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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name. |
| Sunrise 7:30AM | Sunset 5:10PM | Friday November 16, 2018 6:07 PM EST (23:07 UTC) | Moonrise 2:19PM | Moonset 12:12AM | Illumination 65% |  |
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 338 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Cloudy. A slight chance of light snow early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of light snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Cloudy. A slight chance of light snow early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of light snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201811170415;;406929
FZUS53 KDTX 162038
NSHDTX
Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
338 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018
For waters within five nautical miles of shore
Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
LHZ422-170415-
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 43.58, -83.88 debug
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition| Fxus63 kdtx 161951 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit pontiac mi 251 pm est Fri nov 16 2018 Discussion Cold temperatures (around 10 degrees below normal) through the weekend, with even colder air spilling in early next week. Temperatures have been struggling to respond today (should still top out in mid upper 30s vs normal highs in upper 40s), as lingering cold low level cyclonic flow even allowing for pockets of drizzle early this afternoon. Continuing drying of the mid levels, lower inversion heights and increased mixing depths this afternoon will diminish cloud depths, which should allow drizzle to wane, but clouds likely holding through the night, holding temps mainly above 30 degrees. Shortwave exiting the dakotas this afternoon appears to be dampening out within the strong westerly flow as it moves through the great lakes region tomorrow. The trend of the low level circulation ripple moving through the midwest is farther south, as weak surface low reaches western ohio river Saturday afternoon, far removed from the upper level support (700-500 mb) which is closer to the southern michigan border. Lift over southern lower michigan looks modest, and main thing we got going is moisture advection, as 850-700 mb increases to around 3 g kg, with the axis along and south of i-94. Will adjust the higher snow pops toward the south, and still think we will be hard pressed to see much more than a dusting to 1 inch with just 2-6 hours of weak forcing to work with. Latest RUC holds off snow until around noon across the bulk of southeast michigan, and if that is the case, there really will be minimal impacts on the highways as temps should be above freezing. Have also noted the 12z euro has backed off on QPF as well. Pronounced surface ridge bubble high to build in Saturday night, allowing winds to go calm. The question is will lake michigan clouds retreat closer to lakeshore, allowing southeast michigan to become mostly clear, and thus allowing temps to dip into the teens across the normally colder locations. Otherwise, if some clouds work through, flurries are not out of the question with optimal 850 mb temps around -10 c. Low level lapse rates really steepen up during the day on Sunday, and NAM soundings even indicating some marginal cape, but below the -10 c isotherm, so thinking there may be a CU up at worst, as temperatures climb predominately into the mid 30s. Will have to watch potentially active fgen zone just south of the michigan border during Sunday, as shortwave through tracks through the midwest. Amplifying longwave trough over the great lakes region on Monday, with high pressure descending from the arctic circle tracking into the northern great lakes Monday night, resulting in 850 mb temps lowering to -10 to -14 c by Tuesday morning over lower michigan. As usual, cloud cover will ultimately determine if we fall into the teens or hold in the lower 20s. Continued cloud cover Tuesday and northwesterly flow bring another round of below- normal temperatures with daytime highs peaking in the upper- 20s to mid-30s across the state, before dropping down into the teens to lower-20s for overnight lows. Flow is expected to turn more zonal into Wednesday which will moderate temperatures slightly, allowing slightly warmer westerly flow to increase temperatures into the 30s across SE mi. Increased subsidence from an advancing high pressure system and advent of dry air in the low to mid-levels will also bring the chance to see some sunshine peak through the clouds during the later part of the day Wednesday. Moderate to high confidence to see a pattern shift starting Thursday onwards as a shortwave trough carves across the plains and sets up a ridge of higher pressure across the midwest, which will act to bring temperatures back to normal for mid to late-november. While the gefs ensemble members were not on board with the warmer trend yesterday at 12z, today's 12z run displays a warming trend in the 40s Friday and into the weekend. ECMWF runs have showed a warming pattern for a |
better part of the week now and continue to show temperatures peaking in the 40s Thursday into the weekend. 00z ecm MOS guidance is the most aggressive with temperatures, hinting at upper 40s to 50 degrees Thursday and Friday for the metro region. For official forecast, will stay slightly conservative with forecasted temperatures in the low to mid-40s but will bump up temperatures in the coming day if persistence between model runs hold over the next 24 hours. Increased subsidence from high pressure will also aid in reducing cloud cover, bringing increased chances for sunshine during the later part of next week. Increasing pressure and dry low to mid-levels will keep precipitation chances minimal during the midweek period. Slight chance to see precipitation leading into next weekend, however, not enough convergence is seen between model runs to accurately pinpoint pop and location at this time. Marine Departing low pressure to the northeast will lead to continued west- northwest winds over the waters tonight, gusting to near gale force this evening and weakening overnight. Elevated wave action in outer saginaw bay and the nearshore waters off the northern thumb will result in hazardous small craft conditions through Saturday morning. Winds and wave action will weaken by Saturday as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Northwest flow will persist, peaking around 20 kt during the afternoon. Scattered snow showers will be possible over the lakes late tonight through Saturday before conditions dry out Sunday. Southwest winds will pick up over lake huron on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front, and gusts to 25 kt will be possible during the afternoon and evening. Prev discussion Issued at 1245 pm est Fri nov 16 2018 aviation... surface trough moving through this afternoon evening is leading to ifr CIGS across the area which will persist through the early afternoon. Southwest winds gusting on the order of 20 kt will shift to west as the trough passes over, then weaken this evening. Cigs will recover to MVFR by late afternoon and hold through the evening and overnight with ample low level moisture in place. A period of lowVFR will also be possible as the inversion sets up in the 3-5 kft range tonight. Another passing upper wave will bring periods of light snow showers back to the area Saturday morning into the afternoon - best chance for the i-94 terminals. For dtw... Ovc CIGS likely lowering to ifr or borderline ifr this afternoon as surface trough moves through. Based on current observational trends, improvement back to MVFR will take several hours. MVFR will linger through the overnight with a small chance for CIGS to improve to lowVFR. Light snow will likely return to the airspace Saturday, likely starting around 15z and persisting much of the day. Gusty west winds this afternoon will weaken overnight. Dtw threshold probabilities... * high for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this evening. * high for precip type of snow on Saturday. Dtx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Saturday for lhz421-441. Lake st clair... None. Michigan waters of lake erie... Low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444. Discussion... Sf am marine... ... .Tf aviation... ..Tf you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at |
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 18 mi | 68 min | WSW 20 G 23 | 37°F | 1010.2 hPa (+2.7) | |||
| GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 35 mi | 28 min | SW 19 G 22 | 36°F | 1011.5 hPa | |||
| TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI | 52 mi | 28 min | WSW 8 G 15 | 36°F | 1010.8 hPa |
Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | |
| Last 24hr | SE | SE G21 | SE | SE | S | SW | SW | SW | SW G9 | W | SW G9 | SW | SW G12 | SW | SW G12 | SW G14 | SW G18 | SW G17 | SW G19 | SW G19 | W G18 | W G20 | W G18 | W G17 |
| 1 day ago | SW | W | W | W | NW | W | SW | SW | SW | W | SW | SE G18 | SE G18 | SE G20 | SE | SE G23 | SE | SE G26 | SE G23 | SE | SE | SE | SE | SE G21 |
| 2 days ago | W G17 | W G16 | W G16 | W G15 | W G16 | NW G14 | W G18 | W G16 | W G14 | W G18 | W G17 | W G14 | W G14 | W G12 | W G12 | W G11 | W G16 | NW G17 | NW G16 | NW G15 | N | N G11 | NW | NW |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI | 10 mi | 13 min | WSW 9 | 7.00 mi | Overcast | 36°F | 32°F | 87% | 1012.9 hPa |
| MBS International Airport, MI | 11 mi | 15 min | WSW 12 | 7.00 mi | Overcast | 36°F | 32°F | 86% | 1013.7 hPa |
| Jack Barstow Airport, MI | 21 mi | 13 min | WSW 5 | 7.00 mi | Overcast | 36°F | 33°F | 88% | 1012.5 hPa |
Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
| 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | |
| Last 24hr | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW |
| 1 day ago | NE | E | E | E | E | E | SE | SE | Calm | NE | NE | E | NE | NE | NE | NE | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E |
| 2 days ago | W | W G17 | NW G16 | W G17 | NW | W | W | W | SW | W | W G14 | W | W | W | W | W | W | NW | N | NE | NE | Calm | E | E |
Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program. |