Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:13PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 12:15 AM EDT (04:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:43AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 956 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A chance of light showers until midday, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201705240915;;106933 FZUS53 KGRR 240156 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 956 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ848-240915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 232353
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
753 pm edt Tue may 23 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm edt Tue may 23 2017
rain showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into the evening
hours before tapering off to some light showers overnight. A low
pressure system will strengthen over the ohio valley tonight and
slowly lift north into the great lakes region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will accompany
the low from Wednesday into Thursday. Locally heavy rain is possible
from Wednesday night into Thursday across southern lower michigan.

Rain chances will persist into the holiday weekend with showery
conditions at times and near normal temperatures.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 330 pm edt Tue may 23 2017
upper trough to the west this evening continues to funnel moisture
northward into the great lakes region. The upper trough slowly moves
east through the area over the next couple of days. So, chances for
showers and some thunderstorms will continue in the forecast.

Thunderstorm chances return again on Wednesday as CAPE values
increase to around 1000 j kg again. Not expecting enough instability
for severe weather on Wednesday given the clouds and precipitation,
but we do have 30-40 knots of deep layer shear so there may be some
storm organization.

The best chances for rain look to come Wednesday night into Thursday
as a trowel sets up across southern lower michigan. Models are still
indicating some one inch total rainfall amounts in and near southern
lower michigan. We will slowly dry out from Thursday into Thursday
night as ridging begins to slide in from the west.

Bottom line, fairly wet and slightly cooler than normal.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 330 pm edt Tue may 23 2017
confidence is fairly high that Friday will be a dry day due to
shortwave ridging behind the departing upper low, although cloud
cover is more uncertain. Low clouds on the back side of the old
upper low should depart dissipate in the morning, but may be quickly
replaced with mid high clouds streaming in from the west in the
afternoon.

Ecmwf and canadian solutions now show southern lower michigan being
impacted by a sfc low tracking south of mi on Friday night and
Saturday morning. Will need to include some chance pops for this
feature near and south of i-96 however it should be moving fast
enough to provide at least a partly sunny afternoon on Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Could see a round of storms roll through on Saturday night into
Sunday morning as the next digging upper trough upstream approaches
from the west. It will cool off a bit behind the related sfc
trough cold front, but it may also dry out and be a decent day with
stable westerly low level in it's wake.

General cold advection and upper troughing pattern develops as we
head into memorial day. This should lead to cooler than normal temps
again along with a risk of showers.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 753 pm edt Tue may 23 2017
vfr conditions will prevail this evening with some lowering
ceilings slowly moving in from the west overnight and ceilings
are expected to decrease after 06z to 1500 to 2500 feet across
western lower michigan then spread east during the day.

Some thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday with the greatest
chance during the afternoon. Winds will be north to northeast
generally below 10 knots.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm edt Tue may 23 2017
a strengthening low to our south tonight and Wednesday will increase
northerly winds on lake michigan. At this point thinking the higher
winds and waves will remain off shore of our nearshore waters. So,
not expecting to need small craft advisory at this point. The
strongest winds look to be in the Wednesday night and Thursday time
frame where open water winds may reach the 15 to 30 knot range.

Thinking the nearshore waters will again remain just below advisory
criteria with north winds of 10 to 20 knots and waves of 2 to 4 feet
at times.

Hydrology
Issued at 330 pm edt Tue may 23 2017
while many rivers across west michigan continue to run at above
normal levels... A falling trend should continue through Wednesday.

Areas of light rain will persist through Wednesday morning but
should not impact river stages. The rainfall event from Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday... However... Is more likely to produce
significant runoff... Which could produce a new round of rises on
area rivers. Latest guidance suggests that the heaviest rainfall
will occur over the upper portions of the grand and kalamazoo river
basins.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... Meade
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Mws
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 12 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 54°F 52°F
45024 15 mi26 min Calm G 1.9 47°F 46°F1 ft1008.9 hPa47°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi36 min Calm G 2.9 49°F 1007.8 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 33 mi36 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 55°F 1007.1 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi26 min E 4.1 G 7 58°F 1006 hPa52°F
45161 42 mi136 min NE 5.8 G 5.8 55°F 51°F1 ft1006.6 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi21 minN 03.00 miRain53°F52°F100%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmE4SE4SE3CalmS3S4S3SW7S3CalmW4W6SW5SW8SW4W6CalmN3NE3CalmCalm
1 day agoSW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.