Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 8:01PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:04 AM EDT (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 9:02PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 345 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain and snow after midnight. A chance of light rain and snow early in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Rain with light snow likely until late afternoon...then rain late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201703291500;;249064 FZUS53 KDTX 290745 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 345 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ422-291500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 291054
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
654 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Aviation
Aside from a few to perhaps a brief period of scattered CU this
afternoon, skies will remain clear below 12k ft as strong high
pressure remains anchored to the north of the region today.

For dtw... Light winds early this morning will transition to
northeast around 10 knots by 15 or 16z as daytime heating deepens
the mixed layer.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 339 am edt Wed mar 29 2017
discussion...

quiet day today with really only minor temperature and cloud trend
concerns as surface high pressure sliding across northern ontario in
conjunction with mid level ridging stay in control of the weather.

Temperatures will stay similar to Tuesday with highs around 50,
except in the shadows of the lakes where cool easterly flow may keep
them in the 40s. Even with a slightly cooler thermal profile due to
continued east/northeast flow into the region around the area of
high pressure, a good deal of late march Sun with diurnal mixing up
to around 900mb should get us a degree or so above Tuesday highs.

Some possible stratus off lake huron may stall the warming trend
across the north, but will have to wait and see the extend and
thickness of those clouds. Otherwise may just see some cirrus
sliding in later in the day ahead of the next system.

The next low pressure system is currently over the southern plains
embedded in a deep closed upper low. A strong jet rounding the base
of the upper level trough will start to shear some energy
northeastward into the western great lakes later tonight. The low
itself will then track up through western lake erie on Friday. With
the system originating so far south with strong 850mb moisture
transport ahead of the trough, should get a widespread region of
soaking rain. Model estimates for Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon are around 0.75 to 1" of rainfall. Models have been locked
onto this system for a few period now but there are a few questions
that remain, mainly ptype at the onset Thursday morning, and how
long does precip linger on Friday on the backside?
thermal profile Wednesday night is cold enough for some snow across
the north and surface dew points around 30 will aid in that with wet
bulb cooling. Models hold off on the better moisture and forcing til
after 12z Thursday but do continue to advertise a lead 700mb fgen
band with a midlevel PV filament getting shed from the low still to
the south. Right entrance region of the upper level jet will be a
bit further north but still close enough to support the forcing.

They've held firm on this and current IR satellite images over iowa
are showing hints of this feature. If this forcing can set up over
the area while the cold air is still in place, locations north of
about i69 could end up seeing some wet snow before the changeover to
rain. Introduced some light accums (less than 1 inch) to start
giving credit to this. The 850mb jet will slide through lower mi
around 15-18z Thursday bringing with it a slug of moisture and
warmer air aloft which should result in all rain.

The deformation band will linger over SE mi on Friday as the low is
slow to exit east. Always a question of how fast the ridge and drier
air behind it can scour things out but for now will keep rain going
through the day. After having temperatures bottom out on Thursday,
likely in the low/mid 40s, temperatures will trend back up through
early next week as high pressure through the weekend with periods of
southerly flow allow for a steady increase. Next chance of rain
looks to be Monday/Tuesday as the southern stream remains active,
sending the next system through the ohio valley once again.

Marine...

modest north-northeast winds will persist through the day as strong
high pressure expands from the northern to the eastern great lakes.

Gusts will continue to top 20 knots at times across the southern
lake huron basin and saginaw bay. A tightening of the easterly
gradient will take hold tonight into Thursday night as low pressure
lifts into the ohio valley and strong high pressure holds to the
northeast of the region. Shallow cold air across lake huron will
support neutral to slightly unstable low level conditions, allowing
winds to increase. Small craft advisory conditions are likely to
develop on Thursday and possibly persist through Friday as winds
back to the northeast. The low level wind field will be strongest
across northern and central lake huron, where there is a high
probability that wind gusts will reach 30 knots. There is a chance
that gale force gusts will develop thurs night into Fri morning.

This will be monitored over the next couple forecast cycles in the
event some gale warnings need to be issued. The surface low will
pass east of the region Fri night, with a diminishing trend to the
winds following in its wake.

Hydrology...

a slow moving low pressure system will bring a few rounds of
precipitation to the region Thursday through Friday. Precipitation
will arrive on Thursday along a lead warm front. While most of this
will fall as rain, some snow is possible across the northern saginaw
valley and thumb region. Additional rainfall will then occur on
Friday as the main low pressure system lifts across the eastern
great lakes. Two-day total rainfall amounts from this system are
forecast to range from three quarters of an inch to one inch. These
amounts spread over two days should result in just minor rises to
area rivers and streams.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi64 min NW 5.1 G 5.1 36°F 1024 hPa (+0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi84 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 35°F 1025.1 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi84 min NW 1 G 2.9 31°F 1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N12
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E11
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G14
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G16
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G16
S11
G14
SE9
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S3
G6
SE1
S4
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SW3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw, Saginaw County H.W. Browne Airport, MI10 mi67 minN 07.00 miFair30°F28°F93%1024.4 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi71 minNNW 310.00 miFair30°F28°F96%1025.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi70 minNNW 310.00 miFair27°F26°F96%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N10N10N11N10N15N11
G18
NE11
G15
NE11
G15
N7N9NE7N4N4N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW6SW5SW11SW7W9W10SW9
G16
SW9SW6W9W8W6W7W4NW3N3N7N5NE10NE7NE7NE9N5N5
2 days agoNE8NE5NE7E5E4E7CalmE8E6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S4SW5SW5SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.