Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 4:02 PM   Moonset 2:53 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 253 Pm Pdt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Today - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. A slight chance of rain this morning. Tonight - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 2 ft at 13 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Mon - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 6 seconds, nw 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Mon night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 5 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Tue - N wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. A chance of showers. Tue night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 5 seconds, nw 5 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of showers. Wed - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 5 seconds, nw 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 5 seconds, nw 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Thu - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 5 seconds, nw 6 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 4 seconds, nw 5 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds.

PZZ300 253 Pm Pdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A strong thermal trough along the coast will continue to produce north gales and very steep wind driven seas through Monday evening south of cape blanco. Conditions will be less severe but still hazardous to small craft north of cape blanco.

FXUS66 KMFR 192151 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 251 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Wednesday morning...There is currently a batch of mid clouds moving southward from northwestern Oregon, and this is bringing partly sunny skies to Douglas and Coos counties. Temperatures right now are in the upper 50s and low 60s west side with 40s and low 50s east side. Tonight will be cooler for more west side valleys with low 40s while elsewhere will be comparable to tonight with low 40s at the coast and 20s to low 30s east of the Cascades. There will be a concern for areas of frost with temperatures falling to the mid-30s outside of the Umpqua Basin and above 1,500 feet. However, this is looking too isolated and cloud cover that could stay in the evening will make it harder to see widespread frost. There have been breezy northerly winds this afternoon, and afternoon breezes will be a trend that continues through the start of the workweek.

The main area of focus will be towards the end of the short term (Tuesday into Wednesday) as an upper level low moving along the Canadian coast swings into the PNW with a cold front. This will begin to increase rain chances in southern Oregon starting Tuesday afternoon. Although the PoPs will increase in coverage through the day to all southern Oregon counties, the main areas of focus will be the Coos County Coast and the Cascades. Even so, totals are looking to be light at the coast with a ~20% probability to see 0.05" at North Bend Wednesday. The southern ORegon Cascades will see the most with near 0.25" possible. Northern California will continue seeing dry conditions although partly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be present Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is a healthy swath of 85% to near 100% relative humitidities between 700 and 500 mb passing by Wednesday, and this will help keep the moisture into the mid-levels. However, LIs are still not favorable and CAPEs are focused in eastern Oregon, so the initiation of thunderstorms has been capped at below 15%. Rain chances will die down later Wednesday, and more details on the rest of the week will be found in the long term discussion. -Hermansen

LONG TERM
Wednesday morning through Saturday night.

Temperatures trend roughly 5 degrees lower on Wednesday as some of the cooler air filters in behind the cold front. The upper level low appears to sit right over central Oregon. With very little shear, limited potential instability and cold air aloft, the weather pattern suggests pop up showers are most likely. The NBM keeps a low 10 to 20 percent chance of precipitation across sections of the forecast area on Wednesday with the best chances east of the Cascades and around Douglas County. In addition, there is about a 10% chance of cloud to ground lightning. Given the time of year and the pattern, this seems reasonable and we wouldn't be surprised with some lightning activity in the region, although storms will likely be weak.

Thursday has a high probability of being a break in the action with an upper level low departing the area. The NBM still is holding on to some low probability of precipitation chances across Oregon.
Perhaps there are a few ensemble members that are keeping the upper level low around, or perhaps the next low is arriving a little earlier.

In any case, the most likely solution is another upper level approaching from the north on Friday with precipitation chances increasing. The whole forecast area has a 10 to 15 percent chance of precipitation on Friday afternoon and evening. Some ensemble members are taking a bit longer to bring the low into southern Oregon and northern California, whereas a smaller majority has it here on Friday.

Overall, an active weather pattern with minimal weather impacts is anticipated in the extended forecast. We'll have to watch out for some stronger thunderstorms, although it's hard to see a lot of instability building under this cooler north to northwest flow.

-Smith



AVIATION
19/18Z TAFs...A moderately moist north to northeast flow covers southwest Oregon from the Cascades to the coast. The moisture is pretty much confined to a small layer between 5000 and 7000 ft msl. This is causing sct to bkn fair weather cumulus clouds. This moisture will slowly dry during the day so the cloudiness will slowly dissipate but may not totally dissappear especially in areas north of the Umpqua divide. For areas east of the Cascades and in northern California, clear blues skies rule with the addition of some high thin cirrus.

Another afternoon of gusty north to northwest winds is in store region-wide through the early evening. Wind speeds will be similar to yesterday's and calm towards the late evening. Another marine surge tonight will result in more scattered to broken stratus decks along the Coos coast and into western valleys, but expecting VFR conditions to continue. -CSP/Sargeant

MARINE
Updated 800 AM Sunday, May 19, 2024...A strong thermal trough along the coast will produce north gales and very steep, wind-driven seas south of Cape Blanco through Monday evening.
Conditions will be less severe, but still hazardous to small craft with breezy north winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco.

Model guidance continues to suggest periods of off-and-on gales south of Cape Blanco, and a Gale Warning is in place for the areas where these gales are expected to surface. These conditions will be most severe during the afternoon and evening hours each day through Monday with both winds and seas easing late at night into the early morning.

Low pressure approaching from the north will disrupt the thermal trough by Tuesday with winds diminishing and seas becoming dominated by longer period swells. -CSP/Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:41 AM PDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:51 AM PDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:12 PM PDT     1.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:37 PM PDT     6.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Reedsport
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM PDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:57 AM PDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 PM PDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:43 PM PDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Medford, OR,