Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:00PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:52 AM EST (14:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:04PMMoonset 9:36AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 331 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Today..East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest to 35 knot gales. Rain showers.
Sunday night..West winds to 35 knot gales. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight.
Monday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to around 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of snow showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
LOZ030 Expires:201902231600;;374528 FZUS51 KBUF 230847 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-231600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231348
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
848 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will drift eastward into new england today, which will
maintain dry weather for most of the day. A strong storm system will
then track across the upper great lakes and southern canada tonight
and Sunday. This system will spread rain showers across our area
tonight, with its powerful trailing cold front then crossing the
area on Sunday and ushering in an extended period of widespread
damaging winds that will last through Sunday night. Meanwhile,
colder air behind the front will result in snow and blowing snow,
especially east of lake ontario on Sunday night into Monday.

Near term through tonight
Surface high pressure will continue to drift east across new england
today. A very dense cirrus shield is spreading northeast across the
eastern great lakes this morning ahead of this system. These cirrus
clouds are opaque enough to block the sun, so expect a cloudy day
across the region today. A light rain shower can't be ruled out
across the western southern tier late this afternoon, but by and
large it will be dry today. Temperatures will also rise today, aided
by an increasing southerly downslope flow near the lake erie
shoreline. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 40s, except
upper 30s east of lake ontario and across parts of the western
southern tier.

Tonight, low pressure will rapidly strengthen as it tracks from the
mid-western state and across lake michigan. A deep mid-level
southwesterly flow will place our region with a broad but
diffuse warm air advection this evening. This may result in
some light rain showers, but the steadier precipitation won't
arrive until late in the night with the approach of the
shortwave and a diffulent flow in the upper levels. Even so,
model consensus suggests precipitation amounts will be light
tonight, averaging between a tenth and a third of an inch. This
is because the strongest warm air advection will pass to our
south. A period of elevated instability late tonight may bring a
few rumbles of thunder to portions of the southern tier.

Temperatures will be close to freezing at the onset of precipitation
across portions of the western southern tier and north country. For
the western southern tier, the NAM appears to be running colder than
most other guidance but with increasing southerly winds
temperatures are likely to be just above freezing at the onset.

If not, precipitation would be freezing rain since there will
already be a warm layer in place aloft. The potential for mixed
precipitation is greater across the north country, where it
probably will be below freezing in some spots when precipitation
starts late tonight. However there thermal profiles suggest a
mix of snow and sleet at the onset, with a potential for some
freezing rain just before the warm surface air arrives. At this
point, confidence was not there to issue an advisory with the
risk for freezing rain limited.

Although this will be small compared to the main wind event, it does
appear that downslope regions across chautauqua county will reach
advisory criteria late tonight with gusts to 50 mph. NAM gfs
guidance show a 40-50 kt flow below the inversion at 2kft which is
likely to mix down partially across the chautauqua ridge and near
the lakeshore.

Under strong warm air advection temperatures will be rising
through the night. By daybreak Sunday temperatures will be in
the 40s across most of the area, with readings pushing 50 across
the lake plains due to downsloping.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
A high impact weather event will unfold this period, with
unseasonable warmth to start, followed by widespread damaging winds,
only to end with lake effect snow with possible blizzard-like
conditions.

To start Sunday mild air will be flowing across the region, this
ahead of a surface low that will be around 978 mb over northern lake
michigan. An area of rain will be exiting the north country Sunday
morning, with scattered showers found farther westward over wny.

This surface low will track across the soo region Sunday morning,
while pushing a cold front across our region late Sunday morning and
early afternoon. The passage of this frontal boundary (with perhaps
a line of convective showers) will commence the very strong winds
that will ramp up through the afternoon hours. The 00z models
continue the consistent track of the deepening surface low across
the soo and into southern canada along with a 65 to 75 knot llj,
though they all tend to favor about a 6-hr later time frame for when
the surface low bottoms out around 971 mb. This will delay the onset
of the stronger winds a few hours across our region. We will
maintain the wind headlines and lakeshore flood headlines as is.

This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 mb
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail
(down to near 500 mb) across the region will transport very strong
winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the
late morning hours or early afternoon hours and continuing through
Sunday night. As the 1.5 PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon
behind a strong cold front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow
dipping below 1k feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75
mph downwind of lake erie and across the lake plain. This period
just behind the cold front is when we could see these 75 mph wind
gusts.

Sunday morning will begin very warm with temperatures in the morning
hours peaking well into the 50s across western new york. A few 60
degree readings are possible in the genesee valley within this
anomalous weather pattern. These temperatures will not be near
record values (record maximum temperatures were set for this date
just two years ago, with several stations recording all-time
february highs in the 70s). Temperatures across western new york
will begin to fall by noontime as the surface cold front crosses the
region. Additional rainfall Sunday will be on the order of a tenth
or two.

Behind the cold front Sunday evening winds will continue from the
southwest-west direction with continued gusts 60 mph and greater.

What will also make this wind event concerning will be the prolonged
period of damaging winds, with gusts over 60 mph possible for about
a 12 hour period. This lengthy period of winds battering the region
could increase the severity of this wind event. Strong winds will
persist into Sunday night, this will be more of a west to west-
northwest direction as the surface low tracks across southern
quebec.

Winds will eventually begin to decrease later Sunday night as the
surface low begins to fill across canada. By Monday morning the last
areas to drop below high wind warning criteria will likely be along
the southern lake ontario shoreline, and the hill tops of wyoming
county and the bristol hills.

The 850 mb temperatures will plummet to -15c over the lakes which
will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake
effect snow parameters become increasingly favorable, bands of snow
will form to the east and then southeast of the lakes.

On lake erie... There will likely be slivers of open water, in
addition to latent heat flux through thin or broken ice waters. This
in addition to upstream moisture for lake huron will bring lake
effect snow, and upslope snows to the niagara frontier and the so.

Tier... With greatest snow accumulations through Monday across the
boston hills and ski country. Here 3 to 5 inches of snow will
fall... Though measuring this snow will be quite difficult as strong
winds will create blowing and drifting to the snow. These winds,
combined with cellular bursts of snow will create white-out
conditions at times. Will add this potential to the hwo, as
headlines may be needed in the future to account for the snow and
poor visibilities.

On lake ontario... We will hoist a winter storm watch for lake effect
snow, starting Sunday evening and going through Monday afternoon.

This watch will encompass the 3 counties east of lake ontario,
though impacts will mainly be across far southern jefferson county,
as well as lewis and oswego. Lake induced equilibrium levels are
expected to increase to around 8-9k feet which will be plenty tall
enough for lake effect snow to form. On a westerly flow wind
convergence from both the north and south shoreline of lake ontario
will create enough lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of
lake snow.

While snow amounts will likely range from several inches to
potential for over 7 inches the still strong winds Sunday night and
Monday will create a dangerous situation with near blizzard like
conditions. Expect very poor visibilities within falling and blowing
snow Sunday night and into Monday. Winds will continue to veer to
northwesterly Monday and this will take the concentration of snow
across the southern tug hill region, oswego county and possibly
begin to clip northeast wayne and northern cayuga by Monday night.

However by Monday night the band of snow will be in a weaker state.

Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s,
with temperatures 12z Monday morning some 20 to 30f degrees cooler
than where they were 24 hours prior.

Monday the surface low will continue to fill as it tracks across
southern quebec and towards the canadian maritimes and as the upper
level low becomes vertically stacked overhead. While there will
still be a few lingering wind gusts to 60 mph early in the day, all
areas should be below 45 mph by early to mid afternoon.

Surface high pressure will build towards the region Monday night and
this will further reduce wind speeds across the region. It will be
cold Monday night with temperatures dropping to the low single
digits east of lake ontario and lower teens to single digits across
wny. This surface high pressure will also bring in a drier airmass,
one that will begin to weaken lingering bands of snow to the
southeast of lake ontario.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Tuesday surface high pressure should be passing overhead. This
feature and its associated dry air will end lake effect snow to the
southeast of lake ontario through the morning hours, while providing
a dry day elsewhere.

Tuesday night and Wednesday would be the time period for the
next system, but models continue to be at odds on where and even
if this system will materialize. The GFS and several ensemble
members continue to bring one through the region while the ecmwf
has been steadfast in keeping surface high pressure over the
region. The origins of the model discrepancies may be due to a
developing rex block over the pacific northwest with poor
downstream model handling.

Confidence may be slightly higher, at least for the lack of
precipitation for the end of the week, assuming a surface ridge
either continues or rebuilds. Temperatures however still quite
uncertain with no clear signal on whether we'll see arctic flow
(ecmwf) or warmer air within a zonal flow (gfs).

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure across eastern new york state will drift east into new
england. There still are some lingering stratus with cloud bases
near 3k feet east of lake ontario and these will gradually dissipate
by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect generalVFR conditions today as
the high slowly departs eastward across new england. A dense shield
of high cirrus will continue to overspread the region.

Rain will move in from the southwest this evening, with
conditions lowering to MVFR with or shortly after the arrival
of the rain. Llws is possible late tonight as winds aloft
increase, but do not readily mix to the surface. Downsloping
will keep most sites in the MVFR flight category late tonight,
except across the western southern tier where ifr conditions
will prevail.

Outlook...

Sunday... Strong winds developing, otherwise MVFR ifr with
rain showers.

Sunday night... Continued strong winds, otherwise MVFR ifr
with rain showers changing to snow showers.

Monday...VFR MVFR in scattered snow showers. Local ifr in
heavier lake effect snow and blowing snow.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR MVFR in scattered snow showers.

Marine
High pressure will slide east onto new england today with generally
light winds prevailing.

A powerful storm system will then track through the central great
lakes and into southern canada tonight through Sunday night. Model
consensus continues to show 925mb winds of 60-70 knots in a post-
frontal cold air advection regime. Based on this, have upgraded to
storm warnings across the lakes, with gales on the niagara river.

Winds will gradually diminish late Sunday night into Monday, when
the storm warning will likely need to be replaced with gales.

Hydrology
A period of rain will develop tonight into Sunday. Rainfall
amounts look to be relatively minor with about a quarter to
perhaps a third of an inch expected. Temperatures will rise
tonight into Sunday with thawing degree hours reaching a
threshold where ice begins to move by tonight. Ice thickness is
around 2-3 inches on the buffalo creeks. Ice of this thickness
typically breaks up rather quickly, resulting in ice flows and
minor jams. Typically, this is not enough ice to cause major ice
jams, but there is some risk that there are larger chunks along
the shores or locked in place. The most susceptible areas to
ice jams are the buffalo creeks and cattaraugus creek, although
they can happen anywhere.

Tides coastal flooding
Powerful winds gusting up to 75 mph will result in significant water
rises in the eastern basins of lake erie and lake ontario
Sunday and Sunday night.

Lake erie... Lakeshore flooding is expected, and this is likely
to be a high end event. Guidance suggests levels on eastern lake
erie are likely to reach 11 feet which is about a foot below
the record values of 12.08 on december 2, 1985. As a result,
this may impact some locations which are not typically impacted.

For reference, warning criteria is 8 ft.

In addition, rises will break up ice in place on the lake, and
this will get pushed onto shoreline areas likely causing
damage to the immediate lakeshore, including the buffalo harbor
and buffalo waterfront. Ice chunks may damage structures, and
even get pushed into rivers and creeks flowing into lake erie. Ice
will also get pushed across the niagara river ice boom into the
upper niagara river likely causing damage along shoreline areas
of the upper niagara river.

The highest water levels will be Sunday afternoon and early
Sunday evening.

Lake ontario... Significant water rises and high waves are
expected to impact shoreline areas from oswego county to the
saint lawrence river. Ice in place, especially at the northeast
end extending to the saint lawrence river will get pushed onto
shoreline areas likely causing damaging. Areas which may be
particularly vulnerable to flooding and ice damage are sandy
pond, black river bay, chaumont bay, and the thousand islands
region of the saint lawrence river. Ice blocks will get pushed
onshore, and possibly into rivers and creeks flowing into lake
ontario. While lake ontario does not respond as dramatically to
a lake seiche, guidance suggests a 1-2 foot rise across the
eastern end of the lake. This combined with waves which may
reach 25 feet is likely to have a major impact on the immediate
lakeshore.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... High wind warning from 7 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for
nyz001>003-010-011-019-085.

Lakeshore flood warning from 7 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday
for nyz001-010-019-085.

High wind warning from 10 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for
nyz004>008-012>014-020-021.

Lakeshore flood warning from 4 pm Sunday to 1 pm est Monday
for nyz006-007.

Winter storm watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for nyz006>008.

Wind advisory from 1 am to 7 am est Sunday for nyz019.

Marine... Gale warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for lez020.

Storm warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for
lez040-041.

Gale warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for
loz030.

Storm warning from 10 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
loz042>044-062>064.

Storm warning from 1 pm Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
loz045-065.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel hitchcock
short term... Thomas
long term... Thomas zaff
aviation... Apffel hitchcock
marine... Apffel
hydrology... Tma apffel
tides coastal flooding... Tma apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 32 mi53 min E 1.9 G 9.9 32°F 1027.1 hPa (-2.4)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi53 min E 9.9 G 12 31°F 1029.5 hPa (-2.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi53 min 29°F 1027.3 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi60 minE 96.00 miFair with Haze29°F23°F78%1028.9 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW7CalmNW55NW7N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmCalmE4E3E5----E6E7E9
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2 days agoE8E6E7E7E11SE11SE11SE10SE10SE7SE11SE10S7S10SW12SW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.