Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:25PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:14 PM EDT (16:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:59PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 958 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy then mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201904202130;;217020 FZUS53 KDTX 201358 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 958 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-202130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201553
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1153 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Update
The forecast remains on target as a cold and rainy day unfolds across
se michigan with a gusty northeast wind adding some harshness to
conditions. The exception is across the tri cities and portions of
the northern thumb where breaks of Sun provide much improvement over
points south. Clouds are expected to increase toward that area but
incoming data and observations support a halt to the westward
progression of the rain band around mid afternoon. It is expected to
become centered roughly along a line from bad axe to flint which
offers a chance of light showers brushing shiawassee and southern
saginaw counties. This was the primary check in the morning update
along with extension of the lakeshore flood advisory through the
afternoon for monroe county.

Prev discussion
Issued at 543 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
aviation...

another day of widespread borderline MVFR ifr as a closed low slowly
lifts through the ohio valley. A rather sharp edge to the cloud
shield is noted on on morning satellite imagery INVOF kmbs, and this
is likely to remain the case through the day leading to a lower
confidence ceiling forecast there. Otherwise, strengthening mid-
level convergence and developing deformation will support
increasingly organized showers lifting into the detroit area from
the southeast by late morning and reaching kfnt by early afternoon.

While vsby has been slow to respond to light rain during the predawn
hours, afternoon rain is expected to be sufficiently heavy and
persistent so as to drive vsby to ifr for several hours. Rain
departs as persistent gusty NE flow finally backs to the NW and
becomes light to variable. Light fog may develop in the detroit area
late.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft.

Prev discussion...

issued at 350 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
discussion...

southeast michigan holding position early this morning within the
expansive northern periphery of a mid level circulation centered
over the lower ohio valley. This circulation is forecast to gradually
lift northeast over the next 24 hours, reaching the central
appalachians by Sunday morning. This movement will draw the attendant
mid level deformation axis and an accompanying plume of higher
moisture westward into southeast michigan during the daylight period.

Ongoing light rainfall fixated along far eastern areas sustained via
weak isentropic ascent within the background of a backing cyclonic
flow above 850 mb. While this forcing will tend to fade through the
morning, renewed deep layer ascent tied to the inbound deformation
will work to expand the coverage of rainfall westward and into a
good portion of the forecast area late morning into the afternoon.

This will present a high likelihood for a several hour period of
rainfall generally along and southeast of a howell to flint to bad
axe line. Diminishing potential northwest of this line, with mainly
dry conditions now favored over the saginaw valley today. The cool
resident airmass contained within the prevailing low level north-
northeast gradient will again see limited diurnal temperature
recovery today, owing to the extensive cloud cover and increasing
shower potential. Warmest readings likely noted outside the expected
precipitation axis over northwest sections northwest of saginaw ,
where highs may push well into the 50s. Elsewhere, afternoon
readings will be limited primarily to the mid and upper 40s. Gusty
conditions will contribute to this raw environment, broadly reaching
25 mph at times with a localized higher response of 30 to 35 mph
expected immediately downwind of saginaw bay.

A contracting axis of deeper moisture may tend to persist well into
the evening hours as the deformation only slowly unravels upon exit
of the parent circulation. This will maintain a window for light
rain prior to midnight over a small areal footprint. Otherwise,
conditions tonight will become marked by strengthening deep layer
stability as upper heights increase above weak low level ridging.

Despite a reduction in inversion heights and a corresponding
decrease in moisture depth, narrow region of moisture still tucked
beneath the inversion favors a lingering stratus deck well into the
night. Clearing potential will increase from northwest to southeast
Sunday morning as the low level thermal trough pulls east and deep
layer drying takes a greater hold.

Dry conditions hold during the latter half of the weekend as upper
ridging takes control. Assuming any lingering early day stratus
vacates prior to midday, the high degree of insolation into an
increasing thickness field will translate into a noteworthy warming
trend Sunday. The 850-925 mb thermal layer will net roughly 6-8
degrees from that noted Saturday, yielding afternoon temperatures
well into the 60s.

Moderating trend continues into Monday, aided by developing warm air
advection within increasing southerly flow along the backside of the
departing ridge axis. The overall temperature response still carries
some uncertainty Monday, owing to the possibility that thicker high
cloud arrives in advance of an approaching mid level wave. Potential
certainly exists for highs to eclipse 70 degrees, particularly if
the area manages to witness a period of sunshine within the warm
sector. Greater potential for showers elevated thunder initially
focuses to the north and west during the daylight period, but with
increasing potential Monday night into Tuesday as the main vorticity
max and associated surface reflection cold front lift through the
great lakes.

Marine...

fresh onshore flow will occasionally gust to near-gales in saginaw
bay. Significant wave heights will hold steady at several feet
through today with maximum wave heights peaking around 10 feet
during midday. Winds and waves will diminish overnight as low
pressure departs and weak high pressure builds in for the remainder
of the weekend.

Hydrology...

scattered light rain showers will tend to increase in coverage and
intensity during late morning and early afternoon as forcing pivots
into the area from the southeast. The northwest edge of the rainfall
will likely stall in the vicinity of flint, leaving much of the
saginaw valley dry or with just very light rain. Elsewhere, an
additional quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain can be
expected with the greatest probability for higher end amounts from
the detroit area south to the ohio border. No flooding concerns
outside the typical nuisance urban flooding in prone areas during
any heavier rainfall.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz048-
049-054-055-063-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz422.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-
441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

Update... ... .Bt
aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi74 min NNE 29 G 35 40°F 1007.8 hPa (+0.3)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi34 min NNE 13 G 22 46°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N21
G26
N19
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N18
G24
N21
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G28
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G29
N20
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S14
G18
S11
G17
SW12
G20
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G20
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G18
NW19
G23
N12
G17
NW8
NW5
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N11
G16
N13
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NW6
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G20
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G22
N16
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G24
N20
G25
N20
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G28
N13
G21
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G24
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NE4
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NE2
N3
N3
NE7
G10
E10
G14
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SE19
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S18
G23
SE11
SE14
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G19
SW13
G18
SW11
G15
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G16
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G19
SW11
G14
SW10
G14
S8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi21 minNE 2310.00 miA Few Clouds and Windy49°F41°F74%1008.5 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi18 minNNE 22 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy46°F39°F76%1008.1 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi19 minN 10 G 1710.00 miFair51°F36°F58%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE17
G25
NE15NE17NE19NE13NE11NE17NE14NE15
G23
NE12NE18
G29
NE16NE15NE16NE17
G23
NE16NE17N16N13NE15N17NE22
G27
NE26
G35
NE23
1 day agoSW20
G35
SW11SW7W14W8W9W9W12W14W13NW10NW9NW8NW8N10N10N11N16NE12NE14NE17NE14
G22
N13NE14
2 days agoE11E10NE13NE11NE11E12E8NE9E10N3SE9SE9S10S13S10S14S12S9SW12S10SW10S11S11S14
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.