Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:18PM Friday February 23, 2018 3:39 PM EST (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 11:49AMMoonset 1:37AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 958 Am Est Fri Feb 23 2018
.gale watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Light showers late in the morning.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Cloudy.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy in the late morning and early afternoon becoming mostly cloudy.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Light snow showers likely early in the evening...then a chance of light snow showers late in the evening. Rain showers in the late evening and overnight. Gales will be possible beyond the forecast period. Please refer to the open lakes forecast for more information. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201802232215;;428921 FZUS53 KDTX 231458 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 958 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-232215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231704
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1204 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Aviation
Rain showers have exited. Southwest winds (10-14 kts) this afternoon
allowing for improvement in ceiling heights and visibility. However,
enough low level moisture likely around to lock CIGS in at MVFR.

Winds becoming light northwest this evening and then light northeast
tomorrow morning. Confidence in CIGS is lower this evening into
tomorrow, as it is possible for clearing to take place late this
evening, especially over the southern TAF sites (dtw yip det).

For dtw... As surface winds come around to the northwest this
evening, it is possible for partial clearing of the low clouds. If
MVFR clouds do scatter out in the 3-8z time frame, descent chance
they would return Saturday morning as winds become light northeast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5 kft through early this evening, then low to
medium.

Prev discussion
Issued at 348 am est Fri feb 23 2018
discussion...

a moistening 2000 ft deep low level easterly flow maintaining
residence locally early this morning, tucked beneath a broadening
region of mid level warm air advection sustained under increasing
southwest flow. Lack of greater ascent thus far mitigating a more
productive precipitation response, with simply some hints of drizzle
noted on radar at times along the in mi border. This strip of higher
near surface saturation will begin to work into southern sections
going forward this morning, presenting a window for some drizzle to
emerge. Highest potential with southward extent prior to 13z, where
temperatures now reside at or above freezing. A slowly warming
thermal profile in combination with the lack of coverage intensity
will minimize freezing rain drizzle potential and any resultant
ice accretion.

Shortwave embedded within the mean southwesterlies will shear across
lake superior today. This trajectory will position the strongest
forcing to the northwest. Southeast michigan will see a quick shot
of stronger isentropic ascent within the broader corridor of warm
air advection anchoring the eastern flank of this system. This will
provide a small window during the late morning period for a greater
coverage of light rain. Aggressive mid level drying in the wake of
the attendant frontal passage will then bring a progressive end to
precip chances by early afternoon. Generally milder conditions today
as low level flow briefly turns southerly. Highs ranging from mid
40s north to near 50 south. Cooler air then drains back in tonight
under veering low level flow as high pressure briefly builds across
the northern great lakes. This will land lows Saturday morning back
around or just below the freezing mark.

Strong height falls spilling into the desert southwest will
reinvigorate the southwest flow over the weekend, prompting a strong
upper jet response and subsequent northeast transport of gulf
moisture within the warm sector. Retention of drier easterly low
level flow sustained by high pressure anchored to the north may
provide a defined northern gradient to the lead moisture axis
anchored within the blossoming moist isentropic ascent wing. This
will leave areas closer to the ohio border with the greatest
potential for witnessing some light precipitation on Saturday. A
marginal thermal profile with sub-freezing early day wet bulb
temperatures suggest a brief light mix is plausible before diurnal
warming tips the ptype solidly to liquid. Afternoon temperatures
again largely climbing into the 40s.

Dynamic system rapidly lifts into the western great lakes during the
latter half of the weekend. Period of strongest ascent associated
with this system centered Saturday night, translating into
widespread rainfall but with the heaviest QPF axis likely contained
within any convection to the south. Strong early day cold frontal
passage and a trailing firm pressure gradient as the surface low
steadily deepens while racing north will then bring dry but gusty
conditions on Sunday. The potential will exist for a period of gusts
to reach or exceed 40 mph during this time.

Marine...

weak low pressure will track northeast across the northern great
lakes today with light to occasionally moderate southeast flow
gradually veering to the southwest with time. High pressure will
then build into the region from the west with continued light flow
veering northerly with time. The flow will become east southeasterly
late Saturday and into Saturday night ahead of developing low
pressure across the central plains. This area of low pressure will
rapidly deepen as it tracks northeast across the northern great
lakes, leading to decreased stability and a tight pressure gradient
across the local waters. Gale watches will go into effect for all of
the lake huron waters late Saturday night through Sunday for
potential gusts approaching 40 knots.

Hydrology...

flood warnings remain in effect for most of the primary river basins
over southeast michigan as water levels begin to slowly recede. Weak
low pressure tracking northwest of the region will bring a period of
light rainfall today, with amounts under a quarter of an inch.

Another low pressure system will track northwest of the region late
Saturday night and into Sunday. With slightly better moisture to
work with, rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch to half an inch
will be possible. This rainfall is not expected to have any
significant impacts to local rivers and streams.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for lhz363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for
lhz361-362.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Irl
hydrology... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi39 min SW 15 G 16 37°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi59 min SSW 17 G 18 35°F 1017.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi59 min SW 7 G 9.9 38°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE7
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G17
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G15
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G22
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N9
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N6
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NE5
G8
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NE8
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E13
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G15
NE12
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NE12
G15
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G14
NE9
G12
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S14
G18
S12
S10
G16
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G15
SW19
G27
SW6
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G11
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G10
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G11
NW10
G18
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G13
N15
N10
G13
NW8
G13
N14
G17
N17
N17
N15
G19
N17
N14
G20
N14
G17
N13
N11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi46 minWSW 106.00 miFog/Mist42°F39°F92%1018.2 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi44 minWSW 1410.00 miOvercast43°F41°F93%1017.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi44 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast43°F40°F92%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE15NE14NE15NE12NE11NE14E9E8E6E10E8SE3E7E10SE9SE8S7S6SW5SW7SW7SW9W10
1 day agoN5N4N4N4CalmCalmN6N6N6NE5E9E8E7E8E9NE8NE9NE8NE10NE11E12NE13NE14NE10
2 days agoS10S13S15
G22
W10S7S9S10SW10W13W7W11W12NW9NW10NW8NW10N10N10N9N8N9N7N9N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.