Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 8:06PM Sunday March 26, 2017 12:53 PM EDT (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:01AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 1035 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots veering southwest late at night, then veering northwest 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Cloudy with a chance of showers. Areas of fog overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201703262115;;109876 FZUS53 KGRR 261435 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1035 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ848-262115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 261457
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1057 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 317 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
rain will continue today and tonight as low pressure moves across
lower michigan. The rain will taper off Monday morning but then
another low approaches by Monday afternoon with more wet weather.

High pressure and drier weather arrives on Tuesday.

Update
Issued at 1057 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
not much change to the forecast needed this morning. We have more
widespread showers flowing in over the area out ahead of the
surface front that is current positioned over central indiana. We
expect showers to be plentiful through the early afternoon hours
before the deeper moisture departs. Then we will see more of the
convective type pcpn develop in association with the upper low
that is currently over il.

We are not expecting much in the way of sunshine to help
destabilize the atmosphere. Some instability will be present as
some warmer air advects in and the the upper low moves overhead.

Fcst instability parameters shows we could see a few hundred j/kg
of CAPE at best, which is maybe a bit overdone given the models
are over-forecasting temps to start with this morning. The
soundings show this CAPE is a bit thin on the soundings, and wind
shear is lacking.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 317 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
kept categorical pops much of today as southerly fetch of deep
moisture continues along with isentropic ascent north of sfc warm
front. The front lifts north by afternoon with enough instability
to bring back the chance of thunder across the southern half of
the forecast area this afternoon.

Sfc low tracks across lower michigan and pulls away to the
northeast tonight with some drying out by Monday morning. This is
short lives as another low ejecting out of the base the longwave
western CONUS trough quickly follows for Monday afternoon and
night. The precip shield is progged to extend into the southern
half of the forecast area as the sfc center tracks just south of
lower michigan.

Northerly flow and drying/sfc ridging will arrive on the back side
of the low on Tuesday with showers ending by afternoon.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 317 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
fair wx will finally return Tuesday night through midweek as a
canadian high pressure ridge to the north takes hold of our wx
pattern. Temperatures will return to near normal for this time of
year by midweek as well.

A bit more uncertainty now exists in terms of the fcst for late
in the week as the operational 00z GFS guidance solution now
suggests that the ridge would remain in control of our wx pattern
through Thursday and Friday with the low pressure system emerging
out of the southern plains states staying well south of our region
late in the week.

Conversely the 00z ECMWF guidance still suggests that the low
pressure system will move much further north and bring our area rain
late in the week. This notion has been supported by a consensus of
most medium range guidance the past several days and the evolution
of the upper level pattern late in the week also favors this
scenario.

Therefore we see the 00z GFS as an outlier solution and we will
maintain chc pops for rain late in the week. Temps should remain
rather close to normal for this time of year late in the week into
next weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 942 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
i updated the tafs to change the timing of rainfall at all of the
sites, adjust ceiling forecasts and add dense fog tonight.

Based on what I see on radar and is forecast by the high
resolution models, the primary band of rain assoicated with the
system will move through the TAF sites in the 15z to 21z time
frame. I adjusted the tafs to best match what I believe will be
the timing of the rain.

Will there be thunderstorms? Seems to this forecaster there is an
extensive cloud cover over the entire area and it does not seem to
me we will get much in the way of holes in the clouds. The high
resolution models and the SPC sref agree the best instability
will stay well south of our cwa. Maybe jxn may be on the northwest
edge of significant instability from mid afternoon into early
this evening but that is questionable. So I did not put vcts in
any of the tafs but it would seem jxn and lan would be the most
likely tafs to get a thunderstorm of all of our TAF sites this
afternoon and early this evening.

As for fog, well the surface low tracks trough the CWA tonight and
brings light winds over an area that is very wet and will remain
very wet. However it is questionable if the sky will clear. Also
there is still 10 to 20 knots in the boundary layer until around
09z. So there will be significant mixing till then. However after
that it would seem dense fog would be likely. I added that to most
of the TAF sites.

Marine
Issued at 715 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
winds have diminished and the small craft advisory is cancelled.

Do not expect any waves to winds to pose a hazard to small craft
through Monday night.

Hydrology
Issued at 307 pm edt Sat mar 25 2017
locally over one inch of rain has fallen particularly over the
eastern reaches of the grand river, as well as the thornapple river,
maple river, looking glass river, and sycamore creek. Additional
rainfall through Sunday will continue to aid in boosting river
levels for these areas. Above bankfull rises are anticipated over
the next few days for ionia, hastings, maple rapids, eagle, and
holt. Another round of rain toward the end of the week may ensure
that these rivers remain near or above bankfull. We will continue to
monitor the trends.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Njj
synopsis... Ostuno
short term... Ostuno
long term... Laurens
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Ostuno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 12 mi54 min E 9.9 G 15 43°F 41°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi74 min E 6 G 9.9 42°F 1013.5 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 33 mi74 min E 1.9 G 8 42°F 1013.9 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi44 min ESE 8.9 G 14 44°F 1012.8 hPa42°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi59 minE 85.00 miFog/Mist43°F42°F99%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13
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1 day agoNW8N9N9N7CalmN10N8
G16
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G14
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2 days agoSE8
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S6S7CalmSE7
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SE9S4S5SW9
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S7S7SW7S7S5SW12SW8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.