Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Youngs, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:49PM Monday May 27, 2019 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:43AMMoonset 12:44PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1031 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight.
Tuesday..East winds around 10 knots. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ030 Expires:201905270900;;521515 FZUS51 KBUF 270237 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-270900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
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location: 43.61, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 271006
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
606 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over southern ontario and quebec will maintain dry and
nice weather across the lower lakes for memorial day. Unsettled
weather returns Tuesday through a majority of this week as a
series of waves of low pressure ripple across the region with
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Near term through tonight
Early morning fog across the western southern tier will
dissipate within a few hours after sunrise. Otherwise, the axis
of the surface based ridge to our NW will become centered over
southern ontario and quebec today. Meanwhile, a shortwave near
james bay will dive southeast across quebec which will send its
weakening cold front south into the lower lakes. With limited
moisture and support this front will do no more than introduce
some mid and high level clouds and a few sprinkles across north
central new york this afternoon. With that said, for the most
part look for abundant sunshine across a majority of the region
and temperatures rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Although, if you're headed to the lakes it will be a bit cooler,
especially near the shore of lake ontario with a ene wind flow
as water temperatures are still in the upper 40s low 50s.

Tonight, high pressure over southern quebec will begrudgingly
give way to low pressure and convective activity over the upper
midwest as it tracks east towards the region overnight. While
high pressure slowly slides east into new england it will maintain
dry conditions for at least the first half of night. As we head into
second half of the night and early Tuesday morning a warm front will
punch into western ny with convective chances increasing across the
forecast area from west to east. That said, with clouds and the
warm frontal arrival lows overnight will more than likely occur
early across western ny and then slowly rise with low to mid
50s expected south of lake ontario. Across the north country,
where skies will see less cloud cover initially expect lows in
the upper 40s by daybreak.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
An amplified upper level flow over the us will continue through the
midweek period with a low moving very slowly east across the
intermountain region and into the plains, weakening a little in the
process, while a southeast us ridge moves slowly east. In between,
a subtropical jet will force renewed severe convection in the
midwest, with remnant mid level (convectively augmented)
circulations wafting over the top of the ridge - somewhere over the
lower great lakes region, or ohio valley, or mid atlantic region.

That is, the forecast confidence for timing and placement of
convection over the next several days will be on the low side.

Forecast confidence is highest early on Tuesday as the current
midwest MCS devolves toward the great lakes by tonight, with its
remnant mid level circulation eventually spawning a surface
reflection by Tuesday complete with warm front, cold front and warm
sector in between. The warm front should be moving through the
region on Tuesday with accompanying showers and some thunderstorms,
followed by the warm sector for Tuesday afternoon.

This is where the forecast confidence quickly starts to deteriorate.

It is uncertain how far the warm sector will work into the region
and how much clearing will occur. This uncertainty will have an
impact on afternoon convection. Current higher res runs focus a
lake breeze cold front initiated band quickly south toward pa with
potential severe weather along the front.

Assuming this works out, Tuesday night would be dry. However, now
concerns lie on whether the front moves south into pa or stalls over
the region, serving as a boundary for additional convection later
Tuesday night and then into Wednesday as the next convective ridge
rider approaches the region. So, will keep a chance of
showers thunderstorms in the forecast, with renewed convection
possible with the next system sometime on Wednesday. Again,
confidence is low on placement and timing; there should be dry
periods in between systems.

This scenario repeats again by Thursday, with yet another midwest
convective system eventually riding over the southeast us ridge and
probably affecting our region with continued uncertainty on location
and timing, but with at least a chance for measurable rain over each
12hr period through the midweek period.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
The overall pattern over north america during this period will be
dominated by an anomalously deep and persistent closed low that will
be anchored in the vicinity of james bay. Interestingly... The return
interval for such a feature in that area at this time of year is
roughly once in a ten year period. The importance of this closed low
is that shortwaves rotating about its periphery will not only
produce times of unsettled weather during this period... But it will
also guarantee that we will not experience any true summer warmth
for the foreseeable future. The latter will due to the suppression
of the sub tropical ridge that typically resides over the deep south
at this time of year. Overall... Temperatures during this period
as we head into june will average within a couple degrees of normal.

Now some day to day details.

Confidence in the forecast for Friday is below normal... As there is
a large variance in the projected position of the aforementioned
frontal boundary between the medium range ensemble packages. Will
raise pops to slgt chc to cover this uncertainty... But am still
obviously heavily leaning towards an improving and mainly dry day.

High pressure should then build across the region Friday night and
Saturday... With fairly high confidence that fair dry weather can be
expected.

Another frontal boundary on Sunday should support at least the
chance for some showers to end the weekend.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
WhileVFR conditions will continue at area terminals, there
will be some valley fog in the southern tier this morning. Once
this dissipates,VFR is expected at all terminals with high
pressure overhead.

Tonight,VFR conditions will likely continue through the first half
of the night. Later on, a weak low will track east with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms by early Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered to
occasionally more numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure will settle over southern ontario and quebec for
memorial day which will provide light northerly winds and minimal
wave action on both lakes. Tonight, a warm frontal boundary pushes
into the lower lakes with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms but winds and waves will likely remain below small
craft advisories (sca). Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the rest of the upcoming week as a wavy frontal
boundary influences the lower great lakes with winds and waves
likely remaining just below SCA levels.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ar
near term... Ar
short term... Zaff
long term... Rsh
aviation... Ar
marine... Ar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 25 mi83 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 46°F1 ft1017.1 hPa (+1.1)
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 28 mi83 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 54°F 45°F1016.6 hPa (+0.6)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi23 min W 2.9 G 4.1 54°F 1018.6 hPa (+2.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi41 min 53°F 1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY44 mi30 minSW 410.00 miFair52°F48°F86%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SW3SW7SW9SW9W7NW13NW13NW12NW11NW10NE9NE9NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE3CalmW7SE6E4SE8SE6SW15SW18
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SW6W9SW10SW11SW9SW8S8SW8S8SW8S4
2 days agoNW10NW13NW11NW9NW6W6W8N7NW10W10SW12SW9SW7S7S4SW7S3S5SE5S4SE3E4SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.