Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 4:14 AM   Moonset 5:12 PM

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LMZ669 Expires:202405060315;;680997 Fzus63 Kmkx 051928 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 228 pm cdt Sun may 5 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
high pressure of 30.1 inches will move over lake michigan this evening and lake huron tomorrow. Winds will be 10 knots or less and variable later as the high moves overhead then become easterly on Monday.
on Monday night, winds will become east to southeast around 20 knots over the southern half of lake michigan. A front will move through Tuesday evening bringing south to southwest winds to the south half of the lake. Winds will be variable Tuesday night and Wednesday as the boundary lingers across the lake. East winds will increase Wednesday night and Thursday as low pressure of 29.5 inches moves south of the lake.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-060315- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 228 pm cdt Sun may 5 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening, then becoming northeast after midnight becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Showers in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt backing to southeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wednesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Thursday - North winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Friday - North winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ600
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FXUS63 KMKX 051502 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1002 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times Tuesday through Thursday. Some storms could be strong on Tuesday.



UPDATE
Issued 950 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected today. No changes to the forecast.

Marquardt

SHORT TERM
Issued 318 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today through Monday:

Some fog remains possible this morning in patchy spots owing the wetting rains from yesterday evening, building subsidence, and light winds. The Wisconsin River Valley will be the most favored region for fog development.

Otherwise today, high pressure will continue to shift east and settle over the Upper Great Lakes by tonight. Clear skies and full solar insolation should lead to a well mixed boundary layer and fairly low dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will be light out of the north, becoming more light and variable this afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 60s to near 70, generally west of Waukesha, Washington, Racine, and Kenosha counties, as the weak pressure gradient will allow a lake breeze to start fairly early in the afternoon and push inland, keeping highs in the mid 60s closer to the lakeshore.

Temperatures will cool into the 40s tonight under mostly clear skies and continuing subsidence. Another round of fog in the Wisconsin River Valley may occur.

Monday will be another beautiful day, with slightly warmer daytime highs inland in the low to mid 70s as ridging aloft amplifies. Prevailing winds will be off of the lake from the east as high pressure moves toward Lake Huron, keeping conditions cooler again in lakeshore counties and their westward neighbors.

CMiller

LONG TERM
Issued 428 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Monday night through Saturday:

WAA and an occluded front are expected to approach Wisconsin Monday night as a low deepens over Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread southwest to northeast into the state early Tuesday morning into the post dawn hours. There are two camps of solutions for Tuesday and Wednesday as the NAM and 00z ECMWF favor precipitation coming through as a solid line along the occluded front through the daytime hours on Tuesday, while the GFS favors a dying line in the morning with more redevelopment in the afternoon. This in turn then influences the storm potential on Wednesday.

If the ECMWF/NAM solution verifies, much of Tuesday afternoon could be dry following the passage of the occluded front and its precipitation by the early afternoon. Without a blow- up of precipitation Tuesday afternoon, favorable dew points may be pushed into central IL, then return north on Wednesday behind a warm front as a surface low deepens over the middle Mississippi Valley. EPS ensembles show a strong wave aloft and more favorable flow on Wednesay, and the ECMWF shows convection blowing up along the warm front just south of the WI/IL border Wednesday afternoon.

The GFS has the precipitation lifting north Tuesday morning/afternoon with redevelopment during the mid to late afternoon over southern WI. Shear looks like it would be marginal, but the GFS supports steep mid level lapse rates, hinting toward a severe hail threat, provided a storm establishes itself. This convection Tuesday afternoon would then give a reinforcing push to dew points southward down to the Ohio River Valley. The GFS then also forms a low Wednesday, but the warm front only rises as far north as central Illinois, and Wednesday storm chances stay well south.

With all of these confounding factors, it remains too early to put a definitive label on the storm threat for Tuesday and Wednesday, but trends will be monitored for better confidence with each successive model run.

A weak sfc trough may then linger for Thursday providing additional rain chances. Beyond, slight chances for rain linger into the weekend as a weak upper trough passes over the Upper Great Lakes.

CMiller

AVIATION
Issued 950 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. East winds will be 10 knots or less. A lake breeze will move inland during the day.
Mostly clear skies are expected.

Marquardt

MARINE
Issued 324 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure will spread into the Upper Great Lakes Region and linger through Monday. This high pressure will bring light northerlies to the lake this morning, with winds growing light and variable over the lake this afternoon into tonight. Monday, winds look to become easterly at times, but lack of a strong pressure gradient over the area will mean that the east winds will be interspersed with boughts of light and variable conditions.

Monday night, winds will grow southeasterly and breezy to 20 knots over the southern half of Lake Michigan by Tuesday morning. Winds then come around to westerly after a front lifts north over the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. A brief period of Small Craft Advisory criteria waves may occur Tuesday morning.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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