Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:25PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:54 PM EDT (16:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:59PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 958 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy then mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201904202130;;217020 FZUS53 KDTX 201358 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 958 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-202130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 201526
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1126 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Update
Issued at 1122 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
plenty of sun-filled skies across the area this morning as even
the high clouds near saginaw bay, tied to ohio valley low
pressure, have greatly thinned in the last few hours. Would expect
these to fill in just a bit, with mostly sunny skies prevailing
elsewhere. All that Sun already doing a number on temperatures,
and still expect readings during the afternoon to climb well up
into the 50s (coolest near lake huron), with a few locations
likely topping 60 degrees.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 309 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
high impact weather: minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
really quiet in NRN michigan tonight with very dry air and
relatively higher pressure sneaking in from the west. Skies were
clear and temperatures were cooling decently in most areas. This is
due to weakening N NE winds in many areas, especially low lying
areas away from NE lower where the gradient remained a bit more
tightened. We typically get quite the range under these conditions.

Right now, we have readings ranging from the upper 20s in those low
lying areas, to the lower 40s in some coastal locations. There were
two areas of low pressure. One was lifting slowly north from the
ohio valley and the other moving east through far NRN ontario. The
one lifting from the ohio valley, was resulting in plenty of showers
across the eastern part of the conus. Part of these showers were
pressing north toward the thumb of lower michigan.

Not much in the way will occur today. The very dry air mass will
slowly drift in over NRN michigan today and tonight. Very sunny
skies expected across most of NRN michigan. Across portions of far
ne lower, some thicker cloud cover will arrive later today, but
latest trends suggest that there is very little chance for those
showers to reach the SE cwa. These clouds will slide east of ne
lower tonight, while weak low pressure works across upper michigan.

The air mass will gradually moisten ahead of this low pressure, but
this will mainly occur in the mid and upper levels resulting in
increased cloud cover.

Highs today will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s in most
areas, to as low as the lower half of the 50s across a good chunk
of NE lower. Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower to middle 30s,
with some potential upper 20s in low lying areas.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 309 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The overall pattern looks to be evolving
as expected for the next few days. The zonal flow just north of the
border(canada) looks to continue based on the SREF gfs ECMWF 500 mb
patterns through 12z tues. So the details look like this... Sunday
morning, the moisture is returning along the zonal jet stream at 500
mb along with the thermal ridge nosing into ontario lake superior
and along the warm front that is setting up, that stretches back
into the plains. Through the day, the pattern sinks south a bit, as
the 500 mb trough in the west begins to rotate into the desert sw,
and the eastern 500 mb low is beginning to fill and move a bit ne
off new england. As the moisture returns along the warm front, the
chance for rain showers increases, but with the zonal flow, and the
lack of vigorous shortwaves, rain showers fairly scattered through
Sunday night and into Monday morning. The pattern and scattered
showers look to continue into Tuesday morning as the desert SW low
continues to dig and rotate, and the eastern low moves off shore.

Primary forecast concerns... The showers look mainly scattered, but
the main concern would be if we could get any thunder. Models show
weak jet streaks at 500 mb with the peak winds around 35-40 knots
through the period, and little CAPE or elevated CAPE (mucape between
50-150j kg). So will don't think thunder is likely, but there is a
small chance.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 309 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

The western 500 mb trough digs into the desert SW while the
eastern low has departed the conus. This allows the jet stream to
sink south a bit, and allow for some drier air to settle into the
upper great lakes Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Thursday, the scattered showers are back as a 500 mb jet streak
noses into the upper great lakes. However, the duration of the
showers is in dispute between the wetter GFS and the drier ecwmf.

The difference today is the ECMWF has moved the desert SW low into
the gulf states, and deepened it. This slows the pattern down as
the 500 mb shortwave moving through the upper great lakes is
connected to the gulf low. This keeps the energy with the 500 mb
low, than with the shortwave in the great lakes, and keeps us
drier than the GFS solution. By Friday, things dry out, but
another shortwave begins to move into the upper great lakes as it
moves out of the 500 mb ridge in the rockies.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 648 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
low pressure in the ohio valley will lift up into the eastern great
lakes tonight. SolidVFR conditions will dominate all airports over
this TAF period, with only some increased mid and upper clouds late
tonight, ahead of a cold front that settles in for Sunday. Winds may
be a tad gusty out of the NE today, but lighten up and become more
variable tonight.

Marine
Issued at 309 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
low pressure in the ohio valley will lift up through the eastern
great lakes through Sunday, when a cold front falls into northern
michigan and stalls out for Sunday night when there will also be a
chance for showers. Advisory level NE winds will still impact lake
huron nearshore waters south of alpena for today, before winds
become light and more variable with the incoming cold front.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for lhz348-349.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... mb
near term... Smd
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi54 min NE 23 G 29 42°F 1008.1 hPa (+0.3)
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi74 min NNE 13 G 22 46°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
N21
G26
N19
G25
N20
N21
G26
N22
G27
N22
G27
N18
G24
N21
N22
N18
N21
N20
N22
NE19
G25
N20
NE21
NE23
NE23
G28
NE21
NE21
NE20
N20
N23
G29
N20
1 day
ago
S14
G18
S11
G17
SW12
G20
S14
G20
S13
G18
NW19
G23
N12
G17
NW8
NW5
NW6
N11
G16
N13
G17
NW6
N16
N15
G20
N17
G22
N16
N17
G24
N20
G25
N20
N21
N22
G28
N13
G21
N19
G24
2 days
ago
NE4
NE3
NE4
NE2
N3
N3
NE7
G10
E10
G14
E14
SE19
SE17
SE15
SE14
S18
G23
SE11
SE14
S15
G19
SW13
G18
SW11
G15
SW13
G16
SW13
G19
SW11
G14
SW10
G14
S8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi59 minN 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast43°F37°F81%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrN10
G20
N13
G19
N13
G21
N12
G22
N11
G20
N12
G19
N13
G22
N10
G17
N10
G17
N9
G17
N8N9
G15
N10
G15
N7
G14
N8
G14
N7N6N8N7
G15
NE6N10
G21
N13
G18
N14
G21
N14
G20
1 day agoS15
G19
S10
G18
S10S12
G19
W11
G18
W7W6W8W8W10NW9NW7NW7NW7N8N7N10
G17
N13
G20
N10
G15
N7
G15
N9
G19
N10
G19
N9
G19
N12
G23
2 days agoE10
G17
SE8
G15
E6E8E9
G15
E6SE3E4SE10
G16
SE8
G17
SE10
G17
SE9
G16
S10
G19
S12
G16
S13
G18
S10
G17
S10
G15
S13
G18
S9S10
G15
S9
G15
S5
G14
S8S8
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.