Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday November 15, 2018 10:07 PM CST (04:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 832 Pm Cst Thu Nov 15 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west to 30 kt. Slight chance of snow through early evening, then chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Friday..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain and snow likely overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Rain and snow likely in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 20 kt veering to south. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ669 Expires:201811161030;;369435 FZUS63 KMKX 160232 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 832 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure of 29.7 inches extending from Lake Superior to southeast Minnesota will move across the northern Great Lakes tonight, and into eastern Ontario, Canada and western Quebec, Canada on Friday. Southerly winds over Lake Michigan will veer southwest, then west late tonight and become breezy. Brisk west to northwest winds will then prevail on Friday across the entire lake. Another trough of low pressure will track south of Lake Michigan on Saturday with brisk northerly winds over the lake. High pressure of 30.6 inches will then move south across the Great Plains for the weekend with breezy westerly winds developing over Lake Michigan for Sunday...especially over the north. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-161030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 160223
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
823 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018

Update
Radars upstream suggest the snow will arrive a bit earlier than
expected. Have made some adjustments along those lines. Otherwise,
it still looks like all snow during the core of the heavier
snowfall period, which should only last an hour or two. As we lose
moisture in the dendrite zone as the snow is tapering off, we
could see a brief period of freezing drizzle. All this is handled
well in the current forecast. No big changes needed at this time,
other than some timing adjustments.

Marine
An area of low pressure tracking across lake superior will drag a
cold front across the lake michigan waters overnight. Look for the
gusty southwest winds to veer to the west then northwest by
sunrise Friday morning. Winds will remain elevated through the day
on Friday, diminishing Friday night as a secondary weak trough of
low pressure moves through. That trough will bring snow to the
region later Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure
builds in for the remainder of the weekend, bringing a west to
northwest flow. Those winds could be somewhat strong on Sunday,
especially over the northern half of the lake.

For the nearshore waters, a small craft advisory is in effect from
4 am through 6 pm Friday due to the elevated west to northwest
winds. The highest waves will be out toward open water.

Prev discussion (issued 502 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018)
update...

the snow across the southeast has ended. We'll see quiet
conditions through at least mid evening, before the next fast
moving wave arrives from the northwest. The 18z guidance isn't
offering anything new with respect to precip trends types, so the
forecast is on track. Radar up around minneapolis is showing an
expanding area of light snow as strong low level warm air
advection results in deeper saturation. The snow tonight will
arrive fast and move out just about as fast. We're only looking at
about 2 to 3 hours of snow associated with the system cold front.

This will all happen as most of southern wisconsin sleeps, between
midnight and 6 am Friday. The forecast looks good for now.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

the lingering CIGS across the southeast (mainlyVFR) will clear
out early this evening. Then look forVFR conditions across the
entire area until about 06z Friday. A fast approaching cold front
from the northwest will bring an area of light snow across
southern wisconsin between 06-12z Friday. The peak of the snow
will only last about 2 hours, followed by a few hours of light
stuff. Total accums could reach 1 2 inch. We may see some patchy
freezing drizzle on the back side of the snow, but that threat
would only last about an hour. MVFR with patchy ifr CIGS will
arrive with the snow and linger through the morning on Friday.

Eventually, drier air works in to lift conditions toVFR levels
Friday afternoon. Another fast moving system brings more snow
later Friday night into Saturday morning. That one could bring a
few inches of accumulation.

Prev discussion... (issued 258 pm cst Thu nov 15 2018)
short term...

tonight and Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The moderate frontogenetic snow band from racine to kenosha and
southward continues to gradually weaken with dissipation by late
afternoon expected. Two to three inches of wet snow will likely
be the storm total.

A 110 kt nwly upper jet over the NRN high plains will dig a
strong shortwave trough across SRN wi late tnt along with the
passage of a cold front. A period of light snow is expected with a
low probability of a brief period of light freezing drizzle on the
backside of the snow. Snow accums of 1 2 inch or less are
expected. Breezy wnwly winds and cold advection will prevail with
skies becoming partly cloudy for the afternoon.

Long term...

Friday night and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium:
a shortwave is expected to move through Friday night into early
Saturday, likely bringing some accumulating snow to the forecast
area. There is increasing confidence of a swath of 1 to 3 inches
in the area during this time period. The lingering problem is
pinning down where this swath will set up. Models are still
struggling a bit with the track of the system, though a blend of
the various solutions takes aim at the forecast area. Models are
in good agreement that the system will be weakening, so the best
chance for higher amounts will be in the west. Still time for the
details of this to change, especially considering the how much the
models have been bouncing around the last few days.

Below normal temps will return Saturday behind the departing
system.

Sunday and through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium:
overall, it looks dry Sunday through Wednesday with high pressure
in control for much of the time. Models do show the potential for
a weak wave or two during this time period, but not enough
agreement among models to go with much in the way of precip
chances.

Temps around 10 degrees below normal Sunday and Monday are
expected to recover to near normal by Wednesday.

Aviation(21z tafs)... CIGS under 1 kft and vsbys of 1 4-1 2sm in
the mdt to heavy snow over racine and kenosha will gradually
improve through the afternoon.VFR conditions expected for this
evening followed by another round of light snow and perhaps a
brief period of freezing drizzle for early morning fri. CIGS will
fall to 1-3 kft and vsbys of 2-5sm with the light snow early fri
am. CIGS of 1-3 kft will linger through Fri am and then scatter
for the afternoon.

Marine... A small craft advisory is in effect for breezy wnwly
winds with the passage of a cold front beginning at 4 am cst Fri and
lasting until noon south of port washington, but continuing until
6 pm cst north of port washington. Over the open lakes, the
passage of the cold front will result in west to northwest winds
of 25 to 30 knots through fri.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 4 am to noon cst Friday for lmz644>646.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 6 pm cst Friday for lmz643.

Update... Davis
tonight Friday and aviation marine... Gehring
Friday night through Thursday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi68 min SSW 12 G 14 34°F 1010.3 hPa (-1.4)28°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi28 min SW 7 G 8.9 32°F 1011.2 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 43 mi38 min SE 2.9 G 7 31°F 28°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi28 min SE 7 G 9.9 32°F 1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi75 minSSW 77.00 miOvercast31°F28°F89%1010.7 hPa

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Last 24hrSW3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S9S5S7S5S10S10S6S5SW6S6S7SW6
1 day agoNW6NW6NW6NW4NW5NW3NW4NW4W4NW5N7N3NE4--S6S5SE6S7S3S4CalmCalmS3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.