Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 7:39PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:57 AM EDT (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 5:52AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 849 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Cloudy. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Patchy fog through the night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers until midday, then a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201809240915;;110289 FZUS53 KGRR 240049 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 849 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-240915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 240551
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
151 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 100 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
overall the next week or so will be on the wet side. However
tonight will be mostly clear and cool with lows from the 40s to
near 50. Monday will see clouds move in from the south and highs
in the lower 70s. Then a system tracking north northeast from the
western gulf of mexico will bring locally heavy rain Monday night.

Tuesday will be partly cloudy and warm but then a strong cold
front pushing through the area early Wednesday morning could bring
locally strong thunderstorms and additional heavy rain. Cool and
dry weather will follow for Wednesday. Then an even stronger cold
front will bring showers Thursday and when that front stalls out
just to our south over the weekend we will see overrunning rains
for both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal
over the weekend.

Update
Issued at 839 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
based on the clear skies... Light winds and low dewpoints it looks
like temperatures will end up a little lower than previously
forecasted... Especially in rural areas. I lowered values a few
degrees for most places.

Discussion (this evening through next Sunday)
issued at 232 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
overall I see the next week as a rather stormy period. We will be
on the edge between very cold polar air (mostly staying north of
the canadian border) and subtropical air trapped under the
subtropical high which will remain parked just off shore of the se
conus through this coming weekend. Several shortwaves on the
northern stream will continue to dig south into central and
northern plains while that subtropical high remains just off
shore. Later in the week, the merging of two huge pacific storms
will significantly amplify the upper ridge over western north
america and that will set the stage for a prolonged period of rain
and maybe even some snow later into the weekend into next week.

Of course this far out the timing is hard to pin down but given
all that cold air near us and the gulf being open to bring moist
air north, it is hard to imagine next week will not be very wet.

In the short term we have a subtropical system that was over the
western gulf being brought north on the west side of the
aforementioned subtropical high. That happens while a digging
northern stream wave pushes toward the great lakes. This gives us
to precipitation events. The first is Monday night as the souther
stream system head northeast toward the southern great lakes.

Once again the high resolution models are showing bands of 2 to 4
inches of rain and we have seen all summer long this does mean
bands of heavy rain tomorrow night over our area. It is more a
question of where than if.

Once that system is out of the way the northern stream system digs
into all of the deep moisture that remains behind the subtropical
system. This means strong vertical shear, the jet entrance region
lift and strong cold front. This could be a nighttime severe
event but since it is at night the surface based CAPE is rather
low, so we will have to see how this plays out. If nothing else it
will be a heavy rain event once again.

Then we get a break for 36 hours but another stronger northern
stream system comes into the area for Thursday into Friday. Our
pops are not nearly high enough for this event, we will get
showers from this one too. Over time we will see the models dig
that shortwave more strongly.

Then we wait for the overrunning event that sets up later in the
weekend into the following week. This time there will be enough
cold air that it would not be out of the question part of our cwa
could see some wet snow.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 151 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
skc won't last much longer. Short term models are suggesting
pockets of MVFR clouds developing early this morning (before
daybreak) especially around jxn but could also extend into the
other TAF sites as well. Even if that doesn't develop, there is
high confidence that MVFR ceilings move in from south to north
between 15z and 20z, then lowering to ifr within a few hours. May
see lifr ceilings Monday night. Scattered showers are expected
this afternoon and evening. 5 to 10 knot winds from the east
gradually shift southeast then south over the next 24 hours.

Marine
Issued at 232 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
more than likely we will need marine headlines in the Wednesday
time frame as the cold air surges in behind that next cold front.

Until then through winds and waves should remain below criteria.

Hydrology
Issued at 956 am edt Sun sep 23 2018
rivers are running around to a little above normal for the time of
year. Levels are steady or slowly falling, and are well below flood
stage. Dry weather is expected into Monday. Under an inch of rain is
possible Monday into Tuesday, with no flooding expected.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Mjs
synopsis... Wdm
discussion... Wdm
aviation... Cas
hydrology... 63
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 12 mi39 min 55°F 48°F
45024 15 mi27 min E 16 G 19 58°F 61°F2 ft1021.4 hPa52°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi77 min E 13 G 19 56°F 1022.7 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi27 min ESE 8 G 11 58°F 1022.5 hPa50°F
45161 42 mi37 min ESE 9.7 G 12 56°F 58°F1 ft

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi62 minE 410.00 miFair51°F48°F89%1022 hPa

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmW3SW5W5W5W5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4
1 day agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmW3W4CalmW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS19
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N4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.