Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 6:46PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:24 AM EDT (14:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:32AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 935 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201710192115;;089863 FZUS53 KDTX 191335 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 935 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-192115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 191120
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
720 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Aviation
Frontal boundary pushing southward through southeastern michigan
this morning will lead to additional drying sub 800mb to an airmass
that had already been lacking moisture. A well developed, compact
anticylonic circulation will then roll across lower michigan this
afternoon and tonight. Nil moisture and dynamic support for
subsidence will bring little cloud outside of thin cirrus canopy.

There is moderate to high confidence that westerly wind gusts will
reach and exceed 15 knots.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 348 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
discussion...

a dry cold front is beginning to march across the great lakes as
advertised with little in the way of even clouds with it.

Compression of the the SW gradient is keeping winds elevated through
the rest of the night morning. Afternoon mixing will keep some gusts
through the afternoon, otherwise winds will die off tonight. A
narrow band of clouds will slide across mi with the front, but will
impact the forecast minimally. Most notable change to the forecast
in the near term is the downward adjustment to dewpoints into the
afternoon. Obs show the dry air and subsidence over wi resulting in
quick drops in dewpoints from 40s into the upper teens. With the
front weakening, the driest air more to the north, and airmass
modification over the lakes, we shouldn't be getting that dry but
could flirt with values near 30f across the north. Otherwise,
another day with temperatures rising into the mid upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday will continue the pleasant weather we've been
experiencing for the last week or so now. Large area of surface high
pressure quickly builds back into southern great lakes while we
still reside on the western side of the ridge with warm
southwesterly flow. Longwave ridge will undergo strong amplification
Friday in response to strong troughing moving inland off the
pacific. The pattern will stall temporarily as it continues to
deepen but will eventually get forces east by the next strong wave
surging across southern canada. This will send a stalling frontal
boundary into southern mi late Sunday and overnight. Models begin to
diverge significantly heading into the start of the new week. Euro
wants to stall the front over southern mi while the GFS keeps it
more progressive. So will continue to forecast precipitation
centered around Sunday night and will adjust as necessary in the
coming forecasts.

Model do tend to agree that cooler weather looks to be in store for
the middle of next week. An upper level trough will drop into the
region with northerly flow originating from northern canada. This
would bring one of the coldest airmasses of the season into the
region likely lingering through the end of the week.

Marine...

gusty southwest winds have persisted overnight over much of the
central great lakes ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread
observations have been reported with southwest winds of 25 to 30
knots. Winds will begin to ease late this morning and afternoon in
response to increasing high pressure behind a shallow cold front.

Winds this afternoon will still range between 15 to 20 knots in many
areas. Dry conditions are expected for the end of the week and for
much of the upcoming weekend. However, southwest winds are expected
to remain in the 15 to 20 knot range in response to strong gradient
ahead of a northern plain states low pressure system.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-422-
441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi85 min WSW 18 G 22 57°F 1015.6 hPa (+2.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi45 min SW 17 G 20 56°F 1016.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi45 min WSW 8 G 13 56°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
9
AM
Last
24hr
SW9
G13
SW10
G13
SW10
G14
SW16
SW16
G25
SW14
G19
SW13
G18
SW13
G20
S10
G14
S10
S6
G9
S11
G14
SW10
G13
SW11
SW13
G16
SW15
SW13
G20
SW11
G14
SW10
G14
SW11
G14
W9
G14
1 day
ago
SW13
G18
SW13
G20
SW12
G24
W17
G28
W17
G21
W17
G26
W16
G21
W11
G19
W11
G16
W6
G11
W8
G11
W10
G13
W7
G11
W5
SW7
SW4
SW9
SW10
G13
SW10
G14
SW8
G11
SW9
G13
SW9
SW9
G12
SW11
G15
2 days
ago
W2
G6
N7
G10
N6
G9
NE5
E3
E4
SE6
SE5
G9
SW6
SW4
SW5
S6
SW7
SW7
SW7
SW6
SW6
SW6
G9
SW9
SW9
G12
SW11
G15
SW12
G15
SW11
G17
SW14
G19

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi32 minW 1110.00 miFair58°F48°F72%1018.2 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi32 minWSW 710.00 miFair57°F46°F67%1017.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi31 minW 810.00 miFair57°F47°F70%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hrSW11SW14
G22
S16S16
G22
SW17
G24
SW16S16SW14S8S9S9S9S10S11SW15
G26
SW16
G21
SW15
G23
SW15SW15SW13SW13SW10SW10W11
1 day agoSW18
G23
SW18
G23
SW18
G32
W17
G25
SW15
G27
SW18
G27
W19
G24
W18
G25
W11SW8SW6SW6S6S7SW6SW9SW7SW7SW6S7S7S7S8SW10
2 days ago34S5SW9S6SW10SW10SW8S5S5S4S5S5S6S7S6S8S7S9SW7SW8S9S11SW16

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.