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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name. |
| Sunrise 7:03AM | Sunset 6:00PM | Saturday February 23, 2019 9:52 AM EST (14:52 UTC) | Moonrise 11:04PM | Moonset 9:36AM | Illumination 82% |  |
LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 331 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Today..East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest to 35 knot gales. Rain showers.
Sunday night..West winds to 35 knot gales. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight.
Monday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to around 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of snow showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Today..East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest to 35 knot gales. Rain showers.
Sunday night..West winds to 35 knot gales. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight.
Monday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to around 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of snow showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
LOZ030 Expires:201902231600;;374528
FZUS51 KBUF 230847
NSHBUF
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
331 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019
For waters within five nautical miles of shore
Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
LOZ030-231600-
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Youngs, NY
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 43.61, -79.46 debug
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition| Fxus61 kbuf 231348 afdbuf area forecast discussion national weather service buffalo ny 848 am est Sat feb 23 2019 Synopsis High pressure will drift eastward into new england today, which will maintain dry weather for most of the day. A strong storm system will then track across the upper great lakes and southern canada tonight and Sunday. This system will spread rain showers across our area tonight, with its powerful trailing cold front then crossing the area on Sunday and ushering in an extended period of widespread damaging winds that will last through Sunday night. Meanwhile, colder air behind the front will result in snow and blowing snow, especially east of lake ontario on Sunday night into Monday. Near term through tonight Surface high pressure will continue to drift east across new england today. A very dense cirrus shield is spreading northeast across the eastern great lakes this morning ahead of this system. These cirrus clouds are opaque enough to block the sun, so expect a cloudy day across the region today. A light rain shower can't be ruled out across the western southern tier late this afternoon, but by and large it will be dry today. Temperatures will also rise today, aided by an increasing southerly downslope flow near the lake erie shoreline. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 40s, except upper 30s east of lake ontario and across parts of the western southern tier. Tonight, low pressure will rapidly strengthen as it tracks from the mid-western state and across lake michigan. A deep mid-level southwesterly flow will place our region with a broad but diffuse warm air advection this evening. This may result in some light rain showers, but the steadier precipitation won't arrive until late in the night with the approach of the shortwave and a diffulent flow in the upper levels. Even so, model consensus suggests precipitation amounts will be light tonight, averaging between a tenth and a third of an inch. This is because the strongest warm air advection will pass to our south. A period of elevated instability late tonight may bring a few rumbles of thunder to portions of the southern tier. Temperatures will be close to freezing at the onset of precipitation across portions of the western southern tier and north country. For the western southern tier, the NAM appears to be running colder than most other guidance but with increasing southerly winds temperatures are likely to be just above freezing at the onset. If not, precipitation would be freezing rain since there will already be a warm layer in place aloft. The potential for mixed precipitation is greater across the north country, where it probably will be below freezing in some spots when precipitation starts late tonight. However there thermal profiles suggest a mix of snow and sleet at the onset, with a potential for some freezing rain just before the warm surface air arrives. At this point, confidence was not there to issue an advisory with the risk for freezing rain limited. Although this will be small compared to the main wind event, it does appear that downslope regions across chautauqua county will reach advisory criteria late tonight with gusts to 50 mph. NAM gfs guidance show a 40-50 kt flow below the inversion at 2kft which is likely to mix down partially across the chautauqua ridge and near the lakeshore. Under strong warm air advection temperatures will be rising through the night. By daybreak Sunday temperatures will be in the 40s across most of the area, with readings pushing 50 across the lake plains due to downsloping. Short term Sunday through Monday night A high impact weather event will unfold this period, with unseasonable warmth to start, followed by widespread damaging winds, only to end with lake effect snow with possible blizzard-like conditions. To start Sunday mild air will be flowing across the region, this ahead of a surface low that will be around 978 mb over northern lake michigan. An area of rain will be exiting the north country Sunday morning, with scattered showers found farther westward over wny. This surface low will track across the soo region Sunday morning, while pushing a cold front across our region late Sunday morning and early afternoon. The passage of this frontal boundary (with perhaps a line of convective showers) will commence the very strong winds that will ramp up through the afternoon hours. The 00z models continue the consistent track of the deepening surface low across the soo and into southern canada along with a 65 to 75 knot llj, though they all tend to favor about a 6-hr later time frame for when the surface low bottoms out around 971 mb. This will delay the onset of the stronger winds a few hours across our region. We will maintain the wind headlines and lakeshore flood headlines as is. This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 mb temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees celsius through the day), forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail (down to near 500 mb) across the region will transport very strong winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the late morning hours or early afternoon hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5 PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1k feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind of lake erie and across the lake plain. This period just behind the cold front is when we could see these 75 mph wind gusts. Sunday morning will begin very warm with temperatures in the morning hours peaking well into the 50s across western new york. A few 60 degree readings are possible in the genesee valley within this anomalous weather pattern. These temperatures will not be near record values (record maximum temperatures were set for this date just two years ago, with several stations recording all-time february highs in the 70s). Temperatures across western new york will begin to fall by noontime as the surface cold front crosses the region. Additional rainfall Sunday will be on the order of a tenth or two. Behind the cold front Sunday evening winds will continue from the southwest-west direction with continued gusts 60 mph and greater. What will also make this wind event concerning will be the prolonged period of damaging winds, with gusts over 60 mph possible for about a 12 hour period. This lengthy period of winds battering the region could increase the severity of this wind event. Strong winds will persist into Sunday night, this will be more of a west to west- northwest direction as the surface low tracks across southern quebec. Winds will eventually begin to decrease later Sunday night as the surface low begins to fill across canada. By Monday morning the last areas to drop below high wind warning criteria will likely be along the southern lake ontario shoreline, and the hill tops of wyoming county and the bristol hills. The 850 mb temperatures will plummet to -15c over the lakes which will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake effect snow parameters become increasingly favorable, bands of snow will form to the east and then southeast of the lakes. On lake erie... There will likely be slivers of open water, in addition to latent heat flux through thin or broken ice waters. This in addition to upstream moisture for lake huron will bring lake effect snow, and upslope snows to the niagara frontier and the so. Tier... With greatest snow accumulations through Monday across the boston hills and ski country. Here 3 to 5 inches of snow will fall... Though measuring this snow will be quite difficult as strong winds will create blowing and drifting to the snow. These winds, combined with cellular bursts of snow will create white-out conditions at times. Will add this potential to the hwo, as headlines may be needed in the future to account for the snow and poor visibilities. On lake ontario... We will hoist a winter storm watch for lake effect snow, starting Sunday evening and going through Monday afternoon. This watch will encompass the 3 counties east of lake ontario, though impacts will mainly be across far southern jefferson county, as well as lewis and oswego. Lake induced equilibrium levels are expected to increase to around 8-9k feet which will be plenty tall enough for lake effect snow to form. On a westerly flow wind convergence from both the north and south shoreline of lake ontario will create enough lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of lake snow. While snow amounts will likely range from several inches to potential for over 7 inches the still strong winds Sunday night and Monday will create a dangerous situation with near blizzard like conditions. Expect very poor visibilities within falling and blowing snow Sunday night and into Monday. Winds will continue to veer to northwesterly Monday and this will take the concentration of snow across the southern tug hill region, oswego county and possibly begin to clip northeast wayne and northern cayuga by Monday night. However by Monday night the band of snow will be in a weaker state. |
Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s, with temperatures 12z Monday morning some 20 to 30f degrees cooler than where they were 24 hours prior. Monday the surface low will continue to fill as it tracks across southern quebec and towards the canadian maritimes and as the upper level low becomes vertically stacked overhead. While there will still be a few lingering wind gusts to 60 mph early in the day, all areas should be below 45 mph by early to mid afternoon. Surface high pressure will build towards the region Monday night and this will further reduce wind speeds across the region. It will be cold Monday night with temperatures dropping to the low single digits east of lake ontario and lower teens to single digits across wny. This surface high pressure will also bring in a drier airmass, one that will begin to weaken lingering bands of snow to the southeast of lake ontario. Long term Tuesday through Friday Tuesday surface high pressure should be passing overhead. This feature and its associated dry air will end lake effect snow to the southeast of lake ontario through the morning hours, while providing a dry day elsewhere. Tuesday night and Wednesday would be the time period for the next system, but models continue to be at odds on where and even if this system will materialize. The GFS and several ensemble members continue to bring one through the region while the ecmwf has been steadfast in keeping surface high pressure over the region. The origins of the model discrepancies may be due to a developing rex block over the pacific northwest with poor downstream model handling. Confidence may be slightly higher, at least for the lack of precipitation for the end of the week, assuming a surface ridge either continues or rebuilds. Temperatures however still quite uncertain with no clear signal on whether we'll see arctic flow (ecmwf) or warmer air within a zonal flow (gfs). Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday High pressure across eastern new york state will drift east into new england. There still are some lingering stratus with cloud bases near 3k feet east of lake ontario and these will gradually dissipate by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect generalVFR conditions today as the high slowly departs eastward across new england. A dense shield of high cirrus will continue to overspread the region. Rain will move in from the southwest this evening, with conditions lowering to MVFR with or shortly after the arrival of the rain. Llws is possible late tonight as winds aloft increase, but do not readily mix to the surface. Downsloping will keep most sites in the MVFR flight category late tonight, except across the western southern tier where ifr conditions will prevail. Outlook... Sunday... Strong winds developing, otherwise MVFR ifr with rain showers. Sunday night... Continued strong winds, otherwise MVFR ifr with rain showers changing to snow showers. Monday...VFR MVFR in scattered snow showers. Local ifr in heavier lake effect snow and blowing snow. Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR MVFR in scattered snow showers. Marine High pressure will slide east onto new england today with generally light winds prevailing. A powerful storm system will then track through the central great lakes and into southern canada tonight through Sunday night. Model consensus continues to show 925mb winds of 60-70 knots in a post- frontal cold air advection regime. Based on this, have upgraded to storm warnings across the lakes, with gales on the niagara river. Winds will gradually diminish late Sunday night into Monday, when the storm warning will likely need to be replaced with gales. Hydrology A period of rain will develop tonight into Sunday. Rainfall amounts look to be relatively minor with about a quarter to perhaps a third of an inch expected. Temperatures will rise tonight into Sunday with thawing degree hours reaching a threshold where ice begins to move by tonight. Ice thickness is around 2-3 inches on the buffalo creeks. Ice of this thickness typically breaks up rather quickly, resulting in ice flows and minor jams. Typically, this is not enough ice to cause major ice jams, but there is some risk that there are larger chunks along the shores or locked in place. The most susceptible areas to ice jams are the buffalo creeks and cattaraugus creek, although they can happen anywhere. Tides coastal flooding Powerful winds gusting up to 75 mph will result in significant water rises in the eastern basins of lake erie and lake ontario Sunday and Sunday night. Lake erie... Lakeshore flooding is expected, and this is likely to be a high end event. Guidance suggests levels on eastern lake erie are likely to reach 11 feet which is about a foot below the record values of 12.08 on december 2, 1985. As a result, this may impact some locations which are not typically impacted. For reference, warning criteria is 8 ft. In addition, rises will break up ice in place on the lake, and this will get pushed onto shoreline areas likely causing damage to the immediate lakeshore, including the buffalo harbor and buffalo waterfront. Ice chunks may damage structures, and even get pushed into rivers and creeks flowing into lake erie. Ice will also get pushed across the niagara river ice boom into the upper niagara river likely causing damage along shoreline areas of the upper niagara river. The highest water levels will be Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. Lake ontario... Significant water rises and high waves are expected to impact shoreline areas from oswego county to the saint lawrence river. Ice in place, especially at the northeast end extending to the saint lawrence river will get pushed onto shoreline areas likely causing damaging. Areas which may be particularly vulnerable to flooding and ice damage are sandy pond, black river bay, chaumont bay, and the thousand islands region of the saint lawrence river. Ice blocks will get pushed onshore, and possibly into rivers and creeks flowing into lake ontario. While lake ontario does not respond as dramatically to a lake seiche, guidance suggests a 1-2 foot rise across the eastern end of the lake. This combined with waves which may reach 25 feet is likely to have a major impact on the immediate lakeshore. Buf watches warnings advisories Ny... High wind warning from 7 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for nyz001>003-010-011-019-085. Lakeshore flood warning from 7 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for nyz001-010-019-085. High wind warning from 10 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for nyz004>008-012>014-020-021. Lakeshore flood warning from 4 pm Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for nyz006-007. Winter storm watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for nyz006>008. Wind advisory from 1 am to 7 am est Sunday for nyz019. Marine... Gale warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for lez020. Storm warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for lez040-041. Gale warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for loz030. Storm warning from 10 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for loz042>044-062>064. Storm warning from 1 pm Sunday to 7 am est Monday for loz045-065. Synopsis... Apffel near term... Apffel hitchcock short term... Thomas long term... Thomas zaff aviation... Apffel hitchcock marine... Apffel hydrology... Tma apffel tides coastal flooding... Tma apffel |
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 32 mi | 53 min | E 1.9 G 9.9 | 32°F | 1027.1 hPa (-2.4) | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 43 mi | 53 min | E 9.9 G 12 | 31°F | 1029.5 hPa (-2.0) | |||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 44 mi | 53 min | 29°F | 1027.3 hPa (-2.3) |
Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | |
| Last 24hr | S | S | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | W | NW | N | N | NE | E | E | E | E | E | E G10 | E G10 | E G12 | E G12 | E G11 | E G12 |
| 1 day ago | SW G23 | SW G23 | SW | SW G27 | SW G27 | SW G28 | SW | SW | SW G23 | SW | SW | SW | W | W | W G10 | W | W | W | S | SW | W | W | SW | NW |
| 2 days ago | E G15 | NE G8 | NE G8 | E | E | E | SE G15 | SE G14 | E G9 | E G12 | SE G12 | E | SE G14 | S | S | S G16 | S G14 | SW G22 | SW G25 | SW G28 | SW G20 | SW G26 | SW | SW G23 |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY | 44 mi | 60 min | E 9 | 6.00 mi | Fair with Haze | 29°F | 23°F | 78% | 1028.9 hPa |
Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
| 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | |
| Last 24hr | NW | NW | Calm | NW | NW | N | Calm | N | Calm | Calm | Calm | E | E | Calm | Calm | E | E | E | E | E | E | |||
| 1 day ago | SW | SW G23 | SW G23 | SW G26 | SW G30 | SW G28 | SW G27 | SW | SW | SW | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | NW | NW | NW |
| 2 days ago | E | E | E | E | E | SE | SE | SE | SE | SE | SE | SE | S | S | SW | SW G19 | SW G24 | W | W | SW | SW | SW G24 | SW | SW G21 |
Tide / Current Tables for
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program. |