Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 7:39 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 639 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Tonight - SE winds around 5 kt early this evening, becoming light and variable, then becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Sun - W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Wed night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Thu night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

ANZ100 639 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure remains broadly centered over eastern canada, providing fair weather as it extends down along the new england coastline meanwhile a low pressure system is passing well outside of the area, tracking nne toward the east end of nova scotia. With the latter system and its expansive pressure footprint departing, high pressure will then build and center over the western atlantic early in the coming week bringing a more southerly flow back across the waters. Low pressure approaches the coast by mid- week.

FXUS61 KGYX 112244 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 644 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cool and unsettled pattern continues through the weekend as a longwave trough with multiple cut off low pressure system gradually crosses the area. Isolated afternoon showers continue this weekend, with some lingering into the evening hours. Below average temperatures are expected, with a trend warmer into early week. A more widespread period of showers and rain is likely beginning Monday night into Wednesday. Conditions dry out late in the week as New England sees a period between systems, and then may turn unsettled again by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Update...
Latest satellite imagery continues to show quite a bit of cloud cover over eastern and northern portions of the forecast areas as of 2242Z as well as western New Hampshire. Mainly clear skies will continue in-between in an area of weak ridging. Have made minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points for the near term portion of the forecast. A frost advisory will remain for portions of the interior into early Sunday morning as temperatures drop through the 30s once again tonight.

Prev Disc...
The weather pattern remains largely the same as it was last night, so I'm not expecting tonight to be terribly different in terms of sensible weather. In the low-levels, we remain in a col between low pressure centers east of Nova Scotia and over western New York... meanwhile aloft, shortwave ridging separates the upper level reflections of these features. The result is another calm night with diurnally driven cumulus cover today dissipating this evening, and temperatures cooling into the 30s to near 40.

Now that we consider the growing season to be active outside of Coos Co NH and the Western Maine mountains, the big question will be if we dip to near or below freezing... and where. Like last night, and today, the multiple (weak) flow regimes in play through the column will lead mixed cloud decks which will make it tough to determine where those ideal cooling conditions will occur. The best guess right now is an outcome similar to last night, where locations near the ME/NH border and along the coast are most likely to radiate out at least early in the overnight.
Dew points are creeping up in onshore flow, which gives me pause... however a slightly warmer/more humid trend would still produce areas of frost vs the freeze last night. The HRRR shows some mid/higher clouds crossing into the area from the west after midnight... but they may not reach this area in time before temperatures dive. Overall it's marginal, but a Frost Advisory has been posted for portions of the Androscoggin, Saco, and Piscataqua River Valleys.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
A bit of a funny synoptic picture develops Sunday, with an upper level low dawdling across New England atop building high pressure extending south from Labrador... coming into phase with broad high pressure over the southeast US. The result is fairly similar to today, with diurnally driven showers and clouds although likely a little more widespread given the support from the upper level low. Strong mixing will bring about steep lapse rates and some instability, with offers further support for convective showers however the 700 mb cap remains so there is a ceiling to how vigorous they could be.

Wash, rinse, repeat for Sunday night... light flow and clearing skies, along with pressure rises behind the departing upper low, will allow temperatures to cool again into the 30s to near 40. Like tonight, will have to keep an eye on forecast trends in case widespread frost is a possibility.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Overview...

The week starts off with New England situated between three separate cut off low pressure systems. One moves closer Monday night and Tuesday, spreading showers and rain into much of the area at times into at least Wednesday. The system moves away on Thursday, with a dry day looking most likely on Friday before another system moves toward the area on Saturday.

Details...

The week starts off dry with seasonable temps on Monday as three separate cut off lows linger near New England, one offshore near Bermuda, another to the north near James Bay, and another across the Southern Plains. By Monday night and Tuesday, moisture drawn northward by the southern system begins to interact with a cold front associated with the Canadian low pressure system. Showers expand across northern and western areas Monday night and Tuesday, but likely won't expand into southern and coastal areas until Tuesday night and into Wednesday as the front sags southward.

The low passes well to the south on Wednesday, with the northern edge of the rainfall near or into southern forecast areas. Wednesday and Wednesday night are trickier forecasts, with the chance that the rain remains to our south most of the day. Rain looks more likely than not at this point, but it would only take a little more of a southward jog of this system to leave Wednesday mostly dry. However, if it does trend more northward, periods of showers or rain would likely linger into Thursday.

With this slow moving pattern and multiple cut off low pressure systems, it looks likely to raining somewhere in our CWA for several days from Monday through Wednesday, but not everywhere at once. There are likely to be breaks in the rain and clouds, similar to what we've seen the last couple of days, but are difficult to time out at this point.

Friday looks like the next chance for a mostly dry day as New England has its next best chance to be between systems. But then by next weekend, it looks like another cut off low will gradually spin northwestward, spreading moisture toward New England. High pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will attempt to thwart this system toward the southwest, but there are too many other low pressure systems to get through first before the details of this one become more clear.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term...Mainly VFR through tomorrow with light winds (calm during the overnights and turning onshore in daily seabreezes)
and a chance for brief, light rain showers. Best chances for restrictions comes with brief MVFR CIGs , most likely near the coast overnight and with SHRA activity.

Long Term...VFR prevail through Monday, and then showers likely accompany MVFR ceilings Monday night and Tuesday across northern and western terminals. These restrictions spread to the remaining terminals late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Showers and MVFR ceilings likely linger across coastal and southern terminals on Wednesday, with some improvement across northern and western terminals more likely. Conditions gradually improve toward VFR everywhere by Thursday, and linger through at least Friday night.

MARINE
Short Term...Light southeast flow today turns light and variable overnight before returning out of the south on Sunday... then southwest by the end of the day. Winds are forecast to remain below 10-13 kts by and large, with similarly quiet seas mainly 2-4 ft.

Long Term...A slow moving low pressure system and cold front approach the waters Tuesday and Wednesday, with SCA conditions possible on Tuesday with southwesterly flow. This low passes south of the waters Wednesday and Thursday, with the front likely crossing slowly Wednesday and Wednesday night.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ012-018>020-033.
NH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NHZ004-006-010.
MARINE...None.

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Falmouth Foreside
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Sat -- 01:48 AM EDT     10.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:34 PM EDT     9.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
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Falmouth Foreside, Maine, Tide feet

Chebeague Point
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Sat -- 01:43 AM EDT     10.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM EDT     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:29 PM EDT     9.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
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Chebeague Point, Great Chebeague Island, Maine, Tide feet

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