Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pottersville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:27PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:26 AM EST (10:26 UTC) Moonrise 2:09PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pottersville, NY
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location: 43.76, -73.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 150957
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
457 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will spread accumulating snow into
the region from south to north this evening into tonight. The snow
may mix with sleet and freezing rain for portions of the region.

Wintry precipitation tapers off from west to east Friday late
morning into the afternoon, with additional lake effect snow
possible for the higher terrain. Continued colder than normal
temperatures expected for the weekend with mainly dry conditions
outside of the lake effect belts.

Near term through Friday
As of 410 am, cirrus canopy continues to spread east ahead of
upper low spinning around the oh ms river confluence. This
canopy apparently has been thick enough to prevent temperatures
from plummeting as much as indicated by previous MOS forecasts,
and a slight breeze in some areas has also kept temperatures
elevated. Have bumped up low temps. Still an outside shot at
record lows if we get a brief period of clearing and light
winds, but doesn't appear likely at this point.

Winter storm warning in effect 7 pm today through 1 pm
Friday for the southern adirondacks and western mohawk valley
winter weather advisory in effect 4 pm today through 1 pm Friday
for the mid hudson valley, eastern catskills, and central and
southern taconics in eastern new york, the southern berkshires
in western massachusetts, and northwestern connecticut
winter weather advisory in effect 7 pm today through 1 pm Friday
for the capital district, schoharie valley, central mohawk
valley, lake george saratoga region, northern taconics, and
helderbergs of eastern new york, the northern berkshires of
western massachusetts, and southern vermont... ..

Mid and high clouds will continue to thicken today as the upper
low moves eastward up the ohio valley. With the arctic surface
high overhead today and the increasing cloud fraction another
very chilly day is expected. The upper low will accelerate and
become an open wave as it reaches near nyc by 12z Friday. At the
surface, a coastal low will become dominant and deepen around
12 mb in 12 hours from 00-12z Friday as it moves from the
delmarva to near long island. Isentropic lift will increase
rather quickly ahead of this system, especially 00-06z, as SE winds
on the 295k surface increase to near 60-70 kt. This will allow
saturation to occur rather quickly despite the dry airmass.

Trend in the guidance has been for a slower precip onset
compared with yesterday at this time, such that the evening
commute will be spared from the mohawk valley capital
district northern berkshires and points north. South of there,
snow should spread in and possibly impact the commute as it
becomes moderate to briefly heavy. The onset of the system is
reminiscent to the laterally translating band composite in cstar
research, meaning that heavy bands will be transient for a
particular area during this onset period, but could still
approach an inch per hour at times 00-06z. Lift will be
enhanced by a coupled jet structure.

From 03-09z, most models suggest that a combination of a warm
nose and dry slot aloft will allow precip to transition to
sleet, freezing rain, and perhaps freezing drizzle from south to
north. There is still uncertainty with how far north the mixture
gets, with the ECMWF and some of its ensembles being on the
colder snowier side of the guidance compared with the
gfs NAM href mean. Current forecast thinking is that a mixture
could be seen as far north as the central mohawk valley to glens
falls area (basically areas outside of the winter storm
warning). In the warning area, this is where we see the best 850
to 700 mb frontogenesis, as the pattern becomes more reminiscent
of the cstar pivoting band composite, although not totally as
the wave opens up so the heavier bands may be more progressive.

Still, snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible
in the warning area just to the north and west of the dry slot.

Snowfall accumulations here were adjusted upward accordingly.

Further south, the eastern catskills, mid hudson valley, and
litchfield hills and southern berkshires could see around a
tenth of an inch of ice, with locally higher amounts possible in
the higher terrain. Combined with gusty winds, this could result
in some isolated power outages.

From about 12-15z, the fgen deformation band is expected to
sweep eastward across the region, so areas that turned to mixed
precip may turn back to snow around the morning commute. Precip
appears to end rather quickly from west to east during the late
morning and early afternoon behind this band, and many spots
will warm back above freezing aside from the high terrain, which
could aid snow ice removal operations.

On average, the best lift will be located below the dgz, so
lower snow to liquid ratios are expected compared with
climatology. On average, expect that they will range from
8-12:1. This will result in a rather heavy, wet snow.

Qpf will be modulated by terrain with the strong low-level se
winds. Shadowing is likely in the lee of the higher terrain of
western new england for portions of washington county, the
taconics, and even eastern portions of the capital district, and
upslope enhancement likely on the eastern slopes of the greens,
berkshires, and catskills, and the southern adirondack
foothills.

As far as headlines, upgraded the southern adirondacks and
western mohawk valley to winter storm warnings as discussed
above. Elsewhere, many areas are borderline advisory warning
criteria. Felt it would be a better idea to leave the door open
for headline upgrades than to upgrade the borderline areas to
warnings right now, so the day shift can reassess.

Short term Friday night through Saturday
Friday afternoon into Saturday, lake effect snow will return to
the western adirondacks, tacking on around 1-5 additional
inches. Some upslope snow is possible over the southern greens
especially through early Friday night, so another couple of
inches is possible there. Otherwise, below normal temperatures
will continue with partial sunshine Saturday outside of the lake
effect belt.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Coming soon

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
Thick cirrus shield will remain across the region overnight with
light and variable to calm winds with a surface high drifting
directly over the region. A coastal low has begun to develop
along the southeast coast. This low will rapid deepen Thursday
as it heads northeastward up the east coast and will bring
widespread wintry precipitation to the area. Snow will
overspread the area late in the day into the early evening with
conditions quickly dropping to ifr. It will remain cold enough
for all snow kgfl and kalb through 06z Friday. However, warmer
air is expected to work in with a changeover to sleet and
freezing rain expected at kpou and kpsf during the evening.

Light variable to calm winds overnight with a light easterly flow
developing Thursday. Winds will shift more northerly in the evening
as the coastal low approaches. Low level wind shear may be needed
for kpou and kpsf by Thursday evening however confidence is not
high enough to include in the tafs at this time.

Outlook...

Friday: high operational impact. Definite shra... Ra... Sn.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Fire weather
Widespread wintry weather expected this evening through Friday
afternoon. Mainly dry outside of lake effect belts but continued
unseasonably cool through the weekend.

Hydrology
A low pressure system will bring widespread wintry precipitation
to the region Thursday afternoon into Friday. The precipitation
may become rain or freezing rain especially from the capital
district south Thursday night into Friday morning. QPF ranges
from around 0.60 to 1.30 inches, with the heaviest amounts over
the mid hudson valley, litchfield county, and the berkshires
where rivers are already running high. Flooding on the main stem
rivers is not expected, but some urban and poor drainage
flooding cannot be ruled out due to the saturated ground.

Mainly dry for the weekend outside of lake effect snow over the
western adirondacks.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Friday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Friday for nyz058>061-063>066.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Friday for nyz039>041-043-047>054-083-084.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Friday
for nyz032-033-038-042-082.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Friday for maz025.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Friday for maz001.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Friday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Iaa
aviation... Iaa
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY29 mi34 minNE 310.00 miFair17°F10°F77%1037.3 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
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NW84NW7NW6N4CalmE4CalmNE4CalmCalmN3NE3
1 day agoN3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmCalmS3S3CalmSW5N13N10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS54S6S7SE7S9S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS10SW6SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 05:04 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:36 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:58 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.61.91.20.4-00.41.62.83.5443.52.621.61.10.60.71.7344.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 04:54 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:28 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.51.81.10.3-00.61.82.93.6443.42.51.91.510.50.81.93.24.14.64.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.