Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 6:41PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 12:42 PM EDT (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:40PMMoonset 5:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1001 Am Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the late morning and early afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201810232130;;614948 FZUS53 KDTX 231401 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-232130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231029
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
629 am edt Tue oct 23 2018

Aviation
Scattered to broken stratus strato-cu will settle south through the
area within northwest flow behind cold front. Cig category will
oscillate between MVFR lowerVFR kptk north with generallyVFR in
the 4-5kft range further south. Diurnal component to clouds should
bring thickest CIGS this afternoon into early evening. Wind gusts
post FROPA will top 20 knots during best mixing midday.

For dtw... Cold front will track south of terminal as forecast begins
early this morning. Winds will be northwesterly today with gusts
into the 20-25 knot range. Potential does exist for wind gusts to
near crosswind thresholds today as direction veers to 310 degrees.

Cigs AOB 5kft are expected, especially this afternoon early evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium confidence in cigs AOB 5kft after 16z today... Clearing
after 02z-04z this evening.

* low confidence in exceeding northwest crosswind threshold today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 332 am edt Tue oct 23 2018
discussion...

minimal changes to the forecast as weather remains quiet through the
work week. Currently in the process of having a cold front drop
through SE mi which will exit the region around 12z this morning.

This will largely be uneventful in terms of precipitation as the
preceding airmass is quiet dry. A jet streak entering the mid level
trough will result in the shortwave deepening overhead before
surging eastward as it exits the base of the trough. Still lack of
moisture will prevent precip from developing, except over the lakes
where lake moisture and deeper mixed layer will produce some
showers. Northwest flow in the wake of the front will usher in much
cooler air with 850mb temps falling from +3c ahead of the front to -
3c behind it. Solid lake effect cloud setup will keep the area
cloudy through the day with skies scattering out with the loss of
heating tonight. High pressure building in from the NW will help
clear us out. The exception could be across the east by lake huron
where northwesterly flow and proximity to the lingering trough could
keep clouds deeper into the night. High pressure and clear skies
will allow temps to fall to near freezing tonight.

Mid week period will be quiet as high pressure settles across the
area with cool dry airmass in place. Wednesday should be mostly
sunny but cool as reinforcing thermal trough slides through dropping
850mb temps even more to around -7c. Highs in the 40s across the
board with lows falling into the 20s. Minimal thermal recovery on
Thursday even as we slide into the western side of the surface ridge
allowing southwest flow and weak waa. Heights will start to increase
aloft as mid level shortwave ridge works into the region as well
but not to be realized during the daytime period.

Strong jet streak coming ashore within the northern stream of the
jet will force a longwave pattern change over the weekend. This wave
will carve out a broad trough over the eastern CONUS by Sunday while
phasing with a strengthening southern stream jetlet tracking across
the gulf coast states. Where these phase and the strength of a
potential storm lifting up the east coast will help determine what
happens across our local area. At this time will keep a chance pop
through most of the weekend to account for the broad trough, strong
jet, series of shortwaves advecting near the state, and moisture
wrapping in off the atlantic around the developing low. This trough
will ensure temperatures stay below normal through the end of the
month.

Marine...

a cold front will track south of the region as low pressure
continues east into southeast ontario early this morning. In the
wake of this front, northwest winds will gust consistently in the 25
to occasional 30 knot range over parts of the open waters of lake
huron today before edging down tonight as high pressure begins to
build in from the west. The limited duration and marginal nature of
this event does not support a gale warning. However, the northwest
flow will lead to building waves which will impact nearshore waters
today into early Wednesday. A small craft advisory has been issued
for these anticipated wave conditions as well as wind gusts to 25
knots during the day today. Winds will become light Wednesday night
and Thursday as another large area of high pressure builds into the
region.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for lhz421-441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi43 min NW 21 G 27 46°F 1019.3 hPa (+2.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi46 min WNW 18 G 25 46°F 1019.6 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi63 min NNW 13 G 20 46°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last
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NE10
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G31
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G36
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G25
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G14
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G18
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi50 minNW 15 G 1910.00 miOvercast48°F36°F63%1021.5 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi48 minNNW 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast49°F35°F60%1020.7 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi48 minNW 18 G 2110.00 miOvercast and Breezy48°F33°F58%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6W8SW10W10W7S5SW4SW7W9SW6SW7SW7W8W8NW7W8W8NW9NW11NW8NW17
G23
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1 day agoW9W9W9W11SW11
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SW9S6SW5S5SW4SW4S3S5S6S7S7S6SW7SW7SW7SW8SW7SW8SW5
2 days agoW23
G34
W9NW16
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G32
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G28
NW15
G31
NW16NW15NW11N10NW12NW10W9NW7W8W7W7W7W7W7W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.