Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:36PM Saturday November 17, 2018 3:18 PM EST (20:18 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 245 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Sunday...
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast and diminishing to 10 knots or less after midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LOZ045 Expires:201811180415;;453762 FZUS51 KBUF 171945 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 245 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-180415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 171947
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
247 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will drop across the region this evening with some
light snow showers, but otherwise dry conditions. Weak low pressure
will pass to our south on Sunday bringing some light snow to the
southern tier. There will be some light snow showers during the
first half of next week, followed by high pressure and cold and
dry weather for thanksgiving.

Near term through Sunday
For the remainder of this afternoon, plentiful low moisture will
result in persistent cloud cover and cool temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s. A weak cold front will approach from the north and
quickly move across the region through this evening. This will
result in a brief increase in lake enhanced snow showers with this
front, but any snow accumulation will be light. Showers may be mixed
with rain at times this afternoon.

Drier boundary layer air will build in behind the front late this
evening and tonight. This may result in a brief clearing before mid
and high clouds spreading in advance of the next system reach the
area. Mesoscale guidance suggests a narrow band or cluster of lake
effect snow showers may briefly develop southeast of lake ontario
late tonight. Localized accumulations of an inch or two cannot be
ruled out, but the vast majority of the forecast area will be dry
from late evening on. Winds will shift to the southeast Sunday
morning so any lingering lake effect snow will move out over the
lake. Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens east of lake
ontario, and in the low to mid 20s elsewhere.

On Sunday a shortwave embedded in a vigourous upper level flow will
move across the region. There will be a sharp mid-level thermal
gradient across the area, with this shortwave resulting in a period
of warm air advection and favorable jet dynamics. Nearly all model
guidance shows measurable precipitation across southern areas, with
little if any precipitation north of i-90 from buffalo to syracuse.

However model agreement and synoptic scale lift supports categorical
pops across the western southern tier even if snow accumulation will
only be around an inch. Temperatures will remain below normal on
Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
A 120kt upper level jet will be moving across the northeast while
surface low pressure tracks along a stalled front south of western
ny Sunday night. Dry westerly flow will be increasing across the
eastern great lakes and light snow will be departing the western
southern tier through Sunday evening. Cold, southwest flow will lead
to the generation of lake effect showers northeast of the lakes
Sunday evening. Due to the incoming dry airmass, snow showers will
be scattered and light. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper
20's Sunday night.

The mean flow will slowly become westerly by Monday morning and snow
showers will move east of the lakes impacting the southtowns and
western southern tier and east of lake ontario. Synoptic moisture
will increase from the north as a shortwave trough approaches lake
ontario. This will likely keep snow showers east of lake ontario
with enhancement on the tug hill into Monday evening. With this
being said, subsidence and mid-level dry air will still keep snow
showers scattered and lackluster east of lake ontario. Snow showers
will end east of lake erie by Monday afternoon. Minor accumulations
of up to an inch are expected east of lake ontario, mainly on the
tug hill. Areas outside of the lakes will remain dry Monday.

Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 30's.

A large scale mid-level trough will remain overhead Monday night
into Tuesday night. Surface low pressure will track across the
northern great lakes reaching lake ontario by Tuesday morning. A
cold front will move across the eastern great lakes and snow showers
will track across western and north-central ny. Lake enhancement
will produce minor accumulations northeast-east of the lakes by
Tuesday afternoon. As flow becomes northwest behind the front, snow
showers will persist southeast of the lakes where minor
accumulations are possible into Tuesday night. Cold with
temperatures falling into the low 20s to teens east of lake ontario
Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek as a longwave
trough remains in place across the northeast quarter of the nation.

A few more weak mid level shortwaves and associated cold fronts will
bring the potential for nuisance snow showers through midweek, with
limited lake effect potential at times. A weak shortwave may cross
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of a few more
snow showers.

Late next week into next weekend it still appears a pattern change
will bring a significant warm-up to our region. The details on when
the warm-up arrives continues to show a good deal of run to run
variation in model guidance. Model and ensemble consensus from
yesterday suggested thanksgiving would be the first warmer day.

Model guidance has now backed off on this idea, with a lingering
trough over new england through thanksgiving. In fact, the new 00z
ecmwf has another strong push of cold air arriving Wednesday night
and thanksgiving day. Given the model uncertainty, have trended the
forecast temperatures down for thanksgiving but not as far as
current model guidance. A warmer airmass will eventually arrive by
Friday or next weekend.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
Lots of low level moisture is in place, with cloudy skies across the
regions. Cloud bases are in the MVFRVFR flight categories at most
stations, except across the western southern tier (including kjhw)
where there is a mix of ifr MVFR conditions. These conditions will
largely remain until after 21z when a weak cold front approaches and
brings some light snow showers. However, behind this front the
boundary is drier which will result in improving conditions this
evening and tonight.

A weak area of low pressure will track to our south and bring a
general area of light snow to southern areas on Sunday. This is
likely to result in ifr conditions from light snow at kjhw. The
steady snow should pass south of other TAF sites, with mainlyVFR
conditions expected on Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...VFR MVFR. Periodic snow showers.

Thursday...VFR.

Marine
Westerly winds will gradually diminish through this evening as
surface high pressure builds toward the region. Small craft
headlines were extended a few hours for lake erie and western
lake ontario, but small craft headlines will be able to be
dropped through tonight as winds diminish. A few weak systems
may result in a brief increase in winds Monday through
Wednesday, but for the most part the first half of the week
should be headline free. High pressure will build across the
lower great lakes Wednesday night and Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for
loz043>045.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
loz042.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Hsk
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi30 min 46°F1019.2 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi30 min W 22 G 29 1020.7 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi30 min 49°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi22 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F29°F74%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
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1 day agoSE12SE10SE7SE8SE8SE11E7E9E8E7NE5NE6NE6NE4N3NE6E4CalmSW3CalmSW4CalmS4SW7
2 days agoNW6NW3CalmCalmNE8E5NE6E4E5SE5E5E5SE5SE5SE7SE6SE7SE8SE7SE10SE8SE12SE12SE13
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.