Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:38PM Saturday March 25, 2017 7:38 PM EDT (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:58AMMoonset 3:58PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1043 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east. Rain.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain overnight.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning...then rain showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers.
Monday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely during the day...then a chance of showers Monday night.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Rain showers likely during the day...then a chance of rain showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
LOZ030 Expires:201703252115;;059808 FZUS51 KBUF 251443 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1043 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ030-252115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 252044
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
444 pm edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain draped across pennsylvania through
tonight... Before slowly lifting back north across the region as a
warm front Sunday and Monday. Several disturbances sliding along
this boundary will bring frequent rounds of precipitation through
the rest of the weekend and early next week, with cooler temperatures
prevailing north of the boundary and milder temperatures found to
its south.

Near term /through Sunday/
As of 440 pm... The band of rain draped from the niagara peninsula
to the southern tier continues to edge south and break apart... With
this trend expected to continue through early this evening. Expect
just a little leftover spotty light rain along this feature through
that time... With largely dry weather prevailing otherwise.

The high to our north is forecast to shift off to the east later
tonight, and this will allow the front to our south to lift
back northward, with modest mid-level warm air advection
increasing chances for some light precipitation late tonight.

This should mainly fall in the form of rain, but there is a risk
of freezing rain late tonight across the eastern lake ontario
region. Confidence in measurable precipitation is low, but this
may require another round of headlines for this region if the
precipitation becomes widespread.

Temperatures will not cool much tonight, before rising late in the
night as the frontal boundary lifts back northward into the
region. The exception is the north country where skies should
clear out, allowing for some radiational cooling and temperatures to
fall into the lower 20s.

Precipiation looks to briefly wane during the day Sunday within
the warm sector. Closed/occluded low in the plains expected to
finally open up and advance up into the western ohio valley/lower
great lakes during the day. This will bring a northward bulge
of warmer air back up into western new york while opening up
that feed of gulf moisture into the great lakes, spreading
precipitation back up through the region during the mid to late
afternoon. Temperatures in the west will approach or potentially
exceed 60 degrees.

Short term /Sunday night through Monday night/
A large low pressure system than has been meandering through the
central plains over the last couple of days will finally eject
northeastward across the great lakes region Sunday night and Monday,
as it rejoins the mean mid-latitude flow. In the process, increased
moisture advection will bring gulf of mexico sourced air into the
region with ample synoptic forcing as the cold front and vorticity
advection ahead of the upper level low approach the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. This will bring an area of widespread
showers across the forecast area, and will maintain categorical pops
for that time period. By Monday mid-day and afternoon, height rises
behind the trough passage and drier low-level air will end the
widespread rain showers in favor of just some widely scattered
showers and lingering cloudiness. With respect to temperatures,
Sunday night will remain mild with downslope flow and warm advection
ahead of the wave, with lows ranging from the low 40s in the north
country to around 50 in western ny. By Monday, the airmass in the
wake of this largely cut-off low pressure system will not be much of
a contrast to the day prior, as better mixing and 850 mb temps to
around +5c will result in highs in the upper 40s in the north
country to the low 60s in the genesee valley and northern finger
lakes.

Monday afternoon through much of Monday night will remain dry in the
wake of the initial trough passage, but then by Tuesday morning a
trailing open wave will cross the region. Global models remain
conflicted in the exact track of the wave and where the best forcing
will coalesce. Overall there has been a bit of a southward trend,
which increased the northeasterly flow and push of cooler air into
the region for Tuesday. Thus have lower temperatures some for
Tuesday with highs in the 40s to low 50s. Showers will accompany
this wave, but their coverage across the region will be guided by
the track of the wave, with a more southerly track favoring a drier
forecast.

Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/
The very lengthy period of unsettled weather will finally come to an
end by Wednesday as a mid level trough digs southeast across quebec
and forces the frontal zone well south of our area. This will bring
an end to any lingering showers by Wednesday morning, but will also
deliver another push of cooler air into our region. The GFS is far
colder Wednesday than the ECMWF or gem with its more amplified and
southerly trough position. Have followed the ecmwf/gem consensus
with temperatures a little milder than the GFS would suggest, but
still on the cool side with highs in the 40s.

Surface high pressure will build across quebec Wednesday night and
Thursday with a ridge extending down into the eastern great lakes
and new england. This will provide a continuation of dry and cool
weather with highs in the 40s again Thursday and lows Wednesday
night and Thursday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most.

Model guidance diverges significantly by Friday and Saturday. The
gfs continues to suppress the next system well south of our area
with the moisture and forcing moving through the southeast states.

The ECMWF and canadian gem meanwhile are vastly different, taking a
surface low through the central great lakes. Have continued to lean
towards the ecmwf/gem consensus for this period with rain chances
increasing again later Friday through Saturday. Temperatures will
begin to rebound if this farther north low track verifies, with
highs back in the 50s by Saturday.

Aviation /21z Saturday through Thursday/
As of 2040z... The band of rain draped from the niagara peninsula
to the southern tier continues to edge south and break apart... With
this trend expected to continue through early this evening. Expect
just a little leftover spotty light rain along this feature through
that time... With largely dry weather prevailing otherwise.

In terms of flight conditions... Expect conditions to improve to
vfr across the north country through this evening with gradually
clearing skies from north to south. Elsewhere... The prevailing
northeasterly low level flow will help to maintain a mix of ifr
to MVFR conditions for the most part... With some brief clearing/
vfr conditions possible along and a little inland from the south
shore of lake ontario.

Later tonight, expect ifr/MVFR conditions will continue south of
lake ontario, withVFR conditions at art.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday... MVFR/ifr CIGS with rain likely at times.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

Marine
A frontal boundary will push further south of lake ontario this
afternoon, briefly pushing south of eastern portions of lake erie.

A northeasterly flow will develop on the cool side of the front
requiring small craft headlines along the south shores of lake
ontario through Sunday evening. Winds and waves will also
briefly build on lake erie southwest of dunkirk. Conditions will
be marginal, but expect there will be a shorter period which
meets small craft criteria into tonight.

After this, expect a benign pattern for the first half of next week
resulting in modest winds with any headlines unlikely.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for lez040.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Sunday for
loz042-043.

Synopsis... Jjr/tma
near term... Jjr/tma
short term... Church
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr/tma
marine... Tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 32 mi38 min ENE 4.1 G 9.9 37°F 1027.1 hPa (-0.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi50 min 37°F 1027 hPa
CWSEC 46 mi38 min E 5.8 G 7.8 38°F 80°F1027.9 hPa (-0.6)33°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi45 minE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F30°F76%1028 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NE12
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NE15NE8E9NE5NE6NE6NE9NE9E12NE12NE12NE11NE14NE12E13E9E12
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1 day agoNE9E7E7SE9SE6SE5SE3SE4SE6S3S4S4S10S7S6S7SW9SW14
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2 days agoW5W3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SW43--SW3S7W3NW3SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.