Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:58PM Monday March 27, 2017 8:46 AM EDT (12:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 6:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 349 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the morning...then a slight chance of light rain late in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. A slight chance of light rain in the late evening and overnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming mostly Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201703271515;;145387 FZUS53 KDTX 270749 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 349 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ422-271515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 271039
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
639 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 348 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Diminishing precipitation today...

high impact weather potential... Minor light icing in eastern upper
michigan early on.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Filing stacked low pressure system is
tracking up through lower michigan early this morning... Remaining
axis of deformation precip arcs through ontario and back across
eastern/central upper michigan and has been diminishing through
the overnight hours. Meanwhile... Still some spotty showers ongoing
across northern lower michigan. Upstream, another wave/surface low
is moving northeastward through oklahoma and will be tracking
through the lower lakes region tonight.

Today: surface low continues to weaken and track eastward out of
the state. Associated weakening deformation axis/remaining light
precip slides through the region this morning... With gradually
diminishing pops. Some light fzra remains a possibility in eastern
upper, although given quickly diminishing radar returns, any
icing will be minor at this point. Trailing secondary cold front
slides down through northern michigan later in the day and there
may be another band of light showers slide through upper michigan
later in the day into this evening. Otherwise, a good amount fog
remains out there with many locations under 1sm vsby. Not quite
enough to warrant an dense fog advisory, although an sps
highlighting fog seems prudent.

Tonight: upstream short wave/attending surface low will track
through the ohio valley... A little further south than previous
forecasts and appears that precip with this system will miss
northern michigan. So... Other than some light precip possibilities
across upper michigan... Will have a dry forecast.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 348 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Mainly quiet with slightly above normal temps through midweek...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: fairly zonal flow aloft is expected at the start
of the period (Tuesday) across the eastern two-thirds of the conus,
along with canadian high pressure sagging into the northern great
lakes. The only wrinkle being for a pronounced shortwave and
associated developing surface low across the ohio valley. At the
same time, a large scale buckle in the jet stream is evident across
the intermountain west, which is progged to result in cyclogenesis
lee of the rockies on Wednesday before ejecting toward the great
lakes Thursday into Friday. This is expected to provide the next
threat for sensible weather across northern michigan before high
pressure returns once again next weekend.

Primary forecast concerns: aforementioned surface low across the
ohio valley Monday night into Tuesday is expected to stay well south
of the area as high pressure sags into the region from the north and
impedes much northward-moving moisture transport. Perhaps a few
sprinkles survive their way into the far southern portions of the
cwa (south of m-55); however if current trends continue... Gut
feeling that we stay precipitation-free. Otherwise, northern
michigan continues to sit on the southern periphery of high pressure
through at least midweek, ultimately leading to little in the way of
forecast concerns through Thursday. The main story will likely be
increasing sunshine and near to slightly above normal temperatures
across the area with high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to
low 50s... Some 5-10 degrees above the climatological normals of 39
at anj to 44 at tvc.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 348 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
main concern through the extended forecast period focuses around the
Thursday through Friday timeframe as developing low pressure across
the central/southern plains ejects northeastward toward the great
lakes. Deterministic/ensemble model agreement results in a fairly
high confidence forecast with respect to precipitation arriving late
in the day Thursday/Thursday night through Friday; however, as is so
often the case at this timeframe... The details (mainly p-type and
northward extent of precipitation) remain a bit fuzzy. Worth
monitoring in future outlooks as marginal temperatures across the
northern half of the area may result in mixed precip concerns,
especially Thursday night.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 639 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
ifr conditions due to low CIGS and fog will continue to dominate
across northern lower michigan for the next several hours. Fog
will slowly diminish... But it will take until afternoon before
cigs get back up above 1k feet.

Much improved vsbys tonight although CIGS may dip back down to
around or below 1k feet. But drier air overspreads the region late
tonight through Tuesday... Which will ultimately bring big
improvement for Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 348 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
winds/waves expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through Tuesday. Rather foggy conditions on the lakes
this morning. Fog will gradually dissipate as we go through the
day.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Tba
short term... Mjg
long term... Mjg
aviation... Tba
marine... Tba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi46 min W 5.1 G 7 42°F 1010.2 hPa (+1.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi66 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 39°F 1011.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi66 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi52 minSW 42.00 miFog/Mist51°F50°F99%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE6SE7SE5SE5CalmE5SE6S6SE4S3SE3CalmS4S3S3S3SW4SW4S4SW3SW6SW7SW5
1 day agoNE8NE5NE8E9E7NE7E6E7
G14
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E7E6E8E8E7E5E4E6CalmCalmE3E4
2 days agoCalmSW9SW12
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N9
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N6N8E4E3NE3NE3NE3NE6N7NE6NE6NE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.