Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:59PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 7:59 AM EDT (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:57AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 341 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy becoming partly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming mostly Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly cloudy late in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201703281515;;198091 FZUS53 KDTX 280741 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 341 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ422-281515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 281051
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
651 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Aviation
Ongoing shallow cold air advection within a moist low level
environment has led to widespread ifr stratus with some lifr/vlifr
cigs as well. Some subtle low level drying and cold air advection
along with daytime heating will gradually lift the cloud bases to
MVFR, likely late this morning or early afternoon. There will be a
push of drier air from the north later in the day that will erode
the stratus deck during the evening.

For dtw... The gradient will support a steady north-northeast wind
during the entire day. Boundary layer growth due to daytime mixing
will sustain the wind speeds around 10 knots. Timing of the lifting
of cloud bases to MVFR carries some degree of uncertainty, but
should occur sometime between 15z and 17z.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 feet this morning through mid evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 322 am edt Tue mar 28 2017
discussion...

quiet forecast through the midweek period as high pressure aloft and
at the surface build into the region. The last of whatever light
showers can develop over the far southern CWA will move off early
this morning but only a slow improvement in cloud cover will be
realized. The surface high currently over manitoba, will track
across ontario and quebec through the week which will place us in
the southern periphery of the ridge resulting in drier and cooler
easterly flow. Expect a cooling trend through Thursday in response
to this sustained easterly flow. Stronger subsidence aloft due to an
amplifying ridge ahead of the next southern stream trough will dry
the column out from the top down. Basically we'll end up with a low
stratus deck around 2-3kft by this afternoon that should scour out
from north to south allowing some Sun by nightfall.

Will keep with the cool easterly flow in the low levels on Wednesday
but a drier airmass will result in plenty of Sun through the day.

Could see some cirrus debris ahead of the next system and also a few
diurnal CU early in the diurnal cycle before scattering out. The
next system will be over the southern plains Wednesday, pinching off
from the northern jet. Southern jet tries to absorb it but some
energy in the trough remains tied to the northern jet which isn't
doing the models any favors. Overall they are pretty well in sync but
the setup could turn one way or the other pretty quick. As for now
will go with persistence forecasting with the steady model output.

The low will lift northeast Wednesday night with good warm air
advection centered around 5-10kft ahead of it into the region. Low
level easterly flow from the surface high will hold through the day.

Looks like the initial rain will stay to our west late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning as the 850mb jet surges northward over
wisconsin. This would all be elevated showers on the lead isentropic
leaf but gets a little complicated by the right entrance region of
the northern stream jet MAX over northern lower. Models are trying
to light up this eastward extension of the elevated front Thursday
morning from about flint northward. Dry air in the lowest ~8kft will
make it tough for this to reach the ground but will be something to
watch. Better precip chances come Thursday afternoon as the 850mb
jet slides over lower mi bringing a surge of better theta E into the
area. This in conjunction with upper level diffluence and isentropic
ascent looks to produce a broad coverage of showers across the area.

There does remain a chance of some mix precip at the lead edge if it
can get going early enough Thursday morning as dry, cool surface
layer will wet bulb, but overall think best precip chances will come
after diurnal heating commences.

Rain will taper off overnight as the system progresses eastward with
the last of the showers exiting the area Friday morning. Ridging
will build back into the region Friday for the weekend. This will
bring quiet weather and a slight warming trend back to the mid 50s.

Marine...

northerly winds will increase during the day as strong high pressure
expands across the northern great lakes. Wind gusts may reach 20
knots across the southern lake huron basin and possibly saginaw bay
where northeast winds will funnel into the bay. The high will expand
into the eastern great lakes by Wednesday. Modest northeast winds
will be sustained as a result. Low pressure is forecast to lift into
the ohio valley on Thursday before pushing into the southern great
lakes on Friday. This system combined with strong high pressure to
the north will lead to increasing east-northeast winds Thursday into
Friday, possibly resulting in the development of small craft
advisory conditions.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi59 min N 8 G 8 36°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi45 min N 9.9 G 11 36°F 1017.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi89 min N 6 G 9.9 37°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi66 minN 68.00 miOvercast39°F37°F96%1016.7 hPa
Saginaw, Saginaw County H.W. Browne Airport, MI16 mi63 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast37°F35°F93%1015.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi65 minN 410.00 miOvercast39°F36°F90%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W7W10W11W12W12SW11W10W8W8W9W7W4NW4N8N12NE8NE8NE8NE7NE6NE6N5N6
1 day agoE7E6E6NE8E8E5NE8NE104N7N5CalmNE5NE5N3NE3CalmCalmCalmS3SW5SW5SW6SW6
2 days agoNE16NE16NE15NE14NE16NE14NE12NE10NE17
G23
E9E12E12E10NE10E11E10E13E12NE10NE8NE8NE9NE10NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.