Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:32 AM EST (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 10:01PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 957 Pm Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southeast early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A chance of light snow early in the afternoon. Light snow late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Light snow early in the evening, then a chance of light snow late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201812121015;;658782 FZUS53 KDTX 120257 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 957 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-121015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 120507
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1207 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Aviation
Weak high pressure has filled in over lower michigan trailing the
front that settled into ohio during the evening. The moisture laden
boundary layer within the weak surface high maintains borderline
MVFRVFR stratus trapped under a strong inversion centered around
3500 ft in the 00z dtx sounding. The inversion remains strong during
the night although some breaks in coverage remain possible due to
weak difluent diverging flow within the surface high and as the wind
profile veers ahead of the low pressure system approaching from iowa.

Timing and duration of breaks remain low confidence but fog is less
of a concern as high clouds thicken considerably above the stratus
layer. The exception could be moisture off lake erie and lake st
clair contributing to both renewed stratus coverage and fog
development near dtw up to about ptk around sunrise. Otherwise, the
low and associated front then bring potential for snow Wednesday
afternoon which could be limited by moisture supply to the system but
is most likely to produce a short period of entry level ifr
visibility at mbs and fnt. Lower intensity and or a rain snow mix is
more likely from ptk through the dtw corridor during mid afternoon
into Wednesday evening.

For dtw... Borderline MVFRVFR ceiling continues through the night
with a few low confidence breaks in terms of timing and duration.

Concern has eased for haze and or fog until around sunrise as MVFR
stratus and fog associated with the front and southeast flow from
lake erie begin to increase move back northward. Precipitation by
mid to late afternoon likely begins as a light rain snow mix with
above freezing surface temperatures before changing to snow Wednesday
evening. Accumulation potential is limited to a half inch and mainly
on unpaved surfaces.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cig below 5000 ft through the TAF period.

* moderate for ptype as snow by Wednesday evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 315 pm est Tue dec 11 2018
discussion...

upper level wave trough sliding through the eastern great lakes this
evening, with northwest confluent flow surface ridging over
southeast michigan. Trapped low level moisture underneath the
subsidence inversion still persists, and low clouds expected to hold
mins in the 20s, as low level warm advection begins to kick in later
tonight as well, with 850 mb temps reaching around 0 c by Wednesday
morning.

Dry airmass in place over the southern plains today, with 12z raobs
indicating pw values generally running under 50 percent of normal
values (nebraska oklahoma northern texas). Thus, despite would looks
to be good forcing tomorrow, the lack of deeper moisture is expected
to limit precip amounts.

Strong upper wave tracking through nebraska south dakota this
afternoon will continue to spin wrap up over the midwest tonight,
and fairly narrow moisture axis (specific humidity of 3 g kg from
850-700 mb) progged to slide through the CWA late Wednesday early
Wednesday evening, with good upper level divergence and burst of
isentropic ascent (284 k) which should be good enough to at least
generate precipitation (although bulk of solutions continue to
advertise QPF being a tenth or less). Mid level lapse rates also
look to be steep, in excess of 8 c km from 700-500 mb. The warm axis
ahead of the low will tend to get pinched off, as the low levels
near the surface remain fairy dry, and wet bulb zero heights under
1000 feet (per nam) suggest bulk of precipitation will fall as wet
snow, but limited duration (~3 hr) at any given location should lead
to most locations staying under 1 inch, as some melting occurs as
well with temps mainly just above freezing. It appears the northern
thumb region midland bay counties stand the best chance of seeing an
inch or slightly more with modestly better thermal profiles forcing,
per local probabilistic guidance and 12z hires-arw.

Mid level circulation cold pool (-13 c at 700 mb) to slide east
around midnight, and robust post wave subsidence advertised
overnight to shut off precipitation with limited cold air advection,
as 925 mb temps fall to perhaps -4 c at 925 mb by 12z Thursday, the
coldest solution. Assuming some sunshine develops on Thursday,
should be able to get into the upper 30s, with good warm advection
pattern then kicking in Thursday night, and some fog development is
possible if the higher dew pts come in faster than expected over the
frozen ground in place. Either way, increasing chance of
precipitation with warm front lifting through Thursday night, its
possible could briefly start out frozen, especially north of i-69.

A weak upper-level shortwave and right entrance dynamics from a jet
streak will provide enough lift to have the chance for rain Friday
morning and afternoon, as an increase in WAA allows temperatures to
peak in the lower 40s for a daytime high. Better convergence is now
seen regarding a southern-tracking cut-off low, at least between the
ecwmf and gfs, keeping the low well south of the of the great lakes,
from texas eastward. This increases confidence to see dry weather
through the weekend as surface high pressure builds across the
state. The gem continues to suggest the cut-off low will steer
northeast from louisiana into the ohio valley, which would bring
the chances for rain throughout Saturday. As a result, opted to keep
the inherited slight chance to chance of rain showers for Saturday.

Otherwise, higher pressure and lack of meaningful forcing will
produce dry weather across SE mi on Sunday as milder air holds
across the state, keeping daytime highs in the lower 40s. Low
confidence regarding pop and precipitation type early next week
period as long-range model runs diverge on the passage of a
potential cold front. The ECMWF run pushes a weak cold frontal
boundary across the state Monday into Tuesday, but high surface
pressure holds off any precipitation chances. The GFS pushes a
strong cold front Monday into Tuesday which would introduce lake
effect snow chances to michigan, with a weaker signal for lake
effect seen in the gem run. GEFS runs trend toward a warmer solution
relative to the operational gfs, thus opted to leave lake effect
snow chances out of the forecast for early next week until further
convergence is noted.

Marine...

southwest winds will become northwest the remainder of today and
into tonight behind a weak cold front passage. Gusts to around 20
knots will be common through this evening, before trending light
overnight as surface high pressure ridging moves across the region.

Fresh and moderate southeast flow of 20-25 knots will develop
Wednesday ahead of an approaching compact midlevel disturbance that
will bring a period of scattered rain snow showers late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Moderate south to southeast flow
will continue Thursday into Friday, with gusty northeast flow
potentially developing over the lake huron basin this weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from noon today to 4 am est Thursday for
lhz441-442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi32 min W 6 G 6 31°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi52 min WNW 6 G 7 30°F 1018.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi52 min NW 4.1 G 8 30°F 1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi39 minSSW 49.00 miOvercast29°F25°F85%1018.3 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast28°F24°F86%1017.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast31°F26°F83%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13SW12SW9
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W11W11W9W10NW13NW9NW8W9--W8W8W6W9W7W5SW3SW4SW4
1 day agoW4W4W4NW4W5W5W3S5S5S7S6S6SW7SW9SW8SW10SW7S8SW10SW10S11SW10S11SW10
2 days agoS4S5SW4SW4SW5SW5S6S6SW7SW8SW10SW12
G21
SW13SW12W13W10W7W6NW3NW7NW6N9N6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.