Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 3:03 AM   Moonset 1:12 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots veering south 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday - South winds around 15 knots veering north late in the day. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing northwest 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 020747 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 347 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for thunderstorms later today into Friday

- Warm and Mostly Dry Weekend

- Showers and Storms Tuesday/Tuesday Night

DISCUSSION
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

- Chance for thunderstorms later today into Friday

The first half of the day today should continue where Wednesday left off with mild temperatures and some cloud cover in place. We will see some smaller rain chances start to develop after noon for areas further North and West. The reason this is the case is that the low level jet that will be driving this round of showers and storms will be focused much more to our NW. In addition, the lower level moisture is lacking here, with a good deal of mid clouds moving through. This is likely to result in a few sprinkles/light showers falling from a mid cloud deck.

The best chance for rain will come later this evening and last through Friday morning before starting to push east of the forecast area. This is when the last part of the low level jet is exiting the area, and moisture pooling ahead of the sfc front will be sufficient for rain to be likely.

Thunder chances start to move over the area this afternoon, once again further NW, closer to the low level jet and the better moisture and warmth aloft. Some of the convection allowing models are trying to bring MU CAPEs up into the 1500 J/kg toward midnight tonight, supporting a thunder mention. The amount of instability is likely what the Marginal Risk from the SPC is focused on. It is a pretty healthy amount of instability present.

The limiting factors that will keep the storms likely on the more tame side is due to the upper wave staying well west of the area.
This track will also take the core of the low level jet further west. The entire system will take its time to move through the entire area with the front almost nearly parallel to the upper flow.

- Warm and Mostly Dry Weekend

A secondary weak sfc cold front is shown to slowly drift in from the west over the weekend as the nrn Plains upper low/trough moves to Hudson Bay. Only 20-30 pct pops are in the forecast ahead of this feature however due to lack of stronger forcing, and the bulk of the weekend should be dry with warm temperatures in the 70s.

A weak sfc high and drier air mass builds in behind that front for Sunday night into Monday and the baroclinic zone temporarily settles just south of MI. Also an upper ridge builds overhead during this time as next upper low/trough moves into the nrn Plains, suggesting a dry day. However the warm front returns north again on Monday night which brings a renewed chance of showers and storms.

- Showers and Storms Tuesday/Tuesday Night

A potentially active period is Tuesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave heads northeast from KS and sends a front in our direction. Moisture return from the Gulf via 40 kt low level jet should result in numerous showers and storms developing and will carry 60-70 pct pops. Fcst confidence in convective potential decreases by the middle of next week with large ensemble QPF/timing spread noted, but temps look to remain above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR weather is expected to continue today with cloud bases at or above 6000 ft streaming in from the west this afternoon. A few light showers may accompany those clouds. After 00Z this evening it is possible a few tstms could occur as a warm front lifts north into the area, but confidence is too low to include thunder in the TAFs at this time. Sfc winds increasing to 10-15 kts out of the southeast this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

We are cautiously optimistic that we will not need any marine headlines for the next couple of days. There is an increasing pressure gradient coming in later today and tonight. This looks to be offshore in nature, and will be warmer air riding up over the cooler waters of Lake Michigan. Winds could be up around 20 knots, just below criteria.

High pressure building over the area for this coming weekend will give boaters a chance to get out on the waters with good boating conditions expected.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,