Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:17PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 4:10 AM EST (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:30AMMoonset 5:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 331 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Snow showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Snow showers likely early in the evening...then a chance of snow showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the evening.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots until early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet until early morning.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LHZ463 Expires:201801162100;;522149 FZUS63 KDTX 160831 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 331 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure, 30.40 inches, will push eastward across the Great Lakes Region through today. High pressure then moves in beginning Wednesday and holds heading into the weekend. LHZ463-464-162100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 160834
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
334 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Discussion
Near term today through tonight
as of 330 am est... Clipper low that brought light snowfall to the
region yesterday continues to linger across southern lake huron early
this morning, with a bent-back occluded front draped near the m-59
corridor. Convergence along this front, coupled with lingering large-
scale ascent from a closed upper low in place over southern
wisconsin northern illinois has resulted in periods of light snow
continuing through much of the night across portions of southeast
michigan. Local topographic effects have resulted in localized areas
of more enhanced radar reflectivities, particularly along the glacial
ridge, but overall flake size is small with weak omega in near the
dgz. Thus, accumulations overnight will likely be on the order of a
few tenths to around a half of an inch for most areas. Light snow is
expected to expand gradually northward into the morning hours,
although most areas of southeast michigan will still be capable of
seeing flurries and occasionally more steady light snow showers.

The exception will be across far northeastern huron county, where a
convergent near surface wind field will allow for lake enhanced
activity through the morning and into the afternoon. Tough call on
whether the meat of the band actually makes it onshore, as hi-res
guidance indicates a largely offshore component to the low-level
flow, but this could be modulated by more persistent onshore
north northeasterly flow developing later this morning as the
decaying clipper tracks slightly further east. Will continue to
monitor closely, but given the light rates expected, will hold off
on an advisory for now.

Later this morning, northern stream PV streamer moves across the
region as the upper low becomes elongated and eventually opens up as
core of 140+ kt jet streak moves off to the northeast of the trough
axis. This lingering synoptic scale lift coupled with increasing
boundary layer forcing due to diurnal effects will promote a
potential round of more persistent light snow this afternoon and
evening with slightly higher rates (0.2 to 0.4 inch per hour) and
better dendrite production, especially east of the i-75 corridor.

These trends are supported by multiple hi-res model sources, as the
trough axis swings through.

Given all these factors in play, another inch or so of fluffy
accumulation will be possible through this evening for most areas,
with locations closer to lake huron possibly seeing as high as 2
inches in spots. Highest totals are expected over northeastern huron
county, where 2-4 inches are possible, especially if the core of the
aforementioned band can move onshore. After low temperatures in the
upper single digits to mid teens (warmest between m-59 and i-94),
highs will reach into the lower 20s for most areas.

Snow chances end by late this evening as flow trajectories become
increasingly anticyclonic. With light winds, favorable radiational
cooling will allow low temperatures tonight to fall into the single
digits for most areas.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
a period of more tranquil weather will occur during the short term
period, as the upper-level trough axis exits east of the region and
is replaced by rising heights and increasingly anticyclonic
northwest flow aloft. At the surface, strong high pressure will
crest across the tennessee river valley. This pattern will usher in
drier air through the column resulting in a period of dry weather
and partly cloudy skies, although pesky residual boundary layer
moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion could lead to
periods of more cloudy skies. Highs on Wednesday will continue to be
below normal and in the 20s, but the onset of weak return flow
around the surface high will allow temperatures to moderate
beginning Thursday and continuing into Friday. Highs Thursday will
make a run at the freezing mark and warm into the mid and upper 30s
for Friday. A passing northern stream shortwave trough Thursday
night into Friday will do nothing more than increase cloud cover as
limited moisture will accompany it.

Long term Saturday through Monday
unsettled weather returns for the weekend and into early next week
as vigorous pacific energy moving ashore the west coast carves out a
deep upper-level trough and eventual lee cyclogenesis in the south-
central plains. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with the PV energy moving onshore late Friday into Saturday, and the
downstream synoptic pattern favoring the aforementioned lee
cyclogenesis. The low pressure will deepen as it tracks northeast
towards the great lakes region Sunday into Monday, with a slowing
trend noted in the last few runs of model guidance. Broad
southwesterly flow ahead of the low, aided by strengthening return
flow around high pressure situated across the southeast states will
overspread the region ahead of this system allowing for a warmup in
temperatures with daytime highs reaching into the 40s. Despite the
milder temperatures advecting in, so will the moisture along with
increasing rain chances for the latter half of the weekend into
Monday.

Marine
Low pressure will track into southern ontario this morning wind
winds veering to the north-northeast in its wake. While colder air
will spill across the lake in the wake of this low, a decreasing
gradient will limit peak wind gusts at 20 knots or less on lake
huron.

A strengthening southwesterly gradient will develop by mid week as
strong high pressure slides across the southern united states and a
slow moving cold front pushes across northern ontario. Warmer air
advancing across the lakes will inhibit mixing depths, thus the
chances for gale force wind gusts on Wednesday and Thursday still
appear too low to carry a gale watch. The most likely period for
marginal gale force gusts seems to be limited to the late afternoon
and early evening period on Wednesday before stable conditions fully
develop. Central lake huron, downwind of the funneling effect of
saginaw bay, will be most vulnerable to a period of gusts pushing 35
knots.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1155 pm est Mon jan 15 2018
aviation...

areas of light snow showers and flurries will continue to develop
across the region overnight. Conditions generally at MVFRVFR
restrictions given the light intensity, with minimal accumulation.

Potential for a more localized focus for some heavier snow showers
will be tied to convergence that develops during the early and mid
morning hours along a stalled frontal boundary. Ifr conditions
plausible should these snow showers materialize, greatest potential
detroit corridor up through ptk. Passage of a surface trough will
provide a secondary focus for snow shower development on Tuesday. A
possible diurnal contribution to the coverage will make all
terminals susceptible to scattered to numerous snow showers lasting
through late Tuesday.

For dtw... Light snow showers and flurries will persist overnight.

There remains the potential for a brief increase in intensity near a
frontal boundary during the early-mid morning period, but confidence
in occurrence remains low.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for cig AOB 5kft

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Dg
aviation... ..Mr
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at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi71 min W 5.1 G 6 14°F 1026.1 hPa (+0.7)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi41 min W 2.9 G 7 18°F 1025.2 hPa15°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi41 min WNW 5.1 G 6 17°F 1025.4 hPa15°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi41 min 19°F 1025.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N26
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi20 minW 5 mi19°F16°F88%1026.9 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S6S11
G17
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SE15SE13SE11SE10SE9SE9SE9SE163CalmCalmW3W4W4W3W5
1 day agoSW5SW6SW5SW7SW6454655S8S7S5S4S8
G14
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2 days agoN14
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NW10NW11NW8W64W5SW55SW5SW6SW6SW6SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.