Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Turin, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:39PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:16 PM EST (20:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:43PMMoonset 10:39PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 631 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers early. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Snow. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow with rain likely. Waves 1 foot or less building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:201811141600;;288618 FZUS51 KBUF 141135 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-141600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Turin, NY
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location: 43.65, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 141948
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
248 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Lake effect snow showers will continue downwind of lake erie and
lake ontario this afternoon. Snow showers will end this evening as
an area of high pressure moves into the northeast tonight. The next
system will begin to impact the region Thursday afternoon and last
through Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will
expected before changing to all snow by Friday morning. Ice and snow
accumulations are likely.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Scattered lake effect and upslope snow showers are ongoing
across much of western ny as cold, northwest flow continues to
move over the eastern great lakes. This cold airmass continues
to provide lake induced instability downwind of the lakes with
850mb temperatures around -15c. High pressure centered over
southern michigan will continue to move east, lowering inversion
heights and suppressing snow showers. Northwest winds will veer
into this evening becoming northerly and any snow showers will
become isolated and move into the genesee valley and western
finger lakes. Localized snowfall accumulation of up to an inch
is expected through the afternoon.

High pressure moves overhead this evening and into southern quebec
and northern new england Thursday morning. Besides some isolated
snow showers late tonight, dry and cold conditions are expected
overnight. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to low 20s,
except the low teens at higher elevations east of lake ontario. Warm
air advection begins aloft overnight and although it will be moistly
dry, cloudy conditions are expected into Thursday.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday night
Isentropic ascent centered in the 290-300k layer increases
rapidly during the afternoon on Thursday. This is in advance of
a warm push aloft commiserate with the filling inland low that
will be moving northward west of the allegheny front. A secluded
bubble of warm air aloft has been well depicted on several
successive runs of guidance that penetrates up into the southern
tier of new york with fairly good run-to-run continuity. Some
higher resolution guidance further advances this elevated warm
bubble toward buffalo and rochester, as well. With this in mind,
precipitation type becomes the biggest ball of wax to deal with
Thursday afternoon and evening as the column saturates and
lifting increases.

Warm air aloft looks to get eroded by dynamical cooling as well as
cold air impinging from the the west as the coastal low gradually
takes over into Thursday night. This will allow for the secluded
bubble to erode as it advances eastward toward the northern finger
lakes such that it eventually becomes nonexistent. Before that
juncture, however, strong moisture transport in the lifted
layer means several hours of potential mixed precipitation in
the southern tier, south towns, and southern half of the
rochester area. Farther north, with less certainty on the warm
layer persisting, the forecast was trended more strongly toward
snow sleet as the gfs ECMWF both favor colder profiles, even
though higher resolution guidance does not.

Regardless of the profiles followed, this does not look like a very
efficient snow maker in terms of snow-to-liquid ratios. While lift
is strong in the 290-300k layer and does bisect the dendritic growth
layer, substantial riming below that layer will cut back on
ratios. With that in mind, slrs were capped at about 10:1 and
greatly reduced south of the thruway due to the influence of
warm air aloft and sleet freezing rain mixing into the frozen
precipitation spectrum. Regardless, in areas were it remains all
snow, a solid advisory snow seems likely, and in areas where it
doesn't, advisories will be necessary for icing. The only place
this isn't the case looks to be niagara county, which several
successive runs have shown to be just a tad outside of the
northwest fringe of the action from this system.

As the coastal low intensifies on late Thursday night early Friday
and moves northeast along the coast, a period of enhancement from
the apex of the trowal airstream may allow for a secondary maxima in
snowfall from allegany county toward lewis county. This would help
to enhance snowfall amounts there even in the areas that are likely
to see snowfall reduced Thursday evening because of mixed
precipitation. This is the biggest piece of uncertainty in the
forecast. Should these areas remain all snow earlier, it would be
likely that winter storm warnings would be necessary.

Otherwise, drier air in the dendritic layer starts to advect into
the area from the west on Friday. This will allow for a tapering off
of snow into drizzle or freezing drizzle through the late morning
and early afternoon hours. As cold air takes its sweet time
advancing into the area, the boundary layer does not look likely to
cool off enough behind the system on Friday to make this be a
persistent affair.

The next system to affect the area advances eastward on
Saturday. This will bring a round of lake enhanced snow showers
and much colder drier air behind it. Temperatures will really
take a nosedive Saturday night with persistence of this pattern
into the long term period.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the great lakes
and northeastern states in the extended portion of the forecast...

resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures.

Speaking more specifically... We can expect daily highs to mostly be in
the 30s... While nightly lows range from the upper teens lower 20s across
the north country to the mid and upper 20s elsewhere. Such readings will
be more typical of mid-winter than the middle of november.

While below average temperatures remain a virtual lock in the long
term... The models have rather markedly diverged away from yesterday's
modest agreement on the path... Timing... And strength of any migratory
surface troughs that might affect our region during this time frame...

and by extension the orientation and strength of the resultant low
level wind field across our region at any given point. As such...

forecast confidence in the timing placement of both synoptically-
driven and lake-driven precipitation has significantly decreased...

and have therefore had to transition to the use of broadbrush chance
pops for the bulk of this period. Given current forecast temperatures...

the bulk of any precipitation will likely fall in the form of
snow.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Lake effect and upslope snow showers continue across western ny this
afternoon.VFR conditions are expected at the terminals as snow
showers move further inland. Snow will taper off into this evening
as high pressure moves overhead.

Attention moves to the next storm system that spreads wintry
precipitation across the terminals beginning as early as Thursday
afternoon. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely
across the W southern tier including kjhw Thursday afternoon. This
will spread northward to the lake plains including kiag, kbuf and
kroc by Thu evening. A wintry mix will transition to all snow by
Friday morning. Reduced CIGS and vsbys are expected Thursday through
Friday resulting in a high impact aviation period.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday... MVFR ifr possible in wintry mix of sleet
and snow.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of
both lakes in lake rain and or snow.

Monday... MVFR ifr with a chance of snow showers.

Marine
A northwest wind will continue to diminish this afternoon. Waves
will follow suit by this evening bringing an end to small craft
advisory conditions. Another coastal low will bring the next wintry
mix potential Thursday afternoon into Friday. A mix of snow, sleet
and freezing rain is expected before changing to all snow by Friday
morning. The strongest winds will remain off shore through Thursday
night. Westerly winds increase Friday and small craft conditions
will return for the end of the work week and into the weekend.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm Thursday to 1 pm est Friday
for nyz004>008.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 11 am est Friday
for nyz002-003-010-011.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm Thursday to 11 am est Friday
for nyz012>014-019>021-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon
for loz042.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
loz043>045.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Hsk
short term... Fries
long term... Jjr
aviation... Hsk
marine... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 48 mi28 min NW 7 G 11
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 73 mi34 min 24°F 49°F1033.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY28 mi80 minNW 8 G 1710.00 miFair25°F4°F41%1032.6 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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N9NW6N5NW3CalmCalmNE5CalmW4W8W11
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1 day agoS4S4SE4SE3CalmS9S14S8SW5SW5SE4SE3S6S6SE5SE6SE6S3CalmNW3W4W6W4NW13
G20
2 days agoW6SW3S3CalmS5S5S6S7SE7SE7SE8SE8SE7SE7SE8SE5SE7S5SE3SW10SW6SW11SW9SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.