Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 9:10PM Sunday July 22, 2018 2:50 AM EDT (06:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 1:24AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 950 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning...then scattered light showers with isolated Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Scattered light showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201807220915;;851249 FZUS53 KDTX 220150 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 950 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-220915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 220348
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1148 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Aviation
Moisture advection from the east during the course of the morning
will sustain at least some coverage of showers. Subtle cooling (sub
3k ft) will pose the risk of expansion redevelopment of an MVFR
strato CU field during the morning. An upper wave now lifting across
pennsylvania is forecast to advance into the thumb region sun
afternoon. This system will help drive additional showers into the
region. A push of cooler low level air from the northern during the
afternoon will result in enough cooling in the low levels to hold a
prevailing MVFR cloud base through the day sun.

For dtw... Lingering instability over lake erie during the morning
may provide a stray thunderstorm in the vicinity. The chances of
this are very low, so no tsra mention will be warranted in the
terminal. The lack of much if any instability on Sunday will
further limit tsra potential.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight and Sunday.

* low in thunderstorms tonight and Sunday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 900 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
update...

a little better moisture influx already appears to be working into
southern ontario and the thumb region from the system now over the
delmarva. This has resulted in an enhancement in showers from
generally mt clemens north into the thumb region. Despite weak
instability with the lack of steep mid level lapse rates, there have
been a few lightning strikes within these showers. A forecast update
will be issued to increase shower coverage in this region this
evening as this moisture convergence is only going to slowly push
toward the northeast. The remainder of the forecast area (with the
exception of SW lenawee county) has remained dry this evening with a
bit of a mid level dry slot overhead. In the update, shower coverage
will be reduced a bit in this region.

Prev discussion...

issued at 252 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
discussion...

showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain prevalent into
early evening as low pressure settles southeast from southwest lower
michigan into the northern ohio valley and moisture continues to
funnel northwest into the area within broad southeasterly flow
around this cyclonic circulation. While the chance of showers (and
isolated thunder) persists into the overnight hours, coverage and
generally intensity will decrease substantially with the loss of
diurnal late day heating. With the continued influx of moist low
level air during the overnight, low temperatures will remain mild in
the mid to upper 60s.

Shower chances will have to be increased to some degree on Sunday as
secondary low pressure wraps back west northwest towards the region
from the DELMARVA to near lake huron as the circulation of the
current low pressure center settles southeast of the ohio river.

Model solutions remain widely divergent as to the exact amount of
moisture that will make it back this far west, but scattered shower
with isolated thunder seems a pretty good bet, particularly over the
northern half of the forecast area where lift forcing from this
system will be strongest. Will also decrease temperatures given the
expectation of more overcast conditions.

Isolated showers will be possible again on Monday as this second low
stalls and dissipates in the vicinity. Temperatures will remain very
pleasant for late july given the mostly cloudy skies that should
remain in place with this system. Highs will range in the upper 70s
to lower 80s across the forecast area.

The extended forecast still remains in low confidence in chance of
precipitation terms. Weak ridging still looks to hang around,
however a trough axis is also forecasted to be close by. The area
is forecasted to stay mostly dry through the week, with only some
slight chances for showers. Tuesday through Thursday are expected
to be the warmest as highs warm up into the mid to upper 80s.

Marine...

broad low pressure will drift southeastward into the northern ohio
river valley from tonight into Sunday. Unsettled conditions will
continue into tonight across most of the local waters with periodic
showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, coverage will decrease
with the loss of daytime heating. A second low pressure system will
track back northwest to near lake huron on Sunday, renewing the
chance of showers
meanwhile, will cancel small craft advisories for the lake huron
nearshore waters with the afternoon update as gusts have dropped to
20 knots or less and waves remain below advisory criterion. There is
a chance that wind gusts and waves will warrant a small craft
advisory over western lake erie on Sunday. However, the forecast
remains just shy so will forgo an advisory at this time, especially
given the short duration of even marginal advisory conditions.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
update... ... .Sc
discussion... Dg sp
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi51 min ENE 15 G 19 71°F 1009.8 hPa (-0.4)
45163 26 mi31 min ENE 16 G 18 73°F 73°F2 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi50 min NE 17 72°F 1011.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi71 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 68°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi58 minENE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F68°F96%1010 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi76 minENE 610.00 miOvercast68°F64°F88%1010.2 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi56 minNE 510.00 miOvercast69°F67°F96%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6E7E7E6E8E9E7E10E8E8E11E10E6E10SE9E11
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1 day agoSE8SE7SE5SE6E9SE8SE10SE9S8SE11S8SE12SE12SE15
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2 days agoW3SW4S5S3SE3S4S7S5SW5SW9SW8S8S8S8S10S7S8S6SE5SE6SE9SE9SE8SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.