Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 2:23 AM   Moonset 11:44 AM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 927 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Rest of tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear this evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 012303 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms (70-80% chance) return on Friday.

AVIATION

Clear sky across SE Mi is the result of slightly cooler but much drier air trailing the cold front that is now east of the region.
Westerly wind gusting in the 25-35 kt range during the afternoon quickly decouples with sunset and settles into a light NW direction as weak high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest. The high also supports VFR under clear sky with a few patches of cirrus tonight and much of Thursday. It's not until late in the day when a more notable increase in mid and high clouds occurs accompanied by light wind becoming a lake breeze enhanced SE direction into Thursday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

DISCUSSION...

The ongoing passage of a cold front, which coincides with peak diurnal heating, have allowed daytime highs to push into the mid to upper 70s. The capped and dry environment along the front will inhibit showers production and at best has been met with cumulus congestus along and ahead of the front. Deep mid to upper level subsidence in the wake of the front coupled with mixing will prevent cloud cover from redeveloping. This brings sunny skies for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Ongoing breezy conditions with gusts 25 to 35 mph will cease after sunset as the stable layer settles in. For tonight, very subtle cold air advection coupled with generally clear skies (outside of periodic cirrus), will drop temperatures into the 40s for a low.

Diffuse surface high pressure alongside shortwave ridging aloft will bring another round of dry conditions tomorrow. The possible exception will be the shallow corridor of weak system relative isentropic ascent centered around h800 that will bring the low-end chance to see sprinkles or a stray shower through the afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low for measurable precipitation to constitute any PoP values above 15%. Otherwise, temperature highs return into the 70s, outside of the Tri-Cities and bordering shoreline, as northeast flow ushers cooler air inland. A stark difference along the shoreline will be felt with highs in the mid 50s.

An upper-level wave stemming from a meandering upper-low across the Central Plains will pinch off into the upper Great lakes Friday, which will amplifying the aforementioned ridge downstream across the southern Great Lakes. This will usher in temperatures that will rival today, characterized by h850 temperatures up to 15C by Friday morning. With the warmer air will come the amplified Gulf stream moisture, pushing PW values aoa 1.20 inches. A shortwave trough will capitalize on the enhanced moisture and will likely bring periods of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms, with the best chances centered Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm potential and characteristics of thunderstorms are still under question as this period falls outside the hi-res window (outside of 3km NAM). The GFS/3KM NAM showcase low-level capping and inhibit CAPE potential, while the NAM affords a period of free convection with a marginal wind threat. Modeled analogs do not highlight strong or severe storm potential which is the ongoing message at this time.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances exist both Saturday and Sunday under the warm airmass with shallow moisture, but again capping with resident dry air in the mid-level uncertainty is high regarding upscale growth potential. The potential for unsettled weather will continue into next week with long-range models projecting the development of low pressure across the northern Plains to western portions of the midwest, which will reinforce warm and unstable conditions across the Great Lakes.

MARINE...

Gusty southwest to westerly flow within the immediate wake of cold frontal passage will persist through the evening hours, before gradually diminishing with loss of daytime heating. This will maintain small craft conditions from Saginaw Bay to the lake Huron nearshore waters along the tip of the thumb. Modest wind speed from the northwest expected overnight and early Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds establish an easterly component late Thursday as the high exits the region. A low pressure system is forecast to track across the northern great lakes Friday. This will draw a cold front through lower Michigan, bringing increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds holding from the southeast at less than 20 knots in advance of this front Friday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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