Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:30PM Thursday June 22, 2017 4:30 PM EDT (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:00AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 311 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering west toward daybreak. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. A slight chance of showers until midday. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201706230315;;650777 FZUS53 KGRR 221911 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-230315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kgrr 221904
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
300 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 300 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017
a cold front will continue to advance southeastward through the
great lakes region and result in development of showers and
thunderstorms across lower michigan tonight. A few showers and
thunderstorms will linger into Friday morning. A much cooler
airmass will move in for this weekend into early next week.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 300 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017
primary short term concerns involve determining convective svr wx
potential tonight.

At 18z the sfc wx map shows the cold front extends from near kmqt
southwestward across northwestern wi to near kmsp. The cold front
will continue to advance southeastward and result in convective
development across our fcst area tonight. Before that occurs an area
of mainly light rain showers over central lake mi will continue to
advance eastward into our NW NRN fcst area during the next couple of
hours.

Isolated convection may develop very late this aftn early this
evening. However there really is not much of a forcing mechanism for
convective initation to occur until around mid to late evening
through the overnight period along and out ahead of the cold front.

Some strong to potentially severe storms are possible from mid
evening through the overnight period as a result of forcing from the
front LLJ and deep moisture and strong deep layer shear on the order
of 40-55 kts. We expect a line of strong to potentially severe
storms to move into our far NW fcst area by around 01z-02z as
suggested by latest 3km NAM high res sim z guidance. The line will
gradually advance to the southeast across most of our fcst area
overnight.

Although a few storms may become severe there are several factors
going against severe potential including unfavorable cold frontal
timing and lack of stronger instability. Upper level
forcing dynamics are also unfavorable as strong PVA does not move
in until tomorrow after FROPA has already occurred.

Some heavy rainfall is likely tonight with ample low level
moisture in place out ahead of the cold front with precipitable
water values tonight in the 1.75 to 2 inch range along with
vigorous 1000-850 mb moisture transport. A consensus of short
range guidance QPF amounts and our fcst rainfall amounts are not
sufficient enough to warrant an areal flood watch headline.

However some localized flooding is certainly possible in areas
that receive the most rainfall.

Showers and a few storms will linger Friday morning especially
over our southeastern fcst area before a cooler and drier airmass
begins to advect in after fropa. A few instability showers are
anticipated Saturday as a result of daytime heating and with the
pool of cooler air aloft under the upper trough axis. Several
upper disturbances rotating around the base of the trough axis
will enhance the potential for a few showers from time to time.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 300 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017
Sunday and Monday will see cooler than normal weather with diurnal
enhancement of showers and a few thunderstorms as upper level
troughing brings steep lapse rates. No severe weather is expected
although the storms could bring small hail, especially on Monday
afternoon as freezing levels are unusually low.

The trough axis moves east by Tuesday with shortwave ridging
returning Wednesday and Thursday along with temperatures warming to
near normal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 223 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017
vfr conditions expected into this evening before showers and
thunderstorms arrive after 00z with areas of MVFR and even isolated
ifr possible in heavier downpours. The rain should diminish by 12z
but some ceilings in the 1500 to 2500 foot range could persist
into morning before clearing out later in the morning.

Winds will be southwest 10 to 15 knots into the evening with gusts
over 20 knots then go northwest by 12z around 10 knots.

Marine
Issued at 300 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017
thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners tonight with wave
heights in the two to four foot range. Wave heights will remain
below small craft criteria Friday.

Hydrology
Issued at 300 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017
locally heavy rainfall and perhaps minor areal flooding appears
possible Thursday evening overnight. Pw values will rise over 1.75
inches this evening as sharply higher-dewpoint air at 850 mb is
advected from the south. These pw values are in the range of
daily records for june in the dtx-area sounding climatology. Higher
moisture content in the column of atmosphere will favor more
efficient rain production. With a tendency for storms to repeat over
parts of the area tonight, it seems reasonable that some locations
could receive over 2 inches of rainfall within a few hours. The most
favored area for significant rain totals Thursday night appears to
be north of i-96.

The tendency for flooding to develop will depend on local antecedent
conditions. While may and early june were rather dry, last week's
rainfall ranged from 1.5 to locally over 5 inches in areas north of
south haven, hastings, and lansing. In addition, areas along and
north of m-20 saw between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain Thursday
morning. Places that saw heavy rain last week will be more prone
to having at least minor areal or street flooding. As for rivers,
the the flat near smyrna and the maple near maple rapids are running
high after last week's rain, and will be less tolerant of any
additional heavy rain that falls within their basins. Above bankfull
rises are possible, so people with interests along those rivers
should monitor the situation.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Laurens
short term... Laurens
long term... Ostuno
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Cas
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi43 min SSW 6 G 13 71°F 64°F
45024 22 mi21 min S 12 G 16 65°F 62°F3 ft1009.9 hPa63°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi51 min S 15 G 19 66°F 1009.1 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi31 min WSW 7 G 8.9 71°F 1009 hPa (+0.0)66°F
45161 34 mi31 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 67°F2 ft1009.6 hPa (-0.2)
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi51 min S 11 G 15 73°F 1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last
24hr
SW6
G12
SW8
G12
SW4
G8
SW5
G9
SW8
G12
S2
E3
E3
E4
E5
SE4
G8
NE4
G8
S4
G9
S4
G7
S7
G11
S12
G17
S13
G19
SW11
S12
G17
SW4
G10
SW5
G10
S7
G13
S9
G16
S6
G13
1 day
ago
W5
G11
SW4
G10
SW6
G9
SW6
G9
SW3
G6
SW2
SW2
SW3
G6
SW3
G7
E2
S3
E2
E2
E4
E3
E1
SW3
SW2
SW2
G6
SW3
G8
SW3
SW2
G5
SW4
G10
SW3
G11
2 days
ago
SW8
G12
SW7
G12
W5
G9
W5
G9
NW4
G7
W6
NW5
G8
NW4
G8
NW5
G8
NW5
G10
NW6
G10
NW5
G9
W7
G10
W7
G13
W6
G9
W11
G15
W10
G17
W9
G13
W8
G11
W9
G12
W11
G18
SW5
G10
SW3
G10
W9
G13

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi36 minSSW 13 G 1710.00 miLight Rain72°F66°F85%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrSW9S7SW5SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4SE7NW7SE5SE3S13
G23
SW10
G15
SW10
G18
SW10SW10
G16
SW11
G15
S15
G22
SW9
G19
SW9
G15
SW9
G14
1 day agoW9SW7SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W5W6SW9SW8SW9SW9
2 days agoSW7SW9W5NW6CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW5NW4NW7W7W4W4W10W6W8W4W6W9
G16
SW10
G16
SW4W8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.