Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:22PM Monday June 26, 2017 1:11 PM EDT (17:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1001 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Partly cloudy with isolated light showers late in the morning...then mostly cloudy with scattered light showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy until early morning becoming partly cloudy. Scattered light showers early in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms until early morning. Isolated light showers in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with isolated light showers early in the morning...then mostly Sunny in the late morning and early afternoon. Partly cloudy late in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201706262115;;850118 FZUS53 KDTX 261401 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-262115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 261345
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
945 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Update
Issued at 944 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
all pretty much going to plan. Sfc low still over eastern upper
this morning with cyclonic convergence to the low level wind
field across all of NRN michigan. Quite the juicy atmosphere with
cu rapidly developing in SRN areas where skies had cleared out for
awhile at daybreak. Solid overcast and steady rains across eastern
upper and parts of far NRN lower due to strongest dpva and low
level troughing associated with the sfc low. Meanwhile, looking
upstream in and around eagle river wisconsin, latest WV imagery
showing an upper low spinning with an axis of deformation on it's
w NW flank. More steady light rains were located within this
region. The upper low will drop SE into central lower by evening,
with diurnal "heating" (gonna be quite cool today by late june
standards) firing off more showers with and ahead of the
deformation axis. Showery activity will be around in pretty much
all of NRN michigan today. No more than isolated thunderstorms
expected. No severe weather, maybe not even small hail.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 433 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Cool and showery once again today...

high impact weather potential: minimal outside of perhaps a few
thunderstorms mainly across northern lower.

Pattern synopsis forecast: 05z surface composite analysis shows a
1014mb low developing over eastern upper eastern lake superior...

ahead of a short wave trough PV anomaly over the arrowhead of
minnesota. Water vapor imagery shows an associated vorticity lobe
rotating into central upper western lower michigan... Ahead of this
feature is a broken band of showers stretching from western lake
superior (aided by stronger forcing along the short wave trough and
some modest isentropic ascent) southeast into northwest lower. Some
weak elevated instability helping some new shower development over
northern lower early this morning.

Developing surface low over the northeast half of the forecast area
this morning will be slow to move east as minnesota short wave
trough spins into lower michigan by early afternoon. This feature
expected to cross southern michigan this afternoon evening... Then
into the lower lakes overnight.

Primary forecast concerns: another day of showers is the main
problem for today. Initially... Expect shower coverage to continue
to expand eastward across northern lower during the pre-dawn
hours... Though with vorticity lobe already pushing into leelanau
benzie manistee counties expect showers to end there in the 08z-10z
time frame. This "drying" should also progress east across portions
of northern lower at least south of m-32 through mid late morning...

though will probably be cloudy for a time before cloud deck starts
to mix into a cumulus deck. Like the past several days... Thin
instability expected to develop with heating of the day... And added
forcing with short wave trough crossing the lower peninsula this
afternoon expected to drive another afternoon of scattered
convective development. Meanwhile... Showers will tend to persist
across the upper peninsula tip of the mitt counties along a mid
level deformation axis to the north of the approaching short wave
trough... Eventually this band of showers is expected to pivot across
northern lower at least through the evening hours and may even
persist into the overnight especially across northeast lower. So
bottom line is another unsettled day across the forecast area... With
temperatures likely to struggle to warm given anticipated cloud
cover. Forecast highs today from the upper 50s-mid 60s expected... A
solid 15 to 20 degrees below normal for late june.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 433 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Warmer with rain arriving Wednesday afternoon...

high impact weather potential... Low. Chance for a few thunderstorms
across northwest lower late Wednesday afternoon.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large surface high will be migrating
southeast across the ohio valley on Tuesday, drifting off the mid-
atlantic coast by Wednesday. This will gradually open up the gulf as
return flow develops over the plains, eventually bringing that
moisture into the great lakes region later Wednesday. Before then,
however, the upper trough that's been anchored over the great lakes
will finally be pushed east on Tuesday as a flattening ridge
upstream makes its approach. This will provide a period of
subsidence and generally dry weather with a decent amount of
sunshine through at least midday Wednesday. Increasing isentropic
lift will then bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to
eastern upper and northwest lower Wednesday afternoon, with rain
overspreading the rest of northern michigan Wednesday evening as a
~50 knot low level jet noses into the region.

Ongoing warm air advection will bump high temperatures back into the
upper 60s to low 70s for Tuesday and then close to normal on
Wednesday in the low to mid 70s.

Primary forecast concerns... Outside chance for an isolated diurnal
shower on Tuesday and better rain chances later Wednesday will be
the main forecast challenges. In the northwest flow pattern aloft on
Tuesday, some weak mid-level energy will drop across northern
michigan. Given the dry airmass overhead (pwats ~0.6") and
subsidence from the surface high and approaching upper ridge, think
dry conditions will generally prevail across most of northern
michigan. However, over the last several runs models have been
hinting at the possibility of a few pop up showers near lake huron
Tuesday afternoon (particularly closer to saginaw bay) and perhaps
over eastern upper. There does look to be some marginal CAPE that
develops, so if forcing is strong enough to overcome the subsidence,
there may be a shower or two.

More significant impact will come from widespread heavier rain that
develops later Wednesday afternoon across our west and then spreads
across the rest of northern michigan through Wednesday night.

Minimal CAPE and decent capping aloft through Wednesday afternoon
over northwest lower, so thunder potential will be fairly low.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 433 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms possible Wednesday
night into Thursday and again Friday afternoon evening.

A 50+ knot low level jet will nose into northern michigan late
Wednesday evening through the early morning hours of Thursday. With
the gulf wide open, this LLJ will advect abundant moisture into the
region with northern michigan sitting right on the nose of a large
area of strong moisture transport. Pwats will likely climb to around
1.75" overnight and warm cloud depths will be around 3.5 km or more.

So, expect efficient rainfall from this system Wednesday night into
Thursday morning (very well could be more than 1" for much of the
area), though models still have yet to come into good agreement on
some important details like timing and location of heaviest qpf.

Forecast details become murkier beyond Thursday with considerable
model discrepancies creeping in, but general pattern suggests
continued unsettled weather at times through the weekend. By Friday,
a baroclinic zone looks to set up from southern iowa to the thumb. A
wave of low pressure developing over the central plains is progged
to ride up along this baroclinic zone Friday into early Saturday,
providing another shot at some decent rainfall and thunderstorms for
northern lower as it interacts with a deepening shortwave over the
great lakes. Additional showers will be possible at times over the
weekend as a cold front drops through the region, though expect not
all of the area will see rain. Temperatures look to be near normal
through the period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1148 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
MVFR CIGS return late tonight Monday morning.

Wx to remain unsettled, as front remains hung up across upper mi,
and another upper level disturbance approaches from the wnw. Low
pressure will gradually cross northern mi thru Monday. Anticipate
periodic shower activity thru Monday, along with perhaps a stray
tsra or two. Like last night, CIGS will decrease into MVFR
territory late tonight, with gradual improvement during the day
Monday.

Light W to NW winds tonight, becoming stronger (gusty at mbl) on
Monday.

Marine
Issued at 433 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
gusty winds within lake michigan nearshore zones from grand traverse
light southward have prompted small craft advisories to be issued
for today... With a more uniform west northwest wind component
developing as the day progresses as a surface low over eastern upper
this morning moves east this afternoon and tonight. Winds are
expected to back more southwesterly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 5 am edt Tuesday
for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Smd
near term... Jpb
short term... Mek
long term... Mek
aviation... Jz
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi72 min W 19 G 23 61°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.4)
45163 16 mi32 min W 16 G 18 61°F 59°F2 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi32 min WSW 16 G 19 60°F 1015.2 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi32 min W 8.9 G 19 61°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi17 minWSW 9 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F50°F58%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
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SW4W6W5SW4CalmCalmSW3SW4CalmSW3SW4SW4SW6W9W9
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1 day agoW8W12
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W6W3W3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW4SW9SW8W7W10
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2 days agoW9W3W8W7NW7NW7NW6NW4NW4W3W3CalmSW3SW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W3W5SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.