Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:26 PM   Moonset 3:07 AM

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LMZ669 Expires:202405190915;;455165 Fzus63 Kmkx 190202 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 902 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
a cold front will move west to east across the region tonight, with isolated showers and storms possible. Winds become northerly early Sunday behind the front, before becoming light and variable as high pressure of 30.0 inches moves through Sunday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds return Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-190915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 902 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 20 kt veering to west 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Thursday - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 190236 AAA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 936 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms this evening, especially northwest of Madison. Gusty winds possible.

- Unsettled Monday and Tuesday with several rounds of rain/storms.

- Increased risk for strong/severe storms Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

UPDATE
Issued 936 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The incoming cold front has struggled to produce much in the way of showers/storms so far this evening. Isolated activity has pulsed up and down toward the Dells, with better sustained updrafts in/around Waupaca.

There will remain enough convergence to maintain a risk of isolated showers and storms into the early overnight hours, mainly north the I-94 corridor. Loss of daytime heating has resulted in waning instability and an increasing cap. As a result any storms that are able to develop will be capable of lightning, small hail and perhaps a few wind gusts, though the opportunity for any gusts would be in the next hour or two.

Light southwest winds ahead of the front have allowed temperatures to stay rather warm so far this evening. The forecast has been adjusted for a slower temperature descent, though lows in the 50s continue to look good by daybreak Sunday.
Enjoy the quiet, warm day Sunday as the pattern will once again becoming active Monday and Tuesday.

Gagan

SHORT TERM
Issued 237 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Rest of this Afternoon through Sunday:

Temperatures have warmed into the 80s inland (70s lakeside)
this afternoon, under abundant sunshine. Deep mixing has resulted in dewpoints dropping into the 50s and low 60s in many locations, with just a few high based cu.

The main focus this evening will be on a cold front currently located to our northwest. This front and an associated pre- frontal trough will push into south central Wisconsin early this evening. Overall upper level support is weak, with the main shortwave moving across western Lake Superior. This, along with the deep mixing and dry boundary layer, will probably limit convective coverage along the front. That said, the dry and well mixed boundary layer will also present a threat for strong wind gusts for any organized convection that does form, given the inverted v profile.

Convective coverage will decrease fairly quickly through the evening, with just a handful of showers/storms (if that) by the time the front reaches southeastern Wisconsin late this evening.
Skies will clear overnight, with lows in the 50s.

High pressure makes a brief appearance tomorrow, with light and variable winds and highs in the upper 70s to near 80. With the light wind profile, expect a well-developed lake breeze to move inland during the afternoon hours.

Boxell

LONG TERM
Issued 237 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Sunday Night through Saturday:

Scattered showers and storms will develop overnight Sunday night into Monday morning as a strong low level jet noses into the area. Hail will be possible with a few of the strongest storms.

Additional thunderstorms are possible during the day Monday, depending on the timing of a shortwave moving through the area.
If the wave moves through during the morning as currently expected, there may be enough capping/subsidence in the afternoon to limit additional precipitation. However, a slower progression would favor more convective development in the afternoon, including the potential for a few stronger storms.

Tuesday continues to look like our best chance for severe weather, though the situation remains somewhat messy and complex. Low pressure lifting through western Iowa and southern Minnesota is expected to reach western Wisconsin by afternoon and evening, with an associated warm front lifting northward through the region. Convection will likely be ongoing north of this front Monday night and Tuesday morning, but there may be enough capping south of the warm front for a break early Tuesday afternoon. The current scenario suggests that severe thunderstorms may then develop over Iowa and northern Missouri Tuesday afternoon, and move east-northeastward Tuesday evening ahead of an advancing cold front. All modes of severe weather will be possible, though the wind and spin-up tornado threat will be greatest if convection is able to congeal into an organized convective complex by the time it reaches southern Wisconsin.

Ultimately, the location of the warm front and degree of instability that is able to develop Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon will be very key to the eventual severe weather threats.

Drier air looks to then build into the region mid week as high pressure moves through the area, with southerly flow returning late in the week/early next weekend.

Boxell

AVIATION
Issued 936 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Showers and storms have remain rather isolated in coverage (north and west of MSN) with the best coverage toward central and northern WI. The incoming cold front will shift winds from southwest this evening to northwest overnight, however confidence is low that a shower or storm will affect any of the area aerodromes and any mention in the TAFs will be removed with a forthcoming update.

Winds will continue to shift on Sunday, with easterly winds setting up during the afternoon. Aside from a few passing high clouds, VFR conditions are expected into Sunday evening.

Gagan

MARINE
Issued 237 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Southwest winds will continue this afternoon and early evening ahead of a cold front. Winds become northerly early Sunday behind the front, before becoming light and variable as high pressure moves through Sunday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds return Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed during this time.

Boxell

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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