Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM   Moonset 11:11 AM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 524 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Tonight - North winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely early. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 010850 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 450 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure building overhead today will gradually shift east across the area through Friday morning supporting dry weather.
A series of fronts will slide across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and some rumbles of thunder.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early this morning, a passing weak secondary frontal boundary is supporting an abundance of low level moisture and light winds. This is acting to maintain the cloud cover and patchy fog across the Lake Ontario shoreline, the Finger Lakes region and eastern Lake Ontario. Meanwhile, some clearing has been occurring across the western Southern Tier, causing temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 40s.

A progressive mid-level shortwave ridge, and associated weak surface high will pass across the forecast area today. This will support fair dry weather along with some warm air advection. Temperatures today will warm up into the 60s east of Lake Ontario and low to mid 70s elsewhere.

The next shortwave trough will pass east across northern Ontario and Quebec, Canada tonight, supporting a moisture starved cold front to push across the region. Despite the frontal passage, mainly dry weather will continue though a few showers will be possible across the North Country. For those dry area, the frontal passage will be noted by the patchy clouds and subtle wind shift. Temperatures tonight will range in the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging developing over the central Great Lakes Thursday will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Friday. This will allow dry weather through most of Friday afternoon before an area of showers approaches from the west. Northwest flow Thursday keeping lake areas cooler in the lower to mid 60s, perhaps even a few degrees cooler along the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline. The warmest readings Thursday will be inland with readings reaching into the lower 70s.

Warm advection develops Friday as the flow turns southerly with the upper ridge parked over the area and a surface high centers off the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be increasing mid and upper cloud cover during the afternoon which may temper high temperatures a bit, but most readings should get into the 70s with some lower 80s for normally warmer interior sections of the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Deepening moisture and the slow approach of the cold front will start to gradually bring in chances for showers starting late Friday across far western New York. However, given the strong mid/upper ridge over the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing off and lifting well northwest of the area into Minnesota and Canada, feel that the cold front may be even slower to enter the region than models suggest, which could delay precipitation chances until Friday night. There is the potential for elevated rumbles of thunder Friday night with nocturnal moisture transport and low level jet forcing.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A vertically stack low pressure system located over NW Ontario Canada will slowly drag a cold through the eastern Great Lakes. Due to the slow progression of this front, and then a potential secondary front have kept low end PoPs across much the the forecast area into Sunday. We should see a fairly widespread area of rain Saturday move from west to east, which then gives way to chances for showers into Sunday. Brief surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes Sunday night, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west to east.

Dry weather looks to persist through much of Monday but yet again another warm frontal boundary will begin to approach from the southwest. This will introduce a chance of shower either late Monday night or during the day Tuesday. Still some timing issues to work out but have once again added chance PoPs reflecting the front nearing and entering the region.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An abundance of low level moisture across Lake Ontario has spread across the Lake Ontario shoreline and North Country, in addition to a frontal passage across the Finger Lakes. As such, the low level moisture is supporting some patchy fog across the Lake Plains and Finger Lakes region, impacting mainly the IAG terminal this morning.

Surface high pressure will spread across the region today, causing all TAF sites to return to VFR. While a surface low well to the north of the area passes east today/tonight, a moisture starved front will pass across the region, supporting mainly VFR cloud cover to pass across the Lake Ontario shoreline and North Country.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather.

MARINE
Weak pressure gradients are expected throughout the majority of the week across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. While the week will remain quiet, a few showers and thunderstorms may be possible Friday night through Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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