Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:07PM Monday May 27, 2019 8:24 AM EDT (12:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:01AMMoonset 1:02PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 404 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201905271515;;532412 FZUS53 KDTX 270804 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 404 AM EDT Mon May 27 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-271515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 271005
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
605 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Aviation
Existing visibility restrictions in fog will steadily lift through
late morning as diurnal mixing ensues. This will leave an extended
period ofVFR conditions lasting into early evening as the area
remains within a dry and stable east to southeast flow. A thickening
and lowering high based cloud through the day, but with skies
remaining clear across the lowest 5000 ft. Surge of mid level
moisture as an elevated warm frontal zone lifts into the region will
bring increasing potential for showers and elevated thunderstorms
tonight after 00z . The greater coverage of thunderstorms will tend
to focus within the higher instability residing across the ohio
valley, casting some doubt yet in potential coverage locally.

Outgoing forecast will maintain a defined mention across the
detroit pontiac corridor, with greater uncertainty with northward
extent.

For dtw... Shallow fog W accompanying vsby restrictions in the
vicinity of the terminal will lift over the next couple hours.

Otherwise, no aviation concerns thru early evening, with prevailing
east winds generally holding below 7 kts. Possible elevated tsra
within expanding coverage of showers overnight - best potential
centered 03z-08z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low in thunderstorms tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 402 am edt Mon may 27 2019
discussion...

ridge of surface high pressure extending southward into central
lower will gradually strengthen as it shifts east through the early
morning, exiting the area within a couple hours of sunrise.

Dewpoints across the lower peninsula are generally in the 40s and
low 50s with the exception of a narrow within the southern extent of
the surface ridge axis where upper 50s and low 60s are noted. It is
within this corridor that dense fog has developed and persisted for
several hours warranting a dense fog advisory through 8am. Resident
thermal profile features 850mb temperatures in the upper single
digits, not impressive by late may standards. Zonal flow within a
background of suppressed heights will continue through today,
suggesting highs in the mid 70s at best, though likely closer to 70
as convective debris limits insolation.

Morning satellite and radar imagery reveals a developing MCV over
northern ks and southern NE this morning. As the periphery of a
trough transiting the mid and high latitudes of eastern canada
strengthen the mid-level flow over the upper ms valley and great
lakes regions, the modeled track of said MCV over north-central
lower mi will have little wiggle room outside of what is currently
depicted by the suite of 00 06z guidance. As such, confidence in the
evolution of sensible wx for tonight has taken a step upward. The
northern extent of the upstream instability reservoir will build
north and east, orienting along a quad-cities-to-chicago line by
this evening when developing mid-level forcing and diurnal
destabilization will facilitate the expansion of severe convection
while mostly stratiform precipitation develops within the
deformation zone of the MCV itself. At this stage, there is a high
likelihood that nocturnal convection propagating southeast along the
instability gradient will either miss the area altogether or graze
the southern tier of counties, particularly given that the current
strength of the MCV is more in line with the weaker side of guidance
suggesting instability may struggle to reach the cwa. Focus for most
of the CWA will instead be on the rather routine scenario of
convection bubbling within a poor lapse rate environment along the
lead edge of a strengthening nocturnal llj. Elevated thunder and
some heavy downpours within 1.5" pwat environment will characterize
the threat for most of the night over most or all of the cwa. A
marginal severe hail risk may exist after about 09z Tuesday morning
as the tail end of the MCV sweeps through the area coincident with
the lead edge of steeper lapse rates advecting northeast out of the
central plains.

Severe potential remains the focus for Tuesday and will be largely
conditional on the state of the instability gradient int he wake of
tonight's activity. Most, but not all, 00z guidance has made a
strong move toward a southward-displaced gradient that would support
a nil threat and temps in the 60s and 70s beneath diurnal stratocu
on Tuesday. Steep lapse rate environment will nonetheless warrant
monitoring as sufficient destabilization south of the front will
likely exist to capitalize on a robust unidirectional wind field and
moderate CAPE density supportive of both a wind and hail threat
potentially near the ohio border. Confidence increased on just chc
thunder on Wednesday north of the front as renewed height falls
emanating out of southern canada force instability well to the south.

Marine...

a generally modest northeasterly wind will prevail across the region
today. This flow may favor some localized enhancement of wind across
the longer fetch of saginaw bay, resulting in wind speeds up 20
knots at times. Elsewhere, winds generally at 10 to 15 knots through
the duration of the holiday. Dry conditions expected to hold through
the daylight period. An elevated frontal boundary will lift across
lower michigan tonight. This front will bring the potential for
thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday. A period of moderate easterly
winds will develop north of the boundary across lake huron overnight
into Tuesday morning, reaching 20 to 25 knots at times. Wind
potential along the nearshore waters will remain more limited,
precluding issuance of a small craft advisory at this time. To the
south, moderate southwest to west winds will exist over lake st
clair and lake erie on Tuesday. An unsettled pattern will maintain
the potential for thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

Hydrology...

an elevated warm frontal boundary lifting across lower michigan will
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tonight
through Tuesday morning. While greater potential for heavy rainfall
is currently forecast to remain south of the area, the possibility
for localized areas of heavier rain will exist. Basin average
rainfall totals between one quarter and one half inch can be
expected, but with locally higher totals in excess of an inch
possible. This may result in some flooding concerns for urbanized
and poor drainage areas.

Renewed shower and thunderstorm development may occur again Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a frontal boundry settles southward across
the region. Once again, greater focus for heavier rainfall will tend
to exist to the south, but some localized higher rainfall amounts
are possible within any thunderstorm activity. An unsettled pattern
will maintain the potential for thunderstorms, with an accompanying
localized heavy rainfall threat, both Wednesday and Thursday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz068-075-082-
083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi25 min NE 11 G 13 56°F 1019 hPa (+0.4)
45163 32 mi45 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 59°F 55°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi45 min NNE 2.9 G 8 55°F 1020 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi30 minNE 410.00 miFair59°F53°F82%1019.3 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi32 minENE 510.00 miFair59°F53°F81%1019.5 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi49 minN 010.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4NE3E3NE3CalmNE3N3NE8NE5E5E6E5E7E5E4E3E3SE3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS6S8SW14
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SW10SW8SW9SW10SW8SW7W6NW8NE9CalmCalm
2 days agoNW6N7CalmE6E7CalmCalmCalmS4SE9S4CalmS3SE4E5E5SE4SE7SE11E7SE8S17
G23
SE14SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.