Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:22PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 10:11 PM EDT (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 11:43PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 943 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy with numerous showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201706290915;;979358 FZUS53 KDTX 290143 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 943 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-290915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 290104
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
904 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Update
Mid level moisture advection this evening proved rather efficient in
generating at least light showers across much of the area. Mid level
moisture transport has been focused across central lower mi. This
has led to more persistent showers across the saginaw valley and
thumb regions. Earlier model solutions strongly suggested that the
better convective potential through the overnight would shift to the
northern great lakes as a longer wavelength trough rotating across
the NRN great lakes lifts the low level jet into NRN michigan. The
ongoing quasi stationary MCS now over the wi il ia border region adds
a level of uncertainty to this. Recent satellite radar trends
suggest a little more stationary forcing has set up across central
michigan. The resultant MCV from this convective complex may sustain
this region of enhanced moisture convergence across the northern
sections of the forecast area into the overnight. The approach of
this MCV combined with increasing elevated instability through the
overnight will support a chance for thunderstorms. An update will be
issued to further increase convective chances across the northern
portions of the forecast area. The convectively induced troughing to
the west may actually force some enhanced short wave ridging across
lake erie, which may be enough to limit convective chances to the low
chance category across the southern portions of the forecast area
(metro detroit and points south).

The elevated instability overnight will be marginal, so severe
weather is not expected. Given the excessive rainfall across central
michigan this past week, current radar trends bear some watching. The
expectation is for the convection to weaken as it pushes toward the
saginaw valley, which should prevent excessive rainfall totals.

Prev discussion
Issued at 701 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
aviation...

ongoing mid level moisture transport has resulted in high based
light showers across the area. Low to mid level moisture transport
will increase during the course of the night, which will support a
continued chance of showers. Weak elevated instability will arrive
late this evening. While this will support a chance of a few
thunderstorms, probabilities are under 30 percent. The more
persistent showers and best chances for thunderstorms will be at
mbs, where moisture convergence will be greater. There will be some
decrease in sfc winds this evening with loss of daytime heating. As
the low level wind fields increase (45-55kts at 2-3k ft after 04z),
a mention of low level wind shear remains justified in the tafs
overnight into early thurs morning.

For dtw... The initial surge in mid level moisture may support some
light showers at the start of the TAF forecast. Chances for showers
during the remainder of the night is still quite low as the better
moisture transport will become focused north of metro detroit. Low
level moisture advection thurs morning will support sct to perhaps
broken ceilings below 5k ft by mid to late thurs morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less overnight through Thursday
morning. Moderate Thursday afternoon.

* low in thunderstorms tonight and Thursday morning. Moderate late
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion...

issued at 341 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
discussion...

surface low pressure advancing towards the northern great lakes
region will continue to push a warm front up across northern wi and
into western mi. Convection from this morning has slowly weakened
and continues to do so as it crosses into michigan. The warm front
did spark development out ahead of the the morning convection as it
moved across eastern wi. This is what we have been watching with
the activity slightly outpacing some of the model data. 12z
soundings from both dtx and apx showed quite a bit of drier air in
the column with the ridging that has been in place. While this has
helped in holding off precip, moisture advection coming into the
area should help in maintaining some of the precipitation. Forecast
is on par with the trends as the northern half of the CWA will see
better chances for activity through the later afternoon and into the
evening. Rainfall amounts are expected to stay on the lighter side
through early Thursday morning, generally less than half an inch.

Surface based convection has already started to develop back across
the midwest this afternoon. This activity is expected to weaken as
it pushes east overnight. Activity is then expected to increase in
coverage Thursday morning as the area remains in the warm sector
coupled with the advancement of the warm front across the area.

There is still uncertainly in just how much coverage there will be
as it moves into the warm sector tomorrow morning. With instability
increasing, SPC has nudged both the marginal and slight risks
northward with main concerns for strong winds during the afternoon
and evening periods. Going into Friday, chances are still there for
storms as the cold front pushes through. Friday looks to be the
best chance for storms as opposed to Thursday, but again will be
dependent on how convection from the previous day plays out. The
entire CWA continues to be highlighted in slight risk for Friday.

Warm air advection will continue to bring warmer temperatures into
the area through the end of the week. Highs on Thursday are
expected to be the warmest for the week with highs warming into the
lower 80s.

A wet weather pattern looks to be in store for southeast michigan
during the weekend into early next week. The first wave of low
pressure will move in on Saturday bringing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms diminishing by the afternoon hours. A high
pressure system will then build into the great lakes region on
Sunday, bringing relatively dry weather, however, an isolated shower
would not be out of the question. Another wave of low pressure will
then move through the region Monday evening into Tuesday allowing
for chances of showers and thunderstorms yet again. High pressure
then looks to move into the area on Wednesday, bringing drier
conditions. Temperatures will remain seasonal, with high
temperatures hovering around the upper 70s to low 80s, and overnight
lows in the 60s.

Marine...

low pressure developing over the western great lakes will continue
to support increasing southerly wind over marine areas tonight
through Thursday. Moderate speed will be more common over saginaw
bay and over western lake erie where channeling and alongshore flow
respectively will enhance gusts. Small craft advisories are in
effect overnight through Thursday evening for these areas as well as
for port austin to harbor beach around the tip of the thumb. This
wind pattern will bring in warmer and more unstable air into the
region before easing Thursday night into Friday. The warmer air will
fuel increased thunderstorm activity as low pressure over the
northern great lakes Thursday drags a diffuse surface trough through
the region Friday into Saturday.

Hydrology...

low pressure tracking into the northern great lakes tonight will
pull a warm front into lower michigan. Thunderstorms in progress
over the midwest and western great lakes will tend to focus more
along this front through central lower michigan overnight through
Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be in
the range of one quarter and one half inch north of i-69 through
Thursday morning. Locally higher totals around 1 inch will be
possible due to clusters of thunderstorms.

Additional storms may develop throughout Thursday and Thursday night
as warm and increasingly humid air builds into the region but with a
focus more to the south of the i-69 corridor. Average rainfall
amounts will be generally less than one half inch, but localized
higher amounts in excess of an inch will once again be possible
within any more concentrated areas of thunderstorms. This will be
followed by another low pressure system tracking west of the region
that will maintain the threat for thunderstorms Friday and Friday
night.

The potential for flooding will be dependent on the cumulative
rainfall totals during this active period. Should a more focused
region of heavy rainfall emerge, then the potential for a
corresponding rise of area rivers and streams, as well as minor
flooding will be possible. Central lower michigan will remain most
susceptible as the area continues to recover from recent flooding.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 10 pm edt Thursday
for lhz421-422-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm edt Thursday for
lez444.

Update... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Sp mv
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi71 min S 19 G 21 68°F 1011.5 hPa (-1.4)
45163 32 mi31 min S 19 G 25 65°F 60°F2 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi31 min SSE 28 G 33 68°F 1012.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi31 min SSE 8 G 12 59°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi15 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain63°F55°F77%1012.9 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi18 minSSE 97.00 miLight Rain63°F60°F90%1012.4 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi19 minS 610.00 miLight Rain62°F57°F83%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6W5W7W7W9NW9W6W6W7W8W9W10
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2 days agoSW4SW5SW5W5SW5SW6SW6SW8W8SW6SW7W13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.