Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 10:03 PM   Moonset 6:21 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LMZ669 Expires:202404260930;;378984 Fzus63 Kmkx 260202 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 902 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
light winds continue as high pressure around 30.4 inches gradually slides into the eastern great lakes tonight. Meanwhile a low pressure around 29.3 inches develops in the central plains overnight and slides east bringing, increasing southeasterly winds across lake michigan for Friday. Expect stronger southeasterly winds with a potential for a few, brief gale force gusts to persist as the low pressure lifts into mn Friday night and Saturday. This low will weaken as it lifts further northeast through the day Saturday before another, stronger low pressure system around 29.5 inches develops over the plains and lifts northeast across the great lakes region Sunday into Monday. This looks to bring another round of gusty winds to the lake.
showers and Thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Sunday night, with the best chances for Thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday afternoon and night, and Sunday afternoon and night.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-260930- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 902 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Friday night - Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south. Showers in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Saturday - South winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Saturday night - South winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Sunday - South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Sunday night - South winds to 30 kt. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Monday - South winds to 30 kt. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 260251 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 951 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Active pattern Friday afternoon through this weekend.
Multiple rounds of showers/storms will result in locally heavy rainfall.

- Severe storm risk possible Friday through this weekend, with uncertainty remaining in exact timing and placement.

- Additional chances for precipitation mid to late week next week.

UPDATE
Issued 940 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Current forecast remains on track with patchy frost possible along the Kettle Moraine and west-central WI as temps dip into the mid to upper 30s with light winds. Elsewhere looks to remain warm enough to limit frost development. Otherwise, expecting our active pattern to begin Friday with showers spreading in along the low-level WAA through the afternoon with a narrow window for some elevated stronger storms Friday evening/night with a lifting warm front.

Wagner

SHORT TERM
Issued 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

Low pressure deepening in the lee of the Colorado Rockies overnight will increase the PGF across southern Wisconsin as a warm frontal feature lifts slowly towards the region. Expecting mainly dry conditions throughout the overnight hours, although cloud cover and southeasterly winds are expected to increase from west to east overnight into Friday morning.

The first rain shower activity looks to be lacking in CAPE and favorable lapse rates, so expecting an initial round of light to moderate rainfall Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Late Friday afternoon into Friday evening as the surface warm front lifts northward into central Wisconsin and low pressure pushes northeastward into the northern Great Plains, MUCAPE above 500 J/kg and mid level lapse rates (700 to 500 mb) between 6.5 and 7 degrees C/km may lead to elevated thunderstorms hail cores. 0 to 3 km helicity is also quite high (300 to 500 m2/s2), but a thick stable layer near the surface should keep convection elevated. Mid level lapse rates continue to increase overnight to 7 to 7.5 degrees C/km, while MUCAPE in far southern Wisconsin increases to near 1000 J/kg. However, the warm front progressing farther northward will remove a trigger from the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. Any convection that does develop will be isolated during this time period.

MH

LONG TERM
Issued 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

Saturday, some clearing is possible as southern Wisconsin remains in the warm sector. GFS indicates potential for an outflow boundary from overnight Plains convection to produce thunderstorms across southwestern Wisconsin as early as Saturday morning, although confidence in this feature is low due to the necessitation of precursory convection. Southerly winds and increasing temperatures within the warm sector will result in high temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoint temperatures in the lower 60s. Plenty of MUCAPE (global models are noting a potential of over 1500 J/kg), a warm and moist surface layer, and bulk shear of 40 to 45 kt all support sustained convection. However, trigger placement and timing is the main question for convective potential on Saturday.

As the original parent low moves northward into Ontario, its weak cold front interacts with a developing warm frontal feature associated with a second low developing off the lee of the Colorado Rockies. This frontal feature is modeled to remain hovering over central Wisconsin to central Iowa, but its exact location remains in question. As the main trigger to convection for the Saturday time period, the timing and placement of this feature will be pivotal in the intensity and placement of widespread convection.

As the second low pressure system propagates along its warm front into the Upper Midwest on Sunday, WAA continues across southern Wisconsin. Disparities from run to run and model to model continue into Sunday as well as far as the northern extent of the warm frontal boundary, and therefore how far north into central Wisconsin warm, moist, unstable air is able to remain in place.
The cold frontal passage of this second low pressure system Sunday afternoon into Sunday night will be the main trigger for convection. This day remains most in question as far as intensity of any severe weather, due to its dependence on frontal timing.
Will continue to monitor as the event approaches.

From Saturday through Sunday, PWATs of 1 to 1.5 inch are forecast across the region, leading to locally heavy rain concerns. Places that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be more prone to heavy rain impacts.

Cold front moves out by Monday morning, with southwesterly winds and quieter weather expected through Tuesday before additional shortwaves progress across the region midweek.

MH

AVIATION
Issued 945 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail tonight into Friday morning. Then as low pressure gradually slides east across the Plains, expect southeasterly winds to increase through the morning. Shower timing looks to be slightly more delayed with limited morning chances, but increasing from the west-southwest through the afternoon and evening. As a surface warm front lifts northward through the evening, that is when we expect to see some the heavier shower activity and lower flight conditions to spread in across southern WI through the evening. While thunder is not looking likely for the initial rounds of showers, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder along with some small hail and gustier winds Friday evening and night.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Light winds continue into this evening as high pressure of 30.4 inches remains in place over the northern Great Lakes region. As this high exits eastward and low pressure of 29.3 inches develops in the central Great Plains overnight, southeast winds will begin to increase. As low pressure approaches Minnesota Friday into Friday night, expect southeasterly winds to continue to increase, with some gusts approaching gales possible Friday night into Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory for wind and waves is in effect for nearshore regions throughout this time period. Another low pressure system around 29.5 inches will move northeast across the Great Lakes Region Sunday into Monday, which will bring gusty southerly winds to the southern half of the Lake and northeasterly winds to the northern half.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Sunday night, with the best chances for thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday afternoon and night, and Sunday afternoon and night.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Friday to 7 PM Monday.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Green Bay, WI,