Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Creek, NY
May 7, 2024 2:55 PM EDT (18:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 5:08 AM Moonset 7:59 PM |
FXUS61 KALY 071724 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 124 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
After a warm and dry day today, there will be several chances for rain through this weekend. A few thunderstorms are possible late tonight and tomorrow, and a couple storms tomorrow afternoon could be on the stronger side. After another warm day tomorrow, temperatures trend cooler for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1:20 PM EDT...Upper ridging to our west and a ridge of high pressure at the surface building over our region are leading to subsidence and mainly clear skies. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s already, and temperatures should rise several more degrees as we head through the afternoon. With deep mixing to around 800 mb and continued sunshine, highs be mainly in the 70s, with some low 80s possible especially in the Mid Hudson Valley.
Dry weather continues through the first half of tonight. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures should drop off fairly quickly this evening after sunset, but will level off after midnight as cloud cover increases and winds pick up.
Overnight lows will likely end up in the 40s to 50s. The upper ridge weakens as it moves overhead tonight, and an upper low tracks into the Great Lakes. This feature will be associated with an area of low pressure at the surface, and will be responsible for quite a bit of convection upstream overnight. As the system's warm front approaches our region late tonight, this convection will move into our area between 7-10z from west to east, bringing chances for showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder with forecast soundings showing a few hundred joules of elevated cape. However, with a low-level inversion in place, the convection should remain elevated and thus severe weather does not look to be a concern overnight tonight despite increasing shear as the low-level jet strengthens.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast for tomorrow remains complicated, with a chance for some stronger storms...The day begins with the surface warm front continuing to lift northwards through our region. There will likely be lingering convection around to start the day associated with this warm front, especially north of I-90. Then, later in the afternoon, the upper low will open up as it tracks through upstate NY. The system's cold front will track through tomorrow evening, pre-frontal trough will track through the region tomorrow afternoon.
Behind the warm front, we should get into the warm sector with temperatures climbing well into the 70s, especially for areas along and south of I-90. With steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7C/km, this will lead to SBCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, with some pockets of locally higher values possible in the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England. Deep-layer shear also increased to 60-70 kts. While this parameter space is fairly impressive for our area, the best upper forcing will remain to the north and will not overlap with the best instability/shear. The best chance for any stronger storms appears to be across the Mid Hudson Valley, western MA, and western CT with any storms that develop with/ahead of the pre- frontal trough. Therefore, it looks like a fairly narrow window from very late morning through mid-afternoon where storms are possible. With mean flow perpendicular to the low-level forcing, and weak upper forcing, some discrete storms could develop in these areas ahead of the pre-frontal trough. The severe threat is conditional on convection initiating, but if any storms do develop the primary threats look to be gusty winds with steepening low-level lapse rates and mid- level drying. Mid- level dry air and long, straight hodographs also indicate the possibility of hail with any discrete storms that develop.
Accordingly, SPC has placed our area in a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow.
Behind the pre-frontal trough, winds shift to the west and drier low and mid-level air gets advected into the region, which will reduce instability and make convective initiation more difficult. A few additional showers/storms are possible later in the evening for the Mohawk Valley/western Adirondacks ahead of the true cold front, but the severe threat looks more limited at this time with waning instability due to drier air and loss of daytime heating.
Tomorrow night, lingering showers/thunderstorms come to and end in the evening/early in the overnight period as heights rise aloft. The cold front drops southwards across the region, but may not make it all the way to our southern border with OKX. For areas behind the front, northwesterly winds advect cooler and drier air into the region. Lows will generally be in the 40s (north) to 50s (south). Some patchy fog can't be ruled out either, especially ahead of the cold front.
Thursday through Friday...Thursday starts off dry but rain chances increase through the day. A broad, positively tilted upper trough will approach the Great Lakes, and there will be numerous upper shortwaves rotating around this upper trough. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the Ohio Valley off the Mid-Atlantic coast, bringing increased chances for showers to the region tomorrow afternoon through Friday. Due to the amount of small-scale shortwaves, there is quite a bit of forecast uncertainty, more than would be expected at this lead time. The best chance for showers will be for areas along and south of I-90, although some sources of guidance suggest showers could make it much further north. Chances for showers continue through Thursday night and into Friday, with a secondary surface low potentially tracking towards our region Friday. Will attempt to refine the timing and amount of precipitation over the coming days with guidance hopefully coming into better agreement. Daytime highs Thursday and Friday will be much cooler than the previous few days, with overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 Thursday night. Severe weather is not expected during the Thursday through Friday timeframe.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended forecast continues to feature wet and unsettled weather into the weekend. A sfc cyclone and its occluded front will continue to bring periods of rain to forecast area on Friday. The 500 hPa low closes off over southeast Ontario and the Great Lakes Region, as the longwave trough remains positively tilted. Damp and cool conditions prevail with max temps running about 10 degrees below normal with mid 40s to lower 50s over the the higher terrain and mid and upper 50s in the valleys. The mid and upper level low remains near or over eastern NY and New England Friday night into Saturday. The rain tapers to scattered showers Fri night. Some intervals of dry weather are possible on Saturday. However, the upstream long wave trough amplifies, as a sfc trough rotates around the cyclone near Nova Scotia. We can not rule out a chance of showers based on the latest medium range and ensemble guidance. Lows will be chilly with upper 30s to mid 40s over the forecast area Friday night. Highs on Saturday with abundant clouds and the chance of showers will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Some upper 40s can not be ruled out over the southern Dacks and southern Greens. Isolated to scattered showers will continue Saturday night with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
The 2nd half of the weekend features more inclement weather with a mid level trough over the Northeast, Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic States. A low pressure system and an occluded front will bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Temps will continue to run below normal with 50s to lower 60s for highs. The good news is that the trough begins to lift out of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday with some ridging trying to build in from the south Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers can not be ruled out, but some sunshine may be mixed with clouds with temps trending to normal mid May readings.
The latest Day 8-14 Outlook for 14-20 May 2024 from CPC is forecasting near normal temps with precipitation slightly above normal.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions for KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU until 08Z-10Z Wednesday as high pressure will be in control. Some showers/rain will move in ahead of a warm front and a mid level disturbance with MVFR/VFR visibilities and VFR ceilings. by around 15Z, the coverage of showers will decrease to scattered, so including VCSH at all TAF sites but ceilings will lower to MVFR and borderline IFR as a warm front approaches.
The winds will be northeast to northwest at less than 10 Kt through the afternoon...and become light to calm by this evening and persist at varying directions at 5 KT or less overnight. Winds become south to southeast at less than 6 Kt Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 124 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
After a warm and dry day today, there will be several chances for rain through this weekend. A few thunderstorms are possible late tonight and tomorrow, and a couple storms tomorrow afternoon could be on the stronger side. After another warm day tomorrow, temperatures trend cooler for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1:20 PM EDT...Upper ridging to our west and a ridge of high pressure at the surface building over our region are leading to subsidence and mainly clear skies. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s already, and temperatures should rise several more degrees as we head through the afternoon. With deep mixing to around 800 mb and continued sunshine, highs be mainly in the 70s, with some low 80s possible especially in the Mid Hudson Valley.
Dry weather continues through the first half of tonight. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures should drop off fairly quickly this evening after sunset, but will level off after midnight as cloud cover increases and winds pick up.
Overnight lows will likely end up in the 40s to 50s. The upper ridge weakens as it moves overhead tonight, and an upper low tracks into the Great Lakes. This feature will be associated with an area of low pressure at the surface, and will be responsible for quite a bit of convection upstream overnight. As the system's warm front approaches our region late tonight, this convection will move into our area between 7-10z from west to east, bringing chances for showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder with forecast soundings showing a few hundred joules of elevated cape. However, with a low-level inversion in place, the convection should remain elevated and thus severe weather does not look to be a concern overnight tonight despite increasing shear as the low-level jet strengthens.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast for tomorrow remains complicated, with a chance for some stronger storms...The day begins with the surface warm front continuing to lift northwards through our region. There will likely be lingering convection around to start the day associated with this warm front, especially north of I-90. Then, later in the afternoon, the upper low will open up as it tracks through upstate NY. The system's cold front will track through tomorrow evening, pre-frontal trough will track through the region tomorrow afternoon.
Behind the warm front, we should get into the warm sector with temperatures climbing well into the 70s, especially for areas along and south of I-90. With steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7C/km, this will lead to SBCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, with some pockets of locally higher values possible in the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England. Deep-layer shear also increased to 60-70 kts. While this parameter space is fairly impressive for our area, the best upper forcing will remain to the north and will not overlap with the best instability/shear. The best chance for any stronger storms appears to be across the Mid Hudson Valley, western MA, and western CT with any storms that develop with/ahead of the pre- frontal trough. Therefore, it looks like a fairly narrow window from very late morning through mid-afternoon where storms are possible. With mean flow perpendicular to the low-level forcing, and weak upper forcing, some discrete storms could develop in these areas ahead of the pre-frontal trough. The severe threat is conditional on convection initiating, but if any storms do develop the primary threats look to be gusty winds with steepening low-level lapse rates and mid- level drying. Mid- level dry air and long, straight hodographs also indicate the possibility of hail with any discrete storms that develop.
Accordingly, SPC has placed our area in a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow.
Behind the pre-frontal trough, winds shift to the west and drier low and mid-level air gets advected into the region, which will reduce instability and make convective initiation more difficult. A few additional showers/storms are possible later in the evening for the Mohawk Valley/western Adirondacks ahead of the true cold front, but the severe threat looks more limited at this time with waning instability due to drier air and loss of daytime heating.
Tomorrow night, lingering showers/thunderstorms come to and end in the evening/early in the overnight period as heights rise aloft. The cold front drops southwards across the region, but may not make it all the way to our southern border with OKX. For areas behind the front, northwesterly winds advect cooler and drier air into the region. Lows will generally be in the 40s (north) to 50s (south). Some patchy fog can't be ruled out either, especially ahead of the cold front.
Thursday through Friday...Thursday starts off dry but rain chances increase through the day. A broad, positively tilted upper trough will approach the Great Lakes, and there will be numerous upper shortwaves rotating around this upper trough. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the Ohio Valley off the Mid-Atlantic coast, bringing increased chances for showers to the region tomorrow afternoon through Friday. Due to the amount of small-scale shortwaves, there is quite a bit of forecast uncertainty, more than would be expected at this lead time. The best chance for showers will be for areas along and south of I-90, although some sources of guidance suggest showers could make it much further north. Chances for showers continue through Thursday night and into Friday, with a secondary surface low potentially tracking towards our region Friday. Will attempt to refine the timing and amount of precipitation over the coming days with guidance hopefully coming into better agreement. Daytime highs Thursday and Friday will be much cooler than the previous few days, with overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 Thursday night. Severe weather is not expected during the Thursday through Friday timeframe.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended forecast continues to feature wet and unsettled weather into the weekend. A sfc cyclone and its occluded front will continue to bring periods of rain to forecast area on Friday. The 500 hPa low closes off over southeast Ontario and the Great Lakes Region, as the longwave trough remains positively tilted. Damp and cool conditions prevail with max temps running about 10 degrees below normal with mid 40s to lower 50s over the the higher terrain and mid and upper 50s in the valleys. The mid and upper level low remains near or over eastern NY and New England Friday night into Saturday. The rain tapers to scattered showers Fri night. Some intervals of dry weather are possible on Saturday. However, the upstream long wave trough amplifies, as a sfc trough rotates around the cyclone near Nova Scotia. We can not rule out a chance of showers based on the latest medium range and ensemble guidance. Lows will be chilly with upper 30s to mid 40s over the forecast area Friday night. Highs on Saturday with abundant clouds and the chance of showers will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Some upper 40s can not be ruled out over the southern Dacks and southern Greens. Isolated to scattered showers will continue Saturday night with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
The 2nd half of the weekend features more inclement weather with a mid level trough over the Northeast, Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic States. A low pressure system and an occluded front will bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Temps will continue to run below normal with 50s to lower 60s for highs. The good news is that the trough begins to lift out of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday with some ridging trying to build in from the south Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers can not be ruled out, but some sunshine may be mixed with clouds with temps trending to normal mid May readings.
The latest Day 8-14 Outlook for 14-20 May 2024 from CPC is forecasting near normal temps with precipitation slightly above normal.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions for KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU until 08Z-10Z Wednesday as high pressure will be in control. Some showers/rain will move in ahead of a warm front and a mid level disturbance with MVFR/VFR visibilities and VFR ceilings. by around 15Z, the coverage of showers will decrease to scattered, so including VCSH at all TAF sites but ceilings will lower to MVFR and borderline IFR as a warm front approaches.
The winds will be northeast to northwest at less than 10 Kt through the afternoon...and become light to calm by this evening and persist at varying directions at 5 KT or less overnight. Winds become south to southeast at less than 6 Kt Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:03 AM EDT 5.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 PM EDT 4.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:58 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:03 AM EDT 5.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 PM EDT 4.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:58 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 3.3 |
| 3 am |
| 4.6 |
| 4 am |
| 5.6 |
| 5 am |
| 6 |
| 6 am |
| 5.6 |
| 7 am |
| 4.6 |
| 8 am |
| 3.5 |
| 9 am |
| 2.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT 5.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:40 AM EDT -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM EDT 4.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT 5.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:40 AM EDT -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM EDT 4.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 3.6 |
| 3 am |
| 4.8 |
| 4 am |
| 5.7 |
| 5 am |
| 6 |
| 6 am |
| 5.5 |
| 7 am |
| 4.4 |
| 8 am |
| 3.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 4 |
| 8 pm |
| 3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Burlington, VT,
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