Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 9:00PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 10:56 AM PDT (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:26AMMoonset 12:05AM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 816 Am Pdt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions will continue through Thursday. Seas will be a mix of longer period west swell and shorter period northwest swell through this evening, with the northwest swell diminishing tonight. The thermal trough redevelops Friday. Small craft conditions with steep wind driven seas are expected to return by Friday night and continue into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 191536
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
836 am pdt Tue jun 19 2018

Discussion The forecast for this morning and afternoon is on
track and no changes are needed. The latest satellite image shows
marine stratus in the areas where we expected. Over the waters and
just inland including the coquille basin. This will gradually
peel back towards the coast later this morning into this
afternoon.

The main focus of concern will be Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. A preliminary look at some of the data
continues to suggest we'll have a thunderstorm outbreak during
this time and some of these storms could be severe with gusty
winds and small hail. Please see previous discussion for more
details on this. -petrucelli

Aviation For the 19 12z tafs... Marine layer is bringing lifr
cigs vsbys along the coast and into the coquille basin this morning.

Expect the marine layer to burn back to the coast later this
morning, with brief periods of clearing possible along the coast
this afternoon. In the klamath basin, patchy fog has developed and
this is resulting in temporary periods of ifr conditions at klmt.

These lower conditions should burn off after sunrise andVFR
conditions will prevail thereafter.

For the rest of the area,VFR conditions prevail and will do so
throughout the TAF period. Br-y

Marine Updated 130 am pdt Tuesday 19 june 2018... Relatively calm
conditions will continue through Thursday. Seas will be a mix of
longer period west swell and shorter period northwest swell through
this evening, with the northwest swell diminishing tonight. The
thermal trough redevelops Friday. Small craft conditions with steep
wind driven seas are expected to return by Friday night and
continue into the weekend. Br-y
fire weather... Updated 315 am pdt Tuesday 19 june 2018... An
upper ridge will build in behind an exiting upper low today,
bringing warming and drying. Moist unstable air feeds into the
region again on Wednesday, with strong instability over the
cascades. This area has a chance of seeing hail and damaging winds
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. A warming and drying
pattern returns Thursday into the weekend. Some cooling should
return early next week. Sven spilde

Prev discussion issued 312 am pdt Tue jun 19 2018
discussion... An upper level ridge axis will be over the CWA today
resulting in continued warming of the air mass aloft. This will
bring a mainly sunny sky with just some afternoon cumulus clouds
over the mountains. Overall, we expect about 5-10 degrees of
warming compared to yesterday over inland areas with a little less
than that along the coast.

The ridge axis will shift east of the area tonight and a potent
shortwave disturbance will approach the coast on Wednesday. This
will bring a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms to portions
of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Models haven't
wavered with respect to the potential here. The shortwave will be
arriving at the time of peak heating late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This will allow the atmosphere to moisten and destabilize
in advance of it with pwats creeping up to or surpassing 1.00
inch and MUCAPE >1000 j kg. Storms are expected to initiate over
the higher terrain with the focus from western klamath NE jackson
to eastern douglas county (lake of the woods northward up the
cascades). Movement will be to the north initially, then to the
northeast at 10-20kt as the shortwave trough pushes inland
Wednesday evening. The storm prediction center (spc) has this area
in a marginal risk for severe storms with isolated coverage. The
main threat with the storms that do develop will be strong,
damaging winds. However, 0-6km bulk shear is indicated to be up
around 40kt and this could support more persistent updrafts with
the potential for severe hail. Isolated to scattered storms could
also impact the rogue valley, especially eastern sections as well
as east-central douglas county (mainly from roseburg east) and
portions of siskiyou county. The threat diminishes farther west.

Expect most of the action to shift to the north and east across
portions of klamath and northern lake counties Wednesday evening
before exiting the area to the northeast overnight.

Behind this system, expect only slight cooling at best with dry
weather prevailing for the balance of the work week.

This weekend, models are showing 850 temps briefly shooting up to
23-25c by Sunday. If correct, Sunday would be the hottest day of
the next seven with temperatures topping out in the upper 90s here
in the rogue valley (near 100?). The next trough is expected to
arrive early next week though, so any really hot weather should
be short-lived. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi34 min 59°F6 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi81 min N 4.1 G 6 53°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi63 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds70°F55°F61%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW7W5SW43CalmN6N5N9N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S4CalmCalmSE3NE5Calm
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N11N10NE8N12N5E4NW3S4CalmS3CalmN4N10N7

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Tue -- 12:12 AM PDT     1.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:06 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:41 AM PDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:36 PM PDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:18 PM PDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.12.93.955.75.85.34.331.60.4-0.3-0.30.31.534.45.565.95.34.33.2

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:23 AM PDT     1.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:06 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:53 AM PDT     5.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:47 PM PDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:30 PM PDT     6.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.12.73.84.95.75.95.64.73.41.90.6-0.2-0.40.11.32.74.35.56.16.15.54.53.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.