Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:18PM Saturday February 23, 2019 4:30 PM EST (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:24PMMoonset 9:55AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 400 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm warning in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Light rain with Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales late in the morning, then becoming west gales to 40 knot gales with storm force gusts to 50 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. Light showers and light snow showers likely until late afternoon, then a chance of light snow showers late in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West gales to 35 knot gales with storm force gusts to 50 knots diminishing to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knot gales in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers early in the evening.
Monday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201902240400;;402823 FZUS53 KDTX 232100 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 400 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-240400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 232048
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
348 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Discussion
High wind warning is now in effect for all of southeast michigan
Sunday into Sunday night.

A strong mid level trough over the central plains will lift
northeastward through the great lakes tonight through Sunday. An
associated surface low will rapidly deepen over the next 24-36 hours
from 998mb this afternoon to around 978mb by 18z tomorrow as it
passes over eastern lake superior. Additional forcing and cold air
advection will come Sunday afternoon as a shortwave within the polar
jet phases with this broader trough. The pressure gradient with this
system will be very strong, in part due to the strength of the low
itself, but also due to a 1040mb high sliding into the northern
plains behind it. Models have been impressively consistent with
their outputs over the past couple days and good model agreement has
also been noted through this time increasing overall confidence in
the forecast.

That said, the system will impact us in multiple ways over the next
48 hours. First as the warm front occludes and lifts through
southern mi tonight, mid level lapse rates will improve with weak
instability aloft resulting in a period of showers and embedded
thunderstorms tonight. Showers will be possible through the evening
as a couple weak ribbons of theta E advect lift through the region
but the best chance will come between 04-10z with the moisture and
instability tied closest to the warm front.

The highest priority remains on the long duration high wind event
that will occur Sunday into Sunday night. As mentioned above, a high
wind warning will be issued to account for winds potentially over 60
mph. Impressive wind field will pass over the region first as the 50-
60kt low level jet lifts north through lower mi tonight. A stable
boundary layer should mitigate any issues at the surface but the
caveat to that will be if any convection gets strong enough to pulls
some higher wind gusts down. Around 09z the occluding warm front
will lift north veering winds to southerly. Further veering will
occur behind a cold front that will sweep east between 12-15z. This
will quickly ramp up winds as the mixed boundary layer begins to
deepen and tap into the stronger winds aloft. Model soundings show
winds around 60 knots down to around 5kft through the day so an
initial pop of winds with downward momentum transfer may reach 60+
miles per hour right behind the cold front in the morning. Diurnal
heating will bring about mixing depths around 4-6kft through the
afternoon which will keep the strong winds going into the evening
hours. Confidence is high that sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph with
gusts to 50 to 60 mph will exist Sunday afternoon and evening with a
few gusts in excess of 60 mph possible. This is a fairly uniform
wind field across all of lower mi thus the warning will cover all of
se mi. Though the loss of diurnal heating will allow the inversion
to lower later in the evening, strong winds to at least advisory
level will continue through most of the overnight. Model trends have
been to hold onto higher winds longer into the night with gusts of
30 to 40 mph likely into Monday morning.

Chance of lake effect snow showers will exist with cold advection
Sunday into Sunday night but only minor accumulations are expected
as moisture is fairly shallow and winds will be so strong they will
likely fracture the attempted snow bands as the try to develop. Warm
air in place early in the day will also lessen the effects as
coldest air doesn't arrive til the afternoon so precip may be a rain
show mix til the colder air arrives.

Return flow from a surface high pressure system centered across the
northern plains will aid in advecting dry low-level air across the
great lakes throughout Tuesday, bringing a round of dry weather as
temperatures hold in the upper-teens across the tri-cities and thumb
up into the mid-20s across the metro area. A chance for
precipitation will then be possible throughout Wednesday, however,
at this time too much uncertainty exists between long-range model
runs to accurately describe coverage and ptype. Latest ECMWF run
sets up a frontal boundary across the ohio valley, with an area of
weak overrunning noted across western michigan into the southern
metro region, which would provide the chance to see light snow
throughout the day. Latest GFS run much more aggressive with waa
throughout Wednesday, allowing widespread snow to develop Wednesday
morning, with a possible transition to a wintry mix by the
afternoon. Chance pops will remain in the forecast until additional
convergence is noted between model runs. Otherwise, lack of
significant forcing will keep conditions relatively dry through the
end of the week as temperatures hold in the 20s to lower 30s, with a
slight warm-up noted Friday into Saturday as a warm front pushes
into the region. Surge of warmer air and preceding shortwave trough
will provide the chance for precipitation late Friday into Saturday.

Marine
An intense low pressure system on pace to track across the northern
great lakes tonight and Sunday. A period of moderate southeast winds
will develop in advance of this system tonight. This trajectory will
bring gusts near 30 knots across portions of northern lake huron
during this time. A pronounced increase in winds from the west-
southwest then expected on Sunday in the wake of this low. A long
duration high wind event lasting into Sunday night, with sustained
west-southwest winds of 30 to 35 knots gusting 40 to 50 knots. Peak
gusts reaching in excess of 50 knots at times, warranting the
issuance of a storm warning for all of lake huron and lake st.

Clair. Gale force gusts likely persist into Monday over portions of
northern and central lake huron, before gradually diminishing late
Monday and Monday night as the gradient eases. A more modest
northwest wind for the middle of next week as high pressure drifts
into the region.

Hydrology
An intense winter storm on pace to track across the northern great
lakes tonight and Sunday. Deeper moisture will advance into
southeast michigan tonight in advance of this system. This will
bring a period of widespread rainfall, with the potential for
thunderstorms. Total rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.50 inches
are expected, with some localized higher amounts possible within any
thunderstorm activity. In addition, the warmer conditions will
contribute to additional runoff from melting of the snowpack. While
some rises on area rivers and streams are expected, significant
flooding is not expected.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1209 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
aviation...

an intensifying low pressure system on pace to impact the southeast
michigan airspace tonight into Sunday. Extensive mid cloud defining
conditions today, with CIGS gradually lowering with time going
forward this afternoon and evening as moisture deepens in advance of
this system. Coverage of showers increases overnight in developing
ifr lifr conditions, with a window for embedded thunder centered
04z-09z. Strengthening wind field will first lead to a period of low
level wind shear above a 10-15kt southeast gradient tonight. The
ensuing post-frontal mixing favorably timed during the daylight
period will then translate into a long duration high wind event on
Sunday. West-southwest wind gusts reaching in excess of 45 knots at
times during the afternoon and evening periods.

For dtw... CIGS gradually lowering into the evening, with increasing
likelihood for sub-5000 ft ceiling heights to emerge by sunset.

Increasing shower coverage W possible embedded t-storms between 04z
and 09z. Potential for lifr CIGS during this time. Strong west-
southwest winds expected Sunday - gusting over 45 knots at times.

Winds from a 230-240 direction will keep cross wind considerations in
play during this time.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for CIGS below 5000 ft late this afternoon into the
evening. High tonight.

* low for thunderstorm occurrence tonight.

* high for precipitation type to remain rain through Sunday morning.

* medium for west-southwest winds reaching crosswind thresholds
Sunday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... High wind warning from 7 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... Storm warning from 10 am Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for lhz361>363-
462>464.

Storm warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... Storm warning from 7 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Low water advisory from 7 am Sunday to 1 am est Monday for lez444.

Gale warning from 7 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for lez444.

Discussion... Drk am
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi31 min ENE 16 G 18 32°F 1015.2 hPa (-3.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi51 min NE 19 G 20 30°F 1016.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi51 min ENE 8.9 G 13 31°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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SE15
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G30
SE19
G23
S15
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S9
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G22
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W10
G19
W12
G15
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G18
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G20
W14
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G23
W14
G18
W10
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi38 minENE 116.00 miOvercast with Haze35°F27°F72%1015.7 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi35 minENE 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast34°F27°F78%1014.9 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi36 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE5E5E7NE4NE6NE4NE6E5E5E5E4E5E6E7E6E5E5E7E7E8E8E10
1 day agoW15
G27
W17
G25
W21W20
G26
W16
G24
SW17W17SW15SW9W9W8W5--NW5NW5SW4W4SW5W5W4CalmCalmS3W3
2 days ago--E12E13E12E13E12E13SE14E10SE7S7S8S11SW14SW16--W24
G35
SW14
G20
W15
G21
W19
G24
W20SW14W22
G29
W20
G30

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.