Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:05PM Saturday May 25, 2019 11:07 PM EDT (03:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:03AMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 956 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201905260900;;465833 FZUS53 KDTX 260207 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 956 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-260900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 252310
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
710 pm edt Sat may 25 2019

Aviation
The jet stream overhead will become more zonally orientated
overnight. This will suppress geopotential heights over the central
great lakes forcing a cold front to sag backdoor through the area
overnight. Persistence of strong s.E. U.S. Ridging will cause the
front to hang up immediately south of metro detroit or the mi oh
state line for Sunday. Very modest cold air advection will occur over
southern lower michigan, but drying from midlevel subsidence will
lead to a stable column for much of the cwa. At this time, will go
with dry tafs as any shower potential Sunday will occur south of dtw.

Model soundings are trying to show some hz potential overnight, and
will be monitoring the trends this evening in latest model guidance.

Certainly possible to see some MVFR vsby reductions. For now, models
are a little aggressive in generating stratus instead. Maintained a
vfr ceiling for the detroit terminals with some right entrance region
dynamics interacting with the frontal boundary to the south.

Relatively weak easterly winds Sunday, but potential does exist for
sustained winds to exceed 7 knots.

For dtw...VFR skies tonight with some potential for MVFR vsby
restrictions overnight due to br hz.VFR CIGS throughout Sunday with
precipitation remaining south of dtw Sunday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for CIGS of 5kft or less early Sunday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 432 pm edt Sat may 25 2019
discussion...

the window for marginal severe thunderstorms closes as the corridor
of upper level support finishes sliding through SE michigan. This
larger scale forcing was weak but just enough to help erode a modest
mid level cap that was evident earlier in the day. Afternoon
mesoanalysis measured surface based CAPE of 1500-2000 j kg and
mlcape in the 500-1000 j kg range which was strong enough to take
advantage of surface to 6 km bulk shear around 50 kts. Multicell
clusters were slow to intensify in this environment in terms of
lightning flash rate but showed hints of organization in radar
reflectivity depictions. The multicell storm mode initially
presented pockets of damaging wind and severe hail threats where
updrafts could organize with some mid level rotational enhancement.

A trend toward more organized line segments occurred as convection
matured with a larger damaging wind footprint occurring downriver to
the ohio border.

Passage of the subtle upper wave nudges the weak surface cold front
south of the ohio border tonight but not far enough for elevated
portions of the front to clear SE michigan. This maintains a path
for new nocturnal convection to develop over the midwest and move
downstream along near the border. The source region across the
central plains to mid mississippi valley tonight provides low level
jet forced convection into the frontal zone that is further enhanced
and lifted northeast by the entrance region of the upper jet setting
up over central lower michigan toward sunrise. Model depictions of
the low level theta-e gradient point to the south four SE michigan
counties for chance pops late tonight through Sunday with some
potential for northward adjustment depending on the effectiveness of
the entrance region to manipulate the mid level frontal circulation.

A short pause in shower storm potential occurs Sunday night and
Monday morning. The upper jet segment moves eastward and leaves low
amplitude short wave ridging overhead while the next low pressure
system organizes across the plains. This system pulls the front back
north over lower michigan Monday night returning an active period of
showers and thunderstorms to the region through Tuesday.

Marine...

low pressure and the associated cold front moving across the central
great lakes supports scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the
evening mainly across lake st clair and western erie. Marine
conditions otherwise consist of light to moderate wind and minimal
wave impacts outside of thunderstorms as the front stalls south of
lake erie. High pressure brings dry weather to a larger portion of
marine areas Sunday with the possible exception of western lake
erie. Showers and thunderstorms increase again across the central
great lakes Monday night as the next low pressure system moves into
the midwest and pulls the stalled front back northward across the
western great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi67 min SW 17 G 18 66°F 1010.8 hPa (+1.0)
45163 32 mi27 min WSW 12 G 12 62°F 55°F2 ft
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi27 min SW 11 G 17 68°F 1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last
24hr
SE6
S9
SE11
SE13
S11
G14
S6
G10
S16
G20
S15
S11
G15
SE15
S12
S15
S14
G17
S11
G16
SW9
G12
W10
G15
SW6
G9
W10
G18
W10
G17
W14
G20
W11
G23
W11
G21
SW11
G16
SW11
G15
1 day
ago
W4
G9
NW4
G7
NW5
G10
W7
NW6
N9
N7
NW5
N11
G14
N9
N10
N8
N11
N6
NE5
G8
N5
N5
NE2
SE4
E6
SE6
SE5
SE7
S7
2 days
ago
S14
G18
S10
G15
S6
G9
S5
SE8
SE6
S4
SE13
G16
SW7
SE15
S7
SW13
G18
SW17
G24
W16
G25
W18
G28
W22
G29
W15
G27
W17
G23
W15
G25
W17
G25
NW12
G21
N8
NW6
W4
G7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi72 minSW 910.00 miFair72°F62°F73%1012.2 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi74 minSW 1110.00 miFair70°F64°F82%1011.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi72 minSW 710.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrE5SE4SE7SE11E7SE8S17
G23
SE14SE10S6S8SW14
G21
SW14
G19
SW13
G23
SW15
G20
SW15
G21
W16
G27
W16
G22
SW15
G20
W18SW16
G22
SW13
G16
SW10SW8
1 day agoW6W6W5NW6NW5NW4CalmCalmW4NW6N7CalmE6E7CalmCalmCalmS4SE9S4CalmS3SE4E5
2 days agoS9S10S9S9S5S5CalmS6S7SW19
G27
SW14
G22
SW17
G20
SW15
G25
SW19
G27
W22
G31
W23
G30
W17
G23
W16
G30
W20
G26
W18
G21
W18
G24
W10
G16
W7W5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.