Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:14 PM EDT (21:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:28PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 322 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming light and variable early in the morning. Light rain and light snow in the evening, then a chance of light rain and snow after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201903210315;;663401 FZUS53 KDTX 201922 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 322 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-210315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201921
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
321 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Discussion
Warm advection beneath a canopy of increasingly opaque cloud cover
has allowed temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 40s this
afternoon, which is right on target for the third week of spring.

Concurrently, steering flow around the upper-level low spinning over
lake superior is drawing a lower amplitude wave northeast and out of
the ohio valley. Slightly higher moisture content characterized by
pwats around 0.5" is proving sufficient to generate widespread
showers in the presence of deep isentropic ascent. This wave of
forcing will continue for the next several hours before
transitioning to a narrower fgen type of forcing as the
aforementioned PV anomaly pivots through late. Lingering showers and
drizzle will taper off from west to east early Thursday morning as
dry northwest flow builds in from the west. Threat of drizzle
persisting much after sunrise appears quite low as boundary layer flow
becomes anticyclonic beneath increasingly confluent flow aloft.

Nonetheless, any clearing will be brief as the lowering inversion
and recent rain suggests widespread diurnal stratocu will develop
during the morning. Highs recover into the mid upper 40s once again
with 850mb temps settling slightly below zero. Trailing wave
amplifies as it propagates across lake huron and the lower great
lakes late Thursday night through early Friday morning. Resident
dry airmass will be supportive of wet bulb cooling in the boundary
layer. Considered along with nocturnal timing, a brief round of non-
accumulating or very light snow accumulation is likely during this
time window. Muted diurnal response during Friday as cold advection
forces 850mb temperatures toward -10c by evening. No argument with
12z guidance suggesting highs in the upper 30s.

Thermal trough will be working east out of the region early Saturday
allowing a slight warm up through the weekend back to around 50 by
Sunday. Helping this recovery will be an area of high pressure at
the surface sliding southeast of the state while mid level ridge
axis passes overhead. This will allow west-southwest flow to advect
warmer air into the area while heights builds. Next chance of precip
will come Sunday night as a northern stream trough drops a cold
front through lower mi. Some shortwave energy is shown to eject out
of the southern stream trough over the rockies and along the front.

Temperatures will allow precip to start as rain before changing to
snow overnight. We'll reside on the cool side of the jet to start
the new week with highs hovering around 40 til mid week. Expansive
area of high pressure will keep the area dry through this time as
well.

Marine
Modest winds will hold across the region Thursday, before
strengthening from the northwest Thursday night. Strongest northwest
winds noted Friday, when a period of gusts to low end gales will be
possible. Expect ice breakup to continue with the changing wind
conditions and relatively mild weather.

Hydrology
Ongoing light rain will continue through the evening. Rainfall
totals of two to four tenths of an inch are expected. Most mainstem
river levels have subsided significantly over the last several days.

The additional precipitation will only serve to slow the steady
decrease with no additional river flooding expected. Susceptible
collection areas, that likely already contain run-off water, will
swell with the additional precipitation.

Prev discussion
Issued at 111 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
aviation...

light rain canopy is making steady inroads across southeast michigan
this midday hour. Ceilings are quickly dropping after the onset of
steady rainfall. Additionally, the near surface layer moistens
quickly, allowing for reductions in visibility into the 3-4sm range.

Some gustiness to 20 knots is possible during the early time frame
of rainfall as well, due to evaporative forcing. The rain, lower
ceilings, and reduced visibility will hold across the terminals well
into the overnight hours. The steady rain will end after midnight,
only to leave low clouds (ifr cigs), light fog, and some patchy
drizzle. Ceilings and visibilities will slowly improve Thursday
morning as drying occurs under northerly flow conditions.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 ft mid afternoon through Thursday
morning.

* high in precip type being all rain.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mann
hydrology... .Mann
aviation... ..Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi74 min S 16 G 17 37°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi34 min SSE 15 G 17 36°F 1016.6 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi34 min S 8.9 G 14 38°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi19 minSSE 11 G 157.00 miDrizzle41°F37°F87%1015.9 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi21 minS 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F36°F93%1016.4 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi19 minS 74.00 miLight Rain38°F35°F90%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW12SW7SW6SW6SW6SW4S5S5S7S7S8S9S9S8S8S14S11SW13
G18
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1 day agoS3W9SW10SW5SW5W8W4SW4SW5SW4SW4SW4SW5SW4SW4S4SW4SW5SW7W8SW7S6SW10
G15
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2 days agoCalmW6W3CalmCalmSW4CalmSW4W4W4W4NW4NW5NW3NW3CalmW3CalmW5NW7W5W8W7SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.