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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 905 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Rest of today - North wind 10 to 20 knots rising to 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Isolated showers late in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Tonight - North wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots veering northeast with gusts to around 25 knots after midnight, then backing north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight. Wednesday - North wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday night - North wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then veering east early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 140850 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain and overcast skies today, clearing tonight for dry conditions Wednesday.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms expected to impact southern Wisconsin late this week and into this weekend.



SHORT TERM
Issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Today through Wednesday night:

Overcast skies throughout the day today as low pressure to the south slowly fills. A few showers are possible through this morning across areas from Madison and Milwaukee southward, with the best chances near the Wisconsin and Illinois border. Clouds will clear this evening into tonight as this low exits through the Ohio Valley. Northeasterly winds continue throughout the day as well, with gusty conditions expected. Gusts to 30 mph are expected in Lake Michigan adjacent counties, and gusts of 20 to 25 mph through the remainder of southern Wisconsin. Winds will diminish into tonight as well as the aforementioned low exits.
High temperatures in the mid-60s are expected in southwestern Wisconsin, with areas from Sheboygan through Waukesha and into the Lake Geneva area seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 50s due to onshore winds and lingering cloud cover.

Northeasterly winds will continue through the overnight hours tonight, although gusts will diminish. This will bring in dry Canadian air from a Hudson Bay high pressure system building into Ontario. Expect low temperatures in the mid to lower 40s, with clearing skies.

High pressure dominates the area Wednesday, with plenty of sunshine, rising temperatures, falling dewpoints, and light easterly to northeasterly winds. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in most regions, while Lake Michigan adjacent counties will only rise into the mid-60s due to lake influence.

Wednesday night, winds shift southeasterly ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the northern Plains.
Increasing cloud cover from west to east overnight will keep temperatures in the upper 40s.

MH

LONG TERM
Issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Thursday through Monday:

A weak sfc trough and upper level trough will move from MN to wrn Lake Superior on Thu. PWs will increase to 1-1.3 inches with very marginal instability, but fairly moist soundings. Had to delay the 50-60 percent PoPs over south central WI until afternoon then to the east for Thu eve. Srn WI will be in the wake of the weak sfc trough passage on Fri, but still some weak upper troughing and PVA occurring so 20-30 PoPs continue.

Will follow mostly the ECMWF and NBM for the weekend as the GFS is an outlier with the weak cyclogenesis that occurs from the mid MS River Valley across the Ohio Valley. The ECMWF Ensemble supports fast zonal flow and high 500 mb heights for the weekend into early next week. Low pressure will track from wrn Ontario into nrn Quebec during this time with a weak and sagging cold front possibly stalling over srn WI. Thus the low level thermal ridge will set up over the area with high temps well into the 70s with the potential for 80s once again. Forecasted rain chances of 20-30 percent, but a bit higher 40-50 PoPs for Sun.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Ceilings vary drastically from southern Wisconsin to central Wisconsin, with IFR conditions near the Illinois border increasing to 5000 ft in central Wisconsin and near Sheboygan.
Ceilings are expected to fluctuate from IFR to around 1500 ft through this morning south of MSN and MKE. However, MSN and MKE are expected to generally see 2000 to 2500 ft ceilings with occasional dips to near IFR when showers approach. Low pressure lifts northeast into Illinois late this morning into this afternoon, potentially bringing ceilings around 1500 ft to MKE and southward during the late morning to early afternoon hours before ceilings lift and cloud cover breaks up from west to east this afternoon into this evening. Clear conditions are then expected tonight through Wednesday.

Northeasterly winds will gust above 20 kt across southern Wisconsin throughout today, with gusts up to 25 kt near Lake Michigan. Winds will slowly diminish tonight, but will remain northeasterly. Winds shift easterly on Wednesday, but will remain northeasterly near Lake Michigan.

MH

MARINE
Issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Low pressure centered in the Middle Mississippi Valley will slowly fill and push into the southern Ohio Valley through the day today and into tonight. This will lead to gusty north northeasterly winds throughout today, slowly diminishing overnight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through late tonight for elevated winds and waves. High pressure stretching into northern Ontario tonight into Thursday will result in lighter northeasterly winds continuing through Wednesday, and then light winds throughout Thursday.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours today in far southern portions of the Lake.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Wednesday.

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