Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reedsport, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:39PM Sunday May 19, 2019 3:44 AM PDT (10:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 5:38AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 306 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure will briefly build over the waters today, then weaken tonight. Seas will remain steep during this interval. A front will move onshore Monday evening. South winds will approach gale force and seas may become very steep ahead and with the front. Low pressure will linger off the coast Monday night into Tuesday with a building west swell. Offshore high pressure will rebuild and persist through the remainder of the week, bringing moderate to strong north winds and steep seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsport, OR
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location: 43.71, -124.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 190413
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
913 pm pdt Sat may 18 2019

Update
A couple of updates were made this evening. The first was earlier
this evening, during which time we extended the end time of the wind
advisory for the rogue valley from 5 pm pdt to 8 pm pdt.

The second update was sent a short time ago and is primarily to
freshen up precipitation probabilities and amounts for tonight
through Sunday morning. The rest of the forecast looks good, so no
need to make any updates there.

Discussion
Today's frontal system brought the breezy south winds we were
expecting, significant rain in some areas, and downslope flow
that blocked nearly all of the precipitation in others. Just in
the past hour some drops have made it to the surface here at the
rogue valley airport, but we have yet to measure rain here.

Elsewhere, winds gusted 40 to 50 mph in the shasta valley, along
portions of the coast, and at a few locations east of the
cascades. There were also gusts to 60 mph in the siskiyous per the
squaw peak raws. Rainfall amounts were quite variable, but
consistent at a quarter to a half of an inch in curry county, and
are up around 0.70" at mount shasta, where the current temperature
is a chilly 36 degrees with moderate rainfall occuring. There
does appear to be several inches of new snow in the mount shasta
area above 6kft, though accumulations below 6kft likely have only
gotten going in the last 4 hours per the few obs we have up near
that level. We'll be keeping the winter weather advisory going
there as planned as temperatures cool and precipitation continues.

Our wind advisories are no longer in effect as winds have
diminished below advisory thresholds.

Tonight through Sunday we're expected showers to finally penetrate
into the valleys that got blocked by downslope flow today. This
will occur as the air mass cools, winds diminish, and then become
northwest tomorrow. The latest nam12 seems to have a pretty good
grasp on the current situation, to include the lower level cold
air in the mount shasta area, so it's solution holds more weight
than others. Interestingly, the nam12 is developing a significant
area of precipitation over the interior west side tonight from the
cascades west to the coastal ranges, along with snow level
falling to between 4kft and 6kft. Meanwhile, the new GFS continues
pushing the precipitation east of the cascades, while the older
12z ECMWF shows something in between. Thus, have updated the
forecast to indicate a little more precipitation for the interior
west side valleys overnight, in the 0.10"-0.20" range, though the
nam12 solution indicates amounts up around 0.40". We'll have to
keep an eye on this, as the current forecast is roughly a blend
of the 3 primary models.

The forecast for tomorrow looks to be on track with showers
around and a threat of thunderstorms generally from about 20 miles
from the oregon-california border southward. Btl

Prev discussion issued 250 pm pdt Sat may 18 2019
short term...

the forecast seems to be on track this afternoon and evening as
the winds have picked up in the rogue and shasta valleys over the
last few hours. Currently the temperature is 42 to 40 degrees
around mt shasta city, which suggests it is probably snowing
around 5000 feet under those heavy showers.

As this system continues to move closer to shore and weaken, we'll
see the winds begin to diminish later this evening for all
locations. Satellite shows a large slice of dry air behind the
approaching occluded front. We'll likely see rain into this
evening ahead of the front, but rain chances will diminish behind
the front. Even with the drier air behind the front, models are
still pretty aggressive with a chance of rain showers behind the
front.

As for Sunday, the trough will be onshore over southern oregon.

Looking at a lot of bufr soundings this afternoon, it looks like
most of the potential instability will be farther to our south in
northern california. One of the higher resolution models was
suggesting some storms firing up over oregon on Sunday, but it was
the outlier, so we're just going with a slight chance for storms
in northern california on Sunday.

Monday morning looks like a brief break from the action as high
pressure builds behind this trough. Another storm system will
slide down from the northwest on Monday afternoon and bring more
rain and snow to the area. Snow levels will be around 5000 to 5500
feet again, so higher mountains and peaks will accumulate some
more snow with the next system. Right now its looking like 3 to 6
inches for those elevations above 5500 feet.

This low then takes a deep dive down into southern california, so
we'll see a pretty cool and unstable air mass persist into
Tuesday. As a result, a chance for rain showers will continue.

The active weather pattern continues past Tuesday and is discussed
in more detail in the discussion below.

-smith
long term... Wednesday, may 22 through Saturday, apr 25, 2019...

the main upper trough that will be affecting us through the short
term will finally move east of us by Wednesday, and an upper ridge
builds offshore. We will likely remain in the northerly flow
between the two features through the extended forecast period.

However, unlike how it looked yesterday, the pattern is displaced
just enough west that we may be more under the influence of the
trough than the ridge. This means we will have some chance for
showers over most of our area each day. There is also some chance
of shortwaves diving into the back side of the trough enhancing
shower activity or, perhaps, even kicking off some thunderstorms
over our area from time to time.

-wright
aviation... For the 17 18z tafs...VFR will prevail for the taf
period with MVFR at times, poor visibilities, and partial terrain
obscuration within showers. Rain will move into the region
throughout the day and into the afternoon and evening hours. Then
precipitation should become more isolated and showery after 10 pm
tonight as some drier air moves in. Winds will be a challenge near
taf site mfr as they have been variable as of 11 am. They should
become stronger out of the south by the afternoon as stated in the
taf.

-smith
marine... Updated 200 pm pdt Saturday 18 may 2019... The latest ascat
pass shows the strongest winds over the southern waters with
possible gale force winds in southwest zone 376. Meanwhile winds are
weaker over the northern waters, specifically over the northeast
portion of marine zone 370 where they are below small craft.

The front is orientated from northwest to southeast and is just west
of the outer waters. Therefore, expect moderate to strong south
winds to continue with near gale force winds and very steep,
hazardous seas to all areas beyond roughly 2-5 nm from shore
(closest to shore near CAPE blanco). Closer to the coast, conditions
won't be quite as bad, but winds and steep, choppy seas will be
hazardous to small craft.

Conditions are expected to improve slightly this evening into Sunday
as the front finally moves onshore and dissipates. This will be
short lived as conditions are expected to to deteriorate once again
late Monday afternoon and evening as the next front approaches. It
will bring gusty south winds (that may reach gale force) through
Monday evening. Winds will diminish Monday night, but a heavier west
swell is expected to move into the waters Tuesday through Tuesday
night.

Offshore high pressure is forecast to return late next week, which
will turn the winds out of the north. There is somewhat better
agreement on the magnitude of the winds. At the very least were
looking at small craft conditions in the southern waters with a
chance for gales in the southern outer waters.

-petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 2 am pdt Sunday above 5000 feet in
the for caz082-083.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz350.

Btl czs jrs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 24 mi45 min 54°F8 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 28 mi69 min SE 4.1 G 6 52°F1006 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR21 mi49 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F46°F100%1006.4 hPa

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Last 24hrSE3S3SE4E5SE5E5SE43W8W7E5E3E5SE8W9S6SW4S5SE3SW3SE6SE4E4E6
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Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Sun -- 01:47 AM PDT     7.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:37 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:49 AM PDT     -1.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:14 PM PDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:36 PM PDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.977.26.75.43.61.70.1-0.9-1.2-0.60.62.33.955.65.44.63.52.51.91.82.43.6

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Sun -- 01:20 AM PDT     7.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:23 AM PDT     -1.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:47 PM PDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM PDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.376.964.52.70.9-0.5-1.2-1.1-0.21.32.94.45.25.454.132.11.722.84.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.