Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Portland, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:53PM Thursday October 18, 2018 1:43 PM EDT (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 12:31AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1215 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.gale warning in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 1215 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Cold air pouring into the region behind a strong cold front will keep gale force winds going on the waters through much of the day. High pressure noses in late today and overnight. Winds and seas will briefly diminish, but another front crosses the waters late Saturday with another round of gusty offshore flow. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Portland, ME
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location: 43.65, -70.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 181555
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1155 am edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the west today and will shift
east overnight as a warm front pushes through southern quebec.

The warm front will continue to lift off to the northeast on
Friday with a southwesterly flow bringing milder air back into
the region. A cold front will approach from the west Friday
night and will cross the region on Saturday. A strong northwest
flow will set up behind the front Saturday night and Sunday.

High pressure will build in from the west Sunday night and will
shift offshore on Monday as a weak warm front lifts into the
region from the southwest. Low pressure crossing southern quebec
will drive a trailing cold front through the region on Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
Noon... Have cancelled the wind advisory. At this point the
strongest pressure gradient has moved to our east and while
scattered gusts to 30mph will continue through afternoon
damaging winds are not expected.

930am update... Winds
are starting to pick up with a few peak gusts to around 30kts
reported. Overall winds are slightly lower than forecast but
with the best mixing and cold advection over the next few hours
will leave the wind advisory in place for now.

Update... As expected snow showers are having
little trouble crossing the ridgeline and moving sewd across
the forecast area. There are even some very light accumulations
in the foothills... With some amounts approaching 2 inches in the
valleys N of the mtns. One fairly stable convergent band has
been meandering near the office... Giving us our first snow of
the season. Based on upstream WV satellite... There is still a
pocket of deeper moisture set to advect towards the nrn
zones... And so I have extended the pop for snow showers there
until later in the day.

Previous discussion... Strong CAA underway across the
region... Though at the moment much of this is occurring aloft.

The coldest air and strongest advection looks to be from around
sunrise thru midday. This is when I expect the strongest wind
gusts to occur... Coincident with that strong CAA and the diurnal
deepening of the boundary layer. Forecast soundings show mainly
30 to 35 kt gusts possible this morning... Though parts of w
central me could gust to 40 kts. The wind advisory is probably
too large in area... But at this point it will be gusty this
morning and I do not want to mix messaging by canceling some of
it now.

After some stronger initial convection along the front... It is
beginning to shallow out and become more of a traditional free
flow upslope regime. The favored nwly upslope zones will see
persistent snow showers thru mid morning... With light
accumulations possible. We will probably see a few of these
sneak past the mtns and move downwind as flurries. So if you are
up early keep an eye out for the first flakes of the season.

H8 temps will plummet to around -10c this afternoon... Supporting
a struggle for temps to get much out of the 30s downwind of the
mtns. In the north country... Temps may barely get above
freezing. However... Combined with the wind it will not matter
where you are located because it will feel at or below about 35
degrees everywhere.

Short term Friday
A bit of a tricky temp forecast tonight... With high pressure
trying to nose in at the surface despite continued cyclonic flow
aloft. So while early in the evening we may continue some caa
and keep the boundary layer mechanically mixed... The second half
of the night does offer a chance to decouple. This is especially
true as return flow aloft start to warm mid level temps. So i
blended more raw 2 m temps from guidance thru about 2
am... Followed by more of a radiational cooling mask to temps
thru sunrise. Either way the very cold air mass will support a
freeze and end to the growing season for all remaining forecast
zones.

Fri we will rebound back towards normal as the surface warm
front tries to lift back nwd. While it still looks near to below
normal... It will be a much more comfortable day than today.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Cold front will approach from the west Friday night as southwest
flow continues to transport warmer air into the region. Looking
for variable clouds overnight with a chance of showers in
northwest zones... Mainly after midnight. Lows will range from
the upper 30s north to the mid 40s in the south.

Cold front will gradually push in from the west on Saturday...

moving offshore by early evening. Looking for a mostly cloudy
day with a band of showers moving through the region in the
afternoon. Highs will range through the 50s to near 60.

Expect partial clearing Saturday evening as downsloping
northwesterlys kick in behind the front. Increasing upslope
flow and upper trough approaching from the west will keep the
mountains mostly cloudy overnight with snow showers becoming
more widespread after midnight. Lows will range through the 30s
from north to south.

Snow showers in the mountains Sunday morning may drop an inch or
two of accumulation before tapering off early Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere expect a mix of Sun and clouds with afternoon
temperatures well below normal. High will range from the upper
30s north to the upper 40s in the south. A strong northwest wind
will add to the chill through the day.

Ridge axis of high pressure building by to the south will shift
into the region Sunday night bringing diminishing winds. Low
will range through the 20s to near 30 in the far south.

High pressure will shift offshore on Monday with return flow
setting up an area of weak over-running to the west. This will
bring increasing clouds during the day with just a chance of a
sprinkle or flurry in northwest zones by late in the day. Highs
will remain below normal ranging from the mid 30s in the north
to the mid to upper 40s in the south.

Shortwave approaching from the northwest Monday night will
strengthen over-running as a warm front lifts into the region.

Will see a chance or showers or mixed precipitation... Especially
after midnight as a cold front pushes in from the west. Lows
will range from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south.

Weak low pressure crossing southern quebec on Tuesday will drive
a cold front through the region and offshore Tuesday afternoon.

Looking for a chance or rain showers for most of the region
possibly mixing with wet snow in the north. In any case QPF for
this event will generally be a tenth of inch or less. High
temperatures will range through the 40s.

Northwest flow behind departing low pressure will bring partial
clearing to the region Tuesday night as high pressure builds in
from the west. High pressure will dominate the midweek weather
with fair conditions lasting through Thursday.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Short term... GenerallyVFR conditions expected... With nwly and
downsloping winds across the forecast area. The exception will
be hie this morning... Where upslope shsn may occasionally
drift across the terminal. Local ifr or lower conditions are
possible... But will become less likely thru mid morning. Surface
gusts to 25 kts possible at all terminals... With 30+ kts
possible at aug and rkd especially. Winds stay breezy the first
half of the night... But gusts will diminish sharply.

Long term...

vfr Friday night.VFR Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in
scattered showers.VFR Saturday night and Sunday with areas of
MVFR ceilings and vsby in mountains snow showers.VFR Sunday
night and Monday.

Marine
Short term... Gale warnings continue... With winds expected to
ramp up towards daybreak. Strongest wind gusts will be this
morning into the early afternoon. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish late today as high pressure begins to nose in. Flow
becomes more swly fri... And some marginal SCA conditions are
possible from jeffreys ledge ewd to jeffreys bank.

Long term...

sca's may be needed Friday night and Saturday. Gales likely
late Saturday night and Sunday.

Equipment
Kgyx radar has returned to service as of noon Thursday.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for anz150>154.

Synopsis...

near term... Curtis
short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 3 mi43 min 44°F 55°F1019.7 hPa (+0.4)
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 12 mi53 min WNW 19 G 25 41°F 54°F2 ft1019.4 hPa (+0.9)21°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 25 mi43 min W 8 43°F 16°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 27 mi43 min NW 13 G 21 42°F 52°F1020.5 hPa (+0.0)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 33 mi99 min WNW 19 G 29 42°F 55°F3 ft1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME1 mi52 minWNW 19 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy43°F21°F42%1020 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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W10W10W6CalmCalmSW5SW7SW5--CalmCalmSW3SW6SW5W5SW6SW5SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Fore River, Maine
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Fore River
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:56 AM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     8.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     2.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     8.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.31.734.76.37.587.86.85.33.72.522.23.24.86.57.88.58.47.664.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cow Island, Maine
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Cow Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:54 AM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:12 AM EDT     8.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:11 PM EDT     2.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:22 PM EDT     8.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.31.834.76.47.587.86.85.23.62.522.33.34.96.67.98.58.47.55.94.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.