Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Forge, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:30PM Monday November 20, 2017 10:41 AM EST (15:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:41AMMoonset 7:22PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 654 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy.
Tonight..Southwest winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain and snow showers likely overnight.
Wednesday..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers Thursday night.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Forge, NY
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location: 43.68, -74.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201415
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
915 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
Brisk conditions today with below normal temperatures and
continued lake effect snow. The lake effect snows will shift
northward to the western and southern adirondacks this morning.

Otherwise isolated to scattered showers are expected elsewhere
much of the day. Lingering snow showers will taper off this
evening. Looking at fair and milder weather for Tuesday as
temperatures warm to above normal ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 915 am est... Issued a winter weather advisory for lake
effect snow for northern herkimer and western hamilton counties
today into this evening.

Latest hi-res guidance and radar trends indicate with backing
flow today, there will be multiple lake effect snow bands that
will migrate northward across the advisory area, with the
potential for 3-6 inches within the most persistent bands.

Multiple surges of moderate to briefly heavy snow bands will
lead to accumulating snow in this area.

Otherwise, eastward extent of lake effect plume this morning
still resulting in scattered snow showers across the mohawk
valley, capital district, taconics and even some narrow bands
into parts of eastern greene and columbia counties. Have updated
pop wx snow grids to account for this activity this morning.

Snow showers are expected to lift northward out of the mohawk
valley to capital district corridor by early this afternoon as
the low level flow backs to more of a westerly trajectory.

As the upper trough exits and another short wave passes over
the region will have the threat for isolated to scattered snow
showers across much of the local area along with upslope snows
into the southern green, taconics and berkshires.

Below normal temperatures with highs in the upper 20s to lower
40s. Westerly winds will remain brisk as region is squeezed
between the departing system and advancing ridge. Gusts of 25
to 35 mph are expected.

Please refer to the our public information statement for
snowfall reports. We received our first measurable snow of the
season at the NWS office with a half of an inch occurring around
midnight.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Lake effect will shift farther to the north and will diminish
this evening as ridging builds in at the surface and aloft.

Skies will clear however with winds shifting to the south
expecting seasonable lows mainly in the 20s. Temperatures are
expected to start to begin to rise before sunrise.

Short waves rotating about a large upper low over hudson's bay
will bring a quick moving system across the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Temperatures will warm to above normal
levels on Tuesday as ridging shifts eastward and a deep
southwesterly flow develops again of the approaching cold front.

Highs are expected to top out around 10 degrees above normal in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

The cold front sweeps across the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as the main low passes well to our north. In
meantime, an area of low pressure associated with southern
stream energy is forecast to develop along the southeast coast
and track northeastward passing well southeast of long island.

The combination of these features will bring some rain and snow
showers to the area. The bulk of the precipitation associated
with the coastal low is expected to remain to our east. Qpf
amounts are expected to be light with less than a quarter of
inch.

A seasonable airmass will be ushered back into the region for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The threat for showers is expected
to come to end by Wednesday afternoon with fair weather for
Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the west at the
surface.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Medium-range deterministic models and GEFS members in generally good
agreement on the large-scale pattern from thanksgiving day through
the weekend. The pattern remains very progressive with the mean
hudson bay upper low remaining dominant and disturbances pinwheeling
around it. A tranquil and cool thanksgiving day is expected as an
expansive surface high covering much of the southern and central us
noses into the northeast. At night, a weakening cold front will
track into northern portions of the forecast area. Best forcing will
remain well to the north, but a few sct snow showers are possible
across the adirondacks along the front and with a weak lake
contribution. The front washes out and southerly flow commences
Friday Friday night in response to a low pressure system crossing
southern canada. Could see temps rising in some spots Friday night.

The system's cold front crosses most of the region Saturday. This
front will be augmented by midlevel forcing as we transition back to
deep upper troughing, so chance to likely pops are in the forecast
with highest potential across northern zones. Based on the track of
the low, p-type of rain is favored for most locations, mixing with
snow over the adirondacks greens. Another chilly airmass then behind
the front for Sunday Monday. GEFS mean h850 temps average around -
9c, but latest ECMWF gfs drop these values down into the negative
teens. Lake effect snow should get cranking again across favored
areas Saturday night into Sunday.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions will prevail through the TAF period. However,
there are some lake effect snow showers to contend with this
morning. Activity is rather weak and disorganized ATTM over
kpsf and just south of kalb. Brief visibility reduction cannot
be ruled out at those terminals through mid-morning. Included
vcsh wording but will amend if it appears a heavier snow shower
will reduce visibility. The activity will tend to shift
northward north of kalb kpsf and toward kgfl later in the
morning into the early afternoon.

This morning into the afternoon, westerly winds will become
gusty once again to 20-30 kt. Winds will diminish to 5-10 kt
this evening, backing to the southwest, becoming southerly at 5
kt or less overnight. Possibly could have some low-level wind
shear issues late tonight but confidence not high enough to
include in the tafs attm.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thanksgiving day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
Brisk conditions today with below normal temperatures and
continued lake effect snow. The focus for the lake effect will
shift from the western mohawk and schoharie valleys northward to
the western and southern adirondacks this morning. Otherwise
isolated to scattered showers are expected elsewhere much of the
day. Lingering snow showers will taper off this evening.

Looking at fair and milder weather for Tuesday as temperatures
warm to above normal ahead of an approaching cold front.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected this week. Lake effect
snows will shift from the western mohawk and schoharie valleys
northward to the western and southern adirondacks this morning.

Otherwise isolated to scattered showers are expected today with
lingering snow showers tapering off this evening. Fair and
milder weather for Tuesday with some rain and snow showers
expected late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as a cold
front crosses the region and an area of low pressure passes well
south and east of long island. QPF amounts are expected to be
light with less than a quarter of an inch. Fair weather returns
for thanksgiving with unsettled weather expected the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for nyz032-
033.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa
near term... Iaa jpv
short term... Iaa
long term... Thompson
aviation... Thompson
fire weather... Iaa
hydrology... Iaa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 82 mi42 min 22°F 1013 hPa (+0.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 97 mi42 min WSW 19 G 28 34°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.6)25°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY48 mi49 minSSE 38.00 miLight Snow26°F24°F92%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW16W17W11
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W14W15W9NW5N4CalmCalmCalmE5SE4S3E4E7E9SE6E7SE7SE8E7E9E9

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 12:30 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:39 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:25 PM EST     5.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-012.33.344.343.12.31.71.10.40.21.22.744.95.45.34.53.42.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:56 AM EST     4.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:29 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:17 PM EST     5.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.112.33.23.94.13.72.821.50.80.10.11.22.744.85.35.14.23.12.11.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.