Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sebewaing, MI
May 18, 2024 10:56 PM EDT (02:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 3:11 PM Moonset 2:53 AM |
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 947 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 190151 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 951 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm for a few more days.
- Chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight.
- Chances for showers and storms Monday through Wednesday with the potential for stronger storms Tuesday night.
UPDATE
Issued at 951 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Upstream cold front has reached Central Wisconsin late this evening. Several areas of convection continue to fire along and ahead of this front...impacting Western Upper Michigan and Central Wisconsin attm. Storms have been strong to at times severe...fueled by a narrow but potent instability axis featuring MUCAPES nearing 2000 J/kg and LI's of -5. Primary severe wx threat has been large hail per LSRs from upstream offices. SPC Meso Analysis shows a very stable and rather dry environment across our entire CWA attm. As this cold front swings thru our CWA overnight...do expect some destabilization and low level moistening ahead of it...but FROPA during diurnal instability minimum combined with only limited moist advection ahead of it should keep any thunder that does develop below severe limits.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Pattern/Synopsis: 995mb low pressure is north of Winnipeg, lifting northward. An associated cold front curves to the se and s, pushing out of MN and into WI. Warm advection ahead of the front is stronger w of Lake MI than here on our side. This front will cross northern MI overnight into Sunday morning.
Forecast: A warm day across most of the area. GLR hit 80f at 2pm, the first 80 since October of last year. Se winds off of Lk Huron is maintaining cooler readings near that lake, on up into eastern upper MI. Also plenty of stratus/fog in the marine layer on Lk Huron, right up to our coastlines. Some cu inland over ne lower MI, otherwise little cloud cover and no precip.
There are some showers ahead of the front in parts of WI and western upper MI.
A narrow axis of MlCape values around 1500j/kg is upstream, just ahead of the front. Strong/svr storms could fire there, and SPC has a slight svr risk. But we have a lot less instability here, and an unfavorable overnight fropa as for timing. And with the system lifting northward, the trailing front is getting increasingly strung out, with weakening low-level convergence.
Precip chances in this forecast area are highest in eastern upper MI, from very late evening onward. Smaller pops for northern lower MI, all after midnight. Chance for thunder will be present, but this elevated and weakening convection should not be severe. Expect precip to entirely depart or dissipate by 8am. Some fog will get left behind, especially in eastern upper MI and near Lk Huron.
Min temps in the 50s.
Sunday: Fog/stratus will potentially be an issue to start the day in the north and east. Weak cool/dry advection and light nw winds is found across the area by late morning. Should have no trouble transitioning to abundant sunshine again, which will more than counter that cold advection. An axis of instability will develop downstate as the front lays over, but this is increasingly likely to remain south of our area. Have removed chances for precip in se areas Sunday afternoon.
For fire wx interests: some very low RH values are possible tomorrow. Using favored NBM10% guidance take after dew points down to the lower 30s, and RHs in the vicinity of 20% across much of the area. Nw post-frontal winds should remain light, and thus will not advertise elevated fire danger at this time. But it was considered.
Max temps from low 70s far north (ANJ) to mid 80s far se (Gladwin/W Branch).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Unsettled conditions expected to start off next week as a cold front stalls and becomes stationary downstate. A trough and its associated surface low is projected to track into the Midwest resulting in a slug of moisture being brought into the area for Monday/ Tuesday, leading to rain chances and possible embedded thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be warmer to start off next week with daytime highs in the 70s/ 80s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for mid-week next week (50s/ 60s).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Chances for showers and storms Monday through Wednesday with the potential for stronger storms Tuesday night: A digging trough and its associated surface low will bring ample moisture into the region and will work in contingent with a stationary frontal boundary that is expected to be shoved northward into Northern Michigan through Monday to produce rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. Guidance continues to hone in on a wave of energy that will track through the region Monday night into early Tuesday, which could present the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Attention then quickly turns to a potential surface low passing into the vicinity of western Lake Superior and a cold frontal passage with decent forcing present. It is still too far out to make any definitive conclusions about this set-up, but this is definitely something to watch as it has the potential to create strong thunderstorms, especially Tuesday night.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 703 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
A cold front will sweep thru Northern Michigan tonight...
generating a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact our area overnight. Greatest chance for convection will be across Eastern Upper and far Northern Lower Michigan where lift and instability will be strongest. Conditions will drop to MVFR within some of the heavier showers/storms...and some stratus and patchy fog are expected to develop again late tonight into early Sunday across Eastern Upper and NE Lower Michigan. SE wind under 10 kts tonight will shift to the N/NW around 10 kts behind the cold front on Sunday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 951 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm for a few more days.
- Chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight.
- Chances for showers and storms Monday through Wednesday with the potential for stronger storms Tuesday night.
UPDATE
Issued at 951 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Upstream cold front has reached Central Wisconsin late this evening. Several areas of convection continue to fire along and ahead of this front...impacting Western Upper Michigan and Central Wisconsin attm. Storms have been strong to at times severe...fueled by a narrow but potent instability axis featuring MUCAPES nearing 2000 J/kg and LI's of -5. Primary severe wx threat has been large hail per LSRs from upstream offices. SPC Meso Analysis shows a very stable and rather dry environment across our entire CWA attm. As this cold front swings thru our CWA overnight...do expect some destabilization and low level moistening ahead of it...but FROPA during diurnal instability minimum combined with only limited moist advection ahead of it should keep any thunder that does develop below severe limits.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Pattern/Synopsis: 995mb low pressure is north of Winnipeg, lifting northward. An associated cold front curves to the se and s, pushing out of MN and into WI. Warm advection ahead of the front is stronger w of Lake MI than here on our side. This front will cross northern MI overnight into Sunday morning.
Forecast: A warm day across most of the area. GLR hit 80f at 2pm, the first 80 since October of last year. Se winds off of Lk Huron is maintaining cooler readings near that lake, on up into eastern upper MI. Also plenty of stratus/fog in the marine layer on Lk Huron, right up to our coastlines. Some cu inland over ne lower MI, otherwise little cloud cover and no precip.
There are some showers ahead of the front in parts of WI and western upper MI.
A narrow axis of MlCape values around 1500j/kg is upstream, just ahead of the front. Strong/svr storms could fire there, and SPC has a slight svr risk. But we have a lot less instability here, and an unfavorable overnight fropa as for timing. And with the system lifting northward, the trailing front is getting increasingly strung out, with weakening low-level convergence.
Precip chances in this forecast area are highest in eastern upper MI, from very late evening onward. Smaller pops for northern lower MI, all after midnight. Chance for thunder will be present, but this elevated and weakening convection should not be severe. Expect precip to entirely depart or dissipate by 8am. Some fog will get left behind, especially in eastern upper MI and near Lk Huron.
Min temps in the 50s.
Sunday: Fog/stratus will potentially be an issue to start the day in the north and east. Weak cool/dry advection and light nw winds is found across the area by late morning. Should have no trouble transitioning to abundant sunshine again, which will more than counter that cold advection. An axis of instability will develop downstate as the front lays over, but this is increasingly likely to remain south of our area. Have removed chances for precip in se areas Sunday afternoon.
For fire wx interests: some very low RH values are possible tomorrow. Using favored NBM10% guidance take after dew points down to the lower 30s, and RHs in the vicinity of 20% across much of the area. Nw post-frontal winds should remain light, and thus will not advertise elevated fire danger at this time. But it was considered.
Max temps from low 70s far north (ANJ) to mid 80s far se (Gladwin/W Branch).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Unsettled conditions expected to start off next week as a cold front stalls and becomes stationary downstate. A trough and its associated surface low is projected to track into the Midwest resulting in a slug of moisture being brought into the area for Monday/ Tuesday, leading to rain chances and possible embedded thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be warmer to start off next week with daytime highs in the 70s/ 80s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for mid-week next week (50s/ 60s).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Chances for showers and storms Monday through Wednesday with the potential for stronger storms Tuesday night: A digging trough and its associated surface low will bring ample moisture into the region and will work in contingent with a stationary frontal boundary that is expected to be shoved northward into Northern Michigan through Monday to produce rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. Guidance continues to hone in on a wave of energy that will track through the region Monday night into early Tuesday, which could present the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Attention then quickly turns to a potential surface low passing into the vicinity of western Lake Superior and a cold frontal passage with decent forcing present. It is still too far out to make any definitive conclusions about this set-up, but this is definitely something to watch as it has the potential to create strong thunderstorms, especially Tuesday night.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 703 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
A cold front will sweep thru Northern Michigan tonight...
generating a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact our area overnight. Greatest chance for convection will be across Eastern Upper and far Northern Lower Michigan where lift and instability will be strongest. Conditions will drop to MVFR within some of the heavier showers/storms...and some stratus and patchy fog are expected to develop again late tonight into early Sunday across Eastern Upper and NE Lower Michigan. SE wind under 10 kts tonight will shift to the N/NW around 10 kts behind the cold front on Sunday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 4 mi | 57 min | SE 15G | 71°F | 29.84 | |||
| 45163 | 16 mi | 37 min | SE 7.8G | 65°F | 1 ft | 29.89 | ||
| GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 19 mi | 77 min | ESE 16G | 71°F | 29.88 | |||
| TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI | 36 mi | 77 min | E 4.1G | 59°F | 29.88 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCFS TUSCOLA AREA,MI | 24 sm | 21 min | SSE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 63°F | 83% | 29.90 |
Detroit, MI,
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