Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellisburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:34PM Friday May 24, 2019 9:43 PM EDT (01:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:32AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Expires:201905242115;;391979 Fzus61 Kbuf 241725 Glflo Open Lake Forecast For Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 125 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Ontario Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A 30.2 inch high will move off into the saint lawrence valley tonight as a 29.7 inch low will track across southern canada and swing its trailing cold front across the lake on Saturday. A 30.1 inch area of high pressure will build towards the lake Sunday, with its center crossing the lake Monday. Loz063>065-242115- lake ontario open waters from hamlin beach to the saint lawrence river- 125 pm edt Fri may 24 2019
This afternoon..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east less than 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ065


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellisburg, NY
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location: 43.7, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 242155
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
555 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
Cool and generally quiet conditions will continue over the area
as high pressure advances eastward through tonight. Conditions
will then deteriorate late tonight through Saturday night due to
a pair of frontal systems which will push through the region.

High pressure will then ridge southward from canada and into the
great lakes providing mainly dry weather for Sunday and Monday.

Near term through Saturday
Weakened MCV tracking through lower michigan this evening which will
drop ese along the theta-e ridge gradient that is located just to
the SE across ohio into NW pa. Ahead of this feature a few very
light showers sprinkles will be possible across the western southern
tier, mainly chautauqua county.

Otherwise, as this weakened MCV makes a futile attempt to crest the
ridge sprawling through the great lakes it will get shredded apart
this evening. Even hi-res model solutions really eviscerate this mcv
as it continues to attempt to do this, although the larger scale
models hang onto some semblance of narrow lifting on the front side
of the circulation associated with the decaying remnant mesolow. Low
end pops were still maintained across wny and the western southern
tier for this during the evening hours before dry conditions resume.

The mid-level ridge axis passes east of the CWA on Saturday
morning, allowing for flow to rapidly become southerly and then
southwesterly as a warm front advances through the cwa. This
will bring much more humid conditions as evidenced by pwat
values jumping progressively through the day toward 1.75 inches.

With the warm frontal passage, the deepest moisture and
corridor of favored ascent with a leading short wave looks to be
just to the north of the area with weaker moisture and shear
fields farther south. Thus, the best chances of precipitation
from the warm frontal passage look to be just to our north,
however things look to get a bit more interesting once we are
entrenched in the warm sector by the afternoon.

With the aforementioned soupy 1.75 inch pwat environment
sprawled across most of new york state by Saturday afternoon,
and MUCAPE values vaulting toward 1000-1200 j kg (especially
over the southern tier) with attendant 0-6 km bulk shear values
on the order of 35 kts, convective development seems a fairly
good bet. Activity will likely kick off fairly early with
additional redevelopment as the mesoscale environment plays out
in terms outflow interactions. That said, hi-res guidance is
going absolutely loopy in the warm sector. However, given that
the best shear doesn't start to arrive until very late in the
day or the evening, and the apex of warm air doesn't get to our
area until this juncture, it would seem the best potential for
anything severe would hold off until then. That said, SPC does
have the area west of i-390 in a slight risk, and the time
period closer to the evening on Saturday would be the window for
this. Further, it would seem heavy rain would be more
problematic, anyway. Deep moisture, weakened afternoon shear,
and the potential for successive rounds of convective activity
will yield potential for heavy rain accumulations. This could
lead to localized flooding.

Short term Saturday night through Tuesday
As we move into this period... A passing prefrontal trough will
continue to generate fairly widespread convection during the early
and middle portions of Saturday evening... With the moisture-rich
(pwats of up to 1.75") and also rather sheared environment supporting
a risk of both heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. After that
time... Developing subsidence and drying in the wake of the trough
will result in the convection quickly tapering off from northwest
to southeast... With just a few isolated showers leftover across
the southern tier by late Saturday night early Sunday morning.

Otherwise... Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
for the most part.

On Sunday... Low pressure sliding across northern quebec will ease
its trailing weak cold frontal boundary across our region. With
this feature starved for both deep moisture and upper level support...

it should only be able to generate some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms as it passes across areas south of lake
ontario. Have maintained some 20-30 pops to cover these... With the
activity likely to end altogether early Sunday evening. Following
the passage of the front... Canadian high pressure will ridge
southeastward across new york state and provide us with dry quiet
weather and comfortable temperatures for the remainder of the long
holiday weekend... With lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday
night followed by highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on memorial
day.

Monday night and Tuesday our weather will then deteriorate again as
the ridge of high pressure slides off to our east... And gives way to
the first in the next series of waves rippling northeastward around
the periphery of upper level ridging anchored across the southeastern
states. This will result in convective chances returning from west
to east Monday night... With showers and storms then becoming more
numerous during Tuesday as the wave passes directly across new york
state. With an overall warm air advection regime accompanying the
approach and passage of this wave temperatures will also be on the
rise again... With Monday night's lows ranging through the 50s and
Tuesday's highs climbing back into the 70s... And possibly the 80s
in some areas south of lake ontario should there be enough dry time.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
The good news is that the medium range ensemble packages are in
fairly good agreement with the general longwave pattern during this
period. This will translate into a higher confidence forecast. The
bad news is that this pattern will feature several frontal passages
that will favor unsettled weather. A persistent mid level storm
system anchored in the vcnty of james bay will keep a cyclonic flow
over the great lakes region for much of this period... So temps that
will average above normal Tuesday night and Wednesday will drop back
to below normal levels by the end of the work week. The details...

a progressive ridge will amplify over the lower great lakes Tuesday
night... And this will help to push a warm front across our forecast
area to the thousand islands region. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms associated with this boundary will taper off from
south to north (yes... South to north) in the process with mainly
rain free weather anticipated overnight for sites south of buffalo
and rochester. Being in the warm sector... We can anticipate a non-
diurnal temp trend with mins in the lower 60s forecast to occur near
or before midnight.

It will be warm and humid on Wednesday and while the majority of the
day will be rainfree... Conditions over our area should deteriorate
ahead of a pre-frontal trough. This will result in an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms... With a 50kt low level jet
once again promoting strong to severe convection. The highest risk
for strong convection will be south of buffalo and rochester... Away
from the stabilizing effects of a strengthening lake breeze off lake
erie. Temperatures on Wednesday should top out within a few degrees
of 80... With the coolest air being northeast of both lakes erie and
ontario. Meanwhile... H85 temps in the teens should virtually
guarantee highs of least the mid 80s in the genesee valley.

The convection from Wednesday afternoon and evening will die off
during the course of Wednesday night... As we will find ourselves
between the exiting pre frontal trough and approaching cold front.

The cold front will push through our region on Thursday. It is
difficult to time the passage of this feature... Although if it
occurs during the second half of the day... Convection could again
become strong for sites south of buffalo and rochester.

Cooler and drier air in the wake of the cold front will support
improving conditions Thursday night and especially Friday. In
fact... There is relatively strong consensus that canadian high
pressure build across the region on Friday to give us a beautiful
day to end the work week.

Aviation 22z Friday through Wednesday
The only area of interest this evening is a dying MCS which will re-
spread clouds over all the sites from w-e this evening. It may even
produce a light shower or sprinkles across the western southern
tier, mainly for chautauqua county. Otherwise,VFR is expected to hold
at area terminals through this evening and into the first half of
tonight.

Clouds will thicken and lower later tonight into Saturday as a warm
front pushes through the area. Look for increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms overnight and through the day on Saturday.

Some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall and gust winds,
which would lead to lower CIGS and vsbys locally.

Outlook...

Saturday night... MainlyVFR with chance showers and thunderstorms
early.

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Monday...VFR. Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Light winds and minimal wave action is expected tonight with high
pressure residing over the area. Winds and waves will increase from
the south and eventually go southwest on Saturday ahead of a cold
front and widespread showers and thunderstorms. Winds will gradually
turn northwest by Sunday night into Monday and weaken.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ar fries
near term... Ar fries
short term... Jjr
long term... Rsh
aviation... Ar fries
marine... Ar apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi49 min E 1 G 1.9 56°F 1020.5 hPa49°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 24 mi103 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 44°F1 ft1020.4 hPa (+0.7)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 69 mi43 min ESE 5.1 G 6 55°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 70 mi49 min 55°F 1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY24 mi49 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F48°F77%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE6SE43S83SE3Calm3SE33334SE33S8S7S8S7
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2 days agoNW4CalmCalm--W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5NE5E433CalmS6SW3NE53E3Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.