Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

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Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:32PM Monday August 20, 2018 3:01 AM EDT (07:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:46PMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1003 Pm Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy becoming mostly Sunny late in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201808200930;;923118 FZUS53 KDTX 200203 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1003 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-200930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200358
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1158 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018

Aviation
There are a lot of moving parts in the aviation forecast tonight
that are benign individually but together can prevent fog from being
as dense compared to the last few nights, or not. Satellite imagery
still indicates pockets of mid clouds developing and dissipating
over southern lower michigan associated with a pocket of higher
moisture content in the 5-10 kft level. There is also some thin
cirrus arriving from the west that is expected to thicken during the
night. This leads to a delicate balance between the mid and high
clouds and light surface wind in the determination of fog potential
through mid morning. Late evening surface observations do hint at
wind speed holding around 5 mph which is usually sufficient to
prevent ifr restriction. A few hours of MVFR fog through about mid
morning then gives way to a further increasing cloud trend through
the day while the chance of rain holds off until later Monday
evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Monday night.

Prev discussion
Issued at 322 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018
discussion...

similar pattern to yesterdays across the area with moist stagnant
low level. Weak surface pressure pattern has allowed several weak
differential heating and lake boundaries to develop. Capes values
pushing around 1k joules from daytime heating with weak capping have
lead to isolated showers so far that have briefly popped up then
quickly dissipated along the different boundaries. Low level
shortwave that was modeled to move more east across the area has been
drifting more southeast and will clip the southwestern portion of
the cwa. This may help a few showers thunderstorms develop more
across western side of the cwa. Though pwats are lower then
yesterday, heavy downpours are still possible with any more intense
cell that develops but should not see inch plus amounts like
yesterday. Any convection or convection chances will quickly
dissipate around sunset.

For tonight into Monday, upper level short wave ridging will slide
through the great lakes. Subsidence will lead to clear skies
tonight and first part of Monday. Low level will remain moist as
dewpoints remain in the low to mid 60s. Expect patchy fog
development again tonight with some locally dense fog in spots. For
Monday, plenty of sunshine the first part of the day will help highs
into the low 80s before mid and high level clouds begin advecting in
from the southwest ahead of the next system. This system is a
closed upper low currently centered over nebraska. This system will
lift towards lower michigan as it gets drawn up by large upper
trough over canada. Models develop a surface low with this system
and track it northeast through SW lower to northern lake huron by
Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of
associated warm front will begin effecting the area near the ohio
border late Monday evening and spread through the area Monday night
and continue through Tuesday. Coverage of activity will become more
scattered behind the warm front and should end early Tuesday night
with passage of cold front.

Quiet and dry weather returns to the forecast Wednesday as heights
aloft rebound and high pressure builds in at the surface. Breezy
northwest winds Wednesday will taper off by the evening, becoming
light and gradually backing to southerly by Friday as the center of
the anticyclone moves eastward through the ohio valley. Cool air,
850mb temps around 8 to 9c, will linger over the area Wednesday in
the wake of Tuesday's cold front. High temps on Wednesday in the low
to mid 70s will moderate back into the low 80s by the weekend. The
next chance for precipitation comes late Friday into Saturday as a
shortwave lifts through the region.

Marine...

light winds and low waves will persist into Monday. A strengthening
system will affect the region Tuesday bringing unsettled weather
conditions. As the system passes, moderate northwest winds will
setup with gust approaching gales - mainly on lake huron - expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Hydrology...

a seasonably strong storm system will sweep across the region Monday
night and Tuesday. Widespread rainfall is expected with totals
approaching an inch in many locations - with locally higher amounts
with any thunderstorm activity. While ponding of water will be
prevalent, a widespread flood threat is not anticipated with this
activity as local watersheds will have the capacity to absorb and
disperse.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Drc tf
marine... ... .Mann
hydrology... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi61 min S 14 G 16 72°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.7)
45163 32 mi21 min S 12 G 14 73°F 74°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi21 min SSE 13 G 17 72°F 1017.6 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi21 min S 7 G 11 71°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi66 minSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F62°F94%1017.6 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi68 minS 59.00 miOvercast70°F66°F90%1017.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi66 minN 010.00 miOvercast69°F66°F92%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4N5E4E4E4W5SW4CalmE4E6E4SE6S3S3SE3
1 day agoW3NW3CalmNW4NW3W4NW5N5N7N9
G14
N9N10N9N10NE9N9N9N6N4NE6E3CalmCalmNW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW4W3W5NW7NW7NE3N5E4N5NW4NW6NW6NW5NW5NW5NW4NW3W4CalmW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.