Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reedsport, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:55PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 3:44 PM PST (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 236 Pm Pst Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A mix of fresh swell, northerly wind waves and longer period west swell continues to affect the waters. This will maintain very steep seas for most of the area through Thursday morning. Winds and seas will begin to subside Thursday from north to south and more so Friday morning as high pressure moves through. A weak front will move in Friday night into Saturday. Northwest swell will build behind the front, and seas may become steep. A stronger storm is expected from the southwest Sunday or Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsport, OR
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location: 43.71, -124.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 202306
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
305 pm pst Wed feb 20 2019
the long term section has been updated...

Short term An upper level shortwave and moist onshore flow is
resulting in numerous showers across the area today. Shower
activity will continue through this evening, then decrease
tonight. Some lingering light showers will continue into
Thursday, mainly during the morning across the mountains and
northwest facing slopes.

Snow levels with this system have fluctuated between 1500
and 2500 feet today. Accumulating snow has mainly occurred above
2000 feet during the day but as snow levels lower to 1500 this
evening, expect some light to moderate accumulations between 1500
and 2000 feet. This is expected to affect lower passes west of
the cascades. Lower valley locations west of the cascades where
there is upslope flow during northwest wind, such as along the
umpqua divide south of canyonville, the western foothills of the
cascades, portions of the rogue valley from phoenix to ashland
will be favored for moderate showers and potential for snow
showers this evening. Otherwise expect all higher passes in the
cascades and siskiyous to see periods of moderate snow showers
into this evening. Models also show increased showers across
western and central siskiyou county late today and this evening.

East of the cascades, expect a mix of light to moderate showers.

Winter weather advisories remain in effect through this evening.

Please see the wswmfr for details.

As snow levels lower and some light scattered to isolated showers
linger tonight, may see a light dusting of snow on some lower
valley floors down to 1000 feet elevation. However, since shower
activity will be diminishing, expect this to be limited. Of note,
temperatures will fall into the 20s tonight for many western
valleys. So any moisture remaining on roadways is expected to
freeze and may result in ice on some area roadways.

Partial clearing and a cold air mass over the area will result in
cold temperatures at the coast late tonight and Thursday morning.

With temperatures expected to drop into the lower to mid 30s, have
issued a frost advisory for the immediate coast. Temperatures may
locally dip to freezing and also expect areas just inland of the
coast to reach freezing. Please see the npwmfr for details.

As the trough shifts to the southeast Thursday afternoon and
evening, expect mainly dry conditions across the area. The one
exception will be some lingering light wrap around showers over
lake county. Weak high pressure will build into the area late
Thursday. Thursday night into Friday morning, expect very cold
temperatures overnight with lows in the lower to mid 20s for many
western valleys in siskiyou, jackson and josephine counties and in
the mid 20s to low 30s in valleys in douglas county. Coastal
areas may see another night of temperatures in the lower to mid
30s. East side areas will also trend colder with lows in the
single digits to around 10 degrees.

A front will move down from the northwest and into the area
Friday evening through Saturday. Models have trended weaker and
less moist with this front. So, expect widespread light to
locally moderate precipitation as this front moves into the area.

Snow levels are expected between 2000 to 2500 feet Friday night
and Saturday morning, but locally down to 1500 feet. Then snow
levels are forecast to rise to 2500 to 3500 feet during the day
Saturday. Saturday night, as a low approaches from the southwest
it will bring ample moisture into the area. The GFS shows a plume
of high precipitable water, originating from hawaii, moving into
the coast beginning Saturday night and early Sunday. So there is
the potential for moderate to heavy rain to develop at the coast
by Saturday night with areas of moderate rain inland. Snow levels
are expected to remain around 2500 feet or higher during this
period.

Long term Sun morning, feb 24th through Wed night, feb 28th...

models are consistent in still indicating an upper level trough over
the pacific northwest at the beginning of this long term period.

However, the southward progression of the front side of the trough
slows on Sunday resulting in a more westerly flow over oregon.

Sunday night the trough begins to dig off of the pacific northwest
coast as a large area of high pressure in the gulf of alaska closes
off over alaska. This occurs as subtropical energy and moisture from
major storm activity that has been affecting the hawaiian islands
during the last couple of days undercuts the ridge. Yesterday this
was mentioned in this discussion as a westerly wind burst for early
next week. In the last 24 hours models have trended faster, milder,
wetter, and more persistent with this westerly wind burst early in
the week, and then keep precipitation going under southwest flow mid-
late week. In short, we're expecting much more precipitation now
between Sunday morning and Tuesday morning, likely on the order of 1
to 3 inches of water for most of the forecast area, though lesser
amounts under an inch are expected for some areas east of the
cascades and higher amounts of 3-5 inches are expected in curry
county. With snow levels gradually rising, we're only expecting a
few inches or less of snow for elevation below 4000 feet, but 20 to
40 inches in the mountains above 5500 feet.

It should be noted that model guidance has changed very
significantly in the last 48 hours in regard to the forecast for
late in the weekend into early next week, so we could certainly see
some more twists and bends in it again in the coming days as it
attempts to grasp the influence of the subtropical energy and
moisture. The most uncertainty in the forecast for this extended
time period is, of course, in snow levels and precipitation amounts,
as models differ on the location of the focus of the 'aloha
moisture'- otherwise known as the pineapple express, or an
atmospheric river. The GEFS and GFS are farther north with the focus
of the moisture than is the ecmwf. At this point our forecast is
riding the wave of the consensus of the latest models (the 12z
cycle), as the ECMWF trended toward the GFS in the last 24 hours.

All in all, stay tuned to the forecast for this time period because
we could certainly see some significant precipitation and, possibly,
some hydrological impacts if the higher end precipitation forecasts
and or snow levels were to verify. Btl

Aviation For the 20 18z tafs... West of the cascades
(including koth, krbg, and kmfr)... Areas of MVFR CIGS vsbys in low
clouds, rain, and rain showers will persist into tonight with higher
terrain obscured. Snow levels will be 1500 to 2000 feet today,
dropping to 1000 to 1500 feet late tonight as the showers diminish.

Areas of ifr, especially north of the umpqua divide near roseburg,
will probably lower to ifr early Thursday morning. From the cascades
east (including klmt)... A mix ofVFR and MVFR conditions with
highest terrain obscured, will persist into the afternoon, but
occasional snow showers are expected this afternoon. Any snow
showers will diminish overnight with most valleys becomingVFR but
mountain obscuration persisting, especially on northeast facing
slopes. Keene

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Wednesday 20 february 2019... A mix of
fresh swell, northerly wind waves and longer period west swell
continues to affect the waters. This will maintain very steep seas
for most of the area through Thursday morning. Winds and seas will
begin to subside Thursday from north to south, but small craft
advisory conditions are still likely through Thursday night.

Conditions improve further Friday morning as high pressure moves
through. A weak front will move in Friday night into Saturday.

Northwest swell will build behind the front, and seas may become
steep. A stronger storm is expected from the southwest Sunday or
Monday. There is still considerable uncertainty on the timing and
strength of the low late this weekend or early next week. Keene

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
orz029>031.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
orz025-027-028.

Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am pst Thursday for orz021-022.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 1500
feet in the for orz024-026.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 1500
feet in the for orz023.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 2000
feet in the for caz080-081.

Pacific coastal waters...

- small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 am pst Thursday
for pzz356.

- hazardous seas warning until 10 am pst Thursday for pzz350-356-370-
376.

Cc nsk btl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 24 mi45 min 52°F12 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 28 mi69 min NW 18 G 21 50°F1012 hPa
SNTO3 32 mi75 min N 2.9 45°F 1013 hPa42°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR21 mi49 minNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F39°F77%1011.9 hPa

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1 day agoN11N12N8NE5NE7CalmSE4S6SE6SE6SE5SE3SE5SE8S6SE6SE7SE8SE3CalmSE7SE6SW6W9
2 days agoN8N13N6N6CalmS4SE3--SE7SE6SE4SE8SE7CalmSE6SE4S4SE4CalmCalm3NW6N9N11

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Wed -- 01:58 AM PST     6.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM PST     1.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:04 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:32 PM PST     7.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:53 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:19 PM PST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.26.46.86.45.33.82.51.61.52.23.65.36.97.87.975.53.41.5-0.1-0.9-0.70.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:31 AM PST     6.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM PST     1.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:05 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:05 PM PST     7.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:52 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:53 PM PST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.76.66.65.84.63.221.41.72.74.35.97.37.87.56.34.52.50.7-0.6-0.9-0.31.13

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.