Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM   Moonset 3:56 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 040527 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 127 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

UPDATE
Made some minor adjustments based on current obs. Only chance for a few light showers through the rest of the night will be across the far NW Adirondacks, otherwise dry conditions will persist. Some patchy low stratus clouds may develop in some spots mainly east of the Hudson River, but should be rather sparse in coverage. Mid level clouds will gradually spread eastward from central NY through the night, so did increase cloud cover in the forecast especially west of the Hudson Valley.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1006]...An upper level ridge axis will be directly overhead tonight. High pressure off the New England coast will bring largely dry weather across the region with just some patchy mid and high clouds. Forecast soundings and the 00z KALY sounding shows rather dry air in the low-levels, so low cloud development later tonight looks fairly isolated. While most of the precipitation will remain to our west tonight, a few sprinkles may reach portions of Herkimer County after midnight.
Temperatures have fallen into the 50s to lower 60s in most areas and remain on track to dip into the 40s to around 50 by daybreak.

Light winds and just thin high clouds will allow for some radiational cooling. Lows by daybreak Saturday in the 40s to around 50.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
The axis of deeper moisture associated with the upper energy and associated warm and cold front will slowly approach through the day Saturday. Sources of guidance/ensembles suggest the leading edge of the deeper cloud cover and any rain is timed for very late Saturday afternoon and night. This suggests more periods of high clouds through the day with steady light south to southeast winds and highs in the 60s to around 70.

Showers move into our region from southwest to northeast through the night Saturday night and by daybreak Sunday many areas will see showers. Depending on the timing, the onset of showers in the Capital Region and points north and east may be after daybreak Sunday. Then, clouds and showers across the entire region Sunday, limiting warming. There could be a rumble of thunder but chances are low with a lack of instability. Highs mainly in the 50s Sunday.

Rain moves out Sunday night and there cold be a lingering early morning shower Monday. Then, weak cold advection begins with the exit of the upper system and cold front Monday. Highs Monday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Increasing clouds through the day, with around 70 higher terrain and near 80 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

By Wednesday through the rest of next week, split upper flow with northern stream upper energy slowly dropping out of Canada and a closed upper low slowly approaching from the northern and central plains. Confluent upper flow and associated moisture advection and low level jet forcing will result in showers and a possible rumble of thunder Tuesday night through Friday.

There will be some periods of dry weather but there is a lot of spread in sources of guidance as to the timing of embedded smaller upper impulses and associated focused moisture, low level forcing and areas of showers. Still, the general upper pattern should support unsettled weather. So, again, indicating chances for showers Tuesday night through Friday. The threat for severe weather and/or heavy rain looks limited due to the relatively weak upper dynamics and weak low level forcing.

Highs Wednesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Friday in the 60s with near 70 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and some 50s southern Adirondacks.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening, with some MVFR Cigs possibly developing after 04Z/Sun at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy mid level clouds will increase late tonight through Saturday. Lower clouds are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL, possibly dropping to 2000-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun.

Light/variable winds are expected through daybreak, though may remain south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB. Southeast to south winds will increase to 5-10 KT at all TAF sites by mid morning Saturday and continue into Saturday evening. A few gusts of 15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
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Albany
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Fri -- 01:09 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

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