Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Portland, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:33PM Monday September 25, 2017 6:13 PM EDT (22:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:48AMMoonset 9:52PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 450 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 450 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will hold over the waters through the middle of the week. A cold front will cross the waters Thursday bringing scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Maria will pass well south and east of the region late in the week...with the only impacts being increased long period swell.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Portland, ME
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location: 43.65, -70.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 252102 aaa
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
502 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will hold over the region tonight and will shift
east on Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest
on Wednesday and will cross the region Wednesday night. Weak
high pressure will build over the region on Thursday. A
secondary cold front will drop south through the region on
Friday. High pressure will build in from the west over the
weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
505 pm update...

adjusted pops for this afternoon's showers across the higher
terrain. Expect these to dissipate in the next couple of hours.

No lightning is noted with these showers. Adjusted fog for the
overnight and morning hours. A climate section was added below
with manchester, concord, and augusta all breaking their high
temperature records today.

Previous discussion...

high pressure will hold over the region overnight. Expect
diurnal clouds and showers over the mountains to gradually clear
with the loss of heating this evening. High tds will result in
more dense valley fog overnight and may also affect coastal
areas. Lows overnight will will range from the mid 50s to mid
60s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Unseasonably warm weather will continue on Tuesday as high
pressure slides east. Will likely see another round of showers
and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms... .Mainly over the
mountains and higher terrain. Highs will generally reach the mid
to upper 80s in inland locations. Once again a sea breeze will
cap temps in the mid 70s to near 80 along the coast.

Another warm and muggy night on tap for Tuesday night. Expect
any lingering evening showers to clear. More dense fog will be
likely in valley locations. Lows overnight will range from the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The more active part of the extended is certainly the beginning.

We will see a continuation of the early fall heat wed. Model
guidance continues to show h8 temps in excess of +17c. That is
supported by ensembles as well. I have increased temps from the
previous forecast... As this supports widespread temps in the mid
to upper 80s... If not lower 90s in the typical warm spots. This
would be enough to see a few more records fall as well. In
addition to the heat... We will have higher dew points too. And
this is likely to lead to afternoon MLCAPE in the 500-1000 j kg
range... Despite poor lapse rates aloft. With an approaching S wv
trof and associated right entrance region of the h5 jet streak
we should see enough lift for at least scattered convection.

Forecast shear values on the order of 40 to 50 kts will be
favorable for storm organization... And SREF guidance is showing
an area of favorable conditions for strong to severe storms in
the region. The main question is timing at this point... And
whether or not storms can form and maintain before loss of
daytime heating. For now I have not added enhanced wording to
the grids... But that may be necessary with later shifts.

After the cold front pushes thru the forecast area Thu a
high pressure of continental origins settles in. This will bring
much cooler and drier wx than recent days. Given how warm it has
been though this is forecast to just bring temps back towards
normals. With the agreement in model guidance for the weekend
and beyond... I have gone with the multi-model consensus for days
4 thru 7.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
Short term...VFR with areas of ifr lifr ceilings and vsby in
morning fog.

Long term... For the most part high pressure will be in control.

That means widespreadVFR during the day... But valley fog and
lifr conditions especially at leb hie at night. We will have to
monitor marine fog stratus Tue night... As a warm front tries to
lift N thru the region. That could bring an extended period of
ifr or lower conditions for coastal terminals as well.

Marine
Short term... No flags.

Long term... In general winds look to remain below SCA thresholds
thru the end of the week. Increased swell will still remain
thanks to maria however... And a SCA for hazardous seas will
likely be necessary for late in the week.

Tides coastal flooding
Southeast, long period swell will begin to increase from the mid
week period through the weekend. This will lead to an increased
risk of rip currents.

Climate
The following 3 sites broke their high temperature records
today:
manchester reached 89 degrees at 3:20 pm, breaking the previous
record there of 87 in 1891.

Concord reached 90 degrees at 3:24 pm, breaking the previous
record there of 85 in 2007.

Augusta reached 88 degrees at 3:20 pm, breaking the previous
record there of 87 in 1891.

Portland reached 83 degrees and did not break their record of
88 set in 1970.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Hanes
short term... Sinsabaugh
long term... Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 3 mi44 min 67°F 60°F1017.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 12 mi84 min S 3.9 G 3.9 67°F 65°F3 ft1017.7 hPa (-0.8)64°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 25 mi74 min SE 2.9 72°F 66°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 27 mi44 min S 4.1 G 5.1 69°F 64°F1018 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 33 mi70 min S 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 64°F4 ft1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME1 mi23 minSE 610.00 miFair72°F64°F79%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3SW3CalmCalmCalmW4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6E10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW3W3CalmW3W3CalmW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmE3S7S8S9S9
G19
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2 days ago5E6E5CalmN53N5554344N554N7E3E63S6S6S6S4

Tide / Current Tables for Fore River, Maine
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Fore River
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:12 AM EDT     8.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:12 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:24 PM EDT     9.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.56.78.398.77.55.53.41.81.11.42.64.56.78.49.29.28.26.34.12.210.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cow Island, Maine
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Cow Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EDT     8.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:10 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:21 PM EDT     9.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.66.88.398.67.45.43.31.71.11.42.64.66.88.49.39.18.16.242.110.81.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.