Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:04PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 3:02 AM EDT (07:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:56AMMoonset 5:26PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 948 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then backing to the east late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a chance of light showers in the late evening and overnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the morning. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201705230900;;054686 FZUS53 KDTX 230155 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 948 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ422-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230419
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1219 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Aviation
A baroclinic zone at 700mb will become increasingly more organized
tonight north of I 69, ahead of the amplifying midlevel trough over
the upper mississippi river valley. Uncertainty persists with
overall potential and longevity for precipitation as a shortwave
ridging component will also work across the area. Quite a little
consensus forming that a duration of light rain will be possible
under this front over the tri cities region. Included a tempo group
for the mid morning hours but did not want to get anymore
pessimistic than MVFR for cigs. Otherwise, high confidence continues
that little to no precipitation chances will exist Tuesday morning
for the detroit terminals. Most recent trend has been for higher
probs creeping into the percentages for greater than .25 inch qpf
Tuesday afternoon north of I 69. Wind is not expected to become an
issue during the next 24 to 36 hours.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 315 pm edt Mon may 22 2017
discussion...

not much time to dry out, as rain chances increase over next 48
hours. 70-75 knot jet core at 500 mb/110-115 knots at 300 mb exiting
northeast early this evening, with moisture advection and right
entrance forcing already bringing a scattered/chance of showers
(remote chance of a thunderstorm) as we become modestly unstable
with li's nearing zero over tri-cities region. Narrow, but
potentially sufficient 850-700 mb theta-e moisture axis, with pw
values around 1 inch move over northern half of the CWA toward 12z
Tuesday, stalling out over the rest of southeast michigan during
Tuesday. Modestly unstable daytime instability (mlcapes 250-500
j/kg), weak low level convergence, and leftover moisture axis could
be enough to trigger convection but upper level shortwave ridge axis
in place may be enough of a deterrent. Overall, will be favoring
mostly scattered coverage for both tonight and tomorrow, with pops
hovering around 50 percent north of m-59 and quickly tapering off
south. Mav/met guidance appears to be too aggressive tomorrow
compared to local probabilistic SREF weighted guidance. Inherited
temps tonight/tomorrow looked reasonable with low level warm
advection pushing 925 mb temps at or above 15 c by tomorrow
afternoon, supportive of lower 70s.

Large upper level low centered near northern minnesota will sink
south into the midwest tomorrow and reaching the southern
mississippi river valley late tomorrow. With placement of warm
conveyor belt arching back through the northern ohio valley. One
issue is the lead low/storm system riding along the gulf coast
today/tomorrow, reaching the mid atlantic coast early Wednesday
morning. How much impact will this system have on the moisture
transport? It appears it will just have a temporary disruption/
impact, as the main low deepens over the ohio valley during
Wednesday. Good deformation showers expected to spread over
southeast michigan by Wednesday evening, with substantial rainfall
(greater than half an inch), as 850 mb dew pts of 10 c arrive, per
12z canadian/euro. Although, 12z euro may be exhibiting its typical
bias of over-deepening the low by Thursday morning, as NAM is 8 mb
weaker, so not fully on-board with QPF in excess of 1 inch just yet
with what looks like modest instability.

An upper-level cut-off low situated over the ohio valley will bring
on and off rain chances throughout Thursday as temperatures peak in
the mid to upper-60s. The cut-off low is expected to push northeast
throughout Friday as an upper-level ridge pushes across the great
lakes. This will act to scour out some cloud cover and bring
relatively dry conditions through the day, although some embedded
short-waves could provide the low chance for a light pop-up shower.

For the extended weekend, a weak surface low is expected to move
east across in/oh Saturday into Sunday as an upper-level ridge
pushes across michigan, which would hold prolonged rain chances just
south of the mi/oh border. Slightly better rain chances are
forecasted for Sunday as a trough swings through from the central
plains, pushing a weak warm front through southern michigan.

Additional rain chances possible on Monday, although only the gfs
run is picking up on measurable rain chances as it develops and
pushes a low from ia into northern lower mi. Overall, the main
message for rain chances -- weak forcing will allows for spotty rain
chances during the extended period, with Friday into early Saturday
bring having the highest odds to stay relatively dry. Higher
confidence regarding forecasted highs -- mid to upper-60s for
Thursday, with a warming trend into the 70s starting Friday and
continuing through memorial day.

Marine...

diminishing wind during the late afternoon and evening will allow
ongoing small craft advisories to expire on time. The wind will
continue to ease after sunset and remain light through Tuesday. A
weak surface trough will separate northern and southern lake huron
until dissipating Tuesday night in favor of the next low pressure
system. This low will produce an active rain pattern and bring up a
moderate northeast wind over marine areas Wednesday into Thursday.

The long fetch of onshore flow could result in waves exceeding small
craft advisory threshold for saginaw bay and southern lake huron.

Hydrology...

low pressure developing over the ohio valley Wednesday will stall
and intensify through Wednesday night. A band of rain is expected to
develop on the north side of the system and spread into lower
michigan mainly during Wednesday night. Rainfall totals averaging
0.75 inch are likely with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Ponding of water on area roads and in other prone areas is likely,
especially considering the widespread activity over the weekend that
left the ground saturated in most areas.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Sf/am
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi62 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 1010.8 hPa (-1.7)
45163 35 mi42 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 54°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi79 min WNW 1.9 G 7 58°F 1012.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi82 min SSW 5.1 G 11 55°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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W6
SW8
G11
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G17
SW10
G14
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G14
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G17
W12
G21
SW13
G20
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G22
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G21
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G25
W13
G17
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G15
W13
G18
W11
G18
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G15
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G18
W6
SW5
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SW4
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1 day
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SE7
S11
SE17
SE15
S15
G19
S12
G16
S13
G18
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G21
S14
G17
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G17
S11
G19
S11
S8
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SE14
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SE11
G14
SW2
G7
W8
G15
W10
G13
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G14
W6
G10
W4
W9
G12
2 days
ago
NE17
NE16
G20
NE16
G21
E15
G19
NE13
G16
NE9
G12
NE7
NE7
NE12
NE14
G17
NE14
G17
NE16
N4
NE7
E17
E10
SE9
G12
S7
SE8
E4
E5
E7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi70 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F50°F70%1011.8 hPa
Saginaw, Saginaw County H.W. Browne Airport, MI13 mi67 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F44°F55%1011.5 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi69 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F48°F79%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW13SW11SW13SW13SW12
G19
SW16W17
G23
W19
G24
SW16
G23
W18
G24
W19
G26
SW17
G28
W18
G24
SW18
G23
W13W9SW4S4S4SE4SW7SW8SW6
1 day agoE13NE5N3NE4E6SE4SE7CalmS6S9S11SW10SW12W13
G22
SW14
G21
W13
G22
W15
G24
W9W11SW10SW10
G19
W17
G22
W13W10
2 days agoE11E9E8E12E13E12E12E13
G19
E16
G21
E16
G25
NE21NE20
G24
E12E12E15
G26
E14E12NE8E8E7NE8E9E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.