Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:22PM Monday June 26, 2017 3:01 PM EDT (19:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 10:31PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1001 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Partly cloudy with isolated light showers late in the morning...then mostly cloudy with scattered light showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy until early morning becoming partly cloudy. Scattered light showers early in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms until early morning. Isolated light showers in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with isolated light showers early in the morning...then mostly Sunny in the late morning and early afternoon. Partly cloudy late in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201706262115;;850118 FZUS53 KDTX 261401 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-262115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 261644
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1244 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Aviation
Vfr through the period with widely scattered very light showers this
afternoon. Convergent corridor noted on visible imagery is expected
to lift through the ptk fnt areas early in the forecast period while
larger scale forcing remains more prominent toward mbs, thus the
longer lasting tempo group. Isolated shower not out of the question
in the detroit area but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast attm. MVFR stratus over the up and NE wi is mixing out with
diurnal heating. Expecting some redevelopment overnight, which is
hinted at by the guidance but not necessarily fully captured. Moved
forward with a few hours of high MVFR at all locations. Clear skies
and a modest northwest flow by Tuesday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs AOB 5kft tonight

Prev discussion
Issued at 353 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
discussion...

michigan will remain entrenched within an upper trough encompassing
the great lakes once again today. Upper heights will fall this
morning as a strong upper shortwave over northern minnesota and
wisconsin approaches. The wave will cross lower michigan this
afternoon and evening, helping to provide a focus for showers and a
few thunderstorms. Cold pool associated with this wave will track
through central michigan, once again focusing the highest coverage
of showers tstorms over the northern portion of the forecast area.

That being said, will keep pops in the low to mid range as low-level
dry air remains in place below 7000 feet and we see little in the
way of moisture advection today. Instability does not look too
strong given cool temperatures, with ml CAPE expected to remain less
than 500 j kg. This should limit potential for thunder to isolated,
along with accompanying heavy rainfall. Conditions will become
breezy this afternoon and continue through the early evening.

Surface low pressure near lake huron will deepen today as the strong
upper wave approaches. This will create a moderately tight westerly
gradient between this low and high pressure building into the plains
and ohio valley. Mixed layer looks to support gusts to around 30
mph. Cool air will remain in place under the upper trough, while
clouds during peak heating limits insolation. This should keep max
temperatures down in the mid 50s to near 70 today, fairly similar to
yesterday.

Upper wave and instability generated by its cold pool will slide east
this evening, leaving subsidence in its wake. Showers should push
out of most of southeast michigan during the evening, with just a
few showers persisting over the thumb late. Skies are not expected
to begin clearing until towards sunrise however, as moisture axis
now over the northern great lakes pivots down through the area as
the low exits. Limited radiational cooling potential will hold min
temps in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Some of the moisture lingering from behind the low will remain over
the area, especially the eastern portion of the forecast area, into
Tuesday as moisture builds during the heat of the day. This could
potentially fire off a few showers or even a thunderstorm,
particularly closer to the lake shores if the gradient relaxes
enough for lake breezes to work inland. High pressure expanding into
the area from the ohio valley may suppress any convection, however.

Quieter weather is expected for most of Wednesday as the high
becomes the dominant feature.

More active pattern then looks to become established from Wednesday
evening through the end of the week as upper energy off the west
coast moves into the upper midwest and great lakes. Strong low-level
jet under a region of upper diffluence combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates Wednesday night could ignite complex of storms along a
warm front as it lifts through the upper midwest and western great
lakes. This area of rain thunderstorms would then move into lower
michigan late Wednesday night, maintained by the low-level jet.

Severe weather is not yet a concern for southeast michigan overnight
as activity looks to remain elevated and lapse rates don't really
begin to steepen until after sunrise. Primary threat right now looks
like potential for heavy rain as precipitable water values rise to
around 1.75 inches.

Marine...

another period of gusty westerly conditions will emerge today, again
warranting small craft advisories for saginaw bay, lake st clair and
the michigan waters of lake erie. A standand response with gusts
peaking during the afternoon, before rapidly easing by sunset. Light
to moderate wind will then dominate until the arrival of the next
system Wednesday into Thursday. Moderate southerly wind will
transition to fresh southeasterly during this time, the stable
southerly fetch limiting gustiness.

Hydrology...

scattered showers will again develop today, with the greatest
coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours. Though rain
may briefly be heavy on a local basis, basin average rainfall is
expected to remain under one tenth of inch today and no noteworthy
response to area rivers and streams is anticipated. The next chance
for organized rainfall will be Wednesday night into Thursday when up
to one half inch of rain will be possible. Rivers levels along the
tittabawassee river continue to slowly fall, with the river expected
to drop to moderate flood stage later this morning. Meanwhile, the
saginaw river continues to slowly rise and will crest on Tuesday
morning at moderate flood stage.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Hlo
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi61 min W 14 G 19 63°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.3)
45163 26 mi41 min W 12 G 14 63°F 60°F2 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi59 min SW 9.9 G 21 61°F 1014.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi81 min W 5.1 G 9.9 62°F 1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NW6
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi68 minWNW 9 G 2410.00 miRain60°F51°F72%1015.1 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi65 minNW 17 G 292.50 miHeavy Rain57°F42°F59%1014.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi69 minW 15 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F45°F44%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9
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W15W7W7W6W4SW6SW6SW5SW7SW7W7W11SW6W13W14
G19
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W11W14NW9
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1 day agoW13W13N3NE6NE4CalmW3W6SW4SW6SW7SW5SW8SW6SW8SW9W10W11W12W13W12W8SW6W7
2 days agoW9NW9NW7W9W11W8W6W5W9W8W9W8W6W6W3W5NW5SW5SW7W9W11W13W15
G23
W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.