Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Portland, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:21PM Friday February 22, 2019 2:57 AM EST (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 956 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Snow. Rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of snow showers. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 956 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will build into the region to end the week with with quiet conditions through Saturday. A frontal system will cross the waters on Sunday with southeasterly winds strengthening during the day. As this system departs Sunday night...strong west and northwest winds will arrive and continue through Monday with gusts to gale force likely. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Portland, ME
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location: 43.65, -70.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 220319 aab
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
1019 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will gradually build in from the west tonight
through Friday night. High pressure will crest over the region
on Saturday before shifting offshore. A warm front will approach
from the southwest Saturday night and will lift into the region
on Sunday... Quickly followed by a cold front. A secondary cold
front will drop south through the region late Sunday night and
Monday. A strong northwest flow will set up across the region
Monday afternoon and will persist through Monday night and into
Tuesday. Winds will subside Tuesday afternoon as high pressure
builds in from the west. Low pressure will passes south of the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
10 pm update... Stratus is beginning to break up over the
coastal plain finally with any light snow showers or flakes
coming to an end. Farther to the northwest over central and
northern nh and portions of northwestern me showers continue.

Have adjusted pops based on latest radar trends. Temperatures
have had a slow decline in areas with cloud cover and have
adjusted overnight lows accordingly.

615 pm update...

forecast is on track and have made only a couple changes to the
overnight temperature and dew point curves. Sky cover is hanging
tough and have blended the cmc regional into the sky grids
which brings the sky cover amount up to where it currently is
and gives a more reasonable scenario for how the clouds will
hang on in the upslope areas and eventually dissipate in
downsloping regions. Pops were adjusted slightly for continuing
light snow showers over the higher terrain. These should
diminish the next few hours and hang on longest in the notches
and along the canadian border.

Previous discussion...

fair amount of cloudiness lingering behind departing low
pressure this afternoon but increasing westerly winds beginning
to clear southern new hampshire and the coastal plain. Expect
clouds to gradually diminish this evening downwind of the
mountains as high pressure builds in from the west. Clouds will
likely persist through the night in the north along with
scattered snow showers this evening. Lows overnight will range
from the mid to upper teens in the north and lower to mid 20s in
the south.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
High pressure will continue to build in from the west Friday and
Friday night. Lingering clouds in the mountains will gradually
clear Friday morning and northwesterly winds will subside in the
afternoon. Highs on Friday will range from the mid 20s to lower
30s north and mid 30s to lower 40s south.

Friday night looking mostly clear and cold as high pressure
crests over the region late. Lows will generally range through
the teens to near 20 along the coast.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
High impact weather potential:
* snow to potential mixed precipitation daybreak Sunday through
Sunday evening.

* advisory level winds possible late Sunday night into Monday.

--pattern and implications--
a look at the mid and upper level flow pattern early this afternoon
features a ridge off the west coast of north america with downstream
long-wave trough centered over the western untied states. East of
this feature is a confluent flow pattern..With an anomalous ridge
over the southeastern united states and over the western atlantic
+2-3 sigma at h5 with impulses riding north over this ridge having
been responsible for our sensible weather recently. This overall
configuration to the flow will continue through the coming
weekend... With one final... Stronger impulse moving over the
ridge... Helping to gradually suppress this feature... And introduce a
broad area of lower than normal mid level heights across the
northern united states in response to a weakening pacific influence
epo shifting negative with a rex block developing over the eastern
pacific. Overall... This pattern progression spells a seasonably
mild start to the forecast period... With one significant weather
system Sunday followed by a turn to a seasonably cold pattern
which appears to lock into place for next week... In agreement with
recent climate prediction center 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature
outlooks. Greatest threat for impactful weather will be in the
Sunday and Monday period.

--daily details--
Saturday: high pressure in control with t9s in the negative single
numbers suggesting highs at or a degree or two above seasonal norms
in the 30s to around 40. Expect increasing upper and eventual mid
level cloudiness in the afternoon and evening given the onset of top
down saturation as upper level warm advection overspreads the
region. This will continue into Saturday night with guidance
consensus favoring precipitation arrival in the predawn hours Sunday
over nh spreading east through western maine Sunday morning.

Sunday: a very similar pattern to what has just occurred over the
past 24 hours is expected on Sunday with a primary low moving
through the great lakes... And a weakness secondary low potentially
taking shape over southern new england and moving into the gulf of
maine. Moisture anomalies in the warm advection regime ahead of this
low are perhaps just a tad higher than last night S event with 2-3
sigma departures. The primary low certainly looks to be more
intense... Sitting around 980 mb at 12z Sunday... With a well agreed
upon position over northern lake michigan. Given the strength of
this low... Expect the airmass to be just a bit warmer... Both at the
surface and aloft... But the overall flavor of the outcome looks
similar. Expect this to be a snow event in the mountains and
foothills... That potentially ends with some drizzle or mix after the
bulk of precipitation is over. Bigger question will be over southern
nh and coastal me where precipitation will begin as snow before
potentially transitioning to a mix rain before ending. Ptype will
largely depend on the evolution of the secondary low... But given
what we have seen multiple times this past winter... Will continue to
keep temperatures lower than the guidance consensus closer to new
12z NAM . Current model QPF consensus would suggest near warning
level amounts of snow are possible where precipitation remains
snow... But models performed rather poorly with this past
event... Overdoing QPF by nearly a factor of 2. There is time to let
this part of the picture become clearer... But a plowable snow for
most locations appears likely for the daytime Sunday.

Sunday night - Monday: impressive cold advection regime takes over
behind departing low Sunday night... Driving arctic air back into the
region. For the daytime Monday... Isallobaric component aligns well
with low level gradient and h9 winds reaching 40-50kts. An early
look at model sounding profiles suggest over 50kts at the top of the
mixed layer with solid advisory level gusts supported by both this
and statistical guidance mex and experimental ecwmf MOS . The
details on this can certainly change... But a headline-able wind
event is a reasonable possibility particularly on Monday and have
highlighted this in the hazardous weather outlook. Otherwise...

temperatures won t move up very far... But actually won t be all that
cold given am temps aloft supporting a rise into the upper 20s to
mid 30s before temperatures fall to around zero north and 10-15 over
southern nh and coastal me Monday night. Wind chills will fall to
-10f north to +5 south given continued strong northwesterly winds.

Tuesday through Thursday: the pattern across the northeast during
the middle portion of next week will be characterized by fast flow
aloft... And gradually lowering mid level heights. The rapidity of
the flow suggests reduced confidence in timing particular features
at this range... And that is borne out in the differences between the
deterministic and ensemble guidance suite seen this afternoon. The
airmass looks to be seasonably cold... And the dominance of the
northern stream will preclude any high-impact precipitation makers.

However... There is some agreement of a weak wave embedded in the
fast flow during this period... Favoring some light snow or snow
showers for a time in the wed-thu period.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
Short term...VFR tonight will areas of MVFR ceilings in the
mountains this evening.VFR Friday through Friday night.

Long term...VFR Saturday and Saturday night with snow to mixed
precipitation event on Sunday bringing a roughly 18 hour period
of lifr ifr conditions. Beyond this... While mountains snow
showers will continue into early next week likely impacting
hie ...VFR conditions should dominate the other terminals for
Monday and Tuesday. West northwesterly winds on Monday will be
strong... With gusts of 40kts possible.

Marine
Short term... Continuing small craft advisories through tonight.

Long term... High pressure over the waters on Saturday... With a
frontal system passing through the waters on Sunday with reduced
visibilities and southeasterly winds strengthening to at least
sca levels... With low end gales possible. As this system pulls
east on Sunday night into Monday... Gale force winds appear
likely... With these winds continuing through Monday night before
diminishing into Tuesday. There is some potential for gusts to
reach near storm force late Monday.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Friday for anz150-152-154.

Near term... Hanes
short term... Sinsabaugh
long term... Arnott


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 3 mi57 min 38°F 35°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 12 mi67 min WNW 9.7 G 14 38°F 37°F3 ft1015.9 hPa (+2.7)24°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 25 mi57 min W 4.1 38°F 24°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 27 mi57 min NW 5.1 G 8.9 38°F 36°F1017.3 hPa (+3.6)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 33 mi113 min NW 14 G 18 39°F 38°F3 ft1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME1 mi66 minNW 710.00 miOvercast38°F23°F55%1016.9 hPa

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Last 24hrN5NW445553W7NW11W6W8W5CalmW13
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1 day ago3S4W443W544E5E3S11SE5S9S8S5S5S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
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Tide / Current Tables for Fore River, Maine
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Fore River
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:45 AM EST     10.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:51 AM EST     -1.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:06 PM EST     11.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:20 PM EST     -1.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.410.89.77.34.21.1-0.9-1.4-0.41.958.110.311.110.68.65.62.4-0.2-1.5-1.20.53.36.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cow Island, Maine
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Cow Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:42 AM EST     10.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     -1.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:03 PM EST     11.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:18 PM EST     -1.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.510.89.67.241-0.9-1.4-0.425.28.210.411.210.58.55.52.2-0.3-1.5-1.20.63.46.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.