Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pulaski, NY
May 8, 2024 11:33 AM EDT (15:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:46 AM Moonset 8:28 PM |
LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 342 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 081417 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1017 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of today, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Steady showers along a warm frontal boundary has exited our forecast area to the north and east late this morning.
Meanwhile, a 40 knot westerly flow at 850mb has mixed out the remaining low moisture across the rest of Western NY resulting in sunny skies late this morning. The dry weather will hold through early afternoon, with warm and breezy conditions with wind gusts to 40 mph.
A secondary shortwave trough will move across northern NY this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly east of Lake Ontario but also along a convergence zone south of Lake Ontario. Most of the region will be post-frontal with low chances of thunderstorms, however greater instability will be just to the southeast of the forecast area and coupled with a strong wind field, there may be a few stronger storms late this afternoon into this evening. A few showers or storms are also possible along a convergence boundary south of Lake Ontario late afternoon and early evening.
The shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight and showers and any thunderstorms will diminish and move east of the region. Dry conditions are expected across the forecast area overnight.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An elongated mid level trough will remain in place Thursday through Thursday night from the Canadian Maritimes to the Great Lakes, with an east-west oriented frontal zone stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic. Latest model guidance has continued the southward trend in the frontal position, with a wave of low pressure moving east along the boundary now taking a farther south track Thursday through Thursday night. The farther south track will yield a much improved forecast for Thursday, with mainly dry weather expected through at least the first half of the day. Deeper moisture and frontogenesis will gradually increase from southwest to northeast as the frontal wave moves across PA, bringing increasing chances of showers in the afternoon for areas south of Lake Ontario.
Rain chances will continue Thursday night as another wave of low pressure moves east along the front. The best chance of more widespread rain will be found from the Southern Tier into Central NY in closer proximity to deeper moisture and forcing, with rain chances trending lower for areas close to the Canadian border.
Friday through Friday night, the longwave trough will continue to carve out over the eastern US as a series of shortwaves dig through the Great Lakes and New England. DPVA and height falls will maintain an area of forcing and rain downstream of the trough axis, with a weak surface low developing in response to the forcing aloft over PA and the Mid Atlantic. The GFS continues to be the farthest north with this feature and would produce widespread rain across the region. The NAM/GEM/ECMWF have all trended farther southeast, keeping the best chance of organized rain from the Finger Lakes into Central and Eastern NY, with lower rain chances in our region.
Trended POPS and QPF down for Friday through Friday night, especially for areas near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday through Friday as persistent low level northeast flow funnels cooler air out of Canada.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Overall, the pattern will remain unsettled over the weekend through early next week, although the finer synoptic scale day to day details remain uncertain. A deep mid level trough from the Great Lakes to New England over the weekend will gradually deamplify early next week, although shortwaves will continue to traverse the US/Canadian border.
Saturday should start mainly dry, with one system moving east off the New England coast and the next moving through the central Great Lakes. The upstream shortwave and associated surface low will then move over or just south of the region Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with another round of showers. The trough axis will gradually move off the New England coast Sunday, with rain chances trending down from west to east. Temperatures will remain quite cool over the weekend with clouds and cool temperatures aloft. Highs both days will reach the 55-60 degree range in most areas.
Monday through Tuesday another shortwave will move from the Great Lakes into New England, maintaining a chance of a few showers.
Temperatures aloft will start to recover as mid level heights gradually rise, allowing temperatures to trend to near or a little above average by Tuesday.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR flight conditions for western NY, with lingering MVFR cigs east of Lake Ontario. Winds will ramp up and southwest winds 15-25kts with gusts up to 30kts are possible late this morning through early this afternoon from KIAG to KROC. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible east- southeast of Lake Ontario this afternoon into the evening. Flight conditions will worsen from north to south tonight with MVFR/IFR conditions at KART by 00z and at KROC/KBUF by 6z tonight.
Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
WSW winds will then increase today, particularly across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub- advisory conditions can be expected.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog this morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1017 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of today, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Steady showers along a warm frontal boundary has exited our forecast area to the north and east late this morning.
Meanwhile, a 40 knot westerly flow at 850mb has mixed out the remaining low moisture across the rest of Western NY resulting in sunny skies late this morning. The dry weather will hold through early afternoon, with warm and breezy conditions with wind gusts to 40 mph.
A secondary shortwave trough will move across northern NY this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly east of Lake Ontario but also along a convergence zone south of Lake Ontario. Most of the region will be post-frontal with low chances of thunderstorms, however greater instability will be just to the southeast of the forecast area and coupled with a strong wind field, there may be a few stronger storms late this afternoon into this evening. A few showers or storms are also possible along a convergence boundary south of Lake Ontario late afternoon and early evening.
The shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight and showers and any thunderstorms will diminish and move east of the region. Dry conditions are expected across the forecast area overnight.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An elongated mid level trough will remain in place Thursday through Thursday night from the Canadian Maritimes to the Great Lakes, with an east-west oriented frontal zone stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic. Latest model guidance has continued the southward trend in the frontal position, with a wave of low pressure moving east along the boundary now taking a farther south track Thursday through Thursday night. The farther south track will yield a much improved forecast for Thursday, with mainly dry weather expected through at least the first half of the day. Deeper moisture and frontogenesis will gradually increase from southwest to northeast as the frontal wave moves across PA, bringing increasing chances of showers in the afternoon for areas south of Lake Ontario.
Rain chances will continue Thursday night as another wave of low pressure moves east along the front. The best chance of more widespread rain will be found from the Southern Tier into Central NY in closer proximity to deeper moisture and forcing, with rain chances trending lower for areas close to the Canadian border.
Friday through Friday night, the longwave trough will continue to carve out over the eastern US as a series of shortwaves dig through the Great Lakes and New England. DPVA and height falls will maintain an area of forcing and rain downstream of the trough axis, with a weak surface low developing in response to the forcing aloft over PA and the Mid Atlantic. The GFS continues to be the farthest north with this feature and would produce widespread rain across the region. The NAM/GEM/ECMWF have all trended farther southeast, keeping the best chance of organized rain from the Finger Lakes into Central and Eastern NY, with lower rain chances in our region.
Trended POPS and QPF down for Friday through Friday night, especially for areas near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday through Friday as persistent low level northeast flow funnels cooler air out of Canada.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Overall, the pattern will remain unsettled over the weekend through early next week, although the finer synoptic scale day to day details remain uncertain. A deep mid level trough from the Great Lakes to New England over the weekend will gradually deamplify early next week, although shortwaves will continue to traverse the US/Canadian border.
Saturday should start mainly dry, with one system moving east off the New England coast and the next moving through the central Great Lakes. The upstream shortwave and associated surface low will then move over or just south of the region Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with another round of showers. The trough axis will gradually move off the New England coast Sunday, with rain chances trending down from west to east. Temperatures will remain quite cool over the weekend with clouds and cool temperatures aloft. Highs both days will reach the 55-60 degree range in most areas.
Monday through Tuesday another shortwave will move from the Great Lakes into New England, maintaining a chance of a few showers.
Temperatures aloft will start to recover as mid level heights gradually rise, allowing temperatures to trend to near or a little above average by Tuesday.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR flight conditions for western NY, with lingering MVFR cigs east of Lake Ontario. Winds will ramp up and southwest winds 15-25kts with gusts up to 30kts are possible late this morning through early this afternoon from KIAG to KROC. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible east- southeast of Lake Ontario this afternoon into the evening. Flight conditions will worsen from north to south tonight with MVFR/IFR conditions at KART by 00z and at KROC/KBUF by 6z tonight.
Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
WSW winds will then increase today, particularly across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub- advisory conditions can be expected.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog this morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45215 | 19 mi | 37 min | 54°F | 49°F | 1 ft | |||
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 19 mi | 45 min | W 14G | 63°F | 29.50 | 57°F | ||
| 45135 - Prince Edward Pt | 39 mi | 33 min | W 16G | 50°F | 45°F | 1 ft | 29.53 | |
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 78 mi | 33 min | W 16G | 69°F | 29.57 | |||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 79 mi | 45 min | 69°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY | 19 sm | 39 min | W 15G27 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 57°F | 57% | 29.53 |
Montague, NY,
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