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LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

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FXUS61 KBUF 061022 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 622 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region this morning, with showers coming to an end. Early morning fog and low clouds will give way to partly sunny skies today as high pressure builds into the region. Dry weather will last through Tuesday before a warm front crosses the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then last the rest of the week as a trough of low pressure slowly crosses the Great Lakes.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front will move east of the area by mid morning. An area of showers that was east of Lake Ontario has moved off into the Adirondacks. A few more spotty light showers are possible through the early morning east of Lake Ontario and across the western Finger Lakes, otherwise dry weather will prevail. Much of the fog from earlier has already dissipated as a drier airmass moves into the area. The remaining areas of fog across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario will dissipate by mid morning.

Once the rest of the fog and low stratus dissipates, high pressure building into the Great Lakes will bring a return to dry weather. A fair amount of cirrus will stream across the region today downstream of a mid level trough drifting east across the Ohio Valley. This will yield partly sunny skies in most areas today as sunshine filters through the high clouds. Temperatures will continue to run a little above average, with highs in the 65-70 degree range. Light northwest flow will keep the southern and eastern shores of Lake Ontario much cooler.

Tonight high pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, maintaining dry and quiet weather across our region. Extensive cirrus in the evening will clear overnight. The mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for strong radiational cooling, with lows in the low to mid 40s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday, a weakening ridge and an elongated sfc high stretching into the region from Canada will provide for mainly fair weather for the day. A few scattered showers/sprinkles may reach far sw NY by the late afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue with afternoon highs reaching the low to upper 70s for most areas, except the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario where afternoon temperatures will reach the mid 60s.

Tuesday night, a few different weak sfc lows and shortwave troughs will traverse along a weakening occluded front that is tracking east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by this time. As these features track toward the region Tuesday night, shower potential will increase from southwest to northeast through the night across the entire forecast area. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible with these showers as there will be some instability, mainly south of I90. This scenario is similar in some ways to the setup earlier this past weekend with an occluded front and the models bringing in more rain than what occurred. Models are starting to come in a little drier overall for the Tuesday night into Wednesday time frame, so will need to keep an eye on how the models handle things. Showers should mostly be done by around daybreak for the western third of the forecast area, with increasing shower potential toward the east during the a.m. commute.

Wednesday, showers will linger through most of the morning for the eastern Lake Ontario area before tracking east, and out of the area.
Wednesday is starting to look a little drier for most areas during the day with WNY remaining mostly rain free and the eastern half of the forecast area only having a few scattered showers/sprinkles during the afternoon. A bit cooler for the day with highs in the low 60s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the mid 70s for the lower elevations south of I90.

Wednesday night, shower potential increases later in the night as an area of low pressure develops over the mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of a trough and tracks toward the region. Showers will track once again from southwest to northeast through the second half of the night. Some guidance is pushing better organized shower activity farther south and across Pennsylvania, so will need to see how that evolves.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The sfc low from Wednesday night will continue to strengthen and increase in size as a trough amplifies over the central CONUS and as a few rounds of vorticity advection move through the trough.

As the trough moves east and the main sfc low tracks ahead of it, a mid level low will develop over the eastern Great Lakes. The combination of the sfc & mid-level low will cause showers to cover most of the forecast area for Thursday into Friday. Showers will mostly taper off from west to east late Friday afternoon into the night as the sfc low tracks east. However, some lingering showers will be possible Saturday morning, especially east of Rochester with a cyclonic flow lingering over the northeast. An incoming ridge for later Saturday will eliminate any remaining showers that may exist across the area.

Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada and across the Great Lakes will increase the shower potential starting Saturday night, BUT there is still very much uncertainty among the models as to track and timing of showers associated with the system. Currently going with chance for showers for most of Sunday, but that can certainly change either way.

Temperatures for the long term period will generally be near normal for most of the period, except for Friday, which still looks cooler than normal.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region by mid morning, with any remaining spotty light showers mainly east of Lake Ontario coming to an end.

Much of the fog and low stratus from overnight is already improving as a drier airmass moves into the area. Areas of IFR VSBY/CIGS over the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario will improve to VFR by mid morning. Elsewhere, areas of MVFR CIGS will also improve by mid morning.

VFR will then prevail for the rest of today and tonight with areas of cirrus.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.

MARINE
Negligible winds and waves will continue through Wednesday. There will be some marine layer fog over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through early to mid morning as a warm/moist airmass overlays the cold lake waters. A much drier airmass will move into the area today, ending the marine layer fog.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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