Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 6:51PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 3:12 PM EDT (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 11:31PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 309 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.gale warning in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy early in the afternoon becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers early in the morning...then a chance of light showers in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201810170315;;284209 FZUS53 KDTX 161909 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 309 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-170315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 161806
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
206 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Update
Issued at 1110 am edt Tue oct 16 2018

A few showers today, lake effect returns tonight...

morning composite analysis reveals another mid level short-wave
dropping down through W SW ontario. Associated surface low pressure
is located over central ontario with a cold front stretching down
through far western wisconsin eastern minnesota. Narrow thermal
moisture ridge stretches up ahead of the front leaning into the
state and producing some weak-ish qg-forcing for ascent along with
a band of mid and high cloud cover as well as a pocket of
elevated showers streaming through northern lake michigan and the
straits tip of the mitt.

Otherwise, a decent amount of sunshine across the S E part of the
cwa today along with gusty SW winds.

Rest of today: band of warm advection qg-forcing for ascent slides
through and east of the region ahead of front. Strongest forcing
and main chances for rain showers still looking to occur through
eastern upper mi, straits and tip of the mitt, and i've cut pops
back to just those areas for the afternoon. Cold front leans over
through eastern upper and northern lower michigan starting late
this afternoon and through this evening, with another shot of
colder air arriving tonight. Might be some additional shower
activity that develops along the front and down into northern
lower michigan at that point. But much better shower (and
eventually snow shower) chances come tonight as -8c to -10c h8 air
spreads into northern michigan.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 215 am edt Tue oct 16 2018

Breezy with lake enhanced showers increasing today and tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Surface ridge axis is aligned from se
ontario thru the western great lakes into the central plains early
this morning. Residual lake effect clouds are holding over much of
our cwa... Further enhanced by shallow low level moisture spreading
out below the subsidence inversion. Our next low pressure system is
poised over far western ontario attm... With an associated warm front
extending into minnesota and a cold front stretching back to the
west thru western canada. An area of showers has developed ahead of
the warm front... Currently moving thru the arrowhead of minnesota
into NW wisconsin and far western upper michigan. Precip is
currently a mix of rain and snow with temps holding mainly in the
30s in these locations.

The warm front will slide thru our CWA today... With the cold front
quickly following tonight as the parent low tracks eastward thru
ontario into quebec over the next 24 hours. Not a great deal of
moisture to work with in associated with either front... With deeper
moisture holding further north in the vcnty of the surface low
center. Do expect increasing chances of showers today into
tonight... But primary mechanism for precip production will be lake
influences. Initially... This lake enhanced precip will be driven by
sw low level flow ahead of the warm front. Low level wind
trajectories will then shift to the west and eventually later today
and tonight as the cold front sweeps thru the region. SW low level
flow will initial focus highest pops across eastern upper michigan
and the tip of the mitt today... With focus gradually spreading
southward into the typical NW flow regions of northern lower
michigan tonight.

A mix of rain and snow is expected across eastern upper michigan
early this morning... Transitioning to all rain thru the day and into
early evening as WAA continues ahead of the warm front. Rain will
again mix with change to snow later this evening and overnight as
caa commences behind the cold front. Any snow accumulations tonight
will be light... I.E. Well under an inch across northern lower
michigan and an inch or less for eastern upper michigan.

Winds will strengthen as this system impacts our region today.

Temps will moderate a bit today thanks to the arrival of the warm
front. Afternoon highs will be mainly in the upper 40s and lower
50s. CAA tonight will drop overnight lows into the low to mid 30s
across our entire cwa.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday night)
issued at 215 am edt Tue oct 16 2018
high impact weather potential: minor snow accumulations Wednesday,
primarily across eastern upper and interior northern lower.

Pattern synopsis: upper-level troughing will be firmly anchored
overhead during the day Wednesday with low-level cold air advection
continuing to spill unseasonably chilly air into the northern great
lakes. Troughing gradually shifts east Wednesday night with rising
heights aloft and surface high pressure marching into the heart of
the country from the west will become the rule through the day
Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops and snow amounts
Wednesday.

Cold air is expected to be locked overhead at the start of the
forecast period Wednesday with ongoing lake effect rain snow showers
most widespread across northwest flow lake belts of eastern upper
and northwest lower mi. Trends continue to support precipitation
falling as mostly snow, primarily across eastern upper and along
and east of us-131 in north-central and northeast lower, given
model soundings suggesting freezing levels sub 1,000 ft (with a
mix of rain snow closer to the lake mi coast in NW lower).

Boundary layer inversion heights extending upwards of 7-8 kft and
plenty of low level moisture extending through -10 c aids to
support an additional minor accumulation of snow... Up to an inch
or so possible under the steadiest most persistent snow bands
across interior north-central lower and eastern upper, although
there's the possibility of a narrow corridor of 1-3 inches
extending from near whitefish point southeastward toward
rudyard kinross given the low fetch over lake superior and
upstream connection to lake nipigon.

Lake effect shower coverage and intensity is expected to
gradually wane Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night given
drier air intruding in association with aforementioned rising
heights aloft and surface high pressure nosing in from the west.

Will continue to slowly trend pops downward through the
afternoon... Although do expected isolated activity to continue in
a few northwest flow areas right on through sunset before ending
completely.

Quiet weather anticipated through the remainder of the forecast
period Thursday-Thursday night as low-level winds back more
southwesterly aiding to boost high temperatures into the low 50s for
most (some 10-15 degrees warmer than the mid-upper 30 degree highs
expected on Wednesday). Low temperatures Wednesday night into the
chilly 20s for many... Rebounding to the upper 30s-low 40s Thursday
night.

Long term (Friday through Monday)
issued at 215 am edt Tue oct 16 2018
another well-defined trough and associated area of surface low
pressure clipper system will dive south out of canada late in the
week, dragging a cold front through northern michigan late
Friday Friday night. Precipitation chances will be aplenty through
the forecast period as another shot of cold air aloft is ushered in
behind the system leading to more lake effect rain snow showers
continuing at times through the upcoming weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 206 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
low pressure is across ontario with a cold front slicing down
through western upper michigan into wisconsin. Ahead of the front,
narrow corridor of mid and high cloud cover stretches through
northern lower michigan, along with some lower (MVFR) cloud cover
coming off northern lake michigan into the tip of the mitt. But
outside of that,VFR conditions dominate lower michigan.

Cold front will fold down through the region tonight with another
shot of cold air arriving. This will set the stage for lake effect
rain and snow showers to become widespread across northern
michigan later tonight and persisting through Wednesday.

Very gusty winds once again this afternoon with gusts running 25
to 35 knots. Winds diminish some tonight but ramp up again
Wednesday, although gusts will not be as high as today.

Marine
Issued at 215 am edt Tue oct 16 2018
winds and waves will reach gale warning criteria today within our
nearshore areas of northern lake michigan... The straits and along
the far northern shore of lake huron as winds strengthen ahead of an
approaching warm front. Conditions will reach SCA criteria within
the rest of our nearshore areas today. Lake enhanced shower activity
will increase today in SW flow ahead of a warm front... And will
further increase tonight as a cold front passes thru our area.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for lhz347>349.

Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz345-346.

Lm... Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for lsz321-322.

Update... Ba
near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Ba
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi72 min SW 28 G 34 51°F 1012.9 hPa (-3.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi32 min SSW 25 G 31 51°F 1013.2 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi32 min SW 15 G 26 56°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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W10
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G11
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G16
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi17 minSW 17 G 2610.00 miFair54°F30°F41%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
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W8W5W10
G16
W6W4SW4W4SW4SW3SW3SW3SW4SW5S8SW12
G16
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1 day agoS11
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S6SW5S4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW6SW6W9W9W11
G16
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2 days agoW10SW11W6SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW4S3S5S7S7SW9SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.