Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 9:09PM Sunday July 23, 2017 2:56 AM EDT (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 8:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southeast early in the afternoon...then becoming light and variable late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy until early morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A chance of light showers until early morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon...then becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201707230900;;677494 FZUS53 KDTX 230203 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1002 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230357
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1157 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Aviation
Very moist low level environment firmly entrenched across the
southeast michigan airspace overnight. Steady southward expansion
of lower stratus underway, with an eventual reduction into ifr
becoming increasing likely for all locations per recent satellite
trends. Fog development remains more contingent on winds eventually
decoupling, but there remains the potential for a corridor of more
dense fog to emerge toward sunrise. Slow improvement through the
latter half of the morning, with a more progressive upward trend in
cigs expected during the afternoon as greater mixing ensues in
advance of a cold front. Frontal passage will provide a window
during the afternoon period for possible tsra shra. Drier
conditions will return Sunday night.

For dtw... A combination of low stratus and fog expected to emerge
during the early-mid morning period. Low potential for conditions
to dip into lifr, particularly if dense fog develops.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

* high in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon through
Sunday morning.

* low for vsby at or below 1 4 mile Sunday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 314 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
discussion...

humid moist airmass down low with low level convergence leading to
areas of low clouds and drizzle up across north half of the cwa.

Meanwhile, toward the south, warm and dry mid levels in place, with
rap13 analysis indicating 500 mb temps around -5 c and 700 mb temps
around 11 c. Still, mlcapes pushing at or just above 1000 j kg this
afternoon potentially yielding a thunderstorm capable of producing
heavy rain before weak wave of low pressure slides east by sunset,
allowing dew pts to slip under 70 degrees with little if any
shower thunderstorm activity expected this evening tonight. With mid
clouds exiting, enough surface near surface moisture to support
areas of fog with calm winds.

Upper level wave low over southern manitoba this afternoon swinging
southeast through lake superior u.P. Tonight and through the straits
tomorrow. One surface low is currently over west central
illinois northern missouri and will be tracking eastward, sliding
south of the michigan border early tomorrow morning, with more of an
inverted trough extending northwest through lower michigan before
low coming out of western great lakes takes over and drops southeast
into eastern great lakes Sunday night. With moisture quality
concerns and mid level dry slot in place, especially over far
southern lower michigan expected to limit coverage of activity. 12z
nam attempts to advect back dew pts around 70 degrees, yielding
capes in the 1500-2000 j kg range, which would be sufficient for
isolated severe storms with 0-6 km bulk shear in excess of 30 knots.

However, moisture 850-700 mb theta-e axis is very narrow, and mid
level lapse rates are still nothing special, around 6.5 c km from
700-500 mb. Mid level lapse rates then drop off by early evening as
actual cold front swings through, and it looks like we will be hard
pressed to see more than scattered coverage of activity, especially
if we hold onto a lot of cloud cover through the day and maxes come
up short of the projected highs in the mid 80s.

Surge of low level cold advection, helped out by northeast push off
lake huron Sunday night, setting us up for cooler Monday with highs
in the 70s.

High pressure will keep dry and pleasant conditions in place on
Tuesday with highs near 80. An upper level low tracking east through
southern canada will bring the next chance for active weather as a
cold front pushes through the region during the midweek period.

Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will bring warmer, more
humid conditions across the region on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Model guidance has trended slightly slower for the
frontal passage keeping the chance for thunderstorms in the forecast
for Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure then builds back into
the region late next week as an amplifying upper level trough over
the northeast brings a return to dry, pleasant conditions and near
average temperatures.

Marine...

near stationary low pressure across southern and central lower
michigan tonight and Sunday combined with strengthening high
pressure over james bay will support an increasing easterly gradient
across lake huron this afternoon into Sunday morning. During the day
Sunday, winds will veer toward the southeast while the stronger
winds become focused across the northern third of lake huron. This
will result from deepening surface low pressure across lower
michigan. Winds gusts across far northern lake huron may actually
top 20 knots on Sunday. This low pressure system will also provide a
chance for thunderstorms on Sunday to the entire region. The low
will depart to the eastern great lakes on Monday. Northeasterly
winds are expected to develop on the back side of this low Sunday
night into Monday. Winds may become gusty at times across lake
huron, especially saginaw bay where hazardous small craft conditions
may develop.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Sf jd
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi57 min E 9.9 G 11 70°F 1008.8 hPa (-0.3)
45163 32 mi37 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 72°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi77 min NNE 8 G 8.9 69°F 1010.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi77 min N 1.9 G 4.1 67°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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W6
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G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi63 minNNE 37.00 miOvercast66°F64°F94%1009.5 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi64 minNNE 45.00 miFog/Mist66°F66°F100%1009.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair65°F64°F98%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS6NE7CalmNE5NE4NE5SE4SE5E6SE4E5E4N4N7N6N4NE5N3CalmN4N3NE3
1 day agoNW5CalmNW4W4NW3NW5NW3CalmCalmSW5SW4W5SW5S6SW7S7S5SW6SW5CalmS5S3N4S5
2 days agoSE5SE5SE6CalmW4W11
G14
W10
G15
W10W12
G15
SW8W8SW8W13SW12
G17
SW9SW9SW8SW6SW5SW5SW4SW6W5NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.