Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:23PM Sunday November 18, 2018 10:56 AM CST (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 3:27PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ669 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 845 Am Cst Sun Nov 18 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of snow through mid morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 20 kt backing to west 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday night..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ669 Expires:201811182215;;492995 FZUS63 KMKX 181445 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 845 AM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... High pressure of 30.6 inches over the Central Plains today will weaken and slide southward tonight into Monday as low pressure of 30.0 inches moves through the western Great Lakes. Brisk westerly winds are expected today, particularly across the north half of the lake. High pressure of 30.4 inches will slide southward into the Central Plains Monday night into Tuesday, bringing quiet weather to the area. Gusty winds will return later Tuesday into early Wednesday between the departing high and an approaching trough of low pressure. Westerly gusts could approach gale force. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-182215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan, WI
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location: 43.71, -87.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 181510
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
910 am cst Sun nov 18 2018

Update
No changes needed at this point. Today will be a cool but
otherwise pleasant day, with plenty of sunshine.

Marine
Open waters... Winds will become westerly over the lake this
morning, with some gusts to around 30 knots expected over the
north half of the open waters. Further south, expect gusts to
around 20 knots.

Winds will become northerly tomorrow evening, with gusts 25-30
knots expected overnight. An area of higher waves to 8 feet is
expected to move from north to south along the lake in response.

Winds will then increase from the south to southwest Tuesday into
Wednesday, with gale force gusts possible over the open waters.

Nearshore... Quiet conditions are expected today, with waves
increase tomorrow afternoon and evening. A small craft advisory
may be needed for this time.

Prev discussion (issued 517 am cst Sun nov 18 2018)
update...

the clearing continues as anticipated this morning, with mostly
sunny skies expected today.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

a few lingering MVFR ceilings toward the il border will depart
early this morning as drier air continues to move into the area.

Mid and high level clouds also continue to clear out northwest to
southeast. Once these clouds depart, mostly sunny skies are
likely for the remainder of the day. Mid and high level clouds
will return from the northwest tonight.

Prev discussion... (issued 250 am cst Sun nov 18 2018)
discussion...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high:
high pressure will bring a quiet day to southern wisconsin today.

Skies have begun to clear from the northwest and will continue to
do so through the early morning. Sunny skies are thus expected for
the majority of the upcoming day. Despite plenty of sun, temps
will remain below normal due to the chilly airmass in place.

Mid and high level clouds will increase tonight, which should put
a damper on radiational cooling later in the night. Below normal
low temps in the low 20s are still expected though.

Monday and Monday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Surface low pressure will track from northern wi to northern
lower michigan on Monday. A trailing cold front will sweep across
the area during the afternoon... Bringing yet another reinforcing
shot of colder air to the area. Most of the associated weather
will stay to the north... Across central and northern wisconsin.

But, can't completely rule out some light snow with the frontal
passage, so will maintain the small chcs we've had going. No
accumulation is expected. Cold high pressure builds in for Monday
night. However, winds turn north to possibly northeast near lake
michigan Monday night and this could allow some lake effect snow
showers to clip our far southeast later Monday night. The bulk of
that snow should be an indiana illinois problem.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is high.

After a cold start with a high pressure ridge overhead in the
morning, low pressure will track just north of lake superior while
the ridge pushes south. This eventually puts us in a southwest
return flow with decent h8 warm air advection in the afternoon. We
won't really benefit much at the surface as the warm air remains
mostly elevated into Tuesday night. A cold front trailing the low
will push south into the area by Wednesday morning, but it will
be washing out due to the persistent elevated WAA it's pushing
into. At this point, any associated weather should stay well north
of the forecast area.

Wednesday through Thursday night... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper level pattern begins evolve from a cold northwest flow
to a zonal one by Wednesday night, eventually going southwest
Thursday night. This signals the start to a noticeably milder, more
normal trend in temperatures later in the week. This period looks
dry under high pressure. Temperatures will also be a bit milder,
but still a few degrees below normal.

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A southerly flow will pull a warmer and more moist air mass north
into the region. A low pressure trough approaching from the west
pushes in very slowly late in the week. The canadian gfs ECMWF are
handling a complex mid level trough evolution somewhat differently
resulting in varied timing pressure pattern details at the
surface. For now, it will have to suffice to generalize as a
milder period with chance of precip from time to time. Given the
thermal profile, rain looks to be the dominant precip type.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

a few lingering MVFR ceilings toward the il border should depart
early this morning as drier air continues to move into the area.

Mid and high level clouds have begun to clear out northwest to
southeast. This will continue into the morning hours, with mostly
sunny skies then likely for the remainder of the day.

Marine...

westerly winds will gust to 25 to 30 knots across northern
portions of lake michigan today, with lesser winds toward the
south. This will bring some higher waves to northeast parts of
the lake.

West to southwest winds will be gusty later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Gusts could approach gale force over the open waters, with
a good chance for small craft advisory winds over the nearshore
waters.

Gusty winds are expected to return for later Thursday into Friday
night. Southerly gusts could approach gale force, particularly
over the northern half of the lake.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Boxell
today tonight and aviation marine... Boxell
Monday through Saturday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi57 min W 11 G 13 26°F 1025.7 hPa (-0.9)14°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 42 mi77 min WSW 6 G 9.9 30°F 1026.4 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 43 mi39 min WSW 8 G 13 31°F 19°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi77 min W 14 G 16 31°F 1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI35 mi64 minW 810.00 miFair27°F14°F58%1026 hPa

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N9N9N8N6CalmN3NW3NW3NW3NW3NW4NW6NW5NW3------W5CalmCalmCalmW9W8
1 day agoW12
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2 days agoS9S5S7S5S10S10S6S5SW6S6S7SW6SW5SW7SW6SW5W11W7W7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.