Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Creek, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:21PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:45 PM EDT (17:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:05AMMoonset 9:24AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Creek, NY
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location: 43.71, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 231727
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
127 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A low pressure system will move across the region today and this
evening bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms. There is
the possibility some storms could become strong to severe. It
will be breezy across the area behind the system for Thursday
night and Friday. More wet weather expected Saturday afternoon
and night as another low pressure system approaches and moves
through.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 125 pm edt, a cluster of showers and embedded
thunderstorms was located across the schoharie valley, mohawk
valley and southwest adirondacks, and tracking east northeast.

This will impact the greater capital region, eastern mohawk
valley, lake george saratoga region and southern vermont over
the next 2 hours. Locally heavy downpours, some gusty winds, and
occasional cloud to ground lightning will be possible as this
cluster passes through. This cluster of showers storms may be
tied to an elevated warm front (within the h850-925 layer)
lifting northeast through the region.

Meanwhile, the band of showers thunderstorms which propagated
east from western nys earlier this morning was located across
central nys, albeit in a much weakened form. The remnants of
this band should track across the region as well through mid
afternoon.

The waves of showers embedded thunderstorms through mid
afternoon should act to reduce instability levels this
afternoon, with wet bulb cooling of the boundary layer occurring
as rain passes through with surface dewpoints initially in the
50s. Temps may fall back into the 60s for many areas through mid
afternoon as the showers occur.

Eventually, the cold occluded front which is currently tracking
through southwest ontario and northwest ohio will rapidly
advance east southeast through late afternoon. Some recovery is
expected across central western nys behind the initial wave of
convection, although this will be past peak heating. So
instability will be reduced. However, kinematics will be
strengthening later this afternoon, as will overall upper level
dynamics as the left exit region of a cyclonically curved upper
level jet MAX impinges on the region (especially northern
areas).

So, a break in convection is expected later this afternoon,
before renewed chances possibly develop as any upstream
convection tied closer to the cold front rapidly moves
east southeast. Will have to watch trends this evening
upstream, in case a qlcs forms and accelerates east southeast
into the mohawk valley SW adirondacks and capital region.

It will be breezy at times through sunset, with south winds
(outside of any convection) may gust 25-35 mph.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
Tonight, cold front will continue moving across, with the
possibility of showers gusty thunderstorms through around 10 pm.

Thereafter, expect a period of clearing, with gusty
west northwest winds developing later at night in the wake of
the front. Some gusts could reach up to 35 mph toward daybreak.

Lows falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s for most areas by
daybreak.

Friday will be breezy with northwesterly winds gusting up to
around 35 mph in the wake of the system. Temperatures will be
near seasonable levels for late may however the winds will make
it feel cooler. Mainly fair weather is expected with isolated
showers mainly in the morning across the higher terrain as we
are under cyclonic flow. Heights will begin to rise in the
afternoon with ridging building in across the region Friday
night and Saturday. A cooler Friday night with lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s.

The fair weather will be short-lived as another low pressure
system approaches. This system will not be as strong with the
surface low and its associated short wave passing farther to the
north close to hudson bay Saturday night. However, what is expected
is another round of showers beginning in the afternoon along
with some thunderstorms mainly during the evening hours. Highs
Saturday mid 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 60s Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
The period starts out on Sunday with a cold front moving
eastward across the region and zonal flow aloft. Pwats forecast
to be lower than Saturday along with little upper level
support, so expecting only widely scattered showers. Given
sufficient heating, there would be enough instability to mention
at least a slight chance of thunderstorms. Will side more
towards the ECMWF with the cold front pushing through by
evening. Temps will be quite warm ahead of the front, with the
hudson valley possible reaching 80 or slightly higher. GFS has
another front wave moving through late Sunday, which appears to
be an outlier compared to other guidance.

Dry conditions expected Sunday night into Monday (memorial day),
as high pressure builds in from the west. Not much change in
temperature compared to Sunday, as upper level heights will
actually be rising, so we are forecasting slightly above normal
temps and comfortable humidity levels for memorial day.

As a fairly strong cyclone tracks NE across the upper great lakes
Monday night, a warm front will approach our area. This could
result in some showers developing late, especially for areas
north and west of albany. Models in good agreement indicating
our region getting into a warm sector on Tuesday, as the cyclone
tracks into SE canada. It will be increasingly warm and humid
in the warm sector. A potential pre-frontal trough approaching
from the west could produce scattered showers storms, especially
during the afternoon. Chances for showers thunder continues
Tuesday night as the pre-frontal trough moves through.

More unsettled weather is expected for Wednesday, as we remain
in a warm and increasingly unstable air mass. It will feel more
like summer with highs possibly into the 80s in the hudson
valley, with humid conditions. Diurnal convection looks
possible, especially if a cold front approaching from the west
gets close enough to organize showers storms.

Aviation 17z Thursday through Monday
Several bands clusters of showers thunderstorms will move across
the TAF sites through early this evening, with best chances at
kgfl and kalb over the next few hours. A few heavy downpours and
gusty winds will be possible as thunderstorms pass through.

Another round of showers thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as the main cold front moves through (most likely
between 00z-02z fri). In the wake of the front, expect mainly
dry conditions later tonight.

On Friday, as an upper level disturbance passes through,
isolated showers sprinkles will be possible after 15z fri.

As for flight conditions, outside of showers thunderstorms,
mainlyVFR conditions are expected, although MVFR CIGS will
remain possible at kpsf through 20z thu. Areas of MVFR ifr will
be possible within showers thunderstorms.

South to southwest winds will average 8-13 kt with some gusts of
25-30 kt this afternoon evening. Winds will shift into the
west northwest behind the cold front, with speeds of 8-12 kt and
gusts of 20-30 kt possible, especially at kalb and kpsf.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and
near any thunderstorms through this evening.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Memorial day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Southerly winds with gusts up to around 25 mph this afternoon...

\northwesterly winds with gusts up to around 35 mph Friday...

humid conditions develop today with showers and scattered
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening. Mainly
fair weather Friday with minimum relative humidity values only
in the mid 40s to mid 50s during the afternoon. Another round of
storms expected Saturday afternoon and night.

Hydrology
Showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
as a low pressure system approaches and moves across the
region. Rainfall amounts of 1 4 to 1 2 an inch are expected with
locally higher amounts in some thunderstorms. Some ponding of
water in poor drainage, urban and low lying areas is possible.

The storms will be moving quite fast so no significant
hydrological impacts are expected at this time.

Another sound of wet weather is expected Saturday afternoon and
night with another fast moving low pressure system approaches
and moves across the region.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa kl
near term... Kl
short term... Iaa
long term... Jpv
aviation... Kl jpv
fire weather... Iaa
hydrology... Iaa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY32 mi52 minVar 4 G 1410.00 miFair73°F55°F55%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E8NE7E9E4E4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S12S10S9SW11
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N4CalmNW5NW6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N9N8NE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 03:26 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.20.60.71.83.24.45.25.55.34.43.22.31.50.600.51.72.93.74.24.33.7

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.71.10.60.823.44.55.25.55.24.23.12.21.40.400.71.93.13.84.24.23.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.