Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:37 AM EST (05:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 942 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201801181000;;612208 FZUS53 KDTX 180245 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 942 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-181000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 180501
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1201 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Aviation
Uncommon warm advection pattern is now setting up over the northern
and central great lakes region as pacific moisture plume advects
directly into southeastern michigan from the northwest. Developing
fast zonal gradient flow is setting the initial stage, with warm
advection getting accentuated Thursday in advance of the vigorous
shortwave that will dig directly down through the u.P. Into lower
michigan. High cloud now filling in over lower michigan is occuring
on the initial warm air advection aloft. The main item in the
forecast period is the overall likelihood of widespread MVFR cloud
development that is forecasted to occur between 1.5 and 4.0 kft agl
Thursday morning. Relatively higher westerly gradient flow will
persist through the TAF period with winds in the 15 to 25 knot range
throughout the TAF forecast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs AOB 5kft after 14z Thursday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 348 pm est Wed jan 17 2018
discussion...

cloud trends will be the primary subject of the forecast for tonight
with the main question being how active lake michigan will be in
producing stratus stratocu. Observations show the mid and high
clouds overhead associated with the exit region of the upper jet
over northern ontario and a broad region of mid level isentropic
ascent. These will exit eastward during the evening and allow a
broad short wave ridge to force a subsidence inversion over lower
michigan later in the night. Observations also show very dry
conditions in place over the upper midwest and northern plains.

Warmer air is moving into this region on increasing southwest flow
but satellite indicates no low clouds anywhere to our west. This
does not mean that lake michigan will not activate, only that the
forecast sides with model solutions that offer more limited coverage
of low clouds until observational trends support a more aggressive
approach. Expect temperatures to continue an upward response to the
increasing southwest wind, gusting near 30 mph during the evening,
however wind chill will end up around zero for much of the night as
overnight lows settle in the teens.

The expectation of scattered to broken lake clouds to start Thursday
will be directed farther north under gradually backing low level
flow during the afternoon. Mid and high clouds associated with the
compact upper level circulation will also pass mostly through the
northern great lakes. This moisture starved feature will barely be
capable of precipitation and then only on the northeast flank over
northern lake huron where dynamic forcing will be maximized. The
passage of the circulation will mark the beginning of broad upper
level height rises associated with continued low level warm
advection to finish the week. The pattern will be dry but steadily
warmer with highs pushing 40 Friday afternoon.

Significant increase in upper mass gradient is anticipated over the
next few days as east pac jet energy releases into the northern tier
of the us against the southern periphery of the tropospheric polar
vortex hudson bay northern quebec. Trailing energy will dig into the
southwest united states Saturday through Sunday, prompting a lee
cyclogenesis episode as strong right entrance support steadily
matures through the weekend and becomes increasingly focused over
the great lakes region. Light warm advection overrunning type precip
will be possible as early as Sunday morning as the low-level jet
responds and moves up the developing frontal slope. Surface cyclone
is then progged to lift from the lower missouri river valley to the
straits by Monday into early Tuesday. Strong model support that se
michigan will remain on the warm side of this system, supporting
temps on the milder side for late january. There is potential for
pre-fropa temps on Monday to make a run toward 50 before showers and
possibly t-storms along the front shift through the area. Cold lake
temps ice on lake erie suggest usual caveats with northward
progression of the surface portion of the warm front. Will leave out
t-storms and remain more conservative, low to possibly mid 40s, with
temps for now. Overall extended period characterized by temps on the
warm side of average, high pops early next week, and mainly liquid
precip. Per the norm, a brief snow-fzra-rain transition is possible
as the warm front lifts through Sunday.

Marine...

a gale warning will remain in effect through Wednesday night as
strong, unstable southwest flow peaks this evening. A tight pressure
gradient between arctic high pressure over the tennessee valley and
low pressure near james bay will continue driving southwest gusts
approaching 40 knots across saginaw bay and the nearshore waters
with gusts reaching 40 knots over the open waters of lake huron
through late Wednesday night. The pressure gradient will then weaken
slightly early Thursday as the low pressure near james bay departs
to the east allowing winds to gradually decrease Thursday morning.

Southwest flow will then continue through the remainder of the week
with diminishing gust potential due to an increasingly warm, stable
fetch.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Bt jvc
marine... ... .Jd
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi37 min WSW 18 G 21 22°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi57 min SSW 21 G 24 21°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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W8
G12
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W3
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N18
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S14
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G27
SE24
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G24
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S6
G12
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NW4
NW4
G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi44 minSW 23 G 3010.00 miFair and Windy23°F16°F74%1017 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi42 minSW 18 G 2310.00 miFair and Breezy21°F15°F80%1016.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi42 minWSW 12 G 1710.00 miFair25°F15°F69%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SW3SW6W7SW7SW7SW6SW9SW10SW14SW14SW15SW17SW13W15
G24
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SW18SW17
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SW15SW23
G29
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1 day agoN4N5N5N4W3SW7W4SW5SW6W4W5S4N8N6N6N7CalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmW4W5
2 days agoSE8S12SE11SE8SE10SE9E9E10E10E10E10E9E11E10E9E8E9E7E5NE5NE4N5N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.