Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:28PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:14 PM EST (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:39AMMoonset 5:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 957 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon...then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with numerous light snow showers.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the west early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered light snow showers in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming partly cloudy. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201801162215;;536480 FZUS53 KDTX 161457 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 957 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-162215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 161742
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1242 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Update
Issued at 1052 am est Tue jan 16 2018
morning composite analysis reveals a stretched out closed short
wave trough essentially bisecting lower michigan... Extending from
quebec into the central plains... The downstream leg of omega
blocking across the western conus. Associated upper jet core
extends from the central plains through the ohio valley into new
england with the main weather action occurring along and south of
the jet. Smaller scale vorticity MAX spin is evident on satellite
over southern lower michigan this morning with associated surface
low pressure over southern lake huron and some semblance of a
deformation axis wrapping through the saginaw bay osc area and
across central southern lower michigan where there is still some
ongoing lighter snow.

Across northern michigan... Cloud cover has thin cleared out
across interior northern michigan as drier air tries to wedge in
from the north. Lingering northerly flow lake snow showers persist
along the coasts as well as a good portion of the u.P. Some inland
banded stcu flurries also starting to materialize across northern
lower mi per satellite and radar trends.

Northerly flow lake snow showers will persist through the
afternoon before the low level mean flow backs northwesterly this
evening and westerly overnight... As high pressure builds southward
into the central southern plains. Lake effect parameters remain
respectable through the afternoon and into the evening with
plenty of over water instability lake induced CAPE values running
a few hundred j kg. Given the fluff factor we've seen with lake
effect over the last 24 hours... Will have to keep an eye on snow
accumulations for locations across leelanau benzie counties as
well as presque isle alpena counties. I have increased pops and
snow amounts for those areas.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 215 am est Tue jan 16 2018
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
stacked low pressure system was overhead early this morning, with
actual axis of sfc low pressure to our south. However, cyclonic flow
and weak low level convergence was all over NRN michigan, along with
deformation and deeper moisture draped over primarily NRN lower
michigan. Also, E NE flow continues off lake huron. All of the above
are contributing to periodic, and generally light snow. Much less
action in eastern upper michigan with no lake effect in the ene
flow, and further displaced from the deformation deeper moisture.

Temperatures were in the single digits to teens.

Pattern will be very slow to change, but the forcing deeper moisture
will pivot around NE lower through the morning, while gradually
making it's way out of the region late this afternoon and evening.

Forcing from cyclonic flow low level convergence will also wane
through the day. This process will gradually put an end to synoptic
snows. In the meantime, low level flow will back around out of the
north today, and then westerly tonight. Light lake effect will
continue across NE lower into the morning, and then focus more so on
the gtv bay region tonight. No significant accumulations expected,
with most areas at an inch or less. Only localized spots in lake
effect can see a couple inches or so.

Highs in the teens to low 20s with lows tonight a bit trickier.

Single digits most areas, but some clearing tonight, mainly across
ne lower, could bring some negative single digits.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 215 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Cold wind chills despite gradually moderating temperatures...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: by Wednesday morning, deep upper level trough axis
is expected to be centered across the eastern great lakes with
heights gradually rising across northern michigan. Primary features
to note initially focus on an area of low pressure across central
northern ontario with a warm front crossing the area locally during
the day Wednesday. Limited synoptic support moisture will lend
itself to little in the way of sensible weather aside from
increasingly gusty winds as the gradient tightens between the
aforementioned low pressure and strong high pressure centered across
the lower mississippi valley. Another, well-defined, mid-level wave
is set to approach the region late in the day Thursday Thursday
night, but again with anemic moisture yielding little threat for
appreciable precipitation.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: wind chills Wednesday despite
gradually moderating temperatures.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated through the
forecast period. Aforementioned warm front will cross northern
michigan during the day Wednesday aiding to boost daytime high
temperatures into the 20s area-wide. However, gusty winds of 20-30
mph (highest near the lake shores) will keep wind chills in the
single digits below zero early in the day before warming into the
mid-upper single digits above zero to low teens Wednesday afternoon.

No real threat for precip with the front... Perhaps just a few
flurries light snow showers across eastern upper early in the day.

High temps Thursday climb another 5-10 degrees putting many
locations on pace to near the freezing mark (coolest temps will be
across eastern upper and interior locations of northern lower). Well
defined shortwave approaches late in the day Thursday and while
limited moisture suggests little in the way of appreciable precip,
latest trends suggest at least a low threat for scattered snow
showers, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 215 am est Tue jan 16 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal... For now.

Primary focus through the extended period revolves around the late
weekend - early next week timeframe as guidance has been fairly
consistent with the idea of a wave ejecting out of the four-corners
region with cyclogenesis lee of the rockies by Sunday morning. This
wave and strengthening area of low pressure is expected to trek
northeastward toward the western great lakes late in the day Sunday
into Monday. Confidence remains low in the overall track and
strength of this system... Ultimately affecting whether northern
michigan experiences unseasonably mild temperatures and rain or
greater impacts from a wet accumulating snowfall. Definitely a
system worth monitoring over the next week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1242 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
northerly flow light lake snow showers will persist across
northern lower michigan through the afternoon resulting in MVFR
cigs primarily at the TAF sites and occasional reductions in vsby
(particularly at tvc and apn). Flow backs westerly tonight which
will clear things out for pln and apn. But tvc and mbl will
continue to see MVFR CIGS and some light snow showers through
tonight. Warmer air pushes into the region on Wednesday and will
return all TAF sites toVFR.

Marine
Issued at 340 pm est Mon jan 15 2018
gusty se-e winds will back and diminish tonight. Small craft
advisory conditions will persist on lake michigan for much of the
night before subsiding on Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi74 min NNW 11 G 12 19°F 1026.8 hPa (-1.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi34 min NNW 15 G 18 20°F 1027.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi164 min N 7 G 11 20°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi19 minSW 51.00 miLight Snow16°F13°F93%1027.4 hPa

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Last 24hrE8E6E5E5E6E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4
1 day agoSW10SW9
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2 days agoNW4NW3W3W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.