level
clouds late tonight, mainly south of the i-69 corridor. The saginaw
valley and thumb region, where evening clearing will be the earliest
to occur will see the greatest degree of cooling, with mins likely
dipping down into the 30s. Lows in the 40s should suffice elsewhere.

Given that the low levels remain relatively moist (sfc dewpoints
still around 40) only patchy frost will be mentioned across the
north tonight.

Se mi will lie between a deep upper level low rotating across the
central high plains and an upper low moving into the canadian
maritimes on Tuesday. This will result in a sharpening mid level
ridge axis across the great lakes, sustaining the sfc high across
the region. There will however be a forced transport of higher mid
level moisture into SRN mi during the day Tuesday within the
entrance region of an impressive 160 upper jet MAX over ERN canada.

Model solutions suggest this moisture combined with some mid level
frontal forcing will support some showers across NRN in, possibly
far SW lower mi on Tuesday. As mid level heights build during the
day, this frontal circulation is shown to weaken. This and a fairly
substantial sub 700mb dry layer will support a dry forecast Tuesday,
although there will be ample mid and high clouds through the day.

Some moderation in the low level thermal profile will allow tues
high temps to make a run at lower 60s, with cooler readings near the
lakes under onshore flow.

With the plains upper low forecast to lift into the northern plains
on Wednesday, strong low-mid level southwest inflow across the ohio
valley will drive mid level moisture and an elevated instability
plume into SE mi. Timing looks to be late tues night into early
Wednesday. Fairly steep mid level lapse rates within this moisture
feed will be supportive of a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. There will be a strengthening of the low level
southeast flow overnight Tuesday into the day Wednesday with the
approach of the sfc warm front. This may lead to yet another round
of water level rises and flooding concerns along the shores of lakes
st clair and erie. There is a fair amount of model agreement in
suggesting the warm front will lift into SE mi late wed. The
timing placement of this front will have substantial impact on
temperatures Wednesday as it will replace a cool marine modified
airmass with a more summer-like temperature humidity regime.

Thursday, southeastern michigan will have shower and thunderstorm
chances from a weak cold front trailing a shortwave located north of
lake superior. This is quickly followed by a small ridge of high
pressure that will be over the state on early Friday. By late Friday
evening shower and storm chances return and linger through the day
Saturday as a warm front moves across SE mi. This front is tied to a
low that will be moving northeast from the plains into minnesota. As
the low moves into ontario and quebec, the trailing cold front is
looking to stall out near or just south of the ohio border. This
becomes a stationary front that will keep rain chances for counties
along the ohio border from Saturday night through Sunday.

Marine
West-northwest winds this afternoon gusting to around 25 knots this
afternoon will slowly decrease this evening and shift to the
northeast overnight as high pressure builds into the area through
tomorrow, providing light winds and favorable marine conditions
during the day. East to southeast flow will then increase on
Wednesday as this high shifts to the east and a warm front lifts
north towards the area. However, winds are expected to stay under 25
knots along the nearshore waters, and small craft advisories may not
be needed. Winds become southwest late Wednesday night ahead of a
cold front, which passes through on Thursday. Gusts up to 25 knots
are possible right along the shoreline areas of the nearshore
waters, with low level stability over the open waters holding gusts
generally under 20 knots.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1258 pm edt Mon may 20 2019
aviation...

steep low level lapse rates with cold advection will maintain high
MVFR lowVFR clouds through the afternoon hours along with westerly
winds gusts around 25 knots. Surface high pressure building in this
evening then allowing for a northwest to southeast clearing trend,
as winds become light and shift the north overnight. A warm front
over the northern ohio valley will fizzle out tomorrow, but some
mid high clouds expected to reach the southern TAF sites, otherwise
just a touch (few) of diurnalVFR CU expected with light northeast
winds as the surface high ridge holds.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings AOB below 5000 feet through the late evening.

* high confidence in westerly gusts AOA 25 knots this afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lhz421-422- 441.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening
for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt
this evening for lez444.

Discussion... Sc kdk
marine... ... .Sf
aviation... ..Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi73 min NW 18 G 21 50°F 1014.9 hPa (+2.7)
45163 40 mi33 min NW 12 G 14 51°F 51°F1 ft
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi33 min NW 4.1 G 13 51°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi20 minNW 1210.00 miOvercast52°F41°F66%1016.8 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi18 minNW 6 G 1510.00 miOvercast53°F39°F60%1016.6 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi18 minWNW 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast54°F41°F63%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S14
G19
S13
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S13S10SW10SW11W15W15W17W18
G26
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G23
W16
G25
W14W17W15
G21
W16W17W17W12NW11W13NW14NW12
1 day agoS6N11N10NE11N5N7N7N6NE5NE4NE6NE6NE8NE9NE10NE9NE8NE9NE6NE8NE5N3E8S7
2 days agoE5E7E6NE12NE9NE9E9E8E8E9E10E9NE6E6SE7E8SE7SE12SE12SE9SE65S5SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.