Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pulaski, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:48PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:46 PM EST (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:36AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 337 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow. Waves in ice free areas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Rain showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LOZ045 Expires:201802221615;;360181 FZUS51 KBUF 220837 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 337 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-221615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pulaski, NY
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location: 43.57, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 222115
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
415 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
Mainly dry weather will prevail through tonight... Before another
low pressure system brings another round of milder temperatures and
mainly rain to our area on Friday. Above normal temperatures will
then continue through the weekend... With yet another storm system
bringing another round of widespread rain and windy conditions
Saturday night and Sunday.

Near term through Friday
As of 235 pm... The bulk of the steadier snow has come to an end...

with any leftover spotty light snow still expected to end altogether
by late afternoon. With this in mind... The winter weather advisory
for the southern tier has been cancelled.

Tonight our region will lie between systems... With surface high
pressure over southern quebec drifting eastward to maine and the
canadian maritimes. The high will provide our region with quiet
and mainly dry weather... With an associated incursion of drier air
and subsidence also helping to bring at least some partial clearing
to areas north of the nys thruway... While further south lower clouds
will remain intact thanks to a swath of lingering low level moisture.

Very late tonight chances for precipitation will begin to slowly
increase across the southern tier out ahead of an approaching warm
front... Though at this point the coverage of such looks to remain
rather limited through daybreak... With surface temperatures across
this also simultaneously rising above freezing... And thereby
resulting in whatever precip does occur likely falling in the form
of plain light rain. Expect mainly evening lows to range from the
teens across the north country to the 25-30 range across most areas
south of lake ontario... With readings then rising overnight as the
low level flow veers to southeasterly and warm air advection
commences.

On Friday yet another broad and loosely organized low pressure
system will bodily track northeastward across the central great
lakes and to the ontario-quebec border... And in the process will
push its attendant warm front northeastward across our region.

Ongoing warm air advection overrunning out ahead of this system
will result in widespread cloud cover and light precipitation
overspreading our region from southwest to northeast once again...

for which categorical pops remain in play.

With respect to ptype on Friday... The combination of the somewhat
slower arrival of the precip and the steady warm air advection
regime should result in the bulk of the precipitation falling in
the form of plain rain across the majority of the region... With
just a brief localized potential for some spotty light freezing
rain or sleet across interior sections at the onset. At this
point the best potential for such appears to lie across the
north country... Though again even here this should be rather
brief and localized... And therefore not enough for a winter
weather advisory at the present time.

As for temperatures... The ongoing steady warming of our airmass
should result in highs climbing into the lower to mid 40s across
areas east of lake ontario Friday... While the remainder of the
region should see readings warm into the mid to upper 40s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
The main large scale feature for the weekend will be the evolution
of the upper level low that is moving south into the northern
sierras and great basin. This feature will spawn a surface low in
typical lee cyclogenesis fashion over the western plains by Saturday
morning. The low will continue to deepen as is moves NE across lake
superior Sunday morning. While this will be an impressive system
from a synoptic point of view, it doesn't appear to have extreme
characteristics worthy of local extreme effects - namely excessive
high winds for wny. Here's a breakdown of timing and impacts for
the weekend:
Friday night... A low will be moving ene across S central quebec with
any leftover rain quickly moving east into northern ny and new
england. This will leave wny and cny dry for most if not all of the
night.

Saturday... Expect a dry start as high pressure north of the region
moves east. From a profile stand viewpoint, there should be some
cirrus and possibly some low clouds overhead with a dry layer in
between at the start of the day. Warm air advection moving toward
the pa line will increase moisture within the dry layer in the
afternoon. This may may finally saturate the column over the
southern tier, perhaps N toward the thruway by the end of the day.

Will leave a chance of rain in the forecast, although current model
qpf appears to be overdone when considering the profile forecasts.

Saturday night... This is where there is high confidence for
measurable precipitation for all areas, moving in from sw-ne across
all of wny overnight. Mixed precipitation or just freezing rain is
a concern for the st lawrence valley overnight with at least
initially a supply of subfreezing air from downstream on a NE flow
sneaking in under the warmer air aloft, but this should change over
to rain by Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts should be highest from
about kbuf through kfzy with over 0.5", but less to the south and
east.

Another impact may be downslope winds NW of the chautauqua ridge and
tug hill. These winds often have a hard time mixing to the surface
while its raining though. Localized advisory level winds are at
least possible however.

Finally, on Sunday... The main impact is high wind potential. The
main surface low is almost too far from wny to have significant
impacts with is MAX deepening occuring prior to the trough passage
Sunday morning. Winds aloft are strongest in the warm advective
pattern (Saturday night) and decrease with time on Sunday as cold
advection moves in. The airmass should rapidly dry out with good
mixing after the cold front, but lapse rates don't compare to
archived model profile forecasts of extreme event from last march
2017. The NAM in particular, although at the end of the model run,
shows a stout cap down to 2000' for Sunday after which, if it were
to verify, would ensure advisory-only winds. The GFS is a little
more impressive, but still only grazes warning thresholds via
momentum transfer, and mainly areas closest and NE of lake erie.

Current forecasts follow this idea, with high end advisory winds in
the forecast. As is always the case however, the forecast can,
should, and will change as the event approaches.

Finally of note will be temperatures, which should briefly spike
into the 50s across wny. However, unlike the recent warmup, there
will likely only be a tiny window between the ending rain and
imminent winds for one to enjoy the spring conditions.

Sunday night will be uneventful in comparison, with a relaxing wind
field and temperatures dropping back to normal with continued cold
air advection and a drying airmass.

Long term Monday through Thursday
High pressure will drift across the region to start the work week
with temperatures running above climo(+5f - +10f), with daily highs
in the 40s and nighttime lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Precipitation chances will increase into Thursday as a wave ejects
from the four corners region to the great lakes.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
For the rest of the afternoon... Ceilings will largely remain
ifr to MVFR across the higher terrain south of kbuf kroc owing
to lingering copious low level moisture. From kbuf-kroc-kfzy
northward... Conditions will be predominantlyVFR... Except for
some lingering patchy MVFR ceilings along and inland from the
south shore of lake ontario.

Tonight a mix of ifr to MVFR ceilings will persist across the
higher terrain south of kbuf kroc. Elsewhere generalVFR conditions
will prevail... Though some MVFR ceilings may work back northward
to kbuf kiag late as the low level flow turns southeasterly out
ahead of an approaching warm front. The front may also bring the
chance of a little light rain to areas near the ny pa border late
tonight... Though at this point it appears that surface temperatures
in this area will be rising above freezing by that time.

On Friday... The aforementioned warm front will lift northward
across our region... While also spreading rain and lower ceilings
across the area from southwest to northeast. This will result in
flight conditions lowering to mostly ifr across the higher terrain...

and to MVFR across the lower elevations. At the onset of the rain...

some very brief localized freezing rain or sleet cannot be ruled
out away from the TAF sites (with the greatest potential for this
lying across the north country)... Though at this point the chances
for such still appear to be pretty low.

Finally... Since the kjhw observation has not been reporting for
several days... We have continued with a rarely used nil TAF for
kjhw. Safety concerns have played a major role in this decision...

especially given the continued potential for low erratic ceilings
at this particular site.

Outlook...

Friday night... Gradual improvement to MVFRVFR with any lingering
rain showers ending. Some llws possible.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with additional periods of rain developing...

which may be mixed with a little snow or freezing rain across the
north country at the onset. Llws also becoming likely.

Sunday... Rain ending with improvement toVFR... Though also turning
rather windy.

Monday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR... With a chance of rain snow showers across
the north country.

Marine
Moderate northeasterlies across the lower lakes region will veer
to easterly and then southeasterly tonight as high pressure over
southern ontario quebec slides eastward to maine and the canadian
maritimes. At this point... Winds and waves are still expected to
remain below advisory levels through tonight.

On Friday winds will veer further to southerly (and increase a bit
on lake ontario) as low pressure passes by to our northwest... Though
the offshore orientation will help to keep the highest waves confined
to canadian waters.

In the wake of this system... High pressure will briefly build back
across the lower great lakes on Saturday... Before a strong area of
low pressure tracks northeastward across the great lakes on Sunday.

This latter system should bring at least a round of higher end
advisory-worthy conditions... With gale force winds possible.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Zaff
long term... Church
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 19 mi47 min NE 5.1 G 8 1037.5 hPa (-0.9)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 78 mi47 min ENE 15 G 18 32°F 1038.6 hPa (-1.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 79 mi47 min 33°F 1038 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY18 mi53 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast35°F30°F82%1037.9 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W7W9W9W9W5W4W4W3CalmCalmNE3NE5N6NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N3N3
1 day agoSE3SE3Calm4CalmCalmS10S10S9S11S10S8S8S9S10S10SW10NW14NW12W10W13W13W11NW14
2 days agoSE4SE534SE4SE3S5S10S9S3S5SE4SE4CalmSE3SE3SE3S3SE3SE3SE5SE4CalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.