Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yuba, WI
May 18, 2024 6:56 PM CDT (23:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:33 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:39 PM Moonset 2:20 AM |
FXUS63 KARX 182333 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 630 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A lower end risk for a few strong/marginally severe storms exists across central WI through early this evening (4 to 8 pm), with hail/gusty winds the primary hazards.
- Another round of thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday
- Increasing confidence for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon across the region. Best chances south of I90.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Late this afternoon:
A cold front was progressing into the Upper MS Valley this afternoon in conjunction with a mid-level trough ejecting northeast from the North Dakota/Manitoba border region. With the stronger synoptic lift passing to the north with the wave, convective initiation will be tied to surface heating and low-level convergence along the front.
CAMs/HRRR generally indicate the higher chances for storms late this afternoon/early evening across central/northern Wisconsin, with more isolated convection possible farther south where lift is weaker and mid-levels slightly warmer. Some of the differences in the CAM output likely are related to the degree of low-level moisture within the narrow instability axis ahead of front and depth of boundary layer mixing, with the lower dew points/stronger mixing solutions (such as the HRRR) verifying best as of early afternoon.
The 18.12Z HRRR shows some clustering in the UH fields, particularly across central into northern Wisconsin, where the risk of a few strong to severe storms is highest. However, again, the caveat is that quite a few of the HRRR members are verifying too high with boundary layer moisture, so the overall magnitude of this event looks quite marginal. That said, although the stronger deep layer shear lags the front, effective shear of 25 to 35 kts, combined with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and steep low/mid-level lapse rates would support small to marginally severe hail with initial more intense updrafts and strong wind gusts with more robust storms, especially north and east of I-94. Storms will quickly exit by 8-9 pm as the front moves through.
Overview: An active and progressive period of weather over the next week. Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday.
Broad troughing across the North American Rockies starts this period off this afternoon. This trough is expected to deepen as it drops south across the western CONUS through the rest of the weekend. As it does, SW flow takes hold across the CONUS with a downstream elongated ridge across the Appalachians. This SW flow will allow PWATs to climb above 1.25 inch on Monday and closer to 1.5 inches on Tuesday (near the climatological max for May 21 DVN sounding). A shortwave trough ejects from the Rockies Tuesday morning as a leeside Colorado Low develops and lifts NE through the Central Plains. This trough takes on a negative tilt as the surface low is expected to deepen quickly into a seasonably strong low. This brings Tuesday as the day to watch this forecast period for the potential of severe weather. After Tuesday, the upper-level pattern becomes temporarily more zonal and progressive with another upstream trough dropping south along the West Coast. This trough moves inland across the northern Rockies Thursday and through the Northern Plains Friday through Saturday bringing another surface low and chance for widespread precipitation somewhere along the Upper Midwest.
Variability among the medium range guidance will bring low chance PoPs Friday afternoon through Saturday, but expect the timing to become more precise with time this upcoming week.
This evening: Clearing and Seasonable
Surface trough and associated cold front shift east of the local area this evening lending to clearing skies and lighter winds. Winds likely won't go completely calm as we remain between a passing surface low to the north and increasing surface high pressure to the south. Winds 1 to 2kft off the surface will still remain 30 to 40 mph from the west so it's possible a few gusts (20mph or so) could reach the surface late this evening before the boundary layer decouples.
Sunday through Monday: Increasing Clouds Sunday, Thunderstorms Sunday Night and Monday
High pressure on Sunday morning will bring clear skies for the first half of the day; however, as warm air advection and isentropic ascent increase Sunday afternoon from the west, clouds will begin to increase. Did decrease PoPs for Sunday evening this shift as upstream convection will likely hinder precip chances until the better synoptic forcing movings in overnight Sunday into Monday. On Monday morning, shortwave is progged to be right overhead with ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the area. By Monday afternoon, MLCAPE increases around 750 to 1200 J/kg by Monday afternoon, so will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast, but the shear values look too low at this time for any organized severe weather threat.
Tuesday: Seasonably Strong Low Pressure. Severe Thunderstorms Possible
A potent negatively tilted trough and seasonably strong surface low pressure system are expected to lift NE from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday, bringing severe thunderstorm chances along with it. Latest deterministic models bring the surface low as deep as low as the mid 980s (ECMWF) with their ensemble means starting to catch on bringing the low into the mid 990mb. SPC has introduced a Day 4 15 and 30% chance locally across our area, with the best chances south of I90 at this time. PWATs climbing around 1.5 inches would be near the climatological max for DVN sounding on May 21, so quite a moist airmass.
As far as instability goes, mean Canadian Ensemble has remained an outlier on the high side, with mean sfc based CAPE in the 2500-3000 J/kg range, where as the GEFS and EPS solutions (while still elevated) remain in the 1000-1500J/kg range. With the sfc low favored to pass to the W of our local area, we are favored to remain in the warm sector where surface dewpoints in excess of 60F across our area and in the mid to upper 60s across NE Iowa. At this time it seems like wind would be the primary hazard as the threat evolves with time, but initial development of isolated storms could pose a tornado or hail threat. Continue to monitor forecast updates.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
CIGS: mostly SKC conditions through Sunday morning, then an increase in high/mid level clouds for the afternoon and early evening.
Short/medium range guidance start to dip into MVFR overnight Sunday as an upper level shortwave spins across the region.
WX/vsby: no impacts expected through Sunday afternoon. Rain starts to look likely for late evening through the overnight hours Sunday as a shortwave trough spins across the region. Enough instability to support at least scattered storms.
WINDS: west/northwest winds this evening with the passage of a cold front. Speeds will drop off moving into the mid evening, mostly light and variable overnight. Weak high pressure meanders across the region on Sunday, suggesting low end speeds (under 10kts) with mostly a southeasterly direction.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 630 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A lower end risk for a few strong/marginally severe storms exists across central WI through early this evening (4 to 8 pm), with hail/gusty winds the primary hazards.
- Another round of thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday
- Increasing confidence for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon across the region. Best chances south of I90.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Late this afternoon:
A cold front was progressing into the Upper MS Valley this afternoon in conjunction with a mid-level trough ejecting northeast from the North Dakota/Manitoba border region. With the stronger synoptic lift passing to the north with the wave, convective initiation will be tied to surface heating and low-level convergence along the front.
CAMs/HRRR generally indicate the higher chances for storms late this afternoon/early evening across central/northern Wisconsin, with more isolated convection possible farther south where lift is weaker and mid-levels slightly warmer. Some of the differences in the CAM output likely are related to the degree of low-level moisture within the narrow instability axis ahead of front and depth of boundary layer mixing, with the lower dew points/stronger mixing solutions (such as the HRRR) verifying best as of early afternoon.
The 18.12Z HRRR shows some clustering in the UH fields, particularly across central into northern Wisconsin, where the risk of a few strong to severe storms is highest. However, again, the caveat is that quite a few of the HRRR members are verifying too high with boundary layer moisture, so the overall magnitude of this event looks quite marginal. That said, although the stronger deep layer shear lags the front, effective shear of 25 to 35 kts, combined with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and steep low/mid-level lapse rates would support small to marginally severe hail with initial more intense updrafts and strong wind gusts with more robust storms, especially north and east of I-94. Storms will quickly exit by 8-9 pm as the front moves through.
Overview: An active and progressive period of weather over the next week. Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday.
Broad troughing across the North American Rockies starts this period off this afternoon. This trough is expected to deepen as it drops south across the western CONUS through the rest of the weekend. As it does, SW flow takes hold across the CONUS with a downstream elongated ridge across the Appalachians. This SW flow will allow PWATs to climb above 1.25 inch on Monday and closer to 1.5 inches on Tuesday (near the climatological max for May 21 DVN sounding). A shortwave trough ejects from the Rockies Tuesday morning as a leeside Colorado Low develops and lifts NE through the Central Plains. This trough takes on a negative tilt as the surface low is expected to deepen quickly into a seasonably strong low. This brings Tuesday as the day to watch this forecast period for the potential of severe weather. After Tuesday, the upper-level pattern becomes temporarily more zonal and progressive with another upstream trough dropping south along the West Coast. This trough moves inland across the northern Rockies Thursday and through the Northern Plains Friday through Saturday bringing another surface low and chance for widespread precipitation somewhere along the Upper Midwest.
Variability among the medium range guidance will bring low chance PoPs Friday afternoon through Saturday, but expect the timing to become more precise with time this upcoming week.
This evening: Clearing and Seasonable
Surface trough and associated cold front shift east of the local area this evening lending to clearing skies and lighter winds. Winds likely won't go completely calm as we remain between a passing surface low to the north and increasing surface high pressure to the south. Winds 1 to 2kft off the surface will still remain 30 to 40 mph from the west so it's possible a few gusts (20mph or so) could reach the surface late this evening before the boundary layer decouples.
Sunday through Monday: Increasing Clouds Sunday, Thunderstorms Sunday Night and Monday
High pressure on Sunday morning will bring clear skies for the first half of the day; however, as warm air advection and isentropic ascent increase Sunday afternoon from the west, clouds will begin to increase. Did decrease PoPs for Sunday evening this shift as upstream convection will likely hinder precip chances until the better synoptic forcing movings in overnight Sunday into Monday. On Monday morning, shortwave is progged to be right overhead with ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the area. By Monday afternoon, MLCAPE increases around 750 to 1200 J/kg by Monday afternoon, so will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast, but the shear values look too low at this time for any organized severe weather threat.
Tuesday: Seasonably Strong Low Pressure. Severe Thunderstorms Possible
A potent negatively tilted trough and seasonably strong surface low pressure system are expected to lift NE from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday, bringing severe thunderstorm chances along with it. Latest deterministic models bring the surface low as deep as low as the mid 980s (ECMWF) with their ensemble means starting to catch on bringing the low into the mid 990mb. SPC has introduced a Day 4 15 and 30% chance locally across our area, with the best chances south of I90 at this time. PWATs climbing around 1.5 inches would be near the climatological max for DVN sounding on May 21, so quite a moist airmass.
As far as instability goes, mean Canadian Ensemble has remained an outlier on the high side, with mean sfc based CAPE in the 2500-3000 J/kg range, where as the GEFS and EPS solutions (while still elevated) remain in the 1000-1500J/kg range. With the sfc low favored to pass to the W of our local area, we are favored to remain in the warm sector where surface dewpoints in excess of 60F across our area and in the mid to upper 60s across NE Iowa. At this time it seems like wind would be the primary hazard as the threat evolves with time, but initial development of isolated storms could pose a tornado or hail threat. Continue to monitor forecast updates.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
CIGS: mostly SKC conditions through Sunday morning, then an increase in high/mid level clouds for the afternoon and early evening.
Short/medium range guidance start to dip into MVFR overnight Sunday as an upper level shortwave spins across the region.
WX/vsby: no impacts expected through Sunday afternoon. Rain starts to look likely for late evening through the overnight hours Sunday as a shortwave trough spins across the region. Enough instability to support at least scattered storms.
WINDS: west/northwest winds this evening with the passage of a cold front. Speeds will drop off moving into the mid evening, mostly light and variable overnight. Weak high pressure meanders across the region on Sunday, suggesting low end speeds (under 10kts) with mostly a southeasterly direction.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
La Crosse, WI,
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