Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:48PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:48 PM CST (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:32PMMoonset 8:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ669 Expires:201901212215;;702109 Fzus63 Kmkx 211513 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 913 Am Cst Mon Jan 21 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.7 inches will move from the western great lakes into ohio today. Winds turn southeasterly by this afternoon, as low pressure of 29.3 inches develops in eastern colorado. That low will lift into far southeast iowa Tuesday, with gusty south winds continuing ahead of the low. Gale force winds will be possible later tonight into Tuesday over the southern two thirds of the lake. Freezing spray is expected into Tuesday as well. Low pressure of 29.6 inches will move northeast of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds will become northwesterly during this time. Heavy freezing spray will become a risk once again later in the week, as very cold air returns to the region. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-212215- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 913 am cst Mon jan 21 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Scattered snow showers late this morning. Freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Tuesday..South winds to 30 kt. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Tuesday night..South winds to 30 kt becoming west. Rain, snow with a chance of freezing rain in the evening, then rain and snow likely overnight. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow and light freezing rain in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Chance of snow. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
LMZ669


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 211726
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1126 am cst Mon jan 21 2019

Update Immediate concern is enhanced lake effect snow band just
offshore, moving nnw to eastern ozaukee and sheboygan counties.

Nam indicating enhanced low level omega and convergence lingering
in eastern sheboygan county into the early evening as low level
winds from the sse increase, enhancing the low level convergence.

Bumped up pops and snowfall in eastern sheboygan county, and could
potentially get 1-3 inches into the evening in this area. Will
watch closely and may need to issue quick advisory as the snow may
interfere with evening commute.

Aviation(18z tafs) Lower ceilings and vsbys will accompany lake
effect snow showers in eastern areas through the afternoon, but a
general diminishing trend is expected from south to north. Lower
ceilings and vsbys will return later Tuesday as snow and a mixture
of precipitation spreads into southern wi. There may be a period
of low level wind shear later tonight into Tuesday as well.

Prev discussion (issued 942 am cst Mon jan 21 2019)
update...

shifting low level winds to the southeast and delta-t around 17c
will continue to generate scattered to numerous snow showers over
the lakeshore areas through the day. Fortunately, the low level
convergence looks weaker, but the cloud bearing layer is firmly
entrenched in the dendritic growth zone. Therefore, bumped up snow
totals to one half inch to one inch, but could have locally
higher amounts of 1 to 3 inches right at the shore. No changes to
Tuesday event.

Mbk
marine...

nearshore waters...

issued a small craft advisory from 23z today until 12z Wednesday
for the nearshore waters of lake michigan. South winds will
increase by early this evening and continue into Tuesday, with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots at times. Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet
by early this evening, and 5 to 9 feet later tonight into Tuesday
evening. The winds should weaken somewhat Tuesday night, with
waves subsiding later Tuesday night as well. Freezing spray is
also expected into Tuesday.

Open waters...

considering a gale warning for the southern two thirds of the open
waters of lake michigan. South gusts to 30 knots are expected
tonight into Tuesday night Wednesday morning. There is some
potential for 35 knot gales to occur, mainly over the southern two
thirds of the lake, later tonight into Tuesday evening.

Also considering a heavy freezing spray warning for tonight into
Tuesday, though conditions may be too borderline. Freezing spray
is expected into Tuesday, just not sure if it will be heavy enough
for a headline.

Will make decisions on these headlines for the afternoon issuance
of the marine forecasts.

Some gusts to 30 knots may occur later Tuesday night into
Wednesday as well, as winds shift to the northwest.

Wood
prev discussion... (issued 514 am cst Mon jan 21 2019)
update... Lake effect band slowed the westward push towards shore
but still expecting a trend onto portions of the shore this
morning. Adjusted some pops a bit. Otherwise bitterly cold temps
in place with some inland areas well into the teens low 20s below
zero.

Pc
aviation(12z tafs)... Watching lake effect band offshore as it
slowed its westward push since last update. Still expecting a few
snow showers to eventually work onshore this morning with minor
accums. Otherwise some MVFR CIGS will drift inland for a time
today before southeast winds start to carry these clouds north of
the area. Mid and high clouds increase today into this evening. A
small chance of light snow will be in place this evening with the
waa regime. Otherwise expecting dry conditions. Snow will develop
Tuesday with widespread ifr conditions likely with some lifr
potential as well Tuesday afternoon evening.

Pc
prev discussion... (issued 323 am cst Mon jan 21 2019)
short term...

today - confidence... Medium
main story early on is the bitterly cold temps. Overnight
readings tanked with clear skies, light winds and snow cover.

Many locales seeing double digit negative readings to start the
day. The other focus is lakeside with band of lake effect snow
showers trending westward from offshore. Have bumped up some pops
with some isolated accums of an inch or less. As traj shift
around to being more onshore some of these lake clouds will likely
shift westward and then get carried northward as low level flow
becomes more sse throughout the day. Otherwise plenty of mid high
clouds upstream heading this way ahead of our next storm system.

Developing WAA will be offset by very cold start and existing lake
clouds and increase in system clouds throughout the day. So will
steer towards colder guid numbers.

Tonight - confidence... Medium
developing WAA regime ahead of the low likely to set up. Models
have been hinting at the potential of a band of a little light
snow or flurries with this forcing. Will have some small pops for
this. Otherwise with clouds and a a sustained southerly wind flow
it will be a much milder night.

Tuesday into Wednesday - confidence... Medium to high
the main story precipitation-wise is with the system that moves
through the region Tuesday Wednesday.

A mid-level trough currently in nevada will propagate east-
southeast into central plains today tomorrow with a briefly closed
off vort MAX developing Tuesday morning in nebraska kansas. This
deep trough will lead to some very strong deep lift ahead of it as
it approaches southern wisconsin Tuesday. In the lower levels, an
850mb closed low develops in NE ks as well late Monday night early
Tuesday morning. This 850mb trough will become elongated into
Tuesday, but will still provide some very strong low level flow
out of the gulf to provide this system will ample moisture to work
with. Down at the surface, a deep low is expected to develop in ne
colorado Monday night and then track through northern kansas,
southern iowa, NW illinois, and then southeast wisconsin Tuesday
evening.

There are some differing opinions between the guidance on the
details of this event, which is typical at this range. First, the
nam has been a consistent, low-end QPF outlier for the past few
runs with this event due to the trough not being as negatively
tilted as the gfs ECMWF show. The ECMWF is on the other side of
this and brings across a much more amplified closed 500 850mb
trough and a deeper slower surface low. In between these two is
the gfs, which is the path we chose to follow at the moment. Wpc's
preferred blend for this system is currently the 00z UKMET gem,
which doesn't appear to be too far off from what the GFS offers up
in our region.

Digging into the details with this system, there are a lot of
positives in terms of the potential for heavy snowfall rates. Of
note is the deep forcing due to the surface to mid level trough
and high moisture availability. To go along with this, there
appears to be some strong low level (surface-850mb) frontogenesis
with some negative epv just above that circulation Tuesday
afternoon northeast of the surface-850mb low. So, am expecting
some banded precipitation to occur with this event, particularly
Tuesday afternoon evening.

The negatives with this event are the low snow-liquid ratios
which will likely be in the 8-1 to 12-1 range with the higher
ratios occurring the further northwest you go. Also, there is the
issue with a warm front nose moving into southeast wisconsin which
could briefly turn the snow over to rain for a period when the
heaviest precipitation should be falling. Also, winds do not
appear to be very strong when the heaviest snow falls, but they do
pick up a bit overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.

So, this left us with a decision on what to do with a potential
winter storm watch. We have a concern that there will be an area
that sees some heavy snowfall rates Tuesday afternoon evening but
there is still some uncertainty for where that band would be. Due
to this, we decided to match up with arx and dvn and put out a
watch in the area that we think has the highest chance of seeing
the heavy snowfall rates and the least likely chance of having a
change over to rain. This watch will run from southwest wisconsin
through east central wisconsin and go from Tuesday morning through
Wednesday morning. There is the potential that some all of the
watch area transitions to a winter weather advisory, particularly
the southern tier of counties, which if the low tracks a bit
further north could end up in the mix. Also, for simplicity, did
the watch for the same time for the whole area but should see the
snow develop first in southwest wi and work its way eastward. Will
let those details come out with any upgrade to a warning advisory.

Long term...

Thursday into Sunday - confidence... Medium to high
the next story will be on the cold air progged to push down into
the region Thursday as an arctic front pushes through. Likely will
be doing some wind chill advisories with wind chills getting below
-20f. Beyond that, there are a few northwest flow type systems
would could briefly 'warm' temps up and bring some light snow
along with it. Didn't focus much on this period with the pending
snow Tuesday early Wednesday.

Aviation(09z tafs)... Localized ifr conditions possible closer to
the lake this morning as lake effect snow showers move onshore.

Expecting minor accums of mainly half an inch or less. Otherwise
some MVFR CIGS will drift inland for a time today before
southeast winds start to carry these clouds north of the area. Mid
and high clouds increase today into this evening. A small chance
of light snow will be in place this evening with the WAA regime.

Otherwise expecting dry conditions. Snow will develop Tuesday with
widespread ifr conditions likely with some lifr potential as well
Tuesday afternoon evening.

Marine... Still likely some higher wave action to account for so
will let ongoing small craft expire naturally at 10z. Another
small craft headline will be needed starting tonight. This is due
to tightening pressure gradient ahead of next low pressure
system. This will kick in the south southeast winds and lead to
some higher wave generation.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night for wiz046-047-051-052-056>060-062-063-067.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 6 am cst
Wednesday for lmz643>646.

Update... mbk
today tonight and aviation marine... mbk
Tuesday through Sunday... Halbach


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi49 min NNE 5.1 G 6 16°F 1034.4 hPa (-1.4)13°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi69 min W 2.9 G 8 17°F 1034.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi69 min SE 7 G 9.9 12°F 1034.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 43 mi31 min SE 6 G 8 13°F -4°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last
24hr
NE8
G13
NE10
G17
NE7
G14
NE7
G18
E5
G9
E5
G9
E5
G8
E5
G8
E4
E5
G8
E3
E3
G6
E5
E5
E5
E5
E5
E5
E5
E5
E7
E7
G11
E7
SE5
1 day
ago
NE6
G9
N7
G12
N8
G13
N9
G15
NE6
G13
NE7
G15
NE6
G13
NE6
G14
NE9
G13
NE5
G10
NE5
G9
E5
G10
E3
G7
E3
E3
G7
NE3
NE2
G5
E4
G7
E3
E4
E6
G10
E6
G9
E4
G9
NE4
G9
2 days
ago
NE5
G12
N6
G9
N4
G10
N7
G11
N4
G9
NE5
G11
NE5
G8
NE8
G13
NE6
G12
NE6
G12
NE4
G9
NE5
G8
NE5
G9
NE5
G10
E7
G10
NE4
G8
NE4
G7
E8
G13
NE3
G9
NE5
G10
NE5
G11
E7
G11
E9
G13
NE5
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi56 minNNE 510.00 miFair15°F7°F70%1034.6 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrN13
G19
N11N9
G19
N9N6N5N5NW5NW8N9NW9N11N10NW9NW6NW7NW5NW5NW4CalmN3NE3NE3NE5
1 day agoN9N9N12
G22
N11
G19
N13
G21
N10
G22
N12
G20
N9N12N13
G21
N13N13N13N12N11NW12N11N12N10N8N14N10N10N13
2 days agoN7NW5NE5N7N8N8N9N9NE16NE17N12
G22
N10N13N10
G20
N10N10N10
G22
N12
G18
N10
G19
N12
G25
N11
G18
N9
G17
N9
G17
N9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.