Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:17PM Saturday February 23, 2019 10:50 AM EST (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 9:54AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 954 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm watch in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy late in the morning becoming cloudy. A slight chance of light rain and snow late in the morning, then a chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 20 to 25 knots after midnight, then becoming south to 30 knots early in the morning. Light rain with Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales late in the morning, then becoming west gales to 40 knot gales with storm force gusts to 50 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. Light showers and light snow showers likely until late afternoon, then a chance of light snow showers late in the afternoon. A storm warning may be needed.
Sunday night..West gales to 35 knot gales with storm force gusts to 50 knots diminishing to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knot gales in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers early in the evening. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201902232215;;388314 FZUS53 KDTX 231454 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 954 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-232215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231025
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
525 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Aviation
Vfr conditions under light e-se flow to start this morning will
quickly deteriorate this afternoon as warm and moist advection lift
into the region ahead of a rapidly strengthening low pressure system
over the central plains. Expect the upstream obs to arrive by
mid late afternoon bringing a drop CIGS to MVFR with potential
ifr lifr conditions tonight as heavier rainfall and thunderstorms
spread across southeast mi. Scattered showers will lift across the
southern terminals by around 21z with more substantial rainfall and
thunderstorms arriving after 00z. Thunderstorm potential will be
between 03-09z tonight. A strong southerly low level jet will also
stream overhead bringing 2-4k ft winds of 50-60 knot resulting in
llws conditions this evening into overnight. Strongest jet winds
arrive by 06z.

For dtw...VFR conditions with light easterly winds to start this taf
period before CIGS drop below 5,000 feet around 18z. Potential ifr
conditions after 00z with the potential for thunderstorms between
03z and 09z. Strong southerly low level jet will bring llws by 00z
as well.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceilings below 5kft by mid late afternoon through
tonight.

* high that precipitation by late Saturday will fall as rain
showers... Thunderstorms will also impact the terminal tonight
mainly between 03z-09z)

Prev discussion
Issued at 317 am est Sat feb 23 2019
discussion...

a short wavelength, yet deep and compact, mid level wave will lift
from the texas panhandle this morning into western wisconsin late
tonight, then across upper michigan Sunday morning. Associated with
this wave will be a deepening sfc low, forecast to deepen from 999mb
over kansas this afternoon to 979mb over eastern upper mi sun
morning. The low will then continue to deepen as it lifts northeast
of lake superior Sunday afternoon. This system will have a relatively
tight gradient and strong low level wind field associated with it.

The 2-5k ft level winds will strengthen to 50-60 knots overnight.

Strong boundary layer stability will inhibit these stronger winds
from reaching the surface overnight. Model solutions indicate a
stronger push of low level winds along the associated surface cold
front (forecast to traverse SE mi between 12z and 15z Sunday). A
brief period of downward momentum transport, with model soundings
showing a rapid reduction in 0-1km stability, will provide an
opportunity to mix some stronger winds to the surface (with a brief
interval of gusts in excess of 55 mph possible). Strong low level
winds (2-4k ft winds of 50-60 knots) will then reside across SRN mi
through Sun evening. The potential for strong wind gusts through the
remainder of the day and evening will hinge on the degree of mixing.

The diurnal heating process and steady low level cold air advection
will result in deepening mixing depths. Low level moisture wrapping
around the departing upper low may however limit this to a degree.

Given the strong low level wind fields, wind gusts in the 45 to 55
mph range seem very achievable. A few gusts up around 60 mph
certainly remain in play. Therefore, the high wind watch for Sunday
will remain in effect.

A lead mid level short wave impulse lifting from iowa into wisconsin
today will enhance a region of moist isentropic ascent from the
western great lakes this morning into central and northern michigan
this afternoon. This will actually give the better chance for light
rain across the saginaw valley later today. Low level moisture
advection will however support a chance for light rain and or some
drizzle across the remainder of the forecast area, mainly after 4 pm.

While the main deep layer moist plume will remain south and east of
the forecast area tonight, the approach of the deep upper wave will
at least draw some decent mid level moisture back across SE mi.

Strong forced ascent associated with the approaching upper wave will
interact with modest convective instability aloft to trigger a brief
yet fairly widespread convective response tonight, with showers and
possibly a fair amount of thunderstorms. The associated mid level dry
slot will support a period of dry conditions shortly before daybreak
Sunday. Low to mid level moisture will then quickly advance back
into the area after daybreak sun. While the low level cold air
advection will not be too aggressive, the column looks to cool
quickly enough to support all snow showers by early Sun afternoon.

Relatively warm boundary layer temps (not to mention the strong
winds) will keep any accums to a minimum. The lake michigan response
looks to come into play Sunday afternoon. While this may support some
degree of enhancement to snow shower activity, the rapid departure
of the deep layer moisture Sun afternoon should limit potential snow
accums.

Despite the mid level flow transitioning toward a more zonal pattern
next week, the low level baroclinic zone will remain largely south of
the state through the first half of the week. This will keep temps
on the cool side of late february averages.

Marine...

impactful low pressure system will be taking shape across the
central plains this afternoon lifting northeast into the straits by
Sunday morning and then into quebec by Sunday night. Lighter east to
southeast flow at 10-20 kts will precede the low this afternoon.

Wind gusts increasing to near gales tonight along with likely rain
and thunderstorms chances. As the low reaches the straits by Sunday
morning, winds will veer to the southwest then eventually to the
west behind a cold front Sunday afternoon. Expect sustained winds to
reach near gales with gusts approaching storm force by the afternoon
and into the overnight time frame. Storm watch will remain in effect
for all of the lake huron basin and lake st. Clair. High end gales
will be likely across western lake erie where a gale watch remains
in effect. Gale force winds will remain early Monday before pressure
gradient finally begins to weaken Monday afternoon as the low lifts
further to the northeast. Weaker northwesterly flow into the middle
of next week as high pressure drifts out of the northern plains and
into the region.

Hydrology...

strong winter storm expected to lift northeast out of the central
plains and through the great lakes tonight into Sunday. The track of
this low will place southeast michigan in a region of warm and moist
advection. The result will be widespread rainfall along with
thunderstorm activity by this evening and overnight. Pwats
increasing to around 1" will aid in total rainfall amounts ranging
from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Thunderstorm activity will allow potential
for higher localized rainfall amounts. Rainfall and warmer
temperatures will bring additional runoff from a melting snow pack.

However, the combined liquid amounts should be insufficient to cause
any significant flooding concerns.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... High wind watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... Storm watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
lhz361>363-462>464.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
lhz421-422-441>443.

Lake st clair... Storm watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for lez444.

Low water advisory from 7 am Sunday to 1 am est Monday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Aa
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Aa
hydrology... .Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi51 min ENE 9.9 G 11 29°F 1023 hPa (-1.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi71 min ENE 9.9 G 11 30°F 1025.1 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi71 min E 8.9 G 13 31°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi75 minE 410.00 miOvercast32°F26°F80%1023.7 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi2 hrsE 107.00 miOvercast30°F24°F79%1025.5 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi75 minENE 610.00 miOvercast31°F25°F80%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE4CalmNE5N4N5NE5N5NE4NE3CalmCalmE4CalmE5E5E3E4E5E6E7E5E5
1 day agoSW19
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W13W7SW8--W6W6W5NW5CalmCalmSW4SW4SW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalm
2 days agoE10E12E11E10E13E10E11SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.