Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 9:10PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:49 AM EDT (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:24AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 336 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then becoming light and variable early in the afternoon becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest early in the afternoon...then veering to the northwest late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy until early morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201707221500;;634895 FZUS53 KDTX 220736 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-221500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 220948
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
548 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Aviation
Northern edge of showers associated with an MCV tracking east near
the ohio border should clip the detroit=area terminals through 12-
13z. Embedded thunderstorms will most likely stay just to the south,
as should additional activity back over southern lake michigan and
wisconsin. Further to the north, showers are working in from the
west, and should impact sites from ptk north, but at a less generous
coverage. An axis of deeper moisture is working into the area this
morning with a warm front, and should drop ceilings to MVFR by mid-
morning. This axis will slide south this afternoon, and with help
from daytime heating mixing, should allow ceilings to lift back to
vfr. Morning round of showers clouds should help stabilize the
atmosphere for the afternoon evening, with only isolated
showers tstorms are expected to develop.

For dtw... Showers associated with MCV should exit east by 13z, with
activity currently over wisconsin looking to slide just to the south
of the terminal. Lightning looks more likely to stay south of
dtw... But cannot completely rule out. Tsra this afternoon evening
will be limited in coverage, with probability of impacting the
terminal too low to include in taf.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms through the TAF period.

* medium for cigs AOB 5000 feet from mid-morning through afternoon.

Low tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 243 am edt Sat jul 22 2017
discussion...

while the heaviest concentration of thunderstorm activity continues
to propagate into highest theta-e airmass from indiana back west to
northern illinois eastern iowa, gradually veering low level jet
associated with surface troughing warm front snaking into area from
upper level low pressure poised just north of north dakota will act
to feed some of the higher theta-e air into lower michigan late
tonight into much of Saturday.

This will maintain a muddled area of convection north of the main
storm clusters, especially this morning as last of lift within
entrance region of exiting jet streak helps invigorate the activity
within broad area of weak ascent. While severe weather potential is
very low with this activity, the passage of warm front trough will
bring pwat values in excess of 2.00 inches, so locally heavy rain
remains a possibly (mainly south of the m-59 corridor).

While convective activity will lessen from mid morning into the
afternoon, models suggest weak low level convergence will remain as
weak cyclogenesis occurs due to jet energy slight height falls
associated with the aforementioned upper system over the southern
canadian prairie provinces.

The upper system then tracks along us canadian border and digs into
the northern central great lakes Sunday Sunday night. Region of
height falls in advance of this upper low will expand and result in
a surface low meandering near the area into Sunday night. All this
will lead to a continue chance of scattered showers thunderstorms,
especially Sunday afternoon evening as cold front pivots southeast
into area.

Between the low level forcing provided by this front, and upper
support from digging shortwave, expect coverage of convection to
expand (especially given favorable diurnal timing from mid late
afternoon into early evening). While mid upper level wind fields
will be more conducive to severe wind gusts with storms, low level
forcing convergence is very much in question and will ultimately be
determined by the location of the weak low pressure locked to the
increasing height falls associated with the approaching shortwave.

Warm and humid conditions can be expected today and to some degree
into Sunday as this system encroaches on the region. Thereafter,
high pressure will build into area early in the week in the wake of
late Sunday cold front. This will lead to cooler and less humid
conditions in the Monday Tuesday time frame.

A second upper low is then expected to cross southern canada and
push another cold front into area by roughly Wednesday night. Some
increase in temperatures and humid can be expected within southwest
flow in advance of this front with a round of showers thunderstorms
also possible during this time frame. In its wake, another canadian
high pressure system will bring a slightly cooler and less humid
airmass back to the area through the remainder of the week. During
this Thursday Friday period, any shower activity will be minimal and
most likely subdued to the south southwest of the area around the
periphery of the high pressure.

Marine...

winds will turn south to southeast today ahead of low pressure
moving into the area. Wind speeds will remain below 15 knots for
most areas, but gusts may occasionally top 20 knots over western
lake erie where the gradient will be a little stronger. Winds will
then weaken overnight and Sunday for most locations as the low
tracks overhead, while increasing to 15 to 20 knots on the north
side of the system over the northern half of lake huron. Winds will
back to the north Sunday night and Monday behind a cold front as as
high pressure builds in from the west.

The best potential to see showers and thunderstorms this weekend
will be this morning (mainly over lakes erie and st clair), and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Hydrology...

round of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, working across
lower michigan early today should mainly impact areas along and
south of the i-69 corridor. Potential exists for these areas to see
greater than 0.25 inches of rainfall, with locations along and south
of i-94 possibly picking up just under an inch of rain by late
morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Hlo
discussion... Dg
marine... ... .Hlo
hydrology... .Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi50 min NE 6 G 9.9 73°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.7)
45163 35 mi50 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 73°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi50 min NW 5.1 G 13 70°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.4)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi70 min NW 2.9 G 6 69°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi57 minE 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist71°F70°F96%1011 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi56 minNNE 75.00 miLight Rain68°F66°F94%1011.2 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi56 minESE 37.00 miLight Rain71°F69°F94%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NW7N6CalmS334W8SW11SW6W7S6S7S6SW6SW5S5SE4SE5SW5CalmSE3SW3E8
1 day agoW4W9W13W10W12W10W8W14W15W12W11SW9W10SW9SW8SW6SW7W6W5W4CalmNW3NW5NW6
2 days agoS3S3SW5NW3N4E3Calm3N6NW5NW8NW9
G14
NW7NE4SE3SE4S4CalmSE5SE6SE7S5S6SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.