Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:49PM Monday November 19, 2018 7:48 AM PST (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 227 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Light winds and seas will persist into early Tuesday. A cold front will pass through the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday with gusty south winds, rain, and steep seas. A stronger front will move through on Thursday and may bring south gales. High west swell is likely to follow Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, OR
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location: 43.73, -124.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 191224
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
424 am pst Mon nov 19 2018

Discussion In spite of the date and the approaching wet weather
approaching mid week conditions remain very unseasonably dry until
the rain rolls in Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will make for
any fires, even barrel burning, to be potentially hazardous right
up until the rain moves in. Increased winds as the front
approaches will increase the possible danger.

If you want to burn, wait until mid week after the rains have
begun, don't be "that person"!
models continue to show precipitation moving onshore Tuesday
night. Ahead of it the gradient is tightening from redding to
medford and gusty winds increasing from the south in the shasta
valley. Gusty shasta valley winds will spill over a bit into the
south end of the shasta valley and as the rain moves in the
medford area should be mostly in a rain shadow with downslope
flow until Wednesday afternoon. As we really don't see a good bl
flow feeding moisture ahead of this front, wouldn't be surprised
if the actual precip is well below what the models are currently
indicating. With the moderate southerly flow, snow levels should
remain above pass levels through Wednesday night until the 700 mb
flow becomes more westerly. Thursday morning will see snow level
drop briefly to near the cascade passes. Sven

Previous long term Wednesday through Saturday...

*travel delays will be possible for the thanksgiving holiday
starting Wednesday through the weekend.

*snow expected on the highest passes, including highway 140 near
lake of the woods and the diamond lake junction on Thursday and
Friday. Snow levels are expected to be near, but higher than
siskiyou summit.

*windy conditions could make travel difficult for high profile
vehicles east of the cascades and along the coastal highways.

Wednesday is going to mark the beginning of a drastic pattern
change, just in time for the thanksgiving holiday and the weekend
afterward. We are expecting several fronts to come through and bring
moderate precipitation to the coast, the coastal range, and the mt.

Shasta area. The first front on Wednesday is expected to be the
weakest of the three fronts, which will have to work to break down
the area of high pressure that is currently over the pacific
northwest. This will bring mainly breezy to gusty winds east of the
cascades and at the coast.

The second front will arrive on Thursday, and will be much stronger.

The ECMWF model has come more in line with the GFS and are
indicating the moderate to brief periods of heavy precipitation
across the aforementioned areas. The timing of the system still
needs to be ironed out, but the major models and ensembles are
zeroing in on Thursday evening.

The big question is going to be what happens with the snow levels
and snow. We are expecting snow across the cascades and the higher
peaks of the siskiyous. This includes mt. Ashland. For the mountain
passes, the snow levels will be around 5000 to 6000 feet on
Wednesday and lower to near 4500 feet for Thursday night into
Friday. This means that we are expecting snow on our highest passes,
including highway 140 near lake of the woods, diamond lake junction
area. Although we are expecting snow levels to be higher than
siskiyou summit, it is worth noting that this is in the extended
forecast; so confidence is only so-so.

The next front will arrive Friday into Saturday and continue into
the weekend. The system will be a bit weaker, so the precipitation
is not expected to be as strong. Overall, if this forecast verifies,
these systems will quickly bring southern oregon and northern
california back to near normal precipitation and snowfall for
november. Thus, it is recommended to keep an eye on the forecast for
updates. -schaaf

Aviation For the 19 12z tafs... A similar pattern to what's
occurred over the past few days will continue into Tuesday. Along
the coast and into the coquille valley ifr to lifr will improve
during mid to late morning then return this evening. In the umpqua
basin, lifr fog will continue overnight, scatter out this afternoon
then return late this evening. Elsewhere, expect widespreadVFR,
though some localized fog is possible in the grants pass area and
illinois valley early this morning. -dw

Marine Updated 230 am pst Monday 19 november 2018... Light winds
and seas will persist into early Tuesday. A cold front will pass
through the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday with gusty south
winds, rain, and steep seas. A stronger front will move through on
Thursday and may bring south gales. High west swell is likely to
follow Thursday night into Friday, and may become very high at 16 to
20 ft during a likely peak late Thursday night. -dw

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz021.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Wednesday for orz023.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz024>031.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Sbn sbn sbn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 23 mi26 min 53°F4 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 29 mi73 min SSW 1 G 1.9 49°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR22 mi53 minESE 30.50 miFog40°F39°F100%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5SE4CalmCalm3NW4W3CalmN6N4NE5E4CalmSE3N3CalmNE3CalmSE4SE4CalmS4E3
1 day agoCalmNE4NE5NE4E6E6E5W7W4W6W5NW4W3N5N5N5NE4NE4E3E3CalmCalmSE3SE5
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmW4NW4N5N10N11N12N10N5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
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Mon -- 03:05 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:50 AM PST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:09 AM PST     6.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:22 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:51 PM PST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:44 PM PST     5.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.22.31.71.51.92.845.26.26.66.45.74.53.22.11.31.11.52.43.54.65.25.4

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Mon -- 03:05 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:39 AM PST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:57 AM PST     6.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:22 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:40 PM PST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:32 PM PST     5.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.932.21.61.5234.25.36.26.56.25.34.22.91.91.21.21.62.63.74.65.25.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.