Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Forge, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:22PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:37 PM EDT (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 953 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
This afternoon..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Friday night.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Forge, NY
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location: 43.68, -74.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 222011
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
411 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
Clouds will increase tonight with some showers possible late as
a low pressure system approaches from the great lakes region. A
frontal system associated with this low will bring humid
conditions for Thursday along with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

Seasonable temperatures and breezy conditions will return for
Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system approaching
from the west could bring some showers by late Saturday
afternoon.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 4 pm edt, a mix of Sun and patchy high clouds continue
across the region, with thicker high mid level clouds lurking
upstream across western ny and southern ontario. Temps have
warmed to 65-70 within most valley areas, and 60-65 across
higher elevations.

There were some sprinkles falling from the mid level clouds
across portions of extreme western nys. As these clouds track
east and south, the leading edge may initially erode upon
reaching our region at times early this evening. However, as mid
level isentropic lift increases, the clouds should thicken from
nw to SE later this evening, with some light showers sprinkles
possible reaching the SW adirondacks and western mohawk valley
toward midnight.

The best isentropic lift appears to be across the sw
adirondacks mohawk valley region overnight, and even stronger
across central and western nys. Areas and or bands of showers
should develop and track across these regions after midnight,
before settling south and east into the eastern catskills.

Capital region and mid hudson valley closer to daybreak.

Portions of southern vt and NW ma may tend to remain dry much of
the night as the bulk of moisture and forcing may be held to
the south and west.

A few rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out closer to
daybreak across the SE catskills and mid hudson valley, where
some weak elevated instability and steeper mid level lapse rates
will graze.

Temps may initially drop into the 40s to lower 50s across
portions of the southern adirondacks and southern vt before
midnight, before rising slightly after midnight. Elsewhere, lows
should be mainly in the lower mid 50s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Morning showers across southern areas should depart by mid
morning, with a relative lull in precipitation until early
afternoon. However, models suggest quite a bit of mid level
clouds persisting in most areas during this time, limiting
heating, and also dewpoints are forecast to only slowly rise
into through the 50s.

By afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across western central nys, closer to greater mid level height
falls and low level forcing ahead of an approaching
cold occluded front. Mid level wind fields are expected to
increase dramatically Thursday afternoon, with h700-h500 winds
reaching 50-60 kt or slightly higher by late afternoon. So,
kinematics will be very strong, but it remains questionable
whether enough thermodynamics will be present to create
sufficient updrafts to work in tandem with the strong deep
layered shear and allow for any discrete storms to become
supercellular. It appears that instability will remain weak,
with mu capes likely only reaching several hundred j kg across
the western mohawk valley SW adirondacks, and less farther south
and east. The weaker instability may not be enough to overcome
the strong mid level wind fields, and could result in highly
tilted updrafts with any discrete cells that can form.

Showers and some thunderstorms will likely move into the region
from the west during the mid to late afternoon, some of which
could contain strong wind gusts if they become tall enough
and or organize into a line. The best chances for this may be if
discrete cells upstream of our region form into a qlcs, which
could then propagate into the mohawk valley SW adirondack region
and possibly points immediately south and east, potentially
mixing down strong winds from aloft due to momentum transfer.

Again, this is a possibility, but not certain, but should this
mode develop, then a better chance for damaging wind gusts would
occur across the mohawk valley SW adirondack region and perhaps
as far S E as the greater capital region of ny and into southern
vt. As for any discrete cells, this potential, albeit small,
would mainly be areas west of the hudson river across the se
catskills and perhaps western mid hudson valley region. SPC has
trimmed the slight risk area westward from earlier issuances
(now only covering extreme western mohawk valley and sw
adirondacks) with marginal risk also trimmed back farther west,
extending to just east of the hudson river.

High temperatures Thursday may reach the lower mid 70s in some
valley areas, especially across the mohawk valley, schoharie
valley and capital region, with mainly 60s to around 70
elsewhere. Gusty south winds will also develop later in the day,
with some gusts possibly reaching 25-35 mph in some north south
valleys including portions of the capital region.

For Thursday night, showers and scattered thunderstorms may
linger into the evening hours, before ending from west to east
before midnight. Breezy and cooler conditions will then filter
into the region behind an occluded front, with some spotty
showers sprinkles possible across the southern adirondacks and
southern vt. Lows mainly in the 50s, with some 40s possible
across higher terrain of the southern adirondacks. Strong
west northwest winds may reach 25-35 mph later at night behind
the front, especially within the mohawk valley capital region
and berkshires.

Friday-Friday night, breezy and cool for Friday, with clouds and
some showers sprinkles possible across northern areas due to the
passage of main upper level trough cold pool. Better chances for
clearing will be across southern areas. Highs mainly in the 60s,
although some lower 70s could occur late in the day in some
valley areas, while some higher elevations across the
adirondacks and southern vt remain in the 50s. Gusty
west northwest winds may reach 25-35 mph. Clearing for Friday
night, and cool with lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. Some
30s could occur across the SW adirondacks and eastern catskills
if skies remain clear long enough.

Saturday, the next fast moving frontal system will approach from
the great lakes region later in the day or at night. Expect
increasing clouds during Saturday, with chances for showers
increasing in the afternoon. Some thunder could also occur,
although initial instability parameters look fairly limited
through sunset. Highs mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s,
although could be warmer if more sunshine occurs through the
morning hours.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The extended forecast period begins unsettled for the middle portion
of the memorial day holiday weekend, but high pressure looks to
build in late Sunday pm into Monday. If the ridge holds on, then
fair weather may continue into early Tuesday before unsettled
weather returns for the mid-week.

Saturday night into Sunday... A prefrontal sfc trough and a cold
front will bring an increase of showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area Saturday night. The better instability
looks to be from the capital region north and west early in the
evening. A slight to low chance of thunderstorms was kept in
until midnight. The higher pops were maintained from roughly the
capital region north and west. Lows Sat night will be on the
mild side with 50s to around 60f. The latest medium range
guidance has the cold front moving through the forecast area in
the late morning into the early pm. We kept a slight chance of
showers with perhaps a thunderstorm over the higher terrain in
the pm especially over the southern greens and southern
adirondacks. Overall, we will favor a clearing trend for the
afternoon and lean towards the latest 12z ECMWF and wpc
guidance. Highs will be close to normal with mid 70s to around
80f in the lower elevations, and mid 60s to mid 70s over the
hills and mtns.

Sunday night into Monday... High pressure builds in from the
southeast ontario and the central and eastern great lakes region
with west to northwest flow aloft. A cool and pleasant night is
expected with lows in the upper 40 to upper 50s. The weak sfc high
settles over ny and new england by memorial day. H850 temps will be
near normal based on the latest GEFS guidance, and will be in the
+13c to +15c range with highs in the mid and upper 70s over the
valley locations, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain.

A weak warm front starts to move towards the region late in the day
ahead of a quick moving short-wave trough. The latest 12z ec keeps
the sfc ridge in control, while the latest GFS has a few showers
over the southern adirondacks. We placed a slight chance of showers
from the hudson river valley eastward for the afternoon, and a very
low chance to west. This short-wave does not have a lot of low-
level moisture to work with, so an increase of clouds may be all
that occurs during the day.

Monday night into Tuesday... A weak sfc anticyclone may settles back
in across the region in the wake of the short-wave trough and weak
cold front late Mon night. A low chance of showers was kept in the
forecast early in the evening. The question will be how quickly a
warm front and strong low pressure system approaches from the upper
midwest and great lakes region. The 12z GFS is more aggressive than
the latest 12z ecmwf, with some spread in the ensemble guidance
brining showers back into the region by Tue pm. Low confidence
forecast here with the better chance of showers from the capital
region north and east. Lows Monday night will be in the 40s north
and west of albany, and upper 40s to lower 50s south and east. Highs
Tuesday will depend on the amount of sunshine and placement of the
warm front. We did not stray too far from the superblend with 60s
to lower 70s over most the region.

Tuesday night into Wednesday... A strong subtropical ridge attempts
to build in centered over the gulf of mexico and florida. Mid and
upper level heights try to increase over ny and new england. If the
warm front lifts through the entire area quickly, then we could be
in a warm and more humid air mass that the latest 12z ecmwf
mos mexmos, as well as the 12z GEFS 850 hpa temps +1 to +2 std devs
above normal are indicating. We kept a slight or low chance of
showers in across the region with the highest pops over the northern
most zones. We went a little higher than the superblend with upper
70s to around 80f in many of the valley areas, and mid upper 60s to
lower mid 70s over the higher terrain. Sfc dewpts increase into
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr conditions for the balance of the afternoon into the evening
hours as high and mid level clouds increase and thicken. Eventually,
these clouds will lower further to MVFR thresholds tonight with the
threat of showers. At this time, seems the best potential for
showers will be south of kgfl-kalb where we will place vcsh. Prob30
for kpou-kpsf where showers might be a bit more concentrated.

Winds will generally be northerly around 10kts or less. Winds
subside to light and variable this evening. Then overnight and
toward sunrise, southerly winds with an increase of 10-18 kts
expected.

Outlook...

Thursday night: high operational impact. Breezy likely shra... Tsra.

Friday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Breezy likely shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Memorial day: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
Wind gusts of 25-35 mph possible Thursday...

clouds will increase tonight with some showers possible late as
a low pressure system approaches from the great lakes region. A
frontal system associated with this low will bring humid
conditions for Thursday along with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

Seasonable temperatures and breezy conditions will return for
Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system approaching
from the west could bring some showers by late Saturday
afternoon.

Rh values will climb to 70-90 percent tonight, then fall to
55-65 percent Thursday afternoon.

Winds will become light variable after sunset, then become south
to southwest and increase to 10-20 mph by Thursday afternoon,
with some gusts of 25-35 mph possible.

Spotty showers will develop after midnight, with a better chance
for showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening as a frontal system moves across.

Hydrology
Some showers will develop late tonight, with showers and
scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening
as a frontal system moves across. Total rainfall amounts for
late tonight through Thursday night are expected to range from
one quarter to one half inch for most areas, except up to three
quarters of an inch across portions of the mohawk valley and
southwest adirondacks. Rainfall amounts may remain under one
quarter of an inch across portions of the mid hudson valley and
nw ct.

This rainfall should not have significant impacts on
rivers streams. However, brief heavy downpours could lead to
temporary ponding of water in poor drainage urban and low lying
areas.

Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible late
Saturday into Saturday night with another fast moving frontal
system passing through.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa kl
near term... Kl
short term... Kl
long term... Wasula
aviation... Bgm
fire weather... Iaa kl
hydrology... Iaa kl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 82 mi44 min 63°F 52°F1024.1 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 97 mi44 min N 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 1023.3 hPa42°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY48 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair69°F37°F32%1023.3 hPa

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NW15NW10NW8NW4CalmCalmNW4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4N8SE35SW4W3Calm
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2 days ago3NW8E7E9E6SE5N6NW4CalmCalmCalmE4SE6S4Calm3SW4SW10W8W11W15
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Wed -- 02:39 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:26 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:17 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:51 PM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.30.60.51.42.94.25.15.65.64.83.62.61.70.7-00.21.42.73.64.24.43.93.1

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:07 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.10.50.51.63.14.35.25.75.54.63.42.51.60.6-0.10.41.62.83.74.24.33.82.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.