Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 6:51PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1000 Am Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201810162115;;273293 FZUS53 KDTX 161400 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-162115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 161643
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1243 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Aviation
Strong southwest flow (15-20 kts gusts 25-30kts) this afternoon
ahead of a cold front, which will come through dry with the limited
moisture in place, and expecting mainly just mid high clouds through
early evening. Good post frontal cold advection late this
evening tonight should allow for lowVFR clouds to overspread
southeast michigan, with brief transient high MVFR cig possible,
especially if any isolated snow rain showers develop with the steep
low level lapse rates and lake michigan enhancement. West-northwest
winds behind the front, with gusts AOA 20 knots during the daytime
hours of Wednesday.

For dtw... Strong southwest winds this afternoon, gusting 25-30
knots, will lose the gustiness toward near sunset, but still
probably sustained 10-15 knots through most of the night and shifting
to the west-northwest after 9z Wednesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium to high for cig AOB 5000 feet tonight and tomorrow.

Prev discussion
Issued at 353 am edt Tue oct 16 2018
discussion...

higher amplitude troughing will continue to govern conditions
throughout the midweek period, reinforced by additional shortwave
energy digging southeast within the western flank and effectively
deepening the existing lower height anomaly. This process will pause
briefly today, as upper heights temporarily recover under a more
confluent westerly mid level flow. A corresponding increase in mean
thicknesses, augmented by a period of weak warm air advection under
strengthening low level southwest flow, will net modest warming
across the lowest 10kft. While surface temperatures will respond
accordingly with afternoon readings nudging into the lower 50s, an
increasingly gusty component to the wind will certainly contribute
negatively to the apparent temperature. Peak afternoon early evening
gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range, highest across the saginaw valley
and thumb region. Sufficient overlake instability anchored over the
southern basin of lake michigan will maintain the potential for lake
stratus to funnel downstream early today, with the southwest
gradient tending to direct any activity in the direction of the
tri-cities.

Some weak mid level cold air advection contained within the initial
height falls will promote an increase in mid cloud early tonight,
but lacks depth to suggest a more meaningful shot at precipitation
development - chances less than 20 percent. A more pronounced
southward surge of height falls driven by stout PV advection into
the base of the existing trough then commences overnight into early
Wednesday. Attendant cold frontal passage set for the early-mid
morning hours Wednesday, the ensuing advective process then
persisting well into the daylight period. Highs Wednesday firmly in
the 40s, with any diurnal recovery very limited. The closer
proximity to meaningful low level moisture and heightened mid level
cva will leave the northern thumb susceptible to light shower
development. Elsewhere, despite the existing mid level cyclonic flow
and possibility for diurnal enhancement, current model projections
maintain a rather dry boundary layer condition within prevailing
northwest flow. Should the flow turn more westerly, then prospects
could increase with the introduction of a greater lake moisture
contribution.

A diminishing gradient under building high pressure will yield a
greater radiational cooling opportunity Wednesday night. Per the
usual, cloud trends provide the greatest unknown within an otherwise
favorable setup. Maintenance of low level flow from a northwest
trajectory, as suggested by recent model guidance, would tend to
favor a clearing sky once the diurnal component fades. Outgoing
forecast maintains a low temperature Thursday morning at below
freezing most locations, with the coldest locales achieving a hard
freeze - upper 20s.

Surface ridging tucked beneath confluent mid level northwest flow
will maintain dry and stable conditions on Thursday. Assuming a high
degree of insolation, modest recovery from those cold morning
temperatures will still leave daytime highs a good 10-12 degrees
below normal - upper 40s to lower 50s. Another brief recovery in the
upper height field as shortwave ridging translates through will
provide a modest warming trend into Friday. A piece of the closed
mid level circulation currently parked over the desert southwest
will eventually shear into the mean flow, with recent guidance
pointing to late Friday into Friday night. This will bring the next
shot of rainfall. Long range model guidance pointing to another
solid push of colder air for next weekend, even suggesting this
stretch of below average temperatures could linger right into the
early part of the next week.

Marine...

northwest gales over the open waters of lake huron have settled down
to around 30 knots during the early morning. The wind will now shift
southwest and increase again into the 35 to 40 knot gale range
through today affecting mainly saginaw bay along with central and
northern lake huron. Gale warnings remain in effect through this
evening for saginaw bay and lake huron north of harbor beach. Small
craft advisories remain in effect for all other marine areas through
western lake erie.

Gales subside to gusts around 30 knots by mid evening through the
overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes in the vicinity of the
cold front moving through the central great lakes. However, wind
veers and strengthens Wednesday with northwest gales possible once
again. Given the lengthy break tonight, and some uncertainty on
timing and magnitude Wednesday, a gale watch has been issued for
central and northern lake huron for Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

High pressure then builds into the ohio valley and southern great
lakes for a short time through Thursday before the active weather
pattern resumes with another strong cold front Friday night.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz361>363-421-422-
441-462.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz442-443.

Gale watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi72 min SW 29 G 35 49°F 1014.2 hPa (-3.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi32 min SSW 24 G 32 50°F 1014.2 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi32 min SW 18 G 25 53°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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W13
G23
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W16
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G18
W8
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G29
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S10
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G14
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G14
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G11
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G11
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S9
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G10
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G8
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G10
W8
G11
W6
G10
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G12
W9
G15
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G19
W11
G19
2 days
ago
W6
G16
W11
G17
W10
G16
W8
G14
W9
G13
SW3
S3
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SW5
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G8
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SW4
S8
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G11
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G9
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G12
SW11
G16
S12
G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi19 minSW 16 G 2910.00 miFair52°F35°F53%1015.3 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi17 minSW 18 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy52°F32°F47%1014.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi17 minSW 17 G 2510.00 miFair56°F32°F40%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW19
G29
W20
G31
W21
G28
W16
G23
W13
G23
W12W10W15
G23
W12
G23
W11W10W6SW6S6S6S8S6S9S12SW15
G22
SW22
G30
SW17
G30
SW23
G33
SW16
G29
1 day agoS7S8S10SW7SW4SE4S5S8S9S8S5S8S6SW6W3SW6SW8W7W13W11NW15NW17W15
G25
W18
G24
2 days agoW12
G18
SW11SW13
G18
SW9SW7SW4SW5SW5S5SW4S4S6S5S7S6S6S7SW6SW6S7S7SW8SW11S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.