Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:28PM Friday March 22, 2019 4:59 AM PDT (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:46PMMoonset 7:32AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 243 Am Pdt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. South gales and very steep wind driven seas will develop this morning and continue into Friday afternoon. Long period west swell will also build today through Saturday before subsiding during the day Sunday. After a brief break early Sunday, another strong low pressure system will arrive from the southwest Sunday night resulting in another round of increasing south winds and steepening seas. Unsettled weather is expected through much of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 220952
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
252 am pdt Fri mar 22 2019

Discussion A cold front is approaching the coast this morning, and deep
southerly flow ahead of the front is bringing increasing winds to
the coastal waters and some inland areas. The last time I was on the
forecast desk was about 4 days ago, and much has changed since then.

The system today has trended towards a more southerly flow that
results in precipitation focused over northern california and the
coast... And typically results in less precipitation over west side
valleys like medford and roseburg. In any case, it looks wetter than
the Wednesday system that ran into a very dry and warm air mass and
brought little to no rain in most areas.

Winds will increase during the morning, especially at the coast, in
the shasta valley, over the mountains, and in the bear creek valley.

Latest observations, in combination with high-resolution model data
from the local WRF 2km and hrrr, suggest that advisory criteria will
be met in the shasta valley, so we're issuing an advisory there
through this afternoon due to gusty southerly winds.

A cold pool aloft arrives behind the front on Saturday with 500mb
temperatures dipping below -30c, and this is in the coolest 10
percent for 500mb temperatures for this time of year. This should
bring enough instability to areas west of the cascades, to include
the coast and coastal waters, for some thunderstorms and small hail.

Data shows late march is when we see an uptick in thunderstorm
frequency in jackson county, so this follows climatology to some
degree. High-resolution models indicate some enhanced convection
Saturday too. Wind fields are not impressive on Saturday, so
we're not expecting many (if any) strong storms. Still, gusty
winds and small hail will be possible with any storms.

Saturday night into Sunday morning will feature near-freezing
temperatures in many west side valleys if skies clear out. Models
suggest a dry air mass moving in Sunday morning, so we've kept
mention of frost in the forecast. Growers should keep this in mind
for planning purposes. We'll keep an eye on this and message this
potential if necessary.

Another front arrives Monday and looks like the strongest in the
past week+, again with deep southerly flow, stronger than today's
system. The naefs (gefs and canadian ensembles combined)
suggests the southerly wind field at 700mb will be in the top 1
percent for this time of year. This will support high
precipitation rates in siskiyou county. We've lowered snow levels
near mount shasta city to between 3500 and 4000 feet for Sunday
night Monday morning. Latest data suggests that at least snowmans
summit on highway 89 will be affected by snowfall, and this could
accumulate on untreated roadways given the nighttime morning
nature of the system. Winds Monday should become gusty in many of
the same areas as today, but winds should trend higher with
Monday's system. Please see the previous long- term discussion
below. The main change from that is the lower snow levels around
the mount shasta city area Monday morning.

Long term discussion from the Thursday afternoon afd... Monday 25
mar through Thursday 28 mar 2019.

Unsettled weather is expected much of next week, though we may
catch a break on Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will feature a broad closed low out around
45n and 140w on Monday. A frontal system associated with this low
will move onshore Monday morning and through the area bringing a
period of steadier precipitation across most of the CWA through
Monday evening. Heaviest precipitation will be from the coast
range of SW oregon to western and central siskiyou county, where
amounts of 0.50-1.50 inches are likely. Snow levels still look to
be about 4500 feet with most accumulating snow occurring above
5000 feet. Expect a period of steady south to southeast winds pre-
front in the morning, then winds shift to SW and remain breezy as
the front moves through. Precipitation becomes more showery
following the frontal passage. We've added a slight chance of
thunder to the immediate coast and coastal waters as mid-level
instability increases behind the front.

We're expecting broad SW flow aloft to set up over the area
Monday night into Tuesday, and while isolated to scattered
showers could remain, most areas should catch a break in between
fronts. The closed low will pinwheel southeastward offshore sending
another short wave impulse and frontal system through the area
mainly Tuesday night through Wednesday. Once again, the bulk of the
moisture precipitation is expected across our southern and western
zones, but areas to the north will see some precipitation too.

A showery pattern will continue with moist, onshore flow Wednesday
night through Thursday as the closed low offshore gradually opens up
into a trough and crosses the pacnw. -spilde

Aviation For the 22 06z tafs...VFR will prevail through Friday
morning. An approaching cold front will bring rain to the coast
Friday morning. The front will then push eastwards and bring rain to
all locations by Friday evening. MVFR ceilings are unlikely for the
inland valleys, but are probable at the coast with frontal passage
around noon. We're also expecting some speed wind shear along the
coast as the front moves onshore.

-smith

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Thursday, 21 march 2019...

long period swell has arrived in the waters this evening. Meanwhile,
satellite imagery shows a front lying offshore, which will push into
the waters Friday morning. Expect south gales and very steep wind
driven seas to develop ahead of the front as it sweeps across the
waters Friday morning though Friday afternoon. Elevated long period
west swell will continue through Saturday and into Saturday night,
producing hazardous bar conditions and higher than average surf
before diminishing Sunday morning.

After a brief break in the action Sunday, another robust frontal
system is expected to arrive Monday, but the latest model solutions
suggest it could weaken significantly as it arrives. Due to the
weakening trend of the front, timing and strength are likely to
change over the next several forecast cycles, but gales may be
possible Monday morning, with steep to very steep seas persisting
into Monday night. Conditions should improve by Tuesday, but long-
term guidance suggests unsettled weather will continue into next
week, although exact details are uncertain at this time.

-bpn smith

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Beach hazards statement until 5 am pdt early this morning for
orz021-022.

Ca... Wind advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 am pdt
Sunday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning from 8 am this morning to 5 pm pdt this afternoon
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 8 am this morning to 5 pm pdt this
afternoon for pzz350-356.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for
pzz370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi29 min 52°F8 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi83 min 52°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi65 minSSE 510.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1015.3 hPa

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Last 24hrS3S4S4S4SW3S3SW3CalmW6NW3CalmN9N8--NE5NE4NW6NW6CalmE3S5SE3S3S5
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmW3NE3W4SE5S4S4SW6SW12W8W7W6W9SW7SW8SW9S7S7S4S4Calm
2 days agoN6N6N5N5N5NE6N8N8N10N9N14N9N9N13N9N10N10NW9SW9S5CalmCalmW5NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Fri -- 02:32 AM PDT     7.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:53 AM PDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:52 PM PDT     6.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:07 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:48 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.466.976.24.831.40.400.61.93.65.36.46.76.253.51.90.70.20.51.7

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
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Fri -- 02:45 AM PDT     7.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:04 AM PDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM PDT     6.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:18 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:48 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.15.86.97.26.55.23.41.70.500.41.63.35.16.46.96.55.43.82.20.90.20.41.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.