Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:39 AM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1019 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 280548 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 148 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will cross the region today, with several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. A nearby frontal boundary will continue to bring a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday, but a warm weather pattern will last much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
There are a few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning east of Lake Ontario. Elsewhere, it's mostly clear and warm with temperatures hovering around 60F on the lake plains due to downsloping.

A warm frontal segment and convectively augmented vorticity maxima will move from west to east across the top of a mid- level ridge axis which is across the region. Overall poor model agreement handling this convective precipitation, which lowers forecast confidence in timing and location of any showers today.
In general chances will increase this morning and last through around mid-afternoon which is when the wave is forecast to move through. There will be ample surface based and instability to support a few thunderstorms and brief downpours today. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s with the warmest weather across the Western Southern Tier which will see some clearing later this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. A ribbon of higher than normal PWATs will be on the western side of the ridge, from the Lower Mississippi Valley to southern Ontario. A cold front will likely be stalled and stretched from the Niagara Frontier to the Finger Lakes region. A north-northeast flow on the cool side of the boundary will inhibit mixing of warmer temperatures aloft. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s with locations south of Lake Ontario staying in the low 60s. The stable airmass will keep mostly dry weather from north central NY to Interstate 90. It will be a different story on the warm side of the boundary where temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s, mainly from the Buffalo Southtowns to the Finger Lakes and south across the western Southern Tier. Surface based instability will increase through the afternoon and with help from the close proximity to the axis of higher moisture, showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along and east of the lake breeze boundary.

The upper level ridge axis will move east and the axis of higher PWATS will move into the region overnight. Based off BUF sounding climatology, forecast PWATS will be near the maximum for late April.
The cold front across the region Monday will move north as a warm front and as low-level winds increase from the south. There is growing confidence that additional showers will develop on this warm front. Upstream convection from earlier will approach the region overnight. A convectively induced shortwave trough across southern Ontario may drive showers and thunderstorms into north central overnight. Mild conditions expected Monday night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

A cold front will be just to the west Tuesday morning. The plume of higher moisture content will spread out and decrease as the upper level ridge flattens across the Northeast Tuesday. Scattered showers will be ongoing across portions of the region, especially around and east of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning. The front will move into western NY Tuesday morning and move east through the afternoon. The current timing of the front looks like areas east of the Genesee Valley will have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is low on the amount of instability Tuesday due to the uncertainty in cloud cover and showers from Tuesday morning. Shear will be in place east of the boundary so if thunderstorms do develop there is a low chance they could be strong. Warm Tuesday with highs from the upper 60s to the low 70s, mid to upper 70s possible across valley locations in the Finger Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will end across western NY by Tuesday evening and east of Lake Ontario by late Tuesday night.
Thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy rainfall but flash flooding is not expected at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak shortwave ridge moves through the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night which will likely bring dry weather to the region
After that
models shift or even flatten out the ridge aloft by Thursday, and also depict moisture increasing across region. Even with moisture increasing areawide shower and storm potential will all depend on the various advertised subtle features embedded within the flow aloft
For now
have kept chance PoPs (30-50%) beginning Thursday afternoon through the Friday. Beyond Friday, confidence further decreases with little consensus to either a wet or dry forecast for the weekend
Eitherway
it does appear like a mild week is on tap with temperatures remaining well above normal with highs in the 60s Wednesday then climbing into the 70s for all locales.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LLWS through mid-morning due to a 40-45 knot southwesterly LLJ which will not mix to the surface. Mainly VFR at TAF sites, however there will be some IFR cigs across parts of the Southern Tier early this morning.

A warm frontal segment will move ENE across the area today. This will produce some showers with scattered thunderstorms. Fairly widespread MVFR cigs expected with this, with brief/localized IFR vsby in heavier downpours and thunderstorms possible.
Coverage expected to be very sparse and brief so did not include this in TAFs.

Frontal boundary will meander south tonight, resulting in lower cigs and possibly fog tonight. IFR flight conditions are likely to develop along this boundary, with areas of vsby 1SM or less possible at times. Mainly impacting KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART with KJHW remaining south of the boundary.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
A general southerly flow across the Lower Great Lakes will weaken some while turning more southwesterly today. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria. This being said...a few thunderstorms will become possible today with locally higher winds and waves possible.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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