Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Turin, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:24PM Saturday March 25, 2017 9:38 AM EDT (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:42AMMoonset 3:42PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 752 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain early...then rain late this evening. Rain and freezing rain after midnight. Patchy fog from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain, snow and freezing rain likely in the morning... Then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Scattered rain showers with a chance of freezing rain in the morning...then rain showers likely with a chance of freezing rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain during the day... Then scattered rain showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain showers likely during the day...then a chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:201703250300;;028591 FZUS51 KBUF 242352 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 752 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ045-250300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Turin, NY
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location: 43.65, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 251101
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
701 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain draped across the region today... Before
slowly lifting back north across the region as a warm front
Sunday and Monday. Several disturbances sliding along this
boundary will bring frequent bouts of precipitation through the
weekend and early next week... With cooler temperatures
prevailing north of the boundary and milder temperatures to its
south.

Near term /through tonight/
At 7 a.M. Surface observations showed a frontal boundary
dividing temperatures in the 50s from temperatures in the 30s
was draped across the western southern tier. Steadier showers
were located north of the surface boundary along a sharp mid-
level thermal gradient.

The boundary will continue to slide slowly south this morning, with
periods of rain expected to continue along the i-90 corridor, with
lowering chances to the south. There was some thunderstorms last
night due to elevated instability, and a few rumbles cannot be ruled
out this morning though this instability is limited.

Thermal profiles are colder across the eastern lake ontario region,
where there will be some mixed precipitation. The temperature of the
mid-level warm layer will be marginal (0 to +3c) with snow, sleet,
and freezing rain all a possibility. Although any snow or ice
accumulation should be light, this may result in some slick spots
this morning with a winter weather advisory in place. Temperatures
should rise above freezing late this morning.

High pressure near the ontario/quebec border will expand southward
and push the boundary to near the ny/pa state line. Model consensus
stalls the front here late this afternoon and evening. The lack
of motion should result in diminishing shower activity along
the boundary, though a stray shower cannot be ruled out.

The front should then lift back northward as the high drifts to the
east, with modest mid-level warm air advection increasing chances
for some light precipitation late tonight. This should mainly fall in
the form of rain, but there is a risk of freezing rain late tonight
across the eastern lake ontario region. Confidence in measurable
precipitation is low, but this may require another round of
headlines for this region.

With most of the area on the cool side of the front, temperatures
will be much cooler than yesterday. Highs will only be in the upper
30s in many areas, rising to the upper 40s near the pennsylvania
state line. Temperatures will not cool much tonight, before rising
late in the night as the frontal boundary lifts back northward into
the region. The exception is the north country where skies should
clear out, allowing for some radiational cooling and temperatures to
fall into the upper teens to lower 20s. The forecast hedges
toward high resolution guidance which is better able to resolve
the sharp temperature differences.

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/
Sunday a band of isentropic lift precipitation will lift across the
region, though with neutral temperature advection and ridging aloft
rain showers will likely be scattered in nature. Early morning
temperatures east of lake ontario will likely remain near or below
freezing. Expect another period of freezing rain Sunday morning
before surface temperatures rise above freezing. A northeast wind
through the saint lawrence valley may linger freezing rain chances
into the early afternoon.

Sunday night an area of low pressure will advance towards michigan,
and bring another increase in moisture across the lower great lakes.

Increased surface convergence, along with falling heights aloft by a
nearing shortwave of low pressure will bring increasing chances for
rain showers. Ahead of this surface low will be a fair amount of
instability across the ohio valley, but waning as it reaches wny.

Still there will be chances for thunder across SW nys Sunday
afternoon and evening. As the upper level shortwave passes Sunday
night and into Monday it will carry an area of showers across the
region.

Through the day Monday and Monday night the surface low will slowly
track eastward, just to the north of lake ontario. Abundant low
level moisture will maintain chances for rain showers through the
end of the forecast period.

Temperatures Sunday will rise well into the 50s across wny, though
se and E of lake ontario, highs will remain in the 40s. As winds
become SW Monday milder air will spread across the entire region,
with 50s, and possibly a few genesee valley lower 60s for highs.

Sunday night will remain mild with the SE winds and thick cloud
cover allowing for only a 5 to 10 degree drop in air temperatures.

Monday night will remain mild, with overnight lows in the 40s.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/
The lengthy unsettled period will last into Tuesday as the stalled
complex frontal zone remains nearby. Both the GFS and ECMWF based
guidance suggest one more wave moving along the frontal zone and
passing to our north on Tuesday, producing another round of showers.

Temperatures will remain mild given the northerly low track, with
highs at least into the 50s and possibly into the 60s for the
southern half of the area.

Tuesday night and Wednesday a mid level trough will amplify across
quebec and finally drive the frontal zone well south of our area,
with moisture and showers diminishing from northwest to southeast.

Cold advection associated with the trough will knock temperatures
back a few notches, with highs in the 40s Tuesday.

A slow warming trend should then ensue for the second half of next
week as the trough over quebec moves offshore of the canadian
maritimes and height rises/weak warm advection overspread the
eastern great lakes. Model guidance diverges by next Friday with
respect to the track of the next system. The GFS keeps most of the
energy and deeper moisture suppressed well to the south across the
ohio valley and southeast states, while the ECMWF takes a much more
northerly track through the great lakes and would be a warmer and
wetter solution. Given the time range and inherent uncertainty, have
just included chance pops for now.

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/
At 11z a frontal boundary is across the region, with this front
across the western southern tier near jhw. A northeasterly flow
north of this boundary will advect cooler air which will mix
with the moist air in place resulting in low cigs. This pattern
is climatologically favorable for ifr or lower CIGS at
buf/iag/roc/art and conditions. Expect ifr/lifr conditions to
last through mid-morning before improving a bit. There will
also be periods of precipitation and patchy fog, and an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through mid-morning just north
of the boundary due to elevated instability. Precipiation may
mix with snow or sleet at art.

Drier air will first build into art as the boundary pushes further
south, with conditions improving this afternoon and evening.

Elsewhere, expect a prolonged period of mainly ifr conditions as the
northeasterly flow persists.

Later tonight, expect ifr/MVFR conditions will continue south of
lake ontario, withVFR conditions at art.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday... MVFR/ifr CIGS with rain likely at times.

Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
A frontal boundary will push further south of lake ontario today,
briefly pushing south of eastern portions of lake erie. A
northeasterly flow will develop on the cool side of the front
requiring small craft headlines along the south shores of lake
ontario from late this morning through Sunday evening. Winds and
waves will also briefly build on lake erie southwest of dunkirk.

Conditions will be marginal, but expect there will be a shorter
period which meets small craft criteria late this afternoon and into
tonight.

After this, expect a benign pattern for the first half of next week
resulting in modest winds with any headlines unlikely.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
nyz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Sunday for lez040.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm
edt Sunday for loz042-043.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 48 mi51 min NNE 18 G 19 33°F 1023.4 hPa31°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 73 mi57 min 33°F 1025.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY28 mi1.7 hrsNNE 79.00 miOvercast32°F30°F94%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S10SE11SE8SE9S11SE8SE7E3CalmN3CalmN4N7N6N5N7NE6NE6N6NE7NE7NE7NE9
1 day agoW7SW6W6W9W9W12
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2 days agoN11
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NW5NW3CalmW3--CalmSW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW5W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.