Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Creek, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 7:19 PM EST (00:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 8:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Creek, NY
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location: 43.71, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 202123
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
423 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
As a low pressure system approaches the area, light snow
will overspread the region through this evening before changing to a
wintry mix overnight. Precipitation will come to an end by daybreak
on Thursday, leading to milder and mainly dry weather through
Saturday morning. Another storm system could bring a wintry mix
changing to rain Saturday night into Sunday.

Near term through Thursday
Winter weather advisory remains in effect for eastern new york
and western new england through early Thursday morning...

light snow has begun across the southern reaches of the forecast
area. There are additional radar returns further north but this
is only virga as the atmospheric column continues to saturate.

As the afternoon and evening progresses, light snow will spread
northward, with 1 to 3 inches possible across the entire area.

Snow will then transition to a period of sleet and freezing rain
from south to north after about 8 pm this evening and continue
through the overnight period. Precipitation should remain
fairly light and will likely transition to more of a freezing
drizzle before ending by 7am Thursday. Some light precipitation
may linger across the adirondacks throughout the day but all
other locations will transition to dry weather as skies attempt
to clear. Best chance for sunshine looks to be south and east of
albany Thursday afternoon. Winds will also become gusty,
especially in areas that see some sunshine, with wind gusts up
to 30 to 35 mph during the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures will turn much milder with highs expected near 50
degrees in the mid-hudson valley and in the upper 30s in the
dacks.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
High pressure builds back into the region on Friday which will
result in dry and mild weather through the day Saturday. Friday
will feature plentiful sunshine with highs in the mid 30s to mid
40s. Friday night, temperatures dip into the low teens to low
20s under mostly clear skies.

Clouds increase on Saturday as high pressure shifts off to the
east and as the next storm system approaches the area.

It will be another mild day with temperatures generally in the
mid 30s to lower 40s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
An upper-level closed low and associated surface low will traverse
the great lakes region Sunday into Monday. The surface low will be
strong with its central pressure possibly dropping into the 970-980
hpa range. Guidance differs on the exact scenario that plays out
over our region for Sunday into Monday. Some guidance lifts a warm
front through the region followed by a robust cold front pushing
from west to east. Other guidance suggests a similar scenario, plus
rapid cyclogenesis of a secondary low along the northeast coastline.

All guidance suggests a widespread quarter-to-half inch of QPF with
the system and a rapid transition from snow sleet freezing rain to
all rain. Wintry accumulations look very limited at this time since
temperatures at the surface (upper 40s to low 50s) and aloft will
mostly be above freezing and quickly push into the region. The
highest impact from this system will likely be the strong winds on
the back end of the strong surface low. A strong pressure gradient
will be in place as impressive pressure rise fall couplets progress
across the region late Sunday through Monday. Forecast soundings
show potential for deep mixing to around 700-hpa with a strong low-
level jet around 60 knots in place. Wind advisories will likely be
needed for the Sunday evening through Monday time period with wind
gusts up to 50 mph expected across the mohawk valley south to the
catskills, southern capital region, southern vermont and berkshire
county in massachusetts.

Temperatures will either hold steady in the upper 20s to low 30s or
slowly fall throughout the entire day Monday as strong cold-air
advection will be in place. There could be some lingering snow
showers across the region as well. High pressure will build into the
region on Tuesday and possibly linger through Wednesday, but there
are some indications that a clipper system could quickly traverse
the region on Wednesday bringing some light precipitation to the
area. Temperatures will be near normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Moisture continues to spread into the region from the south as
high pressure shifts east. Virga appearing on area radars
suggests column is beginning to saturate. This process should
occur from south to north with flight categories falling to
borderline MVFR ifr in light snow beginning at kpou around 20z,
kalb kpsf around 22z, and kgfl around 00z. The snow should
begin mixing with sleet after around 3-5 hours from the time it
starts, then to freezing rain 1-2 hours later. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for some freezing drizzle during
lighter periods of the snow. This will be addressed in future
amendments if it appears plausible. CIGS vsby in the overnight
period should hover near the border of MVFR ifr. As the steadier
precipitation tapers off around 10-12z thu, some patchy drizzle
will be possible (perhaps freezing drizzle at kgfl where temps
will remain below freezing) which could allow for a period of
ifr conditions through around 14-15z. CIGS vsby should begin to
improve after 15z as diurnal heating and the approach of drier
air begins to mix out the low-level moisture.

Winds will generally be from the south at 10 kt or less through
the overnight period, shifting to west-southwest at 5 to 15 kt
with some gusts in excess of 20 kt late Thursday morning into
the afternoon. A brief period of marginal low-level wind shear
conditions are expected between about 02-10z, although southerly
surface winds at kalb may be elevated enough to avoid llws
concerns.

Outlook...

Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Likely ra... Sleet.

Sunday: high operational impact. Breezy likely shra... Ra.

Hydrology
Hydrological impacts are not expected through at least Saturday.

Light snow impacting the region this evening will transition to
a wintry mix overnight tonight. Liquid equivalent amounts of
generally a quarter to a half an inch are expected. Temperatures
are expected to run a bit above normal Thursday into the
weekend.

Another period of rain or mixed precipitation is possible
Saturday night into Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for nyz047-
058>060-063>066.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz038-040-048>054-061.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for nyz032-033-039-041>043-082>084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis...

near term... Jlv
short term... Kl jlv
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Thompson
hydrology... Jlv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY32 mi26 minN 010.00 miOvercast24°F12°F62%1027.5 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S34CalmSE3S4CalmS3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE7S10S10S8S6S4S4N4
2 days agoNE5N5N4N5NE3NE4NE5NE5NE3E4N8E4E4N5N10NE53NE5E7E9NE10NE9NE7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Wed -- 05:29 AM EST     5.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:00 PM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     5.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.50.31.93.34.354.94.12.91.910.1-0.30.31.93.64.95.75.95.242.71.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 05:21 AM EST     5.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:50 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     5.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.50.52.13.54.454.942.81.80.9-0-0.30.52.13.855.75.85.13.82.51.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.