Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:43PM Friday August 18, 2017 6:09 PM EDT (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:18AMMoonset 5:30PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 348 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Through early evening..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. A slight chance of showers until midday. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201708190815;;585401 FZUS53 KGRR 181948 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 348 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-190815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 181928
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
328 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 328 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight into Saturday. Scattered
showers and perhaps a clap of thunder will move in mainly after
midnight, then end Saturday morning. Clearing skies can be expected
into Saturday afternoon, which will lead to a quiet Saturday night
through Sunday night time frame.

Another period of showers and storms will be possible Monday and
Tuesday, before drying out again for the remainder of the work week.

Temperatures will remain near or a bit above normal through Tuesday,
with daytime highs mainly 80 to 85. Then we should cool into the
70s for Wednesday through Friday.

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 328 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
a deepening short wave will cross SW mi late tonight into early
Saturday. A few showers and storms will be scattered about with
this feature, then the rest of the short term will be dry.

The short wave has showers and a few storms with it over mn ia mo
this afternoon. These will move east and arrive into SW mi after
03z. The highest concentration of pcpn should be over the far
southern CWA toward i-94, but I have introduced low pops over the
northern CWA due to the large north south sprawl of pcpn that the
wave has with it as of this afternoon.

The wave will be over the CWA at 12z sat, so expect the scattered
showers to linger into Saturday, especially south and east of grr.

However as the wave heads east we will see clearing skies from west
to east toward the noon hour. All areas should become mostly sunny
through the afternoon, making for a nice ending to the day, with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

High pressure builds in behind the system for Saturday night and
Sunday. Sunday will be a touch warmer, in the low and mid 80s, with
plenty of sunshine. Clouds will increase from the NW Sunday night
as a cold front is expected to reach central wi by daybreak Monday.

Pcpn is expected to hold off until at least Monday as this should be
a slow moving front.

Long term (Monday through Friday)
issued at 328 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
two issues to focus on in the extended, first is the cloud forecast
for the partial solar eclipse that will be visible across west
michigan Monday afternoon and then the potential for severe
thunderstorms on Tuesday.

For Monday, the sfc high is retreating and a broad area of warm
advection is setting up with showers and thunderstorms forecast to
form Sunday night across wisconsin in area of mid level isentropic
ascent north of a warm front extending from nebraska to southern
wisconsin. These storms should dissipate as they move east Monday
morning with the weakening of the low level jet, but additional
storms are expected to fire up by the late morning across wisconsin
and move east, reaching western zones during the afternoon.

At this point, model forecast soundings show the potential for a
layer of mid to high clouds during the afternoon that could at least
partially obscure the eclipse across western lower michigan. This
will in large part depend not only on the timing for the daytime
convection, but the amount of debris clouds remaining from the
previous night's storms. Overall it appears the better viewing
conditions will be further east across lower michigan as the clouds
are moving in from the west.

One thing worth mentioning here is that even thick cirrostratus
clouds wouldn't necessarily ruin the show as the partially eclipsed
sun may still be visible, but if combined with even a thin deck of
mid level clouds such as a layer of altocumulus could obscure it.

For Tuesday, flat upper ridging begins to get replaced by an
amplifying trough and impressive height falls for this time of year
occur late Tuesday into Wednesday. This is attended by strong speed
shear and if there is enough instability Tuesday afternoon and
evening, a line of strong to severe storms could form along or out
ahead of the cold front.

Cooler and dry weather follows for the rest of the week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 152 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
west winds will gust over 20 knots at times this afternoon then
decrease to less than 10 knots this evening. There will be areas
of ceilings with bases around 3280 feet this afternoon thenVFR is
expected this evening.

Low stratus with ceilings around 1500 feet are possible early
Saturday morning along with visbys in the 3 to 5 mile range but
conditions should improve toVFR by 18z Saturday.

Marine
Issued at 328 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
west northwest winds are tailing off this afternoon, and will
continue to do so into the evening. Buoys show waves were 3 to 5
feet as of 19z, down from a high of around 7 feet during the mid
morning. The downward trend will continue, and a 9 pm ending time
for the small craft advisory and beach hazards still looks good.

Lower winds and waves are expected through the rest of weekend.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from roughly 11 pm through 6
am tonight, otherwise fair weather will prevail into Sunday night.

Hydrology
Issued at 329 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
rivers continue running well within their banks and that is the
expectation this weekend as well. The flows at most sites are near
to below normal. Rises on at least the small rivers and streams look
possible for the middle of next week based on medium range guidance
qpf. An inch or more of rainfall is certainly a possibility Monday
night into Tuesday night.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for miz037-
043-050-056-064-071.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Jk
short term... Jk
long term... Ostuno
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 12 mi51 min W 5.1 G 7 69°F 60°F
45024 15 mi39 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 69°F3 ft1011.2 hPa62°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi89 min WNW 8 G 8.9 69°F 1010.5 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 33 mi89 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 68°F 1009.5 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi39 min WNW 14 G 17 69°F 1010.2 hPa63°F
45161 42 mi49 min W 14 G 16 69°F 70°F1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi74 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast67°F60°F77%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS17
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E7SE6SE5SE7SE7SE8SE7SE7S7S6S7SW8SW12
G16
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G19
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G20
S16
G22
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G24
2 days agoNW6N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmW6W4SW6W6W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.