Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM Moonrise 5:34 AM   Moonset 9:21 PM

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FXUS65 KBOI 081530 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 930 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

DISCUSSION
The northeasterly flow aloft persists over the area into Thursday, influenced by the upper-level low positioned over the Northern Plains. This will maintain overcast to broken clouds in the morning, along with isolated showers. However, anticipate some clearing of the skies later this afternoon.

Web cameras capture snow showers above 4000 feet in the West Central and Boise Mountains this morning, with Bogus Basin receiving a light dusting of snow. Radar shows increased activity transitioning from the mountains to the valleys, boosting confidence in showers continuing southwest into the Western Snake Plain later this morning into early afternoon.
These showers are likely to produce minimal rainfall.

Winds are expected to be lighter compared to yesterday, though breezy conditions are still anticipated today, especially east of Boise from Mountain Home through Glenns Ferry.

An update to the forecast has been issued, with higher probabilities of precipitation across much of Southwest Idaho for the remainder of the morning into the afternoon. Overall, the forecast remains in good shape.

AVIATION
VFR. Mid and high clouds decreasing through the day.
Low chance (25%) of light showers at KTWF/KJER. Sfc winds: W-N 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, except 15-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt from vicinity KMUO SE to KJER/KTWF. Winds at 10k ft MSL: N 15-30 kt, becoming NE 10-25 kt by 09/00Z.

KBOI...VFR with decreasing mid and high clouds. Virga/very light showers through 08/18Z. Sfc winds: W-NW 5-15 kt this morning, becoming 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
Today through Friday night
A large upper level low to our east, combined with ridging off the coast, will give us northerly flow today. There will be enough moisture pushed west by the upper low to keep low PoPs (15-30%) over our eastern fringe, but any precipitation will be light and will end by this evening. Temps will be 5-10 degrees below normal today due to yesterday's cold front. The ridge off the coast will build inland mostly to our north Thursday and remain in control of our weather through the remainder of the short term period, providing us with mostly dry and progressively warmer weather. There a small chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms in/near Twin Falls County Thursday afternoon as the last of the moisture is pushed south out of the area. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal Thursday, then 5-10 above normal Friday. Some parts of the lower Treasure Valley will likely (30-80% chance) hit 80 Friday.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday
The upper ridge will slide over us and then move to our south Saturday into Sunday, allowing weak westerly flow to move back into our area. Monday through Wednesday, our upper flow shifts to northwest. We will remain warm (5-10 degrees above normal) through Tuesday, and most likely still be a little above normal Wednesday. Dry weather is expected, except there is a slight chance of showers in southeast Owyhee and southern Twin Falls counties Monday afternoon. The long term models are in better agreement than we typically see, so this is a relatively high-confidence forecast.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
OR...None.

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