Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Creek, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:40PM Monday June 26, 2017 6:26 PM EDT (22:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:13AMMoonset 10:51PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Creek, NY
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location: 43.71, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 261950
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
350 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will move across the region this
evening with mainly isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. An upper level low and a cold front will bring
additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Tuesday, with cooler than normal temperatures. High pressure
will build in from the mid atlantic region by Wednesday, but
temperatures will still run slightly below normal for late june.

A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring more
showers and possible thunderstorms for Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 345 pm edt, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue for areas mainly near and north of i-90. Thus far, a
few reports of pea size hail have occurred with some of the
taller convective elements.

Latest WV satellite imagery suggests one small upper level
impulse tracking E NE along the southern shore of lake ontario,
with another tracking E NE across lake erie. The combination of
these two impulses will allow a continuation of isolated to
scattered showers isolated thunderstorms to linger well into
this evening for areas mainly near and north of i-90, with much
less coverage, if any, to the south, which will be farther from
upper level dynamics and instability.

Again, any taller convective elements will continue to have the
potential to produce small hail locally gusty winds this
evening, especially if any cells merge into small line
segments clusters.

Convection should diminish toward and especially after midnight,
with partly cloudy skies continuing. Some patchy fog could form
in any areas which receive appreciable showers this evening.

It will be cool once again tonight, with lows mainly in the 50s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday night
Tuesday, the main upper level trough is expected to slowly
translate east across the region during the late morning and
afternoon hours. The combination of forcing ahead of this
feature, and developing low mid level instability with the cold
pool aloft and any breaks of morning sunshine should once again
contribute to scattered showers isolated thunderstorm to develop
in the late morning through early evening hours, with the
greatest coverage once again expected mainly from the i-90
corridor and points north. Also, with low wet bulb zero heights
and still relatively strong winds aloft evaporational cooling
potential, will continue mention of gusty winds hail with
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings suggests similar sb cape
values to today, generally reaching 400-800 j kg, perhaps
locally higher where dewpoint pooling occurs. Highs should reach
the lower mid 70s in valleys, with mainly 60s across higher
terrain, however temperatures will likely fall into the
50s lower 60s once the core of any showers storms pass by.

Tuesday night, any lingering convection should diminish fairly
quickly after sunset, with some clearing expected. Once again,
it will be cool, and some patchy fog will likely form in some
areas where appreciable showers occur prior to any clearing.

Lows mainly in the 50s, with some 40s possible, especially
across higher terrain.

Wednesday-Wednesday night, although the main upper level trough
should finally move east of the region, lingering cold air aloft
and possible weak disturbances rotating south southeast on the
west side of the departing trough could initiate isolated
showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across portions of the
southern adirondacks, the lake george region and southern vt in
the late morning through afternoon hours. Otherwise, mainly
sunny and a bit warmer, with highs reaching 75-80 in valleys,
and upper 60s to lower mid 70s across higher elevations. For
Wednesday night, clear to partly cloudy, with clouds more likely
to increase toward daybreak. Lows mainly in the 50s.

Thursday-Thursday night, increasingly active weather expected
once again, as a warm front approaches from the southwest. A
strong low mid level jet max, with h850 winds 40-50 kt, will
impinge on western areas by late morning, and most central and
northern areas by afternoon. There could be some form of an mcs
spreading across central northern areas late morning into the
afternoon, possibly in a weakening form, although new convection
could refire along its southern edge given the strong low level
warm advection. Trends will have to be watched. For now,
certainly expect showers and some embedded thunderstorms to
develop from W to E across the region during the late morning
through afternoon hours, with additional clusters of
showers thunderstorms potentially continuing well into Thursday
night, especially for areas near and north of i-90 where the
greatest forcing from warm advection should occur. Highs
Thursday mainly in the 70s, although some southern areas could
surge into the 80s late in the day depending on the placement of
the warm front, with mainly 60s expected for lows Thursday
night.

Long term Friday through Monday
Active weather is anticipated through the duration of the long term
period, with the potential for showers and or thunderstorms each day.

At the start of the long term period, our region will be situated
within w-sw flow in the low to mid levels, allowing 850 hpa temps
will have warmed up to about 16-18 degrees c. A flat ridge will be
in place over the area, and some subtle disturbances at 500 hpa will
be sliding through the fast flow aloft.

Despite no nearby surface boundaries, daytime heating will allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Friday, especially
across the higher elevations, and then drifting into the valley
areas. While not everywhere will see a shower or t-storm, there is
the chance for a brief one to occur just about everywhere across the
area, with temps rising into the 80s. It will also feel rather
muggy with dewpoints well into the 60s to near 70 f.

While the chance for showers t-storms may slightly diminish on
Friday night, there will be another good chance to see some showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday, especially for northern areas, as a
pre-frontal trough starts to approach the area from the west. With
the warm and humid airmass in place, will need to watch for some
locally strong to severe t-storms on Saturday afternoon, although
this will ultimately depend on the exact amount of instability and
shear in place. It looks to be another warm and muggy way with highs
well into the 80s once again.

As low pressure passes by to the north across southern canada, a
cold front will be passing through the area on Sunday. This will
allow for some additional showers and thunderstorms. If the timing
on the latest 12z GFS is correct, the best chance would be early in
the day, although this is certainly subject to change, as timing
differences can be expected this far out.

Behind the front, somewhat less humid air will start to work into
the area. Still cannot totally rule out a stray shower thanks to a
nearby upper level trough, but most places look dry behind the front
on Monday with temperatures near seasonable levels.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Showers from kalb to kgfl and kpsf through late afternoon but
widely scattered and including a vcsh at those sites through
about 01z- 03z. There could be a brief reduction of visibility
and lowering of ceilings to MVFR for 15-30 minutes in any shower
or isolated thunderstorm. Most of the shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity should stay north of kpou, so leaving out
any vcsh there. Will amend if a shower or storm develops and
moves toward any TAF site later this afternoon.

Once the showers end this evening, clouds become scattered
through the rest of the night. Scattered clouds above 3000 feet
trend to broken by 16z Tuesday. Visibilities predominantlyVFR
through the entire TAF period but indicating mifg at kgfl and
kpsf between 09z-13z until better fog assessment can be done
this evening and tonight.

West to northwest winds this afternoon around 10 kt could
briefly gust above 15 kt at times, but gust to 25 kt in any
isolated thunderstorms. Winds diminish to less than 6 kt
tonight. Winds become south to southwest Tuesday morning at less
than 10 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: isolated shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
An upper level disturbance will move across the region this
evening with mainly isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. An upper level low and a cold front will bring
additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Tuesday, with cooler than normal temperatures. High pressure
will build in from the mid atlantic region by Wednesday, but
temperatures will still run slightly below normal for late june.

A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring more
showers and possible thunderstorms for Thursday.

The rh values will recover to 85-100 percent overnight, dropping
to values in Tuesday afternoon will be in the 35 to 60 percent
range.

The winds will from the southwest to west at 5 to 10 mph
tonight. The winds will increase from the southwest to northwest
at 5 to 15 mph Tuesday.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrological problems are anticipated over the
next several days. Scattered showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected this evening through Tuesday, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours, as a series of
disturbances impact the region with an upper low. Basin average
rainfall amounts will generally be a tenth to a quarter of an
inch in some locations.

A brief period of mainly dry weather is expected most of
Wednesday into Wednesday night with ridging from the south. An
active pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend with showers
and thunderstorms possible with increasing humidity levels.

Rainfall amounts will vary based on where any convection
occurs. The most widespread potential rainfall is expected
Thursday and Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl wasula
near term... Kl
short term... Kl
long term... Frugis
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Kl wasula
hydrology... Kl wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY32 mi33 minSE 510.00 miOvercast61°F55°F84%1015 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW5SW4W5S5W6SW5SW8SW6W4CalmCalmS4CalmW5CalmSW7W7SW11
G16
SW8S11SW7
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N12SE5
1 day agoW9
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CalmSW3CalmS4SW7SW6W6CalmCalmS5CalmCalmS3S7S8S11--SW12
G18
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2 days agoS5S4S7S9S5CalmS5S8S8S6S5S5S5S6Calm5W8NW11
G16
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NW17
G22
W9
G23
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 01:40 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:23 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0.1-0.20.82.54.15.25.85.84.93.62.41.40.3-0.6-0.40.82.33.54.34.74.33.32.3

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     5.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:13 PM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.3-0.30.82.64.15.15.75.54.53.22.11-0.1-0.8-0.50.92.33.44.24.54.132

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.