Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:11PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:18 AM PST (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:42AMMoonset 11:03PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 948 Pm Pst Sun Jan 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Winds will start to decrease below gale late this evening. Very steep and hazardous wind driven seas have peaked and will start to subside this evening. Seas will remain very steep and hazardous through Monday morning. Another storm system is expected to move through the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. This system is expected to bring gales to the waters Tuesday afternoon as the front moves through.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 220456
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
856 pm pst Sun jan 21 2018

Discussion The forecast was updated earlier this evening to
downgrade the winter storm warning to a winter weather advisory.

See wswmfr for the details. The frontal system bringing the snow
down to around 3000 feet (slightly lower near dunsmuir where
precipitation has been steadier), is moving inland across the
cascades and will push east of the cascades overnight.

Precipitation rates were briefly moderate this evening, and once
the Sun went down, roads quickly became snow-covered over the
major passes of i-5 (siskiyou summit and areas south of weed near
mount shasta city). One spotter reported around 4 inches of new
snow near mount shasta city. We'll continue to see some light to
at times moderate snow this evening and overnight in those areas
and also in the cascades siskiyous and over the east side. But,
the threat for heavy snow (greater than 6 inches) has diminished.

Despite the diminished risk for heavy snow, roads will remain
slippery and hazardous, so please slow down and drive with extra
caution tonight if you encounter snow-covered roads.

The front will weaken and dissipate in NW nevada and northern
california on Monday, so coverage of showers will diminish and
most will end by the afternoon. If not by then, certainly by
Monday evening. Please see previous discussion below for the
details regarding the next storm, which will likely bring more
rain, wind and snow impacts to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

-spilde

Aviation 21 18z TAF cycle... A strong front will bring gusty winds
and low level wind shear to southern oregon and northern california
today. Where surface winds have not increased, expect wind shear to
be present as winds 2000 feet above ground will be at least 40
knots. MVFR CIGS will be widespread at the coast. Terrain and
mountains will be obscured today. Satellite imagery shows the storm
is deepening so rainfall rate could be moderate to heavy at times
leading to lower ceilings and visibilities.

The front has a sharp edge but the atmosphere is expected to be
stable tonight behind the front. Conditions could lower to ifr in
low clouds and fog late tonight. Fb

Marine Updated 800 pm pst Sunday 21 jan 2018... Winds have
diminished significantly over the last few hours over the outer
waters. Look for southwest winds around 10 - 15 knots mixed with
fresh and steep swell into Monday morning. Small craft conditions
are expected to continue through Monday night as the fresh swell
continues to move through the waters.

Eventually, another low pressure system and front are expected to
enter the mix. This system is not as strong as the one we saw on
Sunday, however we are still expecting gale force winds in the outer
waters. Right now guidance is suggesting the front may slow down as
it heads eastward, so the period of gales may last longer than what
we have seen this last week. Right now some models are suggesting
the gales to continue into 15z Wednesday.

-smith

Prev discussion issued 421 pm pst Sun jan 21 2018
discussion... The the band of rapidly cooling cloud tops behind
the main cloud band is moving down the coast towards northern
california at this time. However, with the cold air mass aloft
moving in lapse rates will remain high post front into the evening
and showers will continue behind the front. Will leave the winter
weather warnings and advisories up as is, but they will likely
have to be cancelled earlier than the current 1 am timing after
the front moves through.

Showers will continue to taper off as a weak ridge builds over the
region Monday, bringing a break in the action into late Monday
night.

The next system moves in Tuesday morning, and is a slow moving
system that latches onto a +120 kt jet that slowly move south. The
jet axis is pointed at the washington coast and very slowly
transition to the southeast and over the forecast area Wednesday.

This strong jet extends far across the pacific with a strong
atmospheric river event indicated and several 6 hour periods with
over an inch of precipitation indicated in the south coastal
range. Snow levels are indicated to be just a little higher than
the current front and down to near mt. Shasta city, but confidence
is not high enough to issue a watch until model performance with
the current front is verified. Sven
long term... Thu, jan 25th through Sunday night, jan 29th, 2018...

the long term period begins with an anomalously cold trough of low
pressure extending from southern alaska southward to southern
california along the west coast. GEFS 500mb geopotential heights
begin the period at 537 decameters, which equates to a normalized
anomaly of -1.75 to -2 standard deviations. Thus, it will be colder
than normal across the forecast area with showers and low snow
levels expected. Model guidance is well agreed on showers from along
and near the cascades westward during the day on Thursday,
diminishing Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow levels are
expected to generally be between 1500 and 2500 feet, + - 500 feet.

Therefore, we'll be on the lookout for snowfall on the lower passes
such as jacksonville hill and the sexton summits. Snow will also be
possible on or near the valley floors of the rogue and illinois
valleys. Have adjusted snow levels Thursday morning through Friday
morning to account for some expectation of the local effect of lower
snow levels in convective SW flow over and near the illinois valley
versus the rogue valley. Given the showery pattern, current
expectations are that accumulations in the valleys will be generally
light, but could be locally significant in locations such as hayes
hill in the illinois valley. For the relatively parched downhill ski
areas, models are indicating 0.25" to 0.75" of water equivalent at
mount ashland and 0.50" to 1.0" at mount shasta Wednesday night
through Friday morning. Due to the cold air mass snow amounts are
expected to be a fluffy 5-10 additional inches at mount ashland and
6-12 additional inches on mount shasta.

Friday the trough begins to lift out to the northeast as high
pressure begins to build in from the southwest. However, due to
replacement of a colder air mass by a warmer one, we anticipate
precipitation could linger Friday into Saturday, especially over nw
sections of the forecast area, with snow levels remaining below 5500
feet.

Anomalously high amplitude high pressure is then expected to move
through Saturday night through Monday, followed by another fairly
strong trough of low pressure arriving from the gulf of alaska
Tuesday into Wednesday. This trough is not as deep as recent ones on
the gefs, but should be enough to bring us a bit more rain and some
freshening of the mountain snowpack. It is notable that both the 12z
ecmwf and 18z GFS do indicate the trough to be deeper colder than
does the GEFS mean, so this means there is uncertainty related to
the amplitude and resultant southern periphery of this trough. Btl

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
orz027>031.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
caz084-085.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am pst Monday for
caz080-081-083.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst Monday for caz082.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from late Monday night through
late Tuesday night for pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 10 pm pst this evening for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Mas czs sbn btl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46261 34 mi48 min 51°F14 ft
46260 41 mi48 min 53°F14 ft
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi55 min 52°F16 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi48 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 52°F1023.3 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi24 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast41°F41°F100%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S12SE10S18
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1 day agoS4SW6S6S9S8S6S7S8S10S12S13S13S14S13S11S9S7S8SE9SE8SE11S10S9SE6
2 days agoS7S8S9S9S8S9S7S9S12S12S13
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Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM PST     6.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:31 AM PST     2.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:44 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:56 PM PST     5.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:13 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:33 PM PST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.83.14.55.56.16.15.64.73.82.92.52.533.84.75.45.65.44.73.62.51.611

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:43 AM PST     6.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:42 AM PST     2.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:44 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:08 PM PST     5.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:44 PM PST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.94.35.56.26.35.9543.12.52.42.83.74.65.45.85.64.93.92.81.81.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.