Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:58 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 827 Pm Pdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Moderate west winds and seas will persist this evening. A front will move through the waters early Monday morning with stronger west winds and low end small craft advisory conditions into Tuesday morning. A low with some high and steep swells will then move into the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. A thermal trough is anticipated to build briefly Wednesday with northerly winds increasing south of cape blanco.

FXUS66 KMFR 290550 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 904 PM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Updated AVIATION Discussion

DISCUSSION
The forecast is on track for this evening. Radar indicates some light showers over Douglas County as well as over the Cascades and around Mount Shasta. Overnight temperatures will remain above freezing for areas west of the Cascades tonight.

A cold front will bring precipitation to west side areas starting on Monday morning, with some showers possible over northern Klamath and Lake counties as well. Snowfall will be limited to Cascades peaks with amounts looking to remain below advisory thresholds.
While substantial road accumulation is not currently expected, snow showers can still lower visibility or locally slick conditions. Extra caution is advised for anyone traveling over the Cascades through the day Monday.

Please see the previous discussion for more details about the short- and long-term forecasts. -TAD



AVIATION
29/00Z TAFs...VFR levels continue across most of northern California and southern Oregon this morning, with isolated MVFR ceilings possible along the Oregon coast or over elevated terrain.

An approaching front will bring rainfall across areas west of the Cascades on Monday morning, with occasional showers possible over northern Klamath and Lake counties. The combination of 3500 to 4000 foot snow levels and westerly flow aloft is expected to limit snow showers to over the Cascades. These rain or snow showers can locally lower visibilities and ceilings as well as obscure elevated terrain.
Activity will decrease through Monday afternoon and evening. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Sunday, April 28, 2024...Weak high pressure southwest of the waters will result in light to moderate west winds and moderate seas this evening. A front will move through the waters early Monday morning with stronger west winds and low end small craft advisory conditions into Tuesday morning. A low with some high and steep swells will then move into the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. A thermal trough is anticipated to build briefly Wednesday into Wednesday night with northerly winds increasing south of Cape Blanco. Calm seas and weak winds are likely Thursday into Friday.

-DW

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 442 PM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024/

SHORT TERM
Tonight 4/28 through Monday night 4/29
Satellite imagery is showing some cloud cover across portions of southern Oregon and northern California with radar showing some light showers in northern Douglas County moving into Lane County. Expect a relatively benign rest of the afternoon and evening.

Then, the next front swings into the Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Monday morning and brings the next dose of precipitation with it. Snow levels will be lower around 3500 feet or so, but precipitation amounts will largely be light with the heavies amounts being focused in the Cascades north of highway 140. Still, snowfall amounts are expected relatively light with the highest amounts of 2 to 5 inches possible for Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, and Willamette Pass. Meanwhile, Siskiyou Summit on I-5 might see a dusting of snow with highway 97 east of the Cascades seeing less than an inch possible.

Cloud cover will linger and will heavily influence temperatures.
This will keep afternoon high temperatures low, and could allow for overnight lows to stay moderately warmer. Despite clearing skies, we're not expecting a freeze tonight for the Illinois Valley (15 percent chance or less). However with the next cold front coming through, the chances of a freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning increase to 60 percent, but cloud cover may inhibit freezing temperatures. Have issued a freeze watch for Monday for portions of the Illinois Valley. Please see the NPWMFR for more details. -Schaaf

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday, April 30 - May 5, 2024...
A cool spring weather pattern will continue into Tuesday as WNW flow aloft brings yet another upper air disturbance into the PacNW from the Gulf of Alaska. Some cold/frosty spots are possible in the morning in the valleys west of the Cascades, primarily south of the Umpqua Divide. As the upper trough moves across northern Oregon, gusty breezes will develop Tuesday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades. We'll remain on the southern fringes of this system, with highest PoPs (for showers) across the north. There is a fairly high probability of precipitation (50-80% chance) from the coast to Douglas County and over to the Cascades north of Crater Lake.
Amounts appear to be on the light side again, generally 0.10-0.20 for the Coos Coast Ranges and along the Lane/Douglas county border with maybe a couple of inches of snow above 4500 feet north of Crater Lake. South of the Umpqua Divide, precip chances diminish quickly to below 20% Tuesday, though an isolated shower/sprinkles cannot be ruled out. The upper trough will exit to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday, so precip chances drop to almost nil. Another cold night is expected, so frost/freeze potential will again be in play for the west side valleys. The potential for frost (lows 33- 36F) is highest (50-80% chance) for a few hours in the typically colder locations (Illinois/Applegate Valley/Grants Pass areas) with freezing conditions (<=32F) possible (20-30% chance) in the Illinois Valley as well.

Heights rise on Wednesday as the upper trough continues to shift to the east, resulting in at least partial sunshine with a dry and slightly milder afternoon (high temps back closer to seasonal normals). However, yet another upper trough coming out of the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday night will skim by to our north on Thursday. As has been the case for the last 3 days, models are showing most of the precip with this system staying well to our north, but a 20-30% chance of showers persists for areas along the coast and across northern Douglas County. Modest warming will continue with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s west of the Cascades and generally in the mid 60s over the East Side.

Uncertainty increases late next week into the weekend. The majority of models/ensembles show at least brief upper ridging again on Friday with approximately another 5 degrees of warming (compared to Thursday). Then, guidance is showing a potentially more substantial trough moving in Friday night into next weekend with higher PoPs and lower temps, but confidence in the specifics of timing/strength right now remains low. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:51 AM PDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:10 AM PDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:20 PM PDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:36 PM PDT     3.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Reedsport
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:58 AM PDT     6.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:57 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:31 AM PDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:26 PM PDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:57 PM PDT     2.86 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Medford, OR,