Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:37PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:14 AM EST (10:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 10:26AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 329 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers early in the afternoon. Numerous light snow showers late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots after midnight, then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Numerous light snow showers in the evening, then scattered light snow showers after midnight.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with scattered light snow showers until late afternoon, then mostly cloudy late in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201901241615;;840028 FZUS53 KDTX 240829 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 329 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-241615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240805
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
305 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Discussion
Dangerous and prolonged bitter cold settling into lower michigan
this weekend, with even colder potential record breaking cold
arriving on Wednesday following our strong clipper on Monday.

Upper level trough cold pool tracking through the dakotas early this
morning, moving over the western great lakes region early this
early. With lake michigan enhancement, should see good coverage
(numerous) of snow showers develop late this afternoon early this
evening as surface based capes increase to around 50 j kg, with the
bulk of the CAPE in the dgz. Inversion heights at or above 7 kft
through the evening, with NAM indicating about 2 g kg of specific
humidity in the 925-850 mb layer to work with initially, before the
drier arctic air (modified by lake michigan) lowers values closer to
1 g kg toward 12z Friday. Probably not enough wind this
afternoon evening for true snow squalls, but there is a 30 knot
core wind MAX at 850 mb translating through. Winds will be briefly
gusty (25+ mph) and seems likely most locations impacted by the snow
showers will see a quick half an inch to one inch of snow.

Colder profiles and deeper boundary layer mixing late tonight into
Friday morning actually may be better set up for snow squalls, as
arctic boundary seen dropping south from northern lower michigan,
with NAM showing pretty good 925 mb lift tracking across north half
of the CWA 9z-15z Friday. Local probabilistic guidance shows gusts
of 30+ mph in this time frame.

00z hires arw also indicating a prolonged band meandering between i-
94 to m-59 that will likely cause localized light accumulation's
through the day on Friday.

Westerly flow off lake michigan will attempt to modify the airmass,
but still expecting 850 mb temps in the -22 to -25 c range during
Friday, which should cap high temperatures mostly in the lower
teens.

Looking at a weak clipper system tracking through the ohio valley
Friday evening, and although it will be mostly a miss for us, enough
mid level fgen mid level cloud seeding slipping north of the
michigan border could be enough to enhance snow showers off of lake
michigan. Although low level flow will be trending southwest. Clouds
around Friday night expected to at least help keep low temperatures
above zero, with the exception of the far northern third of the cwa,
as NAM suggest at least partial clearing in that region. With very
light winds and dry airmass in place, favorable set up for good drop
in temps with any significant clearing.

Strong PV anomaly deep 500 mb low (482-485 dam) dropping south
through northern ontario Saturday Saturday night, with the positive
tilted trough extension moving into the western great lakes. This
will lead to southwest flow actually allowing for modest
modification of the airmass on Saturday (850 mb temps rising back
above -20 c), with warm advection mid clouds streaming in by
evening, preventing temps from cratering, as low clouds with the
southwest flow off lake michigan also persist with continued chance
of snow showers or flurries. The trough axis arriving on Sunday over
the central great lakes will send 850 mb temps back down toward -25
c by Sunday evening, and with the north-northwest flow, now
excellent chance of clearing out and temperatures dropping below
zero everywhere. Assuming solid and fresh snowpack, could even be
looking at temps in the 10 to 20 below range over the normally
colder locations as high pressure (1024+ mb) looks to be parked over
southeast michigan in the 6-12z Monday time frame. However, mid high
clouds from next storm system cloud prevent this from getting that
cold.

Strong upper wave trough ejecting out of western canada on Sunday
still looks to be deepening and swinging through the region late
Monday-Tuesday time frame. The 12z euro was the most aggressive
deepening the low, as the extreme PV anomaly height falls dropping
south from central canada catches up just in time, with the
combined merged 6 hr height fall center tracking into the eastern
great lakes. This would be the worst case scenario, as 850-700 mb
specific humidity of 3+ g kg would surge through southeast michigan,
and with the excellent thermal profiles in place, one can easily see
a snowfall accumulation of 6+ inches possible. Still a lot of moving
parts players to deal with (illustrated in the GFS ensemble
members), and timing discrepancies can mess up the possible phasing.

Sure enough, the 00z euro backed off and is slower with the height
falls merger, and now just looks like a plow-able snow (3+ inches),
in line with the 00z fv3-gfs. Still plenty of time for further
adjustments to be made.

Not totally surprising, the 00z euro also backed off on the mammoth
500 mb low over lower michigan on Wednesday, forecasting a 491 dam
center vs previous 484 dam solution. Even so, still sneaking 850 mb
temps in the negative lower 30s into southern lower michigan, which
is in record territory for jan 30th per SPC sounding climatology
page. Airmass that cold could result in MAX temperatures not getting
much past zero.

Marine
A weak area of low pressure and an arctic cold front will move
across lake huron late today into tonight. Post frontal northwest
winds will usher in this next round of arctic air. The push of cold
air will be accompanied by wind gusts up to 30 knots late tonight
into Friday morning. While the probabilities for wind gusts in the
25 to 30 knot range are high across lake huron, the chances for gale
force wind gusts will be low. With the push of arctic air, there
will however be high chances for heavy freezing spray and intense
snow squalls. Winds and waves will decrease Friday afternoon as the
gradient relaxes.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1154 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
aviation...

generally MVFR CIGS overnight into Thursday with periods of lower
vfr mixed in at times within cold NW flow. This flow will back to
w SW in advance of next surface trough which will drop into area
late in the forecast period. Scattered snow shower activity is
expected with this feature with somewhat gusty winds as well given
increased pressure gradient.

For dtw... CIGS will remain below 5kft all much of the forecast aside
for the occasional sucker hole in the stratus. NW flow will back to
sw on Thursday with scattered snow showers possible again after 00z
as surface trough works into vicinity.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 through TAF period.

* high in precip type being all snow showers Thursday evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Heavy freezing spray warning from midnight tonight to 7 pm est
Friday for lhz362-363-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi75 min W 13 G 15 25°F 1005.4 hPa (-0.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi59 min WSW 13 G 15 25°F 1006.1 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi95 min W 5.1 G 7 14°F 1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N18
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi22 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast27°F19°F75%1006.6 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi20 minW 410.00 miOvercast28°F21°F74%1005.8 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi20 minW 410.00 miOvercast27°F21°F78%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE4NE6E5SE8SE5SE4W3CalmCalmSW4W14W17--W11W13W12NW10W8W7W7W8W7W7
1 day agoS10S8S8S10SE13SE11S12
G19
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G21
S13S11S9S10S10S7S8S6S7S5S3S4S4S7S5S6
2 days agoN9NW7NW7NW7W6W5NW3CalmSW3SW5CalmCalmSW3S4S3S4SE5S5S6--S8S8S7SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.