Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:41PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 7:31 PM EST (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 334 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Thursday through late Thursday night...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Light snow this evening, then light snow, light sleet, light rain and light freezing rain after midnight. Waves in ice free areas 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of light snow in the morning, then a chance of light rain and light snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain during the day, then rain Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales. Rain showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 9 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Monday..West winds to 30 knots becoming north and diminishing to around 10 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LOZ045 Expires:201902210415;;245894 FZUS51 KBUF 202034 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 334 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-210415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 210016
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
716 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A light wintry mix of precipitation will develop this evening and
gradually transition to rain overnight as warmer air arrives. This
will end by early Thursday morning as a cold front slides through
the area. High pressure will return for the rest of the work week
before a much stronger system arrives this weekend. Rain will be
common by Saturday night before a very strong cold front likely
brings very strong, damaging winds on Sunday.

Near term through Thursday
The first wave of upper level moisture and warm advection is
spreading into the north country early this evening with some spotty
light snow. Any accumulation will be minimal as this area of light
snow continues to erode as it moves into a dry airmass ahead of the
system. There is a break behind the initial area of light snow from
the genesee valley into the western finger lakes and points
southeast of lake ontario. The next round of steadier precipitation
is moving into chautauqua county, and this will quickly overspread
the area this evening.

This next round of precipitation is associated with a deeper wave
and will bring much more widespread precipitation than the initial
wave. Temperatures had risen into the mid 30s in buffalo and niagara
falls as of mid afternoon, but have now dropped back to 31 despite
the ongoing southeast downslope winds. With the imminent arrival of
precipitation, had to expand the winter weather advisory back into
northern erie and niagara counties. Expect a few hours of freezing
rain potential before temperatures begin to rise again.

Inland and farther east the near surface cold air will hold long
enough to support a period of freezing rain at the onset, with the
longest period of freezing rain across the colder valley locations
of the western southern tier and also east of lake ontario. Any ice
accumulation will be very light in most areas, but may reach a tenth
of an inch across the southern tier valleys and a few valleys in the
western finger lakes and east of lake ontario. All of this will
change to rain overnight from west to east as warmer air spreads
into the region, and any ice that does accumulate will melt.

A cold front slices through the area on Thursday with some gusty
winds in its wake. Temperatures will likely MAX out early in the
day as cold advection starts. So with little upward temperature
mobility and gusts to 35 mph or so, it will feel colder than it
likely will be for much of Thursday.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Generally zonal flow and slowly rising mid level heights through
Friday night, as weak upper ridging and accompanying surface high
pressure slide through the region. This pattern will ensure dry
weather across the region. The only exception may be early Thursday
night as some lingering light precipitation will be possible east of
lake ontario, primarily focused on the higher terrain of the
adirondacks.

The respite from precipitation will come to an end later Saturday
and Saturday night. A dynamic upper level wave trough will track
through northern mexico on Friday, with rapid cyclogenesis taking
place over the central plains on Saturday. It looks like some
additional upper level energy coming out of the pacific northwest
will help deepen the storm to 980 mb or lower as the system tracks
through the upper midwest to the western great lakes through
Saturday night.

As this occurs, a significant amount of moisture will be transported
northward back into the eastern great lakes. While the day on
Saturday for the most part looks dry, clouds will increase and
thicken from the south during the course of day. Some patchy light
rain could reach far western new york by the end of the day. A
milder day is expected with temperatures warming into the 40s,
perhaps nearing 50f over the western counties.

Rain will eventually overspread the entire region Saturday night as
low level moisture transport accompanies a northward moving warm
front.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Widespread damaging winds likely Sunday...

a very strong storm system will move across the central great lakes
and into quebec Sunday-Sunday night. Model guidance continues to
show a favored track for western and north central ny to receive
widespread high, damaging winds. The past few model runs of the gfs
has lowered the central pressure to 974mb as it tracks to the
northwest, which is now close to the ecmwf. With these two global
models in good agreement, this far out, confidence is moderate-high
that the region should see a high wind event Sunday-Sunday night.

Going into the details, a mid-level trough with a 1.5 mb pv
intrusion will be following the strong surface low pressure as it
cuts the great lakes. This will cause the low to slow its deepening
process as it moves into eastern canada. This won't really matter in
the potential for high winds as a strong low-level jet will already
be across western ny by Sunday morning. The core of the low-level
jet will likely move across western ny and into north-central ny by
afternoon. At this point, a cold front will be moving across the
region while southwest 925-850mb winds align. Strong subsidence with
lapse rates around 9 deg c km will mix gusts to 55 to 65 mph
starting at some point Sunday and continuing into the evening. This
prolonged period of strong gusts will cause widespread wind damage
if they pan out. Please keep in mind though that at this point... It
is only a forecast... Albeit one with increasing confidence. It will
be important to stay tuned to updated forecasts and possible
statements headlines as we progress through the rest of the week. As
a side note... The front will be accompanied by some showers on
Sunday... Mainly ahead of it... And then several hours after it moves
through.

Winds will remain strong into Monday morning as the 6hr pressure
change between the exiting strong low pressure to the north and the
approaching high pressure is on the order of 10-12 mb. Gusts of 40-
50 mph will likely continue into Monday. Cold air will also being
moving into the region at this time and snow showers are expected
with lake enhancement south-southeast of both lakes. Minor
accumulations are expected at this time.

Temperatures will be above normal Sunday-Sunday night before cold
air advection brings temperatures below-normal for much of next
week.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Spotty light snow will continue through mid evening across the north
country with MVFR vsby. The next round of precipitation will spread
across the region from southwest to northeast this evening. This
will fall briefly as freezing rain inland from the lakeshores before
changing to rain overnight. Vsby will generally drop to MVFR in the
steadier precipitation. Widespread MVFR CIGS will continue to
develop this evening with ifr across higher terrain.

The rain will taper off quickly from west to east late tonight,
leaving mainly dry conditions for Thursday. The one exception may be
across the higher terrain east of lake ontario where some light
upslope rain and snow showers may continue through the day with
local MVFR vsby. The widespread MVFR CIGS will continue through much
of the day Thursday in low stratus behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow. Strong winds.

Monday...VFR MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Marine
The center of a storm system will cut through the central great
lakes tonight, with southeast winds veering to southwesterly
tonight. While these winds will keep the higher waves over the
canadian waters, the winds may flirt with small craft thresholds
later today and tonight. Thursday these southwest winds will
increase further, and will place SCA on the lakes through Thursday
night. Winds will also reach low end SCA on the niagara river later
tonight and tomorrow.

A powerful storm system will cut through the central great lakes
Sunday and Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will
produce at least gale force winds on the lakes, with storm force
wind gusts likely.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for nyz003>005-
012>014-019>021-085.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
nyz001-002-010-011.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Thursday for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday
for loz030.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Friday for loz042>044.

Small craft advisory from 1 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday
for loz045.

Synopsis... Fries
near term... Fries hitchcock
short term... Tma
long term... Hsk rsh
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Fries


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi37 min 1021.2 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi37 min SSE 13 G 22 27°F 1019.8 hPa23°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi37 min 22°F 1021.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi35 minSSE 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast27°F17°F67%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5CalmCalmS5SE5SE4SE5SE5SE5SE7SE7SE6SE7SE7SE8SE10SE7SE10SE12SE11SE14SE13SE12
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1 day agoW3NW4CalmN6N3NW5NW4NW5NW4SW3CalmSW4CalmW5W4W5W6W8SW10W10W6W6SW3S4
2 days agoNE6NE8NE6NE8NE7NE6NE6NE8NE8NE10NE9NE11N9NE11NE11NE13N13N10N12N10NW8NW6W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.