Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:23PM Saturday November 18, 2017 7:17 PM CST (01:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:39AMMoonset 5:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 238 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..North gales to 45 kt becoming northwest diminishing to gales to 35 kt. Chance of rain this evening...then chance of rain and snow overnight. Waves 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft subsiding to 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Chance of snow in the morning...then slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Monday night..Southwest gales to 40 kt. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Tuesday..West gales to 35 kt becoming northwest to 30 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ669 Expires:201711190500;;610721 FZUS63 KLOT 182038 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 238 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.2 inches is centered over northern Indiana this afternoon and will lift to Lake Ontario late this evening deepening to 29.0 inches. The low will lift into Quebec Sunday further deepening to 28.8 inches. High pressure of 30.3 inches will build across the central and southern Great Plains Sunday and shift to the southeastern U.S. by Monday. Low pressure of 29.2 inches will move from southern Saskatchewan early Monday to Quebec late Tuesday. Broad high pressure of 30.4 inches will build across the central and northern Great Plains Tuesday and gradually shift to the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-190500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 182344
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
544 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017

Update The main upper trough axis will exit early this evening
but another shortwave trough will dig sewd from canada, reaching
lake mi by 12z sun. The shortwave and continued cyclonic flow will
help maintain bkn-ovc stratus tnt but enough dry air should arrive
during the daylight hours of Sun am for clearing. Cold temps
expected by late tnt and continuing into sun.

Aviation(00z tafs) Broken MVFR CIGS will remain over much of
srn wi tnt with clearing around sunrise or shortly after on sun.

Brisk nwly winds will continue tnt and gradually subside and
become wly on sun.

Prev discussion (issued 312 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017)
short term...

tonight through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

Precipitation has ended across the entire area as of early
afternoon. Gusty north to northwest winds will continue into
tonight, as low pressure lifts north into the eastern great
lakes. Low clouds should slowly clear from west to east tonight,
as heights rise behind the passing mid level wave.

Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s overnight, as
colder air filters in from the north.

High pressure pushing across the southern us will allow winds to
become westerly, and eventually southwesterly Sunday. Sunday looks
cool and dry, with highs in the low to mid 30s.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is high.

Models are in pretty good agreement with trends during this
period. Northwest flow at 500 mb on Sunday night becomes more
zonal by Monday. The air column is rather dry during this period,
so will continue the dry forecast. Below normal temperatures are
expected to linger over the area.

Warm air advection with gusty southwest winds develops Sunday
night into Monday night, which will allow for a mild day on
Monday. A cold front slides southeast through the area later
Monday night, with strong cold air advection into Tuesday on
northwest winds. Thus, colder temperatures return for Tuesday.

A broad 500 mb trough slides southeast through the great lakes
region Tuesday, with strong differential cyclonic vorticity
advection passing through. Things look dry at this point, with
just some clouds moving through later Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

Long term...

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is high.

Models are generally showing 500 mb flow remaining northwesterly
during this period. High pressure slides southeast from the
northern plains into the middle mississippi river valley Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This should continue to bring quiet weather
to the area. Below normal temperatures should continue as well.

Wednesday night through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Gfs ECMWF are showing a cold front sliding southeast through the
area Wednesday night or Thursday morning. There are 500 mb
vorticity maxima within northwest flow that slide through the area
with the cold front. The ECMWF is the only one with QPF over the
area, with the GFS to the north. For now, will keep Wednesday
night into Thursday dry.

Another low passes north of the region Friday night on the
gfs canadian, with the ECMWF bringing the low closer to the area
later Friday night into Saturday. The ECMWF has much more QPF and
upward vertical motion with this system than the other models.

Kept the consensus blended pops and temperatures for this period.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

cigs will slowly improve this afternoon into tonight, eventually
beginning to clear late tonight into Sunday. Winds will be the
main concern, with gusty northwest winds continuing overnight.

Winds will become westerly and eventually southwesterly Sunday.

Marine...

gale conditions will continue across the nearshore waters into
tonight. Winds may be a bit marginal near the shore, but will be
stronger near the open waters. Wave heights will peak this
evening, and slowly diminish heading into tomorrow. A small craft
advisory will likely be needed with the expiration of the gale
warning late tonight.

Winds will become westerly and then southwesterly Sunday into
Monday. Small craft advisory conditions may again be met Monday
night into Tuesday, as another frontal boundary approaches the
region.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale warning until midnight cst tonight for lmz643>646.

Update... Gehring
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... Boxell
Sunday night through Saturday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi77 min NW 17 G 19 38°F 1004.8 hPa (+3.2)30°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi37 min N 11 G 21 38°F 1006.4 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi37 min N 24 G 35 41°F 1003 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi24 minNW 12 G 2110.00 miOvercast36°F28°F76%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SW4CalmCalmNW4N3NW5N10N7N8N6N8N10N7N10N13N12
G20
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1 day agoN4NE4CalmE3NW3CalmE6E4CalmSE3S5S8S11S15
G20
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G28
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2 days agoW17
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G24
W9
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NW11
G20
NW12NW10
G20
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G21
N13NW9NW9NW12NW11N10N9N4NE7NE5NE7E5E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.