Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:10PM Friday November 16, 2018 6:07 PM EST (23:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:19PMMoonset 12:12AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 338 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Cloudy. A slight chance of light snow early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of light snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201811170415;;406929 FZUS53 KDTX 162038 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 338 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-170415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 161951
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
251 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Discussion
Cold temperatures (around 10 degrees below normal) through the
weekend, with even colder air spilling in early next week.

Temperatures have been struggling to respond today (should
still top out in mid upper 30s vs normal highs in upper 40s), as
lingering cold low level cyclonic flow even allowing for pockets of
drizzle early this afternoon. Continuing drying of the mid levels,
lower inversion heights and increased mixing depths this afternoon
will diminish cloud depths, which should allow drizzle to wane, but
clouds likely holding through the night, holding temps mainly above
30 degrees.

Shortwave exiting the dakotas this afternoon appears to be dampening
out within the strong westerly flow as it moves through the great
lakes region tomorrow. The trend of the low level circulation ripple
moving through the midwest is farther south, as weak surface low
reaches western ohio river Saturday afternoon, far removed from the
upper level support (700-500 mb) which is closer to the southern
michigan border. Lift over southern lower michigan looks modest, and
main thing we got going is moisture advection, as 850-700 mb
increases to around 3 g kg, with the axis along and south of i-94.

Will adjust the higher snow pops toward the south, and still think
we will be hard pressed to see much more than a dusting to 1 inch
with just 2-6 hours of weak forcing to work with. Latest RUC holds
off snow until around noon across the bulk of southeast michigan,
and if that is the case, there really will be minimal impacts on the
highways as temps should be above freezing. Have also noted the 12z
euro has backed off on QPF as well.

Pronounced surface ridge bubble high to build in Saturday night,
allowing winds to go calm. The question is will lake michigan clouds
retreat closer to lakeshore, allowing southeast michigan to become
mostly clear, and thus allowing temps to dip into the teens across
the normally colder locations. Otherwise, if some clouds work
through, flurries are not out of the question with optimal 850 mb
temps around -10 c. Low level lapse rates really steepen up during
the day on Sunday, and NAM soundings even indicating some marginal
cape, but below the -10 c isotherm, so thinking there may be a CU up
at worst, as temperatures climb predominately into the mid 30s. Will
have to watch potentially active fgen zone just south of the
michigan border during Sunday, as shortwave through tracks through
the midwest.

Amplifying longwave trough over the great lakes region on Monday,
with high pressure descending from the arctic circle tracking into
the northern great lakes Monday night, resulting in 850 mb temps
lowering to -10 to -14 c by Tuesday morning over lower michigan. As
usual, cloud cover will ultimately determine if we fall into the teens
or hold in the lower 20s.

Continued cloud cover Tuesday and northwesterly flow bring another
round of below- normal temperatures with daytime highs peaking in the
upper- 20s to mid-30s across the state, before dropping down into
the teens to lower-20s for overnight lows. Flow is expected to turn
more zonal into Wednesday which will moderate temperatures slightly,
allowing slightly warmer westerly flow to increase temperatures into
the 30s across SE mi. Increased subsidence from an advancing high
pressure system and advent of dry air in the low to mid-levels will
also bring the chance to see some sunshine peak through the clouds
during the later part of the day Wednesday.

Moderate to high confidence to see a pattern shift starting Thursday
onwards as a shortwave trough carves across the plains and sets up a
ridge of higher pressure across the midwest, which will act to bring
temperatures back to normal for mid to late-november. While the gefs
ensemble members were not on board with the warmer trend yesterday
at 12z, today's 12z run displays a warming trend in the 40s Friday
and into the weekend. ECMWF runs have showed a warming pattern for a
better part of the week now and continue to show temperatures
peaking in the 40s Thursday into the weekend. 00z ecm MOS guidance
is the most aggressive with temperatures, hinting at upper 40s to 50
degrees Thursday and Friday for the metro region. For official
forecast, will stay slightly conservative with forecasted
temperatures in the low to mid-40s but will bump up temperatures in
the coming day if persistence between model runs hold over the next
24 hours. Increased subsidence from high pressure will also aid in
reducing cloud cover, bringing increased chances for sunshine during
the later part of next week.

Increasing pressure and dry low to mid-levels will keep
precipitation chances minimal during the midweek period. Slight
chance to see precipitation leading into next weekend, however, not
enough convergence is seen between model runs to accurately pinpoint
pop and location at this time.

Marine
Departing low pressure to the northeast will lead to continued west-
northwest winds over the waters tonight, gusting to near gale force
this evening and weakening overnight. Elevated wave action in outer
saginaw bay and the nearshore waters off the northern thumb will
result in hazardous small craft conditions through Saturday morning.

Winds and wave action will weaken by Saturday as high pressure
builds into the region from the west. Northwest flow will persist,
peaking around 20 kt during the afternoon. Scattered snow showers
will be possible over the lakes late tonight through Saturday before
conditions dry out Sunday. Southwest winds will pick up over lake
huron on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching cold front, and gusts to 25 kt will be possible during
the afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1245 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
aviation...

surface trough moving through this afternoon evening is leading to
ifr CIGS across the area which will persist through the early
afternoon. Southwest winds gusting on the order of 20 kt will shift
to west as the trough passes over, then weaken this evening. Cigs
will recover to MVFR by late afternoon and hold through the evening
and overnight with ample low level moisture in place. A period of
lowVFR will also be possible as the inversion sets up in the 3-5
kft range tonight. Another passing upper wave will bring periods of
light snow showers back to the area Saturday morning into the
afternoon - best chance for the i-94 terminals.

For dtw... Ovc CIGS likely lowering to ifr or borderline ifr this
afternoon as surface trough moves through. Based on current
observational trends, improvement back to MVFR will take several
hours. MVFR will linger through the overnight with a small chance
for CIGS to improve to lowVFR. Light snow will likely return to the
airspace Saturday, likely starting around 15z and persisting much of
the day. Gusty west winds this afternoon will weaken overnight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this evening.

* high for precip type of snow on Saturday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Saturday for lhz421-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

Discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Tf
aviation... ..Tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi68 min WSW 20 G 23 37°F 1010.2 hPa (+2.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi28 min SW 19 G 22 36°F 1011.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi28 min WSW 8 G 15 36°F 1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi13 minWSW 97.00 miOvercast36°F32°F87%1012.9 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi15 minWSW 127.00 miOvercast36°F32°F86%1013.7 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi13 minWSW 57.00 miOvercast36°F33°F88%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW3SW3SW5SW6SW6SW7SW8SW7SW7SW8SW7SW6SW6SW8SW8SW9SW9
1 day agoNE5E4E3E6E3E4SE3SE4CalmNE4NE4E5NE3NE4NE6NE6E6E6E5E5E4E3E4E3
2 days agoW14W12
G17
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G17
NW9W8W8W7SW8W11W10
G14
W8W9W6W9W8W9NW9N5NE4NE3CalmE5E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.