Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 8:11PM Thursday March 30, 2017 4:27 PM EDT (20:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 10:26PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 302 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Light showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201703310315;;325431 FZUS53 KGRR 301902 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 302 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ848-310315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 301924
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
325 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
latest update...

synopsis/short term/long term/marine

Synopsis
Issued at 325 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
showers will continue tonight through most of Friday and a few
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight mainly
south of i-96. High pressure will bring fair weather Friday night
through Saturday night before the next low pressure system brings
more showers Sunday through Monday.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 325 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
a low pressure system moving through the lower great lakes region
will continue to bring showers tonight through Friday. There are
still isolated reports of light snow and flurries over our far
northeast fcst area but pcpn type there will change to plain rain
showers as suggested by low level critical thickness tools and
model fcst soundings.

Both 12z NAM and GFS guidance indicate that elevated instability
will develop over our southern fcst area this evening as h8 li/s
fall to around -1 to -2. Therefore there is potential for a few
thunderstorms to develop late this aftn/eve near to mainly south
of i-96. However most of the convection will stay well south of
our fcst area across in/oh and further south where much stronger
instability will be present.

A ridge of high pressure will build in from the northwest Friday
night through Saturday and bring fair wx with seasonable
temperatures.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 325 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
it seems to this forecaster that an upper level weather pattern
change may be in our near future. By the middle of this coming week
we may see a break in the extended east asian jet feature. If that
does happen we may yet see the northern and southern streams
synchronize with each other just in time for our system on Thursday.

That would suggest the chance that our Thursday storm could end up
bringing measurable snow across the area (nothing big but enough to
get the ground white for a few hours). Also there seems to be a
break in the persistent east asian jet feature by the middle of next
week, that could help the cause of a pattern change that would
result in a more persistent eastern upper trough. This would mean
cooler but drier weather if that pattern where to take hold.

Meanwhile the split flow continues as does the active pacific wave
train feeding storms into the western CONUS that in turn leads to a
a closed upper low over the SW CONUS that gets kicked out by the
next upstream system (henry rule). The next storm to reach us is
will likely be a closed upper low over the SW CONUS by tomorrow
morning. The storm to kick it out will be a 965mb low in the gulf of
alaska tomorrow morning. That will then track SW CONUS system east
across the southern plains during the weekend. The question is will
there be enough phasing with the northern stream to bring that
system into michigan for later Sunday into Tuesday. The significant
precipitation from this system would likely be Monday. Any
precipitation from this system on Sunday or Tuesday would be
minimal. The ensemble mean of the GFS says yes, the operational is
leaning that way too. The ECMWF says no, it will stay south as does
the canadian. Still the storm today got farther north than many of
the models forecast a week ago. At this point it is too questionable
to increase pops Monday so I am letting what we have ride for now.

The next system, the one on Thursday still looks good and the latest
run of the GFS is better at bringing in enough cold air behind the
system to change the rain to snow later Thursday, the ECMWF and the
canadian lean that way too.

Beyond this storm we seem to get northern stream systems (pattern
change I wrote about in the first paragraph), we shall see how this
all works out but I still say no really warm weather (highs in he
70s and 80s for several days like in 2012) for at least 3 weeks

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 152 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
little question ifr conditions will prevail at all of the taf
sites by late afternoon through the night as the surface low
tracks just south of south bend indiana. That will result in
somewhat lighter winds and allow for lower ceiling and some fog.

As for the showers and possible thunderstorms, an area of elevated
installed does move north into the southern 1/2 of the state this
afternoon. So I continued the vcts. The greatest risk for that
would be in the i-69 area after 21z, till around 03z.

Marine
Issued at 325 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
the small craft advisory remains in effect through tonight into
Friday. Brisk east to northeast winds to 25 to 30 kts will
gradually back to the northeast tonight and north Friday. Wave
heights will diminish to below SCA criteria north of holland
Friday but will remain up around 3 to 5 feet near to south of
holland through Friday evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 1200 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
widespread rainfall amounts over half-an-inch have been observed
through mid-morning with the highest reported totals at just over
one inch. The heaviest rainfall has been focused in a swath between
i-96 and i-94. Amounts quickly taper off from south to north, from
grand rapids through central lower michigan.

Additional convection is expected to materialize over illinois and
indiana this afternoon. Another wave of rainfall will move
through later today, possibly including additional heavy rain.

Some guidance leans toward some locations receiving around two
inches of rainfall when all is wrapped up late Friday.

Rivers are beginning to rise with some rising rapidly. Current
forecasts have a few sites (eagle, comstock park, holt and
vicksburg) rising near flood stage within the next several days.

Rainfall totals this week will weigh heavily into next week's
sensitivity to streams and rivers. Given the moist ground, recent
heavy rainfall and no end in sight for the active pattern,
flooding issues could become more numerous. Those along/near
streams and rivers are encouraged to keep up-to-date with the
latest river forecasts.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for lmz848-849.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for lmz844>847.

Synopsis... Laurens
short term... Laurens
long term... Wdm
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Jam
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi40 min E 14 G 23 41°F 36°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi28 min ENE 14 G 24 41°F 1009.8 hPa (-3.1)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi28 min E 17 G 20 39°F 1007.2 hPa (-4.3)37°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi48 min ENE 17 G 25 41°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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N5
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G14
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N6
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NE2
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G6
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G7
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NW4
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G7
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N6
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NE3
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N2
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G7
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NE5
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NE5
G11
NE4
G8
E4
N2
G6
NW8
NW6
G11
NW8
G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi33 minE 14 G 2610.00 miOvercast40°F37°F90%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE6NE4N5E6SE9E10E10E10
G14
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G16
E12E10E8E12
G17
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G21
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G18
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G24
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G26
1 day agoN8N7N11N8N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE6N7N3N6N5N5
2 days agoNW7NW7N8N5N3N3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3N3N3NE3NE4NE6NE5NE5NE4CalmNW10
G14
N10N11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.