Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:10AMSunset 5:39PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 12:07 AM EST (05:07 UTC) Moonrise 8:31AMMoonset 6:23PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing north 15 to 25 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots backing west after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet late in the day. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ848 Expires:201801161015;;514450 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 170431
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1131 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 318 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
the latest outbreak of cold and snowy weather will come to an end
Wednesday as a warm front pushes through the area thanks to a
storm tracking east in central canada. Then a rather large pacific
storm, will move into the western united states later tomorrow and
that will slowly track across the western and central united
states into the weekend. That will keep southwest michigan in
seasonably mild january temperatures with little threat for
precipitation. Finally late in the weekend or early next week a
storm from the southern plains, that came from that aforementioned
pacific storm will bring a fair amount of wind, rain and warmer
temperatures in the Monday time frame. The cold air and snow
return beyond that.

Update
Issued at 1052 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
lake effect snow continues over lake michigan at 1045pm in an
environment with backing flow. The northerly bands of earlier this
evening are becoming more under the influence of a northwest wind
now and as we head through the night, a west wind. The backing
flow will bring shear to the lake effect equation and result in a
weakening trend. Have continued the high pops in the western cwa
for at least the next 3 to 6 hours, but after that a considerable
weakening trend should be noted. Not expecting much in the way of
additional accumulation. An inch or less towards the lake
michigan shore, with maybe a dusting toward the highway 131
corridor. Temperatures will be a tough call tonight with variable
cloud cover. Lows inland will occur in the next few hours before
clouds push inland late providing some insolation. Lows should
range from 15 above towards lake michigan to near 5 above inland.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 318 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
the primary issue with this forecast is when does the lake
enhanced snowfall end? Beyond that there will be a slow warm up
but tempeatures are not expected to get above freezing till
Friday.

As far as the lake enhanced snow showers are concerned, as long as
we remain in the upper trough, the snow showers will continue. The
upper trough and the assoicated polar jet that marks the back
edge of the cold air aloft, comes though this area around sunrise
Wednesday. So, I expect the snow showers will continue overnight.

Actually though the snow showers that are going on over central
lower michigan should come to a end. What I am watching is the
lake enhanced snow band over western and central lake michigan
currently. That will come on shore this evening and move across
the CWA early to mid morning Wednesday. Only the lake shore should
see any measurable snow from that feature and even then it should
for the most part be near or less than an inch.

Once the polar jet gets east of hear we will have some shallow
cold air around through Thursday but it will not be deep enough
for precipitation. A system passing north of this area may bring a
touch of freezing rain to the route 10 area Thursday evening.

Otherwise expect a slow warm up each day for Wednesday and
Thursday.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 318 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
we are looking at moderating temperatures for much of the period
into Monday, before we cool off back to average or slightly below
average temperatures. Precipitation chances will be limited
initially, and will peak late Sun into Mon with the transition.

We will be inbetween systems Fri and likely through most of, if not
all of sat. The NRN branch of the upper jet will be far enough north
of the area that any effects from NRN waves should stay north also.

A nice SW flow in the lower levels will help to facilitate the
advection of warmer air into the area.

Pcpn chances will begin to increase then by Sun for the area. We
will see a strong upper trough low kick into the plains, and help to
strengthen a sfc low across the central plains. This will tap more
moisture from the gulf, and develop pcpn as the forcing interacts
with the moisture. We can not rule out a mix of p-types at the onset
as there is a canadian high to our north trying to bring in
colder drier air. Any mix in pcpn should be short-lived once the
developing system takes over control.

The best chance of rain will come Sun night into Mon as the warm
sector pushes in, and the low approaches the area. As we get into
the warm sector, 40s look likely, with 50 degrees not out of the
question. Needless to say, this will melt much of the snow in place
with higher dew points expected and rainfall to accompany the warm
air and wind. Lake effect and temperatures closer to average can be
expected to move back in Mon night tue.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1100 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
primarilyVFR conditions will continue at most of the terminals
through Wednesday evening. An exception to this is at kmkg where
light snow showers and flurries may cause brief reductions to MVFR
overnight. However even thereVFR should prevail overnight. Southwest
winds will ramp up considerably at all the terminals Wednesday morning
and frequently gust to 20-30 kts through Wednesday evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 1230 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
the ice jam continues along the muskegon river in mecosta county.

Latest information from emergency management is that little rise has
been noted since impacts from the jam were reported Monday evening.

Little or no additional impacts have been reported. Previously
open waters have since frozen with ice chunks that have built in
on the back side of the jam, but seem to be stable. Given the
little noticeable changes, we could be seeing the peak, but it
does not rule out ice movement and further fluctuation. Residents
should continue to monitor levels and pay close attention to
latest updates that are provided.

Sites elsewhere are showing some affects as a result of river ice,
but seem to be stable. Minor fluctuations have been noted with
overall downward trends on rivers at or near bankfull. Only one
advisory remains in effect, but is likely to be dropped sometime
late this evening or overnight.

Colder temperatures will allow ice to continue to build over the
next couple of days. There is concern in the upcoming weekend and
into early next week as temperatures rise and precipitation
chances increase. We could see a repeat of last week with melting
snow and rainfall. In addition to weakening ice, runoff could
cause rivers to rise and lead to additional ice jams.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Duke
synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Njj
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... Jam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi49 min ESE 4.1 G 6 17°F 12°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi87 min SE 5.1 G 8 16°F 1031.5 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi37 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 17°F 1034.4 hPa6°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi87 min SSE 7 G 11 16°F 1031.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi72 minN 05.00 miLight Snow16°F13°F92%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE7NE6NE5N9N6N11
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1 day agoSE13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmSE3S7SE6SE6SE5S6S8SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.