Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:58PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:26 PM EDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 6:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 939 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain late in the morning. Areas of fog late in the morning...then patchy fog in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. A slight chance of light rain in the late evening and overnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy with a slight chance of light rain early in the morning...then partly cloudy in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201703272115;;158973 FZUS53 KDTX 271339 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 939 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ422-272115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 271043
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
643 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Aviation
Ample low level moisture circulating around a broad sfc low centered
over lake huron and enhanced convergence along a sfc trough axis
over SW lower mi has sustained frequent intervals of ifr and lower
ceilings and visibilities across the area. The enhanced low level
convergence is also supporting some light showers/drizzle which will
persist over the next couple hours. The sfc trough will hold nearly
stationary across SE mi through the afternoon. With lingering low
level moisture in place, this will result in a persistence of
stratus/strato cu. Diurnal heating will lead to a slight rise in the
ceilings heights during the course of the day, although bases are
likely to remain MVFR.

For dtw... There has been increasing variability in ceiling heights
upstream, but predominate ifr conditions looks to hold with some
areas of drizzle through 14 or 15z.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 feet through the TAF period.

Prev discussion
Issued at 332 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
discussion...

surface low is now centered over lower mi as it continues to slowly
lift northeastward through the region. The surface low has been
weakening while the stacked mid level low also weakens into an open
wave. Though the bulk of any precip with the system has ended, we
will remain in a very moisture rich environment through the morning
resulting in patchy fog and isolated light showers in the trailing
trough. Winds becoming more southwesterly are ushering in drier air
which will work northward through the morning drying out the low
levels for a while. The drier air will help raise ceiling heights
today but ample moisture beneath the inversion will take a while to
scour out, and by the time it would later this evening the next
system will already be spreading clouds back into the mid/high
levels. So forecast will remain cloudy.

Will not get much of a break before the next system brings the next
batch of showers to southern lower mi. This next mid level wave
embedded in the active southern stream of the jet is over the
central plains and will track through the ohio valley Monday night
into Tuesday. Some interaction with a weak northern stream trough
digging down into the great lakes is leading to model differences as
to northern extent of the precip shield with this low. There is a
lingering trough axis laid out by the exiting low in conjunction
with the approaching lead band of isentropic ascent which could get
compressed by the sinking northern stream trough. Working against it
all will be the wake subsidence from the exiting low not to mention
all factors being fairly weak. Will continue to hit more on the
deformation forcing tied more closely to the low itself as the main
player with the previously noted features further north being
secondary. Pops will highlight this with chance/likely pops moving
in Monday night closer to the ohio border with only slight chance
across the i69 corridor.

After this second low passes east Tuesday morning, we'll see a quiet
stretch the rest of Tuesday through Wednesday night as canadian high
pressure builds across the region. The high will be centered to our
north keeping us in the cool easterly flow through this time. This
will merely temper the possible warming of the late march sun
keeping temperatures near seasonal averages in the low 50s. With the
northern stream of the jet locking the cold air well to the north,
and the active southern stream skirting us to the south for the most
part, we reside in a region with little thermal adjustments
occuring.

The active southern jet will send yet another trough into the great
lakes late Thursday through Friday night. This is a deeper trough
with stronger surface reflection thus long range models are in fair
agreement so far. Looks like another wet stretch with the low
lifting through southern mi while reaching its mature phase. We can
try to iron out more precise timing with future forecast cycles.

Marine...

ample low level moisture associated with low pressure slowly
tracking across lake huron this morning will support marine fog on
the lake. A little low level dry air advection in the wake of the
sfc low will aid in scouring out marine fog this afternoon. There
will also be a cold front pushing across lake huron from the north
during the afternoon. This front will then slide south across lakes
st clair and erie tonight. An abrupt switch to a northerly wind
direction will occur along this front. High pressure will expand
across the northern great lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This
will support increasing northerly winds, possibly gusting over 20
knots at times across southern lake huron and lakes st clair and
erie. This will support a chance that some small craft advisory
conditions may develop on the southern lake huron basin on Tuesday.

Strong high pressure to the north and east of the region will
maintain an easterly wind component into Friday. Low pressure
forecast to lift into the ohio valley by Friday will in turn lead to
a tightening gradient and thus increasing winds.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi26 min WSW 14 G 15 43°F 1011.9 hPa (+1.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi46 min SW 8.9 G 11 45°F 1012.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 7 46°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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W11
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NE17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw, Saginaw County H.W. Browne Airport, MI10 mi30 minWSW 1010.00 miOvercast50°F42°F76%1012.9 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi33 minW 1210.00 miOvercast49°F46°F90%1013.5 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi32 minW 710.00 miOvercast49°F45°F89%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7CalmE8E6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S4SW5SW5SW9SW6SW5SW11SW7W9
1 day agoNE11NE14NE11NE17E15NE13E11E12E9NE11NE9NE9E8NE8NE8NE7NE5NE5NE6NE8NE5NE7E5E4
2 days agoSW13
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N6NE7N6N8N7N10N13NE8N9
G16
NE10NE9NE13NE11NE15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.