Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:35PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:14 AM EST (12:14 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 402 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Areas of fog in the morning. Light rain early in the morning...then showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Light showers.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Light showers in the morning. Light snow showers in the late morning and early afternoon...then a chance of light snow showers late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers early in the evening. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201801221615;;817393 FZUS53 KDTX 220902 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 402 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-221615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221043
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
543 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Aviation
Favorable positioning north of a warm front will sustain the
existing widespread low stratus and fog throughout the SE michigan
airspace during the late morning period. Recent observations
indicate that pockets of rain now entering the region will bring
some improvement to visibility, limiting the potential for
additional dense fog where visibility drops below 1 mile. Lifr
ceilings will remain common through this time. Improvement in
conditions from south to north by early afternoon as the warm front
lifts across the region. Upstream trends and recent model guidance
continue to support a complete removal of low level moisture at
least as far north as fnt. This will provide a window forVFR
conditions as a mid level dry slot dictates conditions late today
into early tonight. Greater potential for mbs to retain lifr
conditions throughout the daylight period, with the warm front
struggle to reach this far north. Low level moisture will increase
all locations upon the arrival of a cold front by early Tuesday
morning. This will bring a corresponding reduction in ceiling height
and a renewed increase in precipitation potential.

For dtw... Existing lifr conditions in low ceiling and dense fog will
see slow improvement during the late morning period as intermittent
rainfall lifts through. Much greater improvement then expected this
afternoon in the wake of warm frontal passage. Window for CIGS to
lift above 5000 ft for the latter half of the day.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning. Low this afternoon.

* high for rain as precipitation type today and tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 347 am est Mon jan 22 2018
discussion...

early morning fog will persist several more hours until a warm front
lifts north and showers fill in across the area. Overall
visibilities have improved over the last few hours with only
sporadic 1 4sm observations being noted across SE mi. Though fog
will remain across the area for several hours, only locally dense
fog is expected here on out, thus the headline will expire at 4am
and we'll handle any brief pockets of dense fog with spss.

Active stretch of weather to start the new work week as a dynamic
and very mature low mid level low over the plains continues it's
march toward the great lakes. Models in good agreement with the
center of the low tracking through mid mi late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Several rounds of rain showers will pass through the region
associated with this low and the several fronts connected to it.

Timing these periods of showers and possible dry slots seems to be
one of the biggest forecast challenges early on. Model soundings
show temperatures above freezing across all of SE mi up through
about 700mb keeping ptype all liquid through Tuesday morning.

In advance of the low, the lead wings of isentropic ascent along a
warm front, current draped just south of the mi border, will provide
the first round of rain showers this morning. The band of showers
has already come together as seen on regional radar mosaic and
should lift into the state by about 09z. Strong low level jet
starting to nose into SW lower mi should keep this band progressive
lifting it north of the m59 corridor by 17z as the warm front itself
pushes north. Good moisture and forcing should allow a quick quarter
inch of QPF with this band as it lifts through.

Models vary with handling the pops during the daytime hours as it
appears there is 2 distinct dry slots rotating about the low. First
one is lifting northward just ahead of the first cold front and
could clip the metro detroit area this afternoon from about 17-20z.

Coverage of showers will decrease but still could see some scattered
light showers. The cold front them moves through and is losing its
definition due to occluding processes and distance from the low.

Still should see a second batch of showers pass east through the
area after 20z. Meanwhile, with the warm front stalling over mid mi
the east west oriented isentropic band could stall across the
saginaw valley and thumb leading to rain through most of the day.

The next dry slot then looks to lift up and through southern mi
between about 00-06z Tuesday ahead of the secondary cold front
located much closer to the low. Water vapor imagery shows this dry
slot very well so the only question is do showers start bubbling up
and filling back into the dry slot as its sliding though? In terms
of the forecast, will recognize the dry slots with chance pops and
highlight the frontal bands with likely or categorical pops.

The center of the low and mid level pv MAX will keep at least
scattered showers around through the rest of the night.

Northwesterly winds on the backside of the low will usher in a
colder airmass but still plenty of moisture to work with as the
deformation band passes through on Tuesday. We will be dealing with
a cooling boundary layer which could bring about a mix of rain and
snow later in the day. At this point still expecting any snow
accumulations to be on the light side as change over won't occur til
waning hours of the event late Tuesday evening.

Event total rainfall amounts should range from around a half inch
near the ohio border to around 1 inch north of i69. This much
rainfall over frozen ground with recent snow melt could cause some
flooding concerns. Look for area rivers to rise with runoff and
ponding in low lying areas also seems quite probable.

Quiet weather returns through the mid late week as ridging builds
into the region. Temps will fall back to late january normals with
highs around freezing and lows in the 20s. Models advertising the
next system to arrive over the weekend. Model consensus currently
points toward another warm event across lower mi as the surface low
is north of the area pulling warm air back up through the region.

Marine...

low pressure will track toward the central great lakes today and
tonight, reaching the central lake huron waters by Tuesday morning.

Easterly winds will strengthen today as this system approaching,
leading to a period of gales over the north half of lake huron this
afternoon and evening. The system will also produce widespread
coverage of precipitation, primarily rain from saginaw bay southward
and a wintry mix to the north. Wind will diminish as the low moves
through central lake huron overnight and Tuesday. Northwest wind
trailing the system could approach gales briefly Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Winds will ease by Wednesday as weak high pressure
builds into the region.

Hydrology...

mild and moist conditions across the region will result in periodic
bouts of rainfall through the daylight period. This environment
will also work to to melt any remaining snow cover while the ground
remains mostly frozen. Efficient runoff from both the melting snow
and rainfall could result in ponding of water on roads and other
prone areas. Rivers, creeks and streams around the region could also
become elevated due to runoff. Total rainfall is expected to be
around 1 inch through Monday night, with most falling during the
day.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi75 min ENE 13 G 15 33°F 1013.2 hPa (-1.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi35 min NE 15 G 17 33°F 1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi80 minE 91.50 miFog/Mist34°F33°F100%1012.9 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi82 minENE 121.50 miFog/Mist36°F36°F100%1013.8 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi80 minENE 81.75 miUnknown Precip36°F34°F97%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmE4NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E4E6NE6E8NE8E8
1 day agoSW7SW6SW8SW9SW10SW7SW7S10SW11SW8SW8SW6SW6SW6SW6S5SW4SW4SW5S4S5S4S4SW3
2 days agoS9S8S9SW12SW17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.