Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cousins Island, ME

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 6:44PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 1:04 PM EDT (17:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:09PMMoonset 12:52AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1116 Am Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1116 Am Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A north to northeast flow is expected today with high pressure sliding eastward across the gulf of saint lawrence. Winds turn onshore again Thursday into Friday, with the next cold front arriving from the northwest Friday night. High pressure builds across the waters over the weekend. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cousins Island, ME
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location: 43.76, -70.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 191523
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1123 am edt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the north today and will hold
over the region on Thursday. A warm front will lift northeast
through the region Thursday night and early Friday followed by a
strong cold front Friday night. High pressure will build over the
area Saturday and will shift east into the maritimes late Sunday
and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1100 update...

low clouds continue to lift and break up across portions of the
connecticut valley and northern new hampshire late this morning.

A patch of passing cirrus is slowing this process in southwest
maine along with thicker cloud cover in northwest maine. Expect
most areas in western maine downwind of the mountains to see
sunny breaks developing through early afternoon. Have adjusted
temp TD sky rh grids baed on current obs... But no major changes
planned to current forecast.

Prev disc...

711 am update: refined cloud cover and inserted another few
hours of patchy drizzle wording over southeastern nh and coastal
me given a few observations of such early this morning.

Otherwise... Only minor tweaks to line forecast up with 7am
observations.

520 am update: minor adjustments to cloud cover to match slowing
westward advance of stratus shield. Otherwise... Have matched up
to current observed temperatures and dewpoints with no other
changes needed at this time.

Previous discussion below...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern: complex surface pattern as of early this morning with
frontal boundary responsible for yesterday S rainfall now south
of the new england coast and gradually sinking south and east.

North of this feature... Somewhat of a back door cold front is
working south and west across northern new england... Demarked
nicely by goes-16 nighttime microphysics product. Behind this
boundary... Low stratus has developed along with a decent
northeasterly wind. Ahead of this feature... Skies are still
mostly clear with fog having developed in the valleys given
light winds. Early morning water vapor imagery shows another
band of upper level moisture to our west associated with an
upper level jet streak and very weak mid level disturbance.

Through today high pressure will continue to build in from the
north... But with only modest llevel dry advection our forecast
concerns center around low stratus and it S evolution through
the day and impact on temperatures.

Through daybreak: backdoor cold front will slow as it moves west
across nh with patchy fog to it S west and low ceilings to its east.

Have seen a few -ra reports wvl-rkd which is more likely fog or
some light drizzle. Temperatures will continue to fall a bit
more... Particularly over eastern nh where the front has most
recently passed... With 50s to the east of the front and 60s to the
west.

Today: southwestward moving frontal boundary reaches the ct valley
before stalling... With mesoscale guidance suggesting a weak plume of
mucape along the western edge of this boundary where there will be
some llevel convergence and implied moisture pooling. Soundings
demonstrate a larger scale subsidence inversion... But there may be
enough instability below this to squeeze out a shower and have
included isolated pops for this potential. Cloud cover is going to
be stubborn to break up today given the trapped moisture and lack of
real robust dry advection in the low levels. Expect some Sun to
develop by afternoon... ESP over western maine and just west of the
front over the ct valley with the potential for more clouds in
between. Given the cloud cover and subsidence inversion aloft... We
won t fully realize mixing to h8... With mixing to h9 suggesting
highs generally in the 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
High impact weather potential: minimal
pattern: high pressure gradually building in from the
north... Along with low pressure developing along the front well
south of new england will induce a strengthening northerly
gradient tonight through early Thursday which will bring
increased drying to the llevel environment as mid level heights
build. Lower tropospheric ridge crests overhead by the end of
this period with warm advection encroaching from the west.

Tonight: only weak dry advection portends another night of stratus
and fog as llevel moisture re-solidifies beneath subsidence
inversion. Where stratus does not fully develop a ceiling... There
should be plenty of moisture for fog development... Which is most
likely over the ct valley where stratus may not impact. Airmass
will certainly be cooler than 24 hours previous... With lows in the
40s north and lower 50s south... A bit closer to seasonal norms for
middle september.

Thursday: strengthening northerly gradient which will get a boost
from northerly ageostrophic component of the flow at the leading
edge of 160kt h2 jet streak helping to scour more of the low level
moisture. This should yield more Sun than on Wednesday... But with
some remaining llevel moisture... And mid upper level moisture
beginning to spill over arriving h5 ridge crest... Still expect skies
to be no better than partly sunny. Temps aloft will not change
significantly... So expect highs to only be a bit warmer given
more sun... Still ending up being in the 60s in most spots...

with a few locations over the ct valley and southern nh around
70.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
High pressure will shift east Thursday night as a warm front
pushes north and a return south to southwest flow develops by
Friday morning. Associated with the passage of the warm front,
scattered showers are expected across the mountains while
elsewhere conditions should remain dry. During Friday all areas
end up in the warm sector with the increasing southwest flow and
warmer temps and increasing dewpoints. Preferred the warmer model
solutions for Fri into Fri night. Models all agree on the passage
of a strong canadian cold front associated with a clipper late
fri night. Although the wind field and shear ahead of the cold
front will be strong and favorable for tstorms, the timing of the
front later at night with the loss of heating will not be
favorable. Some strong tstorms still will be possible with the
showers but not expecting any severe storms to occur.

Behind the FROPA a cooler and drier air mass will move into the
region for the weekend as canadian high pres builds east from the
great lakes. Much cooler temps expected Sat night due to
radiational cooling as high pres becomes centered over the area
allowing some readings to drop into the 30s in the mountains and
foothills and 40s elsewhere. Highs Sat will be generally in the
upper 50s mountains to 60s elsewhere. Sunday MAX temps moderate
some reaching back into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

It appears high pres will move into the maritimes Monday as the
next system approaches from the southwest. Timing on this
approaching system varies model to model so stayed close to nbm
solution.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term...

summary: high pressure will exert an increasing influence over
flying conditions through Thursday... Gradually scouring out low
level moisture currently in place across the region.

Restrictions: largely ifr at the moment in low stratus with a few
patches of fog and drizzle out there as well as of 11z. Expect very
gradual improvement toVFR at the terminals today. However...

conditions will again deteriorate tonight to lifr ifr in fog and
stratus before more quickly improving toVFR at all sites on
Thursday.

Winds: northeasterly winds around 10kts will continue today before
becoming light and variable tonight and continuing through Thursday
before turning onshore along the coast Thursday afternoon.

Llws: no llws is expected through Thursday.

Lightning: no lightning is expected through Thursday.

Long term...VFR conditions lowering to MVFR in any developing
scattered showers late Fri mainly in the mountains and foothills.

Widespread showers and scattered tstorms with the passage of the
cold front Fri night. High pres builds into the region for the
weekend bringingVFR conditions Saturday into Monday.

Marine
Short term...

711 am update: removed scas for all but merrimack river-cape
elizabeth given weakning winds and lowering wave heights.

Remainder of SCA will likely be able to be taken down later this
morning.

Previous discussion below..

Marginal SCA conditions under northeasterly flow continue this
morning. Winds and waves in the far outer waters will remain
close to marginal scas this afternoon and tonight before
diminishing on Thursday as high pressure continues to build in
from the north.

Long term... Sca's likely Friday afternoon through Friday night due
to a strong south to southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold
front. Behind the front winds subside from the north Saturday.

Light winds and seas Sunday and Monday.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 8 mi40 min 60°F 62°F1015.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 16 mi74 min NNE 12 G 14 58°F 61°F3 ft1015.3 hPa (+1.9)54°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 35 mi64 min NNE 5.1 62°F 56°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 37 mi34 min E 6 G 8.9 61°F 64°F1015.6 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 43 mi60 min NE 12 G 16 58°F 59°F3 ft1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME11 mi73 minNE 710.00 miOvercast62°F54°F75%1015.9 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME21 mi2.1 hrsN 910.00 miOvercast57°F52°F83%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr33E3S8S5S6S3CalmCalmCalm6NE10
G18
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1 day agoSE8S6S7S9S7S3SW8SW12SW7S3SW5SW5SW7SW7SW8SW7SW7SW7S8
G16
SW4SE3Calm3Calm
2 days agoE7S6S7S8S4CalmSE3CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S4S4S4S5S5SE7SE9S8

Tide / Current Tables for Prince Point, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.