Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:18PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:31 AM CDT (13:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:59PMMoonset 8:23AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Expires:201905221515;;263701 Fzus63 Kmkx 220759 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 259 Am Cdt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.3 inches will continue northeast over the central plains into the northwestern parts of the great lakes region. Winds will be gusty out of southeast this morning but will turn to the south/southwest today as the low lifts into minnesota by the afternoon. Winds will weaken a little tonight as the low departs and high pressure approaches. No gale force wind events are expected through the week ahead. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-221515- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 259 am cdt Wed may 22 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Today..Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south 15 to 25 kt. Scattered rain showers this morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Scattered showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ669


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 221057
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
557 am cdt Wed may 22 2019

Update
Showers have moved out over the lake now with the forecast
remaining on track for the day.

Aviation(12z tafs)
We have MVFR ifr CIGS this morning as the low pressure to our west
continues northeast. Later this morning low CIGS will push out
leaving mostly scattered mid to high clouds. Into this evening,
low level wind shear may again become a concern with 40 kts at 2
kft from the southwest. This concern will last through much of
the overnight hours. The other concern this evening will be with
shower storm potential as there will be some instability in region
possibly yielding a few weak thunderstorms late this evening and
overnight.

Prev discussion (issued 336 am cdt Wed may 22 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high...

gusty winds continue across southern wi with some locally higher
gusts up to 50 mph possible as rain exits the region with an sps
issued for the eastern half of the cwa. Otherwise, showers
continue to push east northeast through the northeastern parts of
the area.

Into today we will have continuing gusty winds with gusts as high
as 35 mph, particularly further to the west as the low pressure
region approaches to our west. Winds will thus be turning to the
south southwest today. Gusty winds will bring some concerns for
wind advisory conditions (39 mph) but are unlikely to be able to
consistently reach gusts that high.

Drier air will dominate for much of the day with clouds expected
to scatter out into the late morning early afternoon. This will
allow for some Sun to warm us up this afternoon possibly reaching
into the mid 70s across southern wi. Into the evening and
overnight hours we will see chances for showers and storms,
primarily to the south and east. This will be associated with some
frontogenetic forcing along the cold front in the presence of
some low level moisture and some weak cape. However, dryness aloft
still yields some uncertainty with the extent of these
showers storms but models are growing in confidence that at least
southwest wi will be clipped.

Long term...

Thursday through Friday night... Forecast confidence... Medium.

A frontal boundary pushes through the area earlier in the morning
hours and there could be a few lingering showers storms across the
far SE portion of the area to start Thursday. High pressure
building in from the west will bring a slightly cooler and drier
airmass into the region for Thursday. Latest guidance has come in
cooler than previous forecast but given the mostly sunny skies
think that might be overdone. Kept temps close to previous
forecast with highs around 70 degrees.

The focus will quickly turn to a system moving out of the southern
plains and towards the dakotas. All of the guidance has been
consistent in developing a complex of storms along a warm frontal
boundary over ia. Then as the low moves north these storms spread
into the western half of the area close to sunrise Friday. We'll
be holding onto the E SE flow and low level inversion initially so
these storms will be elevated.

Ridging centered over the southeastern us coupled with the
position of the low to our west will allow for a good return flow
of moisture with into the 60s for Friday. Lapse rates steepen
aloft as the upper level system begins to shift east but one
issue is going to be how much cloud cover might linger over the
area. This will impact CAPE and models have started to back off on
the amount of instability with values upwards of 1,000 to 1,500
j kg. In addition to the limited heating, a frontal boundary may
be draped over the area to just slightly south. Just where
exactly this boundary sets up for Friday will control our threat
for strong to severe storms. There is still some details to be
worked out here.

Saturday through memorial day... Forecast confidence... Medium to
high.

High pressure building in to the north will help to keep the area
mostly rain free over the holiday weekend. The exception is along
the il wi border where the frontal boundary to the south could
shift back to the north. Multiple waves riding the northern
periphery of the ridge could generate some showers and storms
along this frontal boundary Saturday and Sunday.

The warmest day of the weekend will be Saturday with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. More northerly winds for Sunday and Monday
will bring temps into the upper 60s and 70s for highs.

Tuesday through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence... Medium.

The southeastern ridge and western trough pattern will continue
into early next week. It looks like a system could shift out of
the plains and bring the stalled frontal boundary to our south
back northward. Expect increasing rain storm chances next week.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

gusty winds continue across southern wi with some locally higher
gusts from 35-45 kts possible as rain exits the region. We will
also have continuing strong low level wind shear through 9z to the
west and as late as 12z to the east at around 50 kts to 2 kft
from the southeast. MVFR CIGS are beginning fill in to the west and
will quickly fall to ifr between 9z and 12z from west to east.

Ifr CIGS will fall as low as 500 ft and will last the much of the
morning hours before clouds scatter out. Winds will remain quite
breezy through the day with some potential for storms in southeast
wi in the late evening overnight.

Marine...

gusty winds over the nearshore this morning with some gusts as
high as 40 kts as localized strong wind gusts push in behind the
rain showers. This has caused us to issue a gale through 7am. This
may briefly affect parts of the open lake, however, is not
expected to cause major concerns.

Gusty winds will continue across the region while veering to the
south as low pressure to the west of the region pushes northeast.

Thus a small craft advisory will continue through 7pm for breezy
winds and waves from 3-6 feet. Into tonight winds will begin to
die down as the low pushes north and high pressure begins to push
back in.

There will be chances for showers across the open lake this
morning but will decrease into the afternoon before another chance
for showers and storms into the late evening overnight hours
potentially causing some localized strong wind gusts.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for wiz066-
071-072.

Beach hazards statement through this evening for wiz052-060.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Gale warning until 7 am cdt this morning for lmz643>646.

Update... Ark
today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Thursday through Tuesday... Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi31 min ESE 7 G 8 44°F 1012.7 hPa (+2.4)44°F
45024 38 mi31 min SE 14 G 18 49°F 41°F3 ft1014.8 hPa (-1.1)44°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi51 min SE 11 G 17 51°F 1014.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 43 mi49 min ESE 8 G 18 52°F 44°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi38 minSE 6 G 1610.00 miOvercast47°F44°F90%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E11E9NE9E6E7E5E9NE8E9E6NE7E6E7E6E11
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N11E8NE8E7E5SE5SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4E8
2 days agoNE5NE7NE6E6E7S4E6E6E4W16
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NW8NW5NW8NW4NW6NW11NW9NW9NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.