Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 4:37PM Sunday December 16, 2018 6:25 PM PST (02:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 12:46AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 248 Pm Pst Sun Dec 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..South gales have eased with choppy hazardous seas remaining behind. Very large westerly swells will continue to build into tonight and produce dangerous surf conditions. Seas will remain hazardous and an extended gale event will occur late Monday through Tuesday. Seas will remain high to very high at mid-week, then yet another cold front with south gales is expected Thursday afternoon and night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 162257
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
257 pm pst Sun dec 16 2018

Short term A potent frontal system is moving through the area
at this writing with a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
accompanying it. We've had about 0.15 of an inch in the last hour
here at the airport with some reports of up to a third of an inch
in just one hour in the illinois valley and around 0.50 of an inch
in an hour at gold beach. The back edge of the heavy rain will
push east of jackson county in the next hour or so, then move east
of the cascades tonight. Post-frontal showers will continue
tonight through Monday morning along and west of the cascades and
there could be isolated thunderstorms over the coastal waters and
along the immediate coast as the cold pool aloft moves in. Winds
didn't really materialize after early this morning's brief SE 35
mph gusts north of the phoenix talent exits on i-5, so we
cancelled the wind advisory for those areas early. Wind gusts are
still strong in the shasta valley at 2 pm, but these should also
ease as the front pushes through late this afternoon. Wind
products there expire at 7 pm and will also allow them to ride
until 10 pm over the east side.

Another strong frontal system will bring another bout of strong
winds and heavy rain at the coast Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. We have upgraded the high wind watch to a warning along
the coast as 925 mb winds near 70 kt. This is usually a good proxy
for gusts along the coast with even higher gusts possible at the
headlands and exposed areas. Model 700 mb flow is strong too,
peaking at 50-70 kt, highest north of the or ca border, but unlike
the most recent 2 systems is more westerly or west-southwesterly
aloft. We have maintained the high wind watch over the east side
since we still currently have a wind warning in effect. This may
get upgraded over the next shift or so. Additional wind advisories
are expected as well. It is notable that while we have met wind
warning criteria with the last 2 events in the shasta valley, this
event should be a bit different due to the wsw 850-700mb flow. We
are still expecting advisory type winds (45-55 mph gusts), but
warning level winds there are not as likely due to the wind
direction aloft.

In addition, there is the potential for about a 12 hour period of
heavy rainfall at the coast, focused in the coast ranges, late
Monday night into Tuesday. Overall, this event is expected to
deliver 2-4 inches of rain for all coastal areas with 3-6 inches
in far western josephine curry county. Locally higher amounts are
possible in the coastal mountains. This will likely lead to
significant rises on area streams, creeks and rivers, so we have
issued a hydro outlook at esfmfr. We have also issued a flash
flood watch for the chetco and klondike burn scars, where rain
rates could exceed 0.50 of an inch per hour at times. This could
result in rock slides and debris flows in the burn scar region.

Even if intensity thresholds aren't met, storm total rainfall could
exceed the 2-3 inch amounts necessary for debris flow potential.

Since rivers are still running pretty low, we are not anticipating
main stem flooding.

We are not anticipating any significant snow impacts with this
system since snow levels will be quite high, though there could be
several inches of snow up around crater lake.

The front will push south of the area Tuesday night and
precipitation will diminish.

-spilde

Long term Wednesday through Sunday... A weak upper level ridge
is forecast to build over the area on Wednesday resulting in
decreasing showers. However this break in the weather will be
brief as additional fronts are expected late in the week in to
next weekend.

Late Wednesday into Wednesday night, another frontal system offshore
will approach the region and bring a warm front inland north of the
area. This may allow a chance for light rain along the coast as this
pushes inland north of us. Models then show good agreement that a
cold front will move inland Thursday into Thursday night. This front
is expected to bring moderate to locally heavy rain to the coast
with moderate precipitation inland. Snow levels are expected to be
around 6500 feet elevation ahead of this front, lowering to around
4000 to 5000 feet behind the front in showers Thursday night. Some
strong gusty winds are possible ahead of and with the frontal
passage Thursday into Thursday evening, mainly over the higher
terrain, into the shasta valley and possibly for some local areas
east of the cascades, such as the summer lake area. On Friday,
expect some lingering showers, especially in the morning. Snow
levels may be down to 3000 to 3500 feet early Friday but any showers
are expected to be very light.

Next weekend, models show another low pressure system approaching
the pacific northwest Saturday and moving inland Saturday night.

However there is significant model variability on the strength of
this system. Snow levels of around 4000 to 5500 feet are currently
forecast with this system Saturday night and Sunday. So light to
moderate snow is possible over the higher passes, Saturday night and
Sunday. Will need to monitor this portion of the forecast with
future model runs. -cc

Aviation For the 16 18z tafs... Conditions are mainlyVFR early
this morning, but with gusty low level southerly winds and local ifr
with light rain. This includes areas of low level wind shear into
early afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. The front is the main
reason for the lack of morning fog. But, as the front moves inland,
rain and mountain snow will be moderate at times with areas of MVFR,
and terrain obscuration. After the front passes in the afternoon,
vfr will prevail. But, there will be lingering showers and snow
showers into Monday morning with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms near the coast and the development of late night
valley stratus and patchy fog. -dw sven

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Sunday 16 december 2018...

south gales have eased with choppy hazardous seas remaining behind.

Very large westerly swells will continue to build into tonight and
produce dangerous surf conditions. Seas will remain hazardous and an
extended gale event will occur late Monday through Tuesday. Seas
will remain high to very high at mid-week, then yet another cold
front with south gales is expected Thursday afternoon and night. Sven

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind warning until 10 pm pst this evening for orz030-031.

Wind advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for orz029>031.

High wind watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for orz030-031.

Hazardous seas warning until 1 pm pst Monday for orz021.

High wind warning from 4 pm Monday to 4 pm pst Tuesday for
orz021-022.

Flash flood watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for orz022-024.

High surf warning until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz021-022.

Ca... High wind warning until 10 pm pst this evening for caz085.

Wind advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for caz083>085.

High wind watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for caz085.

High wind warning until 7 pm pst this evening for caz081.

Wind advisory until 7 pm pst this evening for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale warning from 1 pm Monday to 4 pm pst
Tuesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 1 pm pst Monday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Mas cc sbn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi183 min 53°F20 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi50 min SSE 1.9 G 8.9 51°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi32 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F45°F83%1011.4 hPa

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Last 24hr3Calm3SE10CalmW4E6CalmSW4W4S4E4CalmW6E4NW4CalmN4W12S8S11S8S8S9
1 day agoNW5S11S6S7S5S5S5S7S10S5S7S8SE8S9S8SE11S8S8SW7SW5SW5E4N3Calm
2 days agoSW5S5S6SW6SW6SW6SW7SW6SW6SW8S7SW3SW6S5SW5S5S4SW5SW26
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Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:48 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:57 AM PST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:46 AM PST     6.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:23 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:29 PM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:49 PM PST     4.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.82.43.44.55.466.15.85.14.23.32.62.32.32.73.344.54.64.43.83.1

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:48 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:08 AM PST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:58 AM PST     6.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:23 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:40 PM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:01 PM PST     4.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.51.72.33.34.35.366.265.44.53.52.82.32.22.63.23.94.54.74.543.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.