Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 5:27AM||Sunset 8:22PM||Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:41 AM CDT (07:41 UTC)||Moonrise 10:21PM||Moonset 6:44AM||Illumination 95%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsburg, WIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kmkx 210609|
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
109 am cdt Tue may 21 2019
Forecast remains on track through the morning with chances for
showers this morning and throughout much of the day, especially
further to the west.
A low pressure system will begin to make its way into the region
today with rain showers possible this morning and more likely into
the early afternoon. Rain chances will continue through the taf
period primarily in the western half of the state with lesser
chances into the evening closer to the shoreline. There will be a
brief period in the early evening where areas from madison and
west could see a few hours of MVFR cigs.
By around 00z, low level wind shear at 2 kft will be around 45-50
kts from the east southeast and will continue through most of the
overnight period. Lastly, showers will become likely into the
late evening and continue through much of the overnight period
with MVFR ifr CIGS expected to push into the region during this
time as well.
Prev discussion (issued 912 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019)
the forecast remains on track for tonight.
high pressure will move overhead tonight. Light winds are
expected into Tuesday morning, but will pick up out of the east to
northeast in the afternoon and evening as the high departs ahead
of an approaching low. Winds will be gusty out of east to
southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure lifts
through the northern plains into western minnesota. A small craft
advisory may be needed for Tue night and wed.
Winds will weaken a little and veer to the southwest Wednesday
night as the low departs and high pressure approaches.
Prev discussion... (issued 651 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019)
cumulus clouds continue to decrease this evening as daytime
heating winds down. Mid and high level clouds are moving in from
the southwest though, so skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight.
Looks dry for most of the night, with a few showers possible
southwest of madison by daybreak Tuesday.
vfr conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Lower
clouds are likely to move in from the southwest by the afternoon
hours. The MVFR ceilings may be confined to mainly southwest of
madison though, as drier easterly flow will keep bases higher
farther to the east.
There will be a chance for showers tomorrow, mainly from madison
westward, though a few showers will be possible east as well.
Widespread showers and a few storms are then likely Tuesday
evening and overnight. Looks like a good chance for low level
wind shear Tuesday evening and overnight as well.
Prev discussion... (issued 238 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019)
tonight... Forecast confidence is high.
Any clearing of the lower CU stratus will be short lived as high
clouds will be spreading in quickly from the southwest. Expect dry
conditions through the night with another chilly night in the
lower to mid 40s.
Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.
The suite of model guidance is quite varied in handling the
convection lifting northeast out of kansas missouri and into the
western great lakes. The convection to the south will weaken, but
it will be supported by a decent area of warm air advection and
mid level energy. However, it will be swinging well away from the
parent low and there will be an increasing dry easterly low level
flow that will work to erode the rain is it lifts into wisconsin.
Some of the model guidance keeps southern wisconsin dry as it
wipes this rain out over northern illinois. Models, like the nam,
are more bullish and bring a decent amount of rain up into the
area. The NAM looks way overdone. Something along the lines of the
gfs and ECMWF look far more reasonable. Will carry a chance for
rain, but no thunder. The west has a better chance for seeing rain
vs the southeast.
Tuesday night - confidence... Medium
the low level ese dry feed turns decidedly south in the evening
which results in appreciable thermal moisture advection. This
evolves ahead of the low that is proggd to be lifting north
through the plains. Several hundred j kg of elevated CAPE in place
so the thunder mention looks good. There will be a 500 millibar
vort MAX that pivots northeast on the eastern periphery of the
main 500 energy well off to our west. Will have definite pops as
confidence high that rain will be pretty widespread.
Wednesday - confidence... Medium
thermal ridging builds in briefly with the main advective forcing
on the wane. Influence of the plains 500 millibar low lifts to our
north bringing a more broad southwest anticyclonic flow for us here.
Winds may gust up there pretty good within the windy, warm dry slot
portion of the system. Models are showing an 850 wind MAX anywhere
from 30-45 knots during the afternoon evening. However some
disagreement on the pressure pattern and degree of mixing. Should
warm nicely with clearing and any mixing with lingering influence
of thermal ridge axis. Should see temps warm well into the 70s.
Wednesday night and Thursday - confidence... Medium
models in some disagreement whether showers clip our area along
ne-sw oriented frontal boundary. The GFS is a compromise between
the more robust ECMWF and benign gem. So will carry the blended
pops for Wednesday night.
Thursday night through Friday night - confidence... Medium
things turn unsettled again as the ridge axis shifts east and a
return flow sets up. For Thursday night the main forcing will be
driven by thermal moist advection with a hint of a wave trying to
move through the mid level ridge axis. Better dynamics and lower
level forcing with frontal interactions arriving for Friday into
Saturday and Sunday - confidence... Medium
the overall model consensus is to send this boundary south of wi
with the focus shifting to our south as well. The gem is an
outlier on keeping things unsettled. But for now some suggestion
of a surface high working in that would suppress this front to the
south. For now will need to at least keep some small pops in the
far south due to anticipated frontal proximity and slightly
quicker return flow from GFS which brings precip back for Sunday,
esp into southwest cwa.
Sunday night and Monday - confidence... Low to medium
the unsettled pattern looks like it will return as yet another
system approaches. A frontal boundary to our south will focus
activity that could lift up into SRN wi.
Aviation(21z tafs)... Look forVFR conditions through the TAF period.
We should see some clearing of the 4-6kft cloud deck this evening,
but more mid and high level clouds will be spreading in from the
south through the night. Look for light winds to turn northeast to
east on Tuesday and become rather strong and gusty, especially
over south central wisconsin... Including kmsn. We could see some
light rain spread across southern wisconsin during the morning and
early afternoon. No thunder is expected.
Marine... High pressure will push across the region tonight and Tuesday,
slipping east by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, strong low pressure will
be lifting north through the central plains. Expect light winds tonight.
Winds will be northeast to east on Tuesday, becoming more easterly
Tuesday night into Wednesday and turning rather strong and gusty. Winds
will become southwest by Wednesday night and diminish as high pressure
builds back across the area. Winds and waves will likely result in
a small craft advisory for the nearshore waters Tuesday night into
Mkx watches warnings advisories
tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Ddv
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Ddv
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|Baraboo Wisconsin Dells Airport, WI||13 mi||47 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||45°F||39°F||83%||1020.7 hPa|
Wind History from DLL (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E|
|2 days ago||E|
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (3,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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