Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sandy Creek, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday May 19, 2019 7:11 AM EDT (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 5:21AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1055 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2019
Overnight..East winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Showers likely late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201905190915;;093119 FZUS51 KBUF 190255 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1055 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-190915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandy Creek, NY
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location: 43.65, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 191054
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
654 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will move northeast across the region early today.

Much warmer and more humid weather will move into the region
with temperatures rising into the lower 80s away from the
lakeshores. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms
today and tonight, but plenty of rain free time as well. A cold
front will cross the area Monday with gusty winds and a few more
showers. Much cooler air will move back into the region Monday
night and Tuesday behind this cold front.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Surface warm front currently accelerating northward into the area.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms has increased north of the
boundary under continued low level jet theta-e advection. As the
warm front continues to push northward this morning ongoing
convection will also push north and east.

The area will be entrenched within the well-mixed warm sector by mid
day. Ahead of an approaching cold front, moisture will continue to
advect northward with surface dewpoints rising well into the 60s
with temperatures reaching the lower 80s. A ribbon of instability
will develop (ml capes values to near 2000 j kg) with thunderstorms
likely developing across interior areas during the afternoon into
the early evening. The stage will be set for possible strong-
severe storms as an incoming shortwave provides sufficient lift
and increased deep layer shear (30-35 knots). Given the shear
and stability profiles, along with dry air aloft, strong,
damaging winds and hail are certainly possible. SPC day 1
outlook has most of the area in a slight risk.

Tonight, evening convection should slowly wane and push eastward.

However, with the main cold front still expected to approach the
area from the west overnight, additional showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday night
A cold front will track across western and north central ny Monday.

Mild conditions will start the day with temperatures and dewpoints
in the low 60s. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across
western ny in the morning as the front moves through and interacts
with any lingering lake breezes. The eastward moving front will give
little time for the rest of western ny to destabilize so coverage
will be low. East of lake ontario will see the best shot for
thunderstorms to develop ahead and along the front as surface based
cape increases to 500-1000 j kg and a strong wind field persists
Monday afternoon. An isolated strong to severe storm cant be ruled
out across lewis and eastern oswego counties before moving east of
the area. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 60's across
the niagara frontier and near lake erie to the low to mid 70's
southeast of lake ontario. Breezy southwest winds are expected
through the afternoon.

The front will move through the region by Monday evening. A
shortwave trough will track across the region Monday night while
high pressure moves in from the great lakes. Low to mid level
moisture will be trapped under a strengthening subsidence inversion
making for a cloudy night. Low temperatures will fall into the low
to mid 40's overnight.

High pressure will continue to build into the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Moisture will depart the region by Tuesday afternoon
making for a mostly sunny day. Cooler temperatures expected with
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Radiational cooling will likely
occur Tuesday night as the center of the high moves overhead. Fog
development is possible especially in valley locations. Patchy frost
is also possible across the north country.

High pressure will move east but be in control on Wednesday. Another
dry and sunny day is expected with highs in the low to mid 60's.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Ridging will develop over the southeast u.S. Through the long term
period. A deepening trough over the west coast and intermountain
west will initiate active weather over the western half of the
country. Active weather from the western trough will trek northeast
over the ridge resulting in mostly weak waves of low pressure to
pass over near the western and north central ny area for most of
this period. Showery conditions are expected late Wednesday through
Saturday morning.

Temperatures will warm from the low to mid 60s on Wednesday to the
upper 60s and 70s for the rest of this period through the weekend.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Warm front just north of the area is resulting in widely scattered
showers but these have mainly stayed south of kroc and kart the last
couple hours. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
late this morning as a much warmer and humid airmass builds across
the area. Smaller chances will occur over far western ny with
greater chances this aftn at kroc and kart. After these showers and
thundrerstorms diminish late this aftn, expect another round of
showers and thunderstorms for all the terminals tonight as a cold
front approaches western ny.VFR conditions will prevail with any
MVFR ifr restrictions being spotty brief in the heavier showers and
thunderstorms. After llws diminishes early at kart, expect more llws
at all TAF sites tonight ahead of the cold front.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR MVFR with scattered showers and gusty winds. Tuesday
and Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
A warm front will move northeast across the eastern great lakes this
morning, with relatively light winds expected through this evening.

A few scattered thunderstorms will cross the area through tonight.

Low pressure will then move across southern ontario and quebec late
tonight and Monday, with a trailing cold front crossing the eastern
great lakes Monday. Southwest winds will increase as the low passes
by to our north, likely producing southwest-west winds to at least
20 knots. The moderate winds will last into Monday night before
diminishing by Tuesday as high pressure builds into the great lakes.

Tides coastal flooding
A cold front will move across the eastern great lakes Monday as
low pressure moves east across ontario and quebec. Southwest
winds will increase Monday morning across lake ontario, then
become more westerly during the afternoon and evening following
the cold frontal passage. The increase in westerly winds will
bring higher waves on lake ontario, combining with very high
lake levels to bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding on
the east half of lake ontario.

For monroe, orleans, and niagara counties, the westerly winds
will be shore parallel Monday and Monday night, which will
likely not increase lakeshore flooding and erosion as much as
the eastern portion of the lake.

Winds will become more northwest late Monday night and Tuesday.

Model guidance shows some variation on wind speeds by Tuesday.

The GFS is strongest, and would bring lakeshore flood potential
to the entire south shore of the lake. The NAM and gem are
weaker, and would keep winds and wave action below the criteria
for an increase in lakeshore flooding. Given the uncertainty,
will continue to mention this period in the hwo for now.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
morning for nyz007.

Lakeshore flood watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for nyz004>006.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Tma
short term... Hsk
long term... Hsk levan
aviation... Jla
marine... Hitchcock tma
tides coastal flooding... Hitchcock hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 20 mi42 min SSE 13 G 18 59°F 1011.4 hPa52°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 36 mi72 min S 12 G 14 46°F 39°F1010.5 hPa (-1.3)
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi42 min 48°F1011.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 78 mi72 min SSW 12 G 17 69°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi42 min 68°F 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY22 mi18 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds58°F50°F75%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N6SW43N43NW6NW7N8N7NE5NE4NE4E3Calm33E34SE3SE5SE45SE4
1 day agoCalmW6NW9NW11NW10W11NW14W9NW14
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W7W7W5N4NW3CalmCalmNE4NE4NE3Calm
2 days agoN7NW5CalmW6NW8--NW8NW12
G19
NW10NW7W4CalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm3Calm66E3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.