Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oostburg, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:22PM Monday November 20, 2017 9:39 AM CST (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:35AMMoonset 7:16PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 906 Am Cst Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots until early morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
LMZ643 Expires:201711202300;;699623 FZUS53 KMKX 201506 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 906 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-202300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oostburg, WI
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location: 43.63, -87.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 201116
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
516 am cst Mon nov 20 2017

Update Large area of cirrus will sweep across southern wi next
hour or so from the northwest. Goes-16 microphysics enhancement
showing developing thin spots in cirrus shield so widespread
filtered sunshine still expected later this morning and afternoon,
which will aid in temperatures rising to around 50 and gusty
southwest winds this afternoon. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be
possible for several hours this afternoon.

Aviation(12z tafs) Will continue low level wind shear for
several hours at kenw as low level jet brushes far southern wi.

Otherwise, large area of cirrus about to sweep across southern wi
through the morning. Low to mid level moisture remains sparse
ahead of approaching cold front soVFR conditions to continue
through tonight into Tuesday morning. Low level wind shear
conditions return tonight as strong low level jet sets up across
the area.

Prev discussion (issued 326 am cst Mon nov 20 2017)
discussion...

today and tonight - confidence... Medium to high.

Short term guidance in good agreement. Core of colder air which
accompanied 300h jet axis has shifted off to the east late Sunday.

This has allowed more zonal flow to usher warmer air into southern
wi and the region overnight, which will continue into tonight ahead
of approaching strengthening cold front.

A warmer day lies ahead as increasing southwest winds carry milder
925h temperatures in the 5 to 7c range into southern wi. Can not
get too excited however as breezy southwest winds will add a chill
to the air. In addition, widespread cirrus over the northern plains
continues to race southeast and will be spreading across southern wi
early this morning. This cirrus is a result of high level warm air
and moisture advection as well as passing right entrance region of
upper jet. Cirrus should thin later this morning or early afternoon
so at least partial sunshine can be expected. The limited sunshine
and dry southwest breezes should still allow daytime temperatures to
warm into the upper 40s to around 50. Could even be a little
warmer, but hesitant to go to warm due to high clouds. Low level
winds strengthen this afternoon and tonight. Could experience some
gusts of 30 to 35 mph for an hour or two before surface cools a few
degrees this evening. The strong low level mixing and passing mid-
high clouds will keep temperatures mild until late tonight and
Tuesday morning when cold front sweeps through.

Tuesday - confidence... Medium
cold advection will be dominant with gusty northwest winds. 925
temps fall into the single digits celsius. Low level rh progs
show increasing stratus stratocu potential from mid morning into
the afternoon so expect a good deal of cloud cover as low level
thermal trough becomes established.

Wednesday - confidence... Medium
low level thermal trough eases with westerly 925 850 flow setting
up. More Sun and less wind than Tuesday with high pressure
ridging into into the area from the south.

Thanksgiving - confidence... Medium
fairly benign northwest mid level flow. Weak surface 850 trough
swings through that heralds in a little more warm air advection.

Dry pattern continues.

Friday - confidence... Medium
low level thermal ridging maxes out ahead of cold front approaching
from the northwest. 925 temps reach 10c or even a little higher.

Seeing some cloud potential increasing a bit earlier so not ready
to boost the superblend in a meaningful fashion just yet. Looks
like best potential for shra arrives Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday - confidence... Medium
another round of cold air advection sets up in the wake of the
fropa. Coldest 925 temps arrive Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

Aviation(09z tafs)... Amdar descent sounding into kmke measured
southwest winds at 44 knots at about 1500ft above the ground.

Hence added low level wind shear into eastern tafs through the
early morning.VFR conditions to continue with passing mid-high
clouds this period. Even stronger low level winds expected over
southern wi later this afternoon and tonight. Winds are expected
to increase to 45 to 55 knots less than 2k feet off the surface
resulting in an even stronger case for low level wind shear
despite gusty surface winds.

Marine... Several vessels in and near the near shore waters have
been reporting sustained winds of 18 to 23 knots last several hours.

Lake temperature is in the mid to upper 40s, which is creating a
steep low level inversion over the lake surface. This is allowing
gusty southwest winds to mix down to the lake surface and will
continue to do so through the morning with gust potential up to 30
knots. Hence wl move up start of small craft advisory to current
time.

Strongest low level winds expected to be this afternoon into
the evening. Possible a few gusts could reach gale levels but with
strengthening low level inversion over the lake, thinking
strongest wind gusts will remain elevated. Hence wl hold off on
upgrading to gale warning for now. Strong cold front will pass
across the near shore waters Tuesday morning resulting in the
winds shifting to the northwest and strengthening once again after
a brief 1-2 hour lull.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst Tuesday for lmz643>646.

Update... mbk
today tonight and aviation marine... mbk
Tuesday through Sunday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 8 mi40 min WSW 15 G 17 37°F 1009.7 hPa (-1.4)27°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 20 mi60 min WSW 11 G 16 38°F 1010.8 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 42 mi50 min SW 17 G 19 37°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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G32
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G28
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G31
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G30
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G26
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N6
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G11
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G12
N6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI14 mi47 minSW 1010.00 miFair37°F28°F70%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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W11W11W7SW5SW5SW4SW8SW7SW6SW9SW8SW8SW6SW5SW7SW8SW8SW9SW10
1 day agoN10N13N12
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2 days agoS13
G24
S18
G28
S21
G30
S19
G26
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G28
S18
G24
S18
G24
S17
G23
S14S10S9SW4CalmCalmNW4N3NW5N10N7N8N6N8N10N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.