Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:02PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:24 AM EST (10:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 10:42PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 331 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Today..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain, a slight chance of freezing rain and snow early, then a chance of rain and freezing rain this morning. Rain and freezing rain this afternoon. The lake is mostly ice covered in this section.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Rain and freezing rain in the evening, then rain overnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Lake effect snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LOZ045 Expires:201801221600;;816436 FZUS51 KBUF 220843 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-221600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 220950
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
450 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift across the area today with some light
rain and drizzle. More significant rainfall is expected later
today and tonight, as a large storm system tracks through the
great lakes, with temperatures warming well into the 40s ahead
of this system. A cold front will then bring back more typical
winter weather late Tuesday into Thursday. Another warm up is
forecast Friday into next weekend.

Near term through tonight
A dense fog advisory has been issued across western ny as
observations sites are reporting dense fog with visibilities down to
a quarter mile. These fog has formed due to warm air moving over our
snow pack. The dense fog will make for hazardous driving during the
morning commute. The advisory runs through 10am where more
widespread incoming rain may help lift visibilities.

The leading edge of a warm front has lifted across much of western
ny early this morning with its eastern end yet to move across
central new york. Radar returns across western ny remain isolated
with mainly dense fog and drizzle showing up on metars. Mainly dry
but foggy north of the front into the eastern lake ontario region.

Further southwest more widespread rain is lifting across ohio. This
is likely the leading edge of a low level jet which is forcing the
rainfall which is on its way toward our region later this morning.

Temperatures across western and central ny remain mild with readings
in the mid to upper 30s with only the immediate saint lawrence
river valley running near freezing.

The low level jet will lift a wide swath of rain across western ny
this morning then central ny this afternoon which will also force
the warm front north of new york. Total QPF today is forecast to
range from a few hundredths across the western finger lakes to near a
quarter inch from the niagara frontier to the north county. The only
exception to the plain rain will be across northern jefferson county
where persistent northeasterly flow will likely keep sub-freezing
air locked into tonight. This will result in precipitation falling
as freezing rain this afternoon and evening before temperatures
climb above freezing tonight. A winter weather advisory remains in
place for jefferson county to account for about two tenths of an
inch ice accretion.

The precipitation will wane across western ny this afternoon as the
leading edge of the low level jet pushes north and east. Most areas
south of lake ontario will lie within the warm sector with a short
period of limited showers or dry but cloudy conditons. There could
also be some redevelopment of fog. Temperatures will climb into the
40s south of lake ontario, possibly near 50 degrees closer to the
pennsylvania state line. Temps will linger near freezing along the
saint lawrence river valley but reach the low 40s south toward
fulton.

Tonight, models continue to indicate a cold front will push across
lake erie reaching western ny by daybreak Tuesday. This cold front
will be associated with a storm system lifting from the midwest
states into the central great lakes. Another several hour period of
rain will bring an additional quarter to half inch of rain tonight.

Some additional ice accumulations should be expected across the
saint lawrence river valley before temps rise above freezing. A
steady southerly flow ahead of the cold front should prevent
additional dense fog. Temps should linger in the low to mid 40s most
of the night with upper 30s in the north country late. The
combination of snow melt and a half to three-quarters of an inch of
rain fall may bring some ice jams. A flood watch remains in effect
from this afternoon through Tuesday with additional details in the
hydrology section below.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
A large and mature low pressure system centered near georgian bay
Tuesday morning will continue to track northeast down the st.

Lawrence valley Tuesday and Tuesday night before eventually turning
north into labrador on Wednesday. The cold front associated with
this system will cross western north-central new york during the day
on Tuesday, and as this occurs we will likely see rain give way to a
period of dry weather or a few scattered showers before wrap-around
moisture precipitation on the western side of the departing low
works its way across the forecast area. The wrap-around
precipitation will coincide with falling temperatures as cold air is
advected into the region behind the low, and by the end of the day
we should see rain showers changing over to snow showers,
particularly across upslope areas east of the lakes.

Temperatures will continue to fall Tuesday night, as sub-arctic air
filters across the region in the wake of the departing low. Readings
will fall into the low 20s by daybreak on Wednesday, ushering in a
return to more winter-like conditions. As 850mb temps fall below
-10c, we should see lake effect snows develop southeast of the
lakes. Model QPF fields are having difficulty picking up on this
feature, due likely to the very shallow moisture profiles, however
bufkit profiles show instability and saturation within the dendritic
growth zone, much as they did last week when we had light but
persistent les in spite of model QPF being negligible. With that in
mind, have bumped up pops and snow amounts southeast of the lakes
for Tuesday night into Wednesday with roughly 1-3 inches possible
Tuesday night and 1-2 more inches possible Wednesday across the more
lake-effect prone areas southeast of the lakes.

Lake effect snows may linger into Wednesday night before winding
down on Thursday, as surface ridging moves across the lower great
lakes. This should lead to a return of sunshine on Thursday, though
northwesterly flow aloft will keep it cold across the region, with
highs ranging from the low teens in the north country to the low to
mid 20s in western new york. Wednesday night will likely be the
coldest night of the week, with lows in the lower teens across most
areas, except for the north country, which will be flirting with sub-
zero temperatures. Thursday night will be slightly less cold, as
upper level troughing will be in the process of departing the region.

Long term Friday through Sunday
High pressure, fair weather, and milder temperatures will be the
name of the game on Friday, as an amplifying upper level ridge moves
overhead the region. The respite will be short-lived however, as the
next storm system in what continues to be a very progressive upper
level pattern approaches the region. While the main surface low
associated with this system will pass well to our north across james
bay and into quebec, a deep plume of gomex moisture will be drawn
towards this low around the western periphery of the bermuda high
and across our region, where it will interact with a sharp upper
level trough over the midwest and a favorably positioned upper level
jet-streak to produce widespread rainfall from the mississippi
valley to the lower great lakes Saturday into Saturday night. The
system should be fast-moving enough to keep rainfall amounts from
raising flooding concerns at this point.

Warm temperatures will accompany the moisture plume, with highs
easily climbing back into the 40s for much of the weekend. Rainfall
should wind down from west to east Sunday, as the progressive system
presses on to the east and a cold front crosses the region Sunday,
with temperatures falling back below freezing Sunday night.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
A saturated airmass is in place across the terminals early this
morning with a warm front lifting across wny. All terminals with the
exception of kart are seeing sub-ifr ifr CIGS and vsbys as warm air
moves over the snowpack along with areas of drizzle and dense fog.

Kart is running MVFR. Kjhw will hold in vlifr lifr CIGS and vis
through this morning. A swath of widespread steady rain will lift
across western ny this morning then into central ny this afternoon.

Terminals look to then lift to MVFRVFR for a short time between
this afternoon and this evening behind the warm front.

A cold front will push across lake erie and approach wny tonight
with another area of widespread rain shifting across the terminals.

There could be potentially some additional fog as well but a steadier
southerly flow should keep it more limited. Additionally, low level
wind shear looks likely as a strong low level jet shifts over our
region just ahead of the front. This should bring a return of
MVFR ifr cigs.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MVFR ifr with rain showers changing to snow showers before
ending... Then areas of lake effect snow also developing east of the
lakes Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Thursday and Friday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
East winds will freshen on today on lake ontario with a warm front
slowly lifting across the south shore of the lake. This front will
be associated with an area of low pressure tracking into the mid-
mississippi valley then towards the great lakes tonight. Winds and
waves will reach small craft advisory on the western half of lake
ontario this afternoon into this evening.

The low will sweep a cold front across the lower great lakes Tuesday
with winds becoming westerly by Tuesday night. This will likely bring
another round of solid small craft advisory conditions and near gale
force winds to lake ontario behind the front Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

Hydrology
A flood watch for ice jam flooding is in effect for all of
western new york from this afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Temperatures continue to hover in the low to mid 40s across
much of western new york allowing a continuation of the
snowpack across the region to melt. Temperatures will remain
above freezing into Tuesday evening... With daytime readings
peaking between 45 and 50 and widespread rain coming tonight.

This will allow a true melt down of the snowpack over the
western counties with the runoff flowing into creeks... Many of
which are ice covered clogged.

Using research proven over several decades... The melting degrees
experienced from the above described temperature forecast
suggests that ice jam flooding could prove to be a problem as
early as this afternoon. This potential problem will be
exacerbated by a general quarter to as much as three quarters
inch of rain later today through tonight.

While there will be a risk for ice jam flooding... A less
impressive snowpack... Lower temperatures and less rainfall
compared to last weeks flooding should translate into more
localized flooding. In other words... Flooding should not be as
widespread as the last event. In any case... Those living in
areas prone to ice jam flooding should pay attention to water
levels and subsequent statements and warnings issued by the
buffalo national weather service office.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 1 am est Tuesday
for nyz007.

Flood watch from 1 pm est this afternoon through Tuesday
evening for nyz001>005-010>014-019>021-085.

Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for nyz001>003-
010>013-019>021-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 1 am est
Tuesday for loz042-043.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Smith
short term... Wood
long term... Wood
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith
hydrology... Rsh smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi54 min 33°F1020.8 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi54 min SSE 4.1 G 7 37°F 1019.3 hPa33°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi54 min 26°F 1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi28 minNE 410.00 miOvercast33°F29°F86%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW7SW6SW6SW7SW6SW4SW5SW6CalmSE4CalmSE5SE6SE6SE8SE7SE7SE8SE7SE7SE8NE5NE4
1 day agoW19
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2 days agoSW7S8SW5SW8SW8SW9SW9SW8SW6S10SW8SW7S7S10SE9SE9S10SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.