Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:04PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:36 PM EDT (16:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:02AMMoonset 6:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1031 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
This afternoon..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ045 Expires:201709202100;;668425 FZUS51 KBUF 201433 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-202100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 201510
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1110 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and the coming weekend, as high pressure will
remain in place across the region.

Near term through Thursday
Surface analysis late this morning showing western and central new
york are sandwiched between jose southeast of long island and an
occluded frontal system pushing across the upper midwest. Surface
high pressure centered over western quebec is ridged south across
the eastern great lakes with 500mb analysis placing a 583dm ridge
overhead. All morning fog has dissipated with some lingering
low stratus over and along the south shore of lake ontario.

Dry, warm and humid conditions will continue this afternoon with
mainly sunny skies and light northeast winds. Some diurnal cumulus
may develop in spots where lingering moisture from morning fog is
available including the western southern tier. 850 mb temperatures
warming to around +16c with the mostly sunny skies will lead to
temperatures similarly as warm as yesterday. Highs are expected to
range from the upper 70s in higher terrain to low mid 80s at lower
elevations. Dewpoints in the 60s will keep a humid feel to the
airmass.

Tonight, high pressure will remain over the region with light winds
and clear skies again allowing for radiational cooling fog formation
overnight. Fog is most likely in the southern tier valleys as well
as the black river and saint lawrence river valleys.

Thursday will be another near carbon-copy of today with perhaps the
only differences being the mid-level ridge strengthening to 588dm
and 850mb temps warming a degree to +17c. The high pressure surface
and aloft will keep dry and warm weather in place with high temps
again warming into the low to mid 80s or 10-15 degrees above normal
september levels. Dewpoints holding in the 60s will keep a humid
feel to the airmass.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Two words will summarize this time period... Dry and warm.

There will be an amplifying upper level pattern in place during this
time period with equally anomalous height departures found over each
half of the country. For our interest here in the lower great lakes
region... H5 heights will average close to 590dm... Which is 2-3 std
higher than where they should be for this time of year. The staunch
summer-like ridge... Which will be centered over the mid-west and
lower great lakes... Will support unusually warm conditions as well.

H85 temperatures that will start off in the mid teens c will further
warm to the upper teens c by the weekend. This will encourage
additional day to day warming so that by Saturday... MAX temps will
be in the mid to upper 80s f. Given the increasingly dry antecedent
conditions... Its not out of the question that select locations in
the genesee valley (ie. Dansville) and in the typically warmer
valleys of the southern tier would reach 90. If this were mid
summer... When the Sun angle would be more than 20 deg greater... Then
we would likely be talking about increasingly uncomfortable
conditions and possibly some oppressive heat (esp this weekend).

Luckily for us... The gulf of mexico will be cut off..So dew points
for much of the period will generally range from the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Meanwhile the nights will feature mainly clear skies with the
resulting favorable radiational cooling producing fog in open...

outlying areas... And particularly in the southern tier valleys. Mins
will range from the mid and upper 50s across the southern tier and
parts of the north country to the low to mid 60s across the lake
plains.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
It can be stated with high confidence that we can look forward to
continued fair weather during this period... Along with continued mid
summer warmth (temperatures that will be more typical of late july-
early august).

An anomalously amplified pattern will be locked in across the
country during this time frame... With 590dm heights over the lower
great lakes averaging some 2-3 std above typical late sept values.

The associated subsidence and lack of significant moisture will keep
sunny skies over our region by day... With h85 temps in the upper
teens c supporting widespread afternoon MAX temps in the mid to 80s.

The warmer valleys will experience highs in the upper 80s. These
temperatures will average some 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

Meanwhile at night... Mins will continue to range from the mid and
upper 50s across the southern tier and parts of the north country to
the low to mid 60s across the lake plains.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Monday
Mostly sunny skies in place late this morning with high
pressure in place. Lingering stratus at kroc and kart is holding
in some MVFR ifr CIGS otherwiseVFR through today. High
pressure will remain in place tonight with patchy fog again
expected in the western southern tier and saint lawrence river
valley. This could again bring ifr vis CIGS to these sites
overnight with will lift toVFR after 13 14z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday... MainlyVFR. Local ifr conditions
each late night and early morning with southern tier valley fog.

Marine
High pressure will remain in place across the lower great lakes
right through next weekend. This will provide a long stretch of very
light winds and flat wave action for the rest of the week and
weekend with ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church smith
near term... Smith
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Smith
marine... Hitchcock thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi49 min 70°F1017.1 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi49 min NNW 5.1 G 6 70°F 1016.8 hPa63°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi49 min 73°F 1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi1.7 hrsNNE 610.00 miFair71°F62°F76%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmN3N4N3N4N3N3NE3CalmSE4SE3SE4SE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmN4NE6E6
1 day agoSW4--SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE8SE9SE11SE10SE9SE8SE9SE12SE10SE9SE10S5SE6SE4
2 days agoSE3SW5SW3W4NW3NW3NW3CalmS3S4SE5S5S3SE5SE9SE6SE8SE8SE8SE9SE7SE7SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.