Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM   Moonset 1:18 PM

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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 705 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon backing northeast late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Rain showers likely early in the afternoon, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight veering southwest early in the morning. Rain showers likely through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - West wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the morning, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing northeast late in the evening, then backing north after midnight becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 021354 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 854 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through early Friday morning. Isolated strong storms possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

- Limited rain chances late Saturday into Saturday night, followed by additional precipitation chances for the early to middle portion of next workweek.

UPDATE
Issued 854 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will move into the area over the next few hours. The most widespread rainfall will be along and west of I-90. It still looks like we may see a decrease in rain coverage for a time late morning and early afternoon (PoPs down into the 30-40% range), before another area of showers and storms moves through late afternoon and evening.
This second round will have a little more instability to work with, especially near the IL state line. Still thinking that the overall severe threat will be limited, but with at least marginal instability and sufficient shear, a few stronger storms remain possible.

Boxell

SHORT TERM
Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Today through Friday:

Low pressure will lift from the Central Plains early this morning into central Wisconsin by mid-evening. Low precip chances (<40%) will continue through early morning, with higher chances (50-80%) mid morning into the afternoon as moisture and forcing increase ahead of the low. Expecting at least some elevated instability to sneak into southern Wisconsin by early this afternoon. Best chance to see some surface based instability will be late afternoon into early evening towards the WI/IL border, as the warm slowly pushes northward into the area. Overall, it does seem that there will be a few thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. While CAPE will be limited and lapse rates aren't steep, shear looks fairly solid. So, still thinking there could be a couple stronger storms, with a severe storm not out of the question.

Temperatures will struggle through at least early today with the clouds and onshore winds north of the warm front. Should see some milder temps nudge in from the south as the warm front begins to lift through the area later today. Overall, models have the warm front farther north into the forecast area by late afternoon compared to 24 hours ago.

Showers should clear the east by around daybreak Friday, with clearing skies then west to east Friday morning. Looks like a nice day tomorrow, with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and highs around 70. Cooler temps are likely in the afternoon near the lake due to a lake breeze.

DDV

LONG TERM
Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday Night through Wednesday:

Friday night will have quiet weather across southern Wisconsin.
Mid-level shortwave trough then approaches forecast area on Saturday. It looks to move fairly quick, but timing should be favorable for another round of thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon, especially over southwest Wisconsin. It looks like there will be just enough of a period of heating, low level moisture return, and surface based potential energy for scattered or even a line of storms by late Saturday afternoon and early evening, eventually moving over Lake Michigan. Models indicating an approaching front, which should help surface moisture convergence. However, a few models are keeping the primary energy just south of the forecast area. Regardless, will watch timing of this potential event.

Aforementioned cold front moves through southern Wisconsin by Saturday night with drier air behind this front. Therefore, high expectation for clearing and cool temperatures for Saturday night.
Then, ridging aloft sets in for Sunday and Monday for dry conditions for parts of the great lakes and upper midwest. Both days will be warm with increase in surface wind on Monday.

Next system then moves out of the Rockies Monday night into Tuesday. Still much uncertainty this far out, but southern Wisconsin could end up with pieces of energy rotating around this more broad trough, along with a surface boundary nearby on Tuesday. It could result in periods of showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday night. Low level moisture should result in more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday.

KPL

AVIATION
Issued 854 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Rain and thunderstorms will become more widespread this morning, with additional convection expected this afternoon and evening.
Look for flight conditions to gradually deteriorate to MVFR, with periods of IFR possible in and around the heavier showers and storms. Winds will be from the east through late afternoon, before they transition to a more southerly and then southwesterly direction. West winds are then expected late tonight and into the day on Friday, with flight conditions improving to VFR by early Friday morning.

Boxell

MARINE
Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Low pressure over the Central Plains early this morning will lift to central Wisconsin by mid evening, continuing northward tonight. Breezy winds will transition from easterly ahead of a warm front early today, to southerly behind the front this evening into early tonight, and then westerly by early Friday.
Areas of fog will be possible tonight into early Friday as higher dewpoints advect through the area over the colder waters of Lake Michigan.

Lighter winds are expected Friday under high pressure. Winds will then likely be 15 knots or less through the upcoming weekend, with high pressure in place much of the time.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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