Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:37PM Thursday January 24, 2019 6:16 AM EST (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 10:25AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 329 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers early in the afternoon. Numerous light snow showers late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots after midnight, then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Numerous light snow showers in the evening, then scattered light snow showers after midnight.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with scattered light snow showers until late afternoon, then mostly cloudy late in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201901241615;;840028 FZUS53 KDTX 240829 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 329 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-241615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240905
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
405 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Winter storm has passed, time for the lake effect machine...

high impact weather potential: accumulating lake effect snow across
the snowbelts to end the work week.

Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight composite analysis features
broad long wave troughing across the eastern two-thirds of the
conus. Shearing short-wave trough is progressing through the western
great lakes early this morning and has brought about a flare-up of
lake induced enhanced snow to northern lower michigan. At the
surface, departing surface low is across the ontario quebec
border with attendant cold front stretching south through the
appalachians. Sharp lake aggregate surface troughing extends back
along the north shore of the u.P. With some northerly flow lake
effect impacting parts of the u.P.

Further upstream, another short-wave trough is making it's way
through south central canada in the northern plains. Weak surface
reflection is over SW ontario with a true arctic cold front
extending down through the upper midwest. Colder air has is
horseshoeing it's way around the great lakes, slowed by the great
lakes heat plume. Really cold upstream air is on it's way.

Primary forecast concerns: snow accumulations and headlines as
lake effect snow machine kicks into high gear.

Lead short-wave trough slides east of the region this morning with
a brief interlude of subsidence drier air lowering inversion
heights and downtick in lake induced snows this morning. Thus a
relatively quiet start to the day.

But... Things will go downhill quickly as we get into the afternoon
and particularly tonight. Upstream short-wave trough surface
reflection and sharp arctic boundary will slide through the
region through the afternoon early evening with arctic air then
collapsing into northern michigan tonight. As typically the case,
we will probably have a decent burst of lake enhanced synoptic
snowfall along the sharp boundary as it moves through, which will
bring nearly all areas some snowfall, although better snow
accumulations will be across parts of eastern michigan as well as
northwest lower michigan with enhancement off the lakes and
terrain boost.

Behind the front, lake effect conditions improve dramatically as
temperatures plunge inversion heights are nearly erased and
lake-h8 delta TS climb well into the 20s. Bufkit forecast
soundings show equilibrium levels up over 12k feet and lake
induced CAPE values climbing up over 750 j kg as we go through the
night, all supportive of a period of heavy lake effect snow later
this evening and overnight.

Right now it appears that areas right around grand traverse bay
get the best synoptic lake effect accumulations through tonight
as winds veer sharply nnw behind the front. Lighter snow
accumulations elsewhere, although with the anticipated burst of
snow along the front and gusty winds lake effect that follows,
many areas will end up with impactful winter weather.

As far as headlines are concerned, snow accumulations will likely
flirt with warning criteria across leelanau benzie and grand
traverse counties with the combination of snowfall this afternoon
and lake effect focusing into that area tonight. Combined with
gusty winds blowing snow developing later tonight, plan on
upgrading those counties to a warning. Will keep the rest of the
already issued advisories intact and add a few more counties into
the mix, again for the combination of snow showers gusty winds
and blowing snow.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Brutal cold with chances for snow...

high impact weather potential: wintry travel and extreme cold into
the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperatures and snowfall
through the period.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A deep upper trough will dig into the
region Friday and become anchored over the great lakes and upper
midwest through the weekend. Mid level temperatures in this pattern
will quickly plummet to around -24c Friday and Saturday, which will
generate well below normal temperatures. Daytime highs will only be
in the single digits and overnight lows will near 10 below zero
across all of northern michigan through the weekend. The cold
temperatures will be further heightened Thursday into Friday
afternoon as northwest winds 15 to 25 mph generate well below zero
wind chill readings across all of northern michigan.

There will be several chances for snow heading into the weekend as
cyclonic flow lingers over the great lakes Friday on the backside of
a system exiting the eastern great lakes, before a second feature
drops into the state to begin the weekend. The most persistent snows
and most significant amounts will in favored snow belts of lake
michigan and lake superior through the period.

Highest snowfall amounts appears to be Friday night and early
Saturday as model soundings show northwest 925-850mb winds trending
west Friday afternoon and remaining nearly steady west into Saturday
morning. 925-850mb winds slowly trend southwest Saturday afternoon
in advance of the next clipper dropping into the state. Inversion
heights through the period will be around 7k to 9k ft. However
snowfall amounts will become hindered Saturday as the entire
vertical temp column cools to temps between temps of -15c and -23c.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019
a wintry period to continue across the great lakes with well below
normal temperatures, along with several chances for snow. A 500mb
trough will dig into the great lakes over the weekend, forcing mid
lvl temps to fall to brutally cold readings near -32c Sunday, which
will keep daytime highs in the single digits. Temps remain below
normal across northern michigan to begin the work week before the
coldest air of the season floods into the region Wed and Thursday
(mid lvl temps falling to around -34c). There will be several rounds
of snow over northern michigan during the period, as a system pushes
over the state Sunday before a second system affects the region
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1145 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
low pressure will continue to pull NE away from michigan overnight.

A secondary arctic cold front will sweep thru michigan on
Thursday... Bringing extremely cold air into our region that will
last thru the weekend and thru much of next week. NW flow lake
effect snow showers will continue to develop as colder air
arrives tonight into Thursday. Overall conditions will remain
MVFR... Dropping to ifr within heavier snow showers. NW winds aob
10 kts overnight into Thursday morning will strengthen to 10 to
20 kts with higher gusts Thursday afternoon with the arrival of
the arctic front.

Marine
Issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019
gusty winds develop across the region late this afternoon and
tonight across much of the nearshore areas. Plan to hoist small
craft advisory headlines for most areas.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 7 pm est Friday for
miz008-015>019-021>024-027>029-031>034.

Winter storm warning from noon today to 11 am est Friday for
miz020-025-026.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for lhz345-
347>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est Friday
for lmz323-342-344.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Friday for lmz345-346.

Near term... Ba
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Mr
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi17 min W 12 G 14 25°F 1005.4 hPa (-0.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi37 min WSW 13 G 14 24°F 1005.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi37 min WSW 7 G 9.9 20°F 1004.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N17
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi22 minW 610.00 miOvercast26°F22°F85%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmE3SE4SE6SE5SE6S8S7S6SW7SW13
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W9W8W4W7W7W7W7W6
1 day agoSE7SE8
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S5S5S5S6S7S7S6S4S4S3CalmS5S4
2 days agoNW7NW6NW5W4W5W6W4W4W7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.