Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Grove, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:31PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:44 AM CST (16:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 906 Am Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Saturday night through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..West wind 5 knots backing southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southeast with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Chance of snow after midnight. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Light freezing rain, snow, light sleet and rain in the morning, then rain likely and slight chance of light freezing rain in the afternoon. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering southeast with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then veering south 10 to 20 knots after midnight becoming west 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots early in the morning. Rain through around midnight, then rain likely and a chance of snow after midnight. Waves nearly calm. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:201902222300;;336832 FZUS53 KMKX 221506 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-222300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Grove, WI
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location: 43.58, -87.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 221447 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
847 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Update
No change to the forecast for today.

Marine
There is a gale watch in effect for late Sat night through Sunday
night. Might have to consider an upgrade to a storm watch warning
given gusts to 50 knots possible, particularly for the open
waters. Less of a chance for storm force gusts across the
nearshore waters, though not out of the question. Heavy freezing
spray will be also possible Sunday night into Monday. The highest
waves through this event will be across the eastern half of the
lake in ice free areas.

Lighter winds will return for early next week.

Prev discussion (issued 546 am cst Fri feb 22 2019)
update...

the forecast is on track for the upcoming day.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

vfr conditions and light winds are expected through today under
high pressure. Mid level clouds will move through the forecast
early this morning, with mostly sunny skies then into the
afternoon. Will eventually see lower ceilings visibilites later
tonight as low pressure and precip head for the area. Mixed
precipitation is likely by late tonight, with a pretty good chance
for freezing rain most places by daybreak Saturday.

Prev discussion... (issued 438 am cst Fri feb 22 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high:
scattered mid to high level clouds will be possible into early
morning... But otherwise high pressure should bring plenty of
sunshine today. Temps will be near normal.

Strengthening low pressure will approach the area tonight,
bringing a mix of precipitation later in the night. Precip may
start off as snow, especially in areas northwest of madison. A
warm layer aloft will move in quickly though, with precip quickly
changing to freezing rain. There are sizable differences among
models with how much precip will arrive with this first round of
forcing. Some of the more aggressive models would suggest more
icing by daybreak than in the current forecast, but either way,
icing is expected to occur later tonight. Best chance of a quick
glaze of ice by early morning will be from the madison area
southwestward.

Saturday through Sunday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

Cyclogenesis will ensue over the tx ok panhandles Fri nt as a
strong shortwave trough approaches from the desert sw. The
deepening low will track to SE ia by 00z sun. Well ahead of the
low, a sly 30-40 kt LLJ and associated warm, moist advection and
frontogenesis will shift ewd across the region Sat am. Fairly
strong lift and steepening mid level lapse rates will lead to a
large area of moderate pcpn moving east across SRN wi. A strong
warm layer aloft of 2-6c will move nwd into SRN wi by late Sat am.

Initial pcpn chances will be mixed, but transitioning to freezing
rain as the column becomes saturated and relatively warm aloft.

Some models produce relatively heavy QPF totals but looks
overdone. Went with a blend of QPF which gives 0.25-0.45 over
south central wi and .15-.30 over east central and SE wi. Ice
accums are .10-.25 inches with lesser amounts toward central wi.

Sfc temps will warm above freezing over all of S wi by noon with
areas of light rain expected the remainder of the day. A winter wx
advisory has been issued for Sat am.

The 994 mb low over SE ia at 00z Sun will then track to the nrn
end of lake mi by 12z Sun and deepen to 979 mb. Widespread
moderate rainfall will arrive Sat eve on the nose of a strong llj,
and strong upper level divergence via PVA and warm advection at
the jet level. Strong cold advection will then ensue from west to
east after midnight. Much of the pcpn will move out before
changing to snow so only an inch or less is forecast toward
central wi. The occluded low will continue to deepen as it moves
into ontario on sun. A strong pressure gradient and well mixed
atmosphere should be a slam dunk for a wind advisory with wly wind
gusts of 45-55 mph. Higher wind gusts cannot be ruled out and
will depend on the details of the cyclogenesis and pressure
gradient. A high wind watch may eventually be needed for Sunday
into Sunday evening.

In addition to the winter weather and high winds, minor river
flooding and lowland flooding will be possible due 0.5-1.0 inches
of rain along with several inches of snow melt. Ice jams will be
possible.

Long term... Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is low.

The ECMWF drops another reinforcing upper trough and cold temps
into the NRN great lakes and SRN canada for mon-wed while the gfs
is weaker and farther north with this feature. Thus, the gfs
produces more warm advection and frontogenesis with chances of
light snow for this period. Overall, below normal temps are
expected with chances of light snow mon-wed. High pressure and dry
for thu.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

vfr conditions and light winds are expected through today under
high pressure. Will eventually see lower ceilings visibilites
Friday night as low pressure and precip head for the area. Mixed
precipitation is likely by late tonight, with a pretty good chance
for freezing rain most places by daybreak Saturday.

Marine...

kept the gale watch timing as is for now for late Sat night
through Sunday night. Might have to consider an upgrade to a
storm watch warning given gusts to 50 knots
possible... Particularly for the open waters. Less of a chance for
storm force gusts across the nearshore waters... Though not out of
the question. Heavy freezing spray will be also possible Sunday
night into Monday. The highest waves through this event will be
across the eastern half of the lake in ice free areas.

Lighter winds will return for early next week.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon cst Saturday for
wiz046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

Winter weather advisory from 6 am to noon cst Saturday for
wiz051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

Lm... Gale watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night
for lmz080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-
675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Update... Cronce
today tonight and aviation marine... Ddv
Saturday through Thursday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 13 mi65 min E 1.9 G 4.1 27°F 1031.8 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 14 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 23°F 1031.3 hPa (+0.0)19°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 37 mi35 min Calm G 0 28°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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SE15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI14 mi52 minNNE 36.00 miFair with Haze23°F14°F68%1031.4 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI18 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair23°F15°F74%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W11W11W12W12W8W10W9W4W4NW5W4W5NW5NW5W3W4NW4NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoE13
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2 days agoSW4SW7S7S4S4SE5S5SE3S3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E8E11E9E11E13
G19
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G22
E14
G25

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.