Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:52PM Saturday June 24, 2017 9:46 AM EDT (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:05AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1010 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Patchy fog. Showers likely late this evening...then a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning... Then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201706240915;;722273 FZUS51 KBUF 240210 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1010 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-240915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241050
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
650 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
Sunny skies will prevail this morning, giving way to afternoon
cloudiness, with a few showers or thunderstorms possible across
portions of the forecast area. Temperatures will run cooler than
average this weekend, as upper level troughing moves across the
region. The cooler temperatures will be accompanied by showers at
times, particularly on Sunday and Monday, as a series of upper level
disturbances moving through the trough cross the area. The trough
will move east by Wednesday, with warmer temperatures expected by
mid-week.

Near term through tonight
Showers have largely ended across the forecast area this morning,
with the cold front now almost entirely through the area. Sunshine
will continue to spread east, as the last of the frontally-induced
cloudiness moves out of the area. Increasing sunshine this morning
will give way to increasing clouds this afternoon, as upper level
troughing moves into the area. Cooling temperatures aloft, along
with diurnal heating will allow for the development of widespread cu
during the afternoon, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
possible along the lake breeze boundary south of lake ontario as
well as the boston hills. With cooler air advecting into the region,
temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 70s
across most locales, with a few spots in the typically warmer
genesee valley climbing into the upper 70s.

Any convective activity will come to an end during the evening
hours, with the loss of diurnal heating, leaving quiet and cool
night across the area. The cooler temperatures aloft, combined with
diminished cloud cover will translate to cooler readings than we have
seen at night of late, with lows dipping into the upper 50s along
the lake plains, with mid 50s across the higher elevations inland.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
On Sunday, a broad mid-level longwave trough will extend from the
northern plains across the great lakes and into the northeast
region. 00z GFS ec models show a sharp mid level shortwave and
embedded vigorous vorticity MAX shifting through the base of the
longwave trough and crossing western and central ny during the day.

Synoptic scale lift from this shortwave and low-level forcing from a
surface trough and 30+ kt low level jet will contribute to scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. The most widespread
coverage will be during the afternoon corresponding to peak heating
and closer to the passage of the surface trough. Gusty southwest
winds 25-30kts downwind of the lakes should provide a lake shadow to
keep shower storm coverage mainly inland. Temperatures will top out
a few degrees below normal due to the influence of the longwave
trough and associated pool of cool air aloft. Highs are forecast to
top out within a few degrees of 70. Dewpoints only around 50 will
yield very comfortable humidity levels.

In the wake of the surface trough Sunday night, 850mb temps become
cool enough to bring a potenial for some rare summertime lake
effect enhancement east of the lakes. 850mb temps bottoming out
around +6c with lake temps +21c should support at least lake effect
clouds and even the risk for a chance of showers. Overnight lows
will again dip into the low-mid 50s and even upper 40s in the cooler
interior western southern tier and tug hill.

On Monday, another strong vort MAX and associated shortwave trough
is forecast to shift across the central toward the eastern great
lakes. Synoptic scale lift ahead of this looks to contribute to
another round of mainly diurnal influenced instability showers with
isolated thunderstorms. Taller shower storm cells in this cool
environment may bring some small hail with a sub-10kft wbz height.

Tough to say if lake shadows will again set up with weaker winds
aloft so have placed highest pops into the likely range closer to
gfs moisture axis ahead of the shortwave mainly from the finger
lakes south and west. A lingering pool of cool air aloft will hold
temperatures below normal with highs forecast mainly in the mid to
upper 60s. Have left a chance for showers lingering through Monday
night as the vort MAX will shift overhead during the overnight
hours. Lower dewpoint air in place will help overnight temps to slip
back into the 50s with upper 40s possible in the interior western
southern tier and tug hill.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Latest runs of the medium range guidance indicate that the axis of
the longwave trough and associated vort MAX will be in the process
of shifting east of the forecast area on Tuesday. The cool air aloft
within the trough (again 850mb t around 6c) will support mainly a
diurnal threat for showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Similar
to Monday, taller shower storm cells in this cool environment may
bring some small hail with a sub-10kft wbz height. Again with
lingering cool air aloft, high temps will top out again in the 60s.

Surface high pressure centered over the southern appalachians will
ridge north across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday allowing
for dry weather with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temps will
still run a degree or two below normal.

Thursday and Friday, the high is forecast to shift off the mid-
atlantic coast with southerly winds bringing a return of increasing
moisture and warmth across western and central ny. Highs look to
push back above normal with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s. A
cool front looks to be the main focus for shower and thunderstorm
activity as both the GFS and ec models indicate it may become
stalled stationary somewhere over the forecast area.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
With the passage of a cold front overnight, the majority of the
forecast area has transitioned over toVFR conditions, with fine
flying weather expected across most areas this mornign, with the
exception of the north country, where kart kgtb remain under ifr
conditions. Regional satellite imagery indicates that these areas
should improve within the next hour or so, as the cold front is
nearly on the area's doorstep.

Vfr conditions will prevail throughout the day, though diurnal
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms may develop in the
afternoon, largely along lakebreeze boundaries along the kiag kroc
corridor, and SE of kbuf, over the boston hills. Convection should
rapidly diminish this evening, with the loss of diurnal heating,
giving way to moreVFR conditions overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday... MainlyVFR with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms... Mainly in the afternoons.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Westerly flow developing in the wake of a cold front crossing the
area will generate a moderate chop across the eastern ends of the
lakes, with waves building to 3 feet by this afternoon. Waves will
rise higher on Sunday, particularly on the eastern half of lake
erie, as winds strengthen further as a strong upper level
disturbance moves through, and small craft advisories will likely be
needed on both lakes for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. After a
brief respite Monday morning, another passing upper level
disturbance will likely bring another period of small craft advisory
conditions to lake erie Monday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wood
near term... Wood
short term... Smith
long term... Smith
aviation... Wood
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi47 min 65°F1003.3 hPa (+2.3)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi47 min W 16 G 21 66°F 1005.1 hPa (+2.3)59°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi47 min 69°F 1002.4 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi49 minW 810.00 miOvercast65°F62°F91%1003.5 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S8CalmCalmS5SW3S4SW7SW8W3CalmW3W3W6W6W5W7W6W3W5W3W4W5W8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.