Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 9:01PM Monday June 26, 2017 1:35 AM PDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 10:15PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 803 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 25 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..South winds will persist over the waters today and Monday and bring continued fog and low stratus. Seas will remain low through Monday. The thermal trough returns Tuesday into Wednesday with gusty north winds and steep to very steep choppy seas developing over the waters. These conditions may persist through late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 260302
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
802 pm pdt Sun jun 25 2017

Update The upper level wave responsible for kicking off
thunderstorms earlier today currently lies along a line roughly
from CAPE blanco to lakeview. North of this line, showers and
thunderstorms continue, but due to the loss of daytime heating,
this convective activity has started to wane. To the south of the
line, a few isolated cells can be found, but very little lightning
activity has been associated with them for the past hour or so.

Another shortwave is expected to pass through later tonight, and
with elevated instability persisting through the overnight hours,
some nocturnal thunderstorms are possible. Have kept slight
chance to chance in the forecast, with the most likely areas to
see nighttime cells develop being the coastal ranges and the
cascade crest. Have adjusted the forecast slightly to fit current
observations and to account for the latest model runs, but there
has been little overall change.

For more information on this and the remainder of the forecast,
see the previous discussion below. -bpn

Aviation 26 00z TAF cycle... Along the coast, expect MVFR ifr
ceilings to continue through the next 24 hours.VFR conditions
will continue everywhere inland from the coast through the taf
period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over
inland areas this evening and tonight, with the greatest threat
over the mountains. Expect gusty downdraft winds and lightning
with any storms. -wright bpn

Marine Updated 800 pm Sunday, 25 june 2017... South winds will
persist over the waters today and Monday and bring continued fog and
low stratus. Seas will remain low through Monday. The thermal trough
returns Tuesday into Wednesday with gusty north winds and steep to
very steep choppy seas developing over the waters. The strongest
winds and seas are forecast from CAPE blanco south but periods of
small craft winds and seas are possible north of the cape. These
conditions may persist through late in the week. -bpn sbn

Prev discussion issued 232 pm pdt Sun jun 25 2017
discussion... The hot air mass is becoming unstable this afternoon, and
thunderstorms have developed over northern california. 37 cloud
to ground lightning strikes have been observed so far, focused
over north-central siskiyou county. More storms are expected to
develop as instability increases later this afternoon. Initially,
little rain is expected with the storms because of a very dry
subcloud layer, but rain is expected with storms later this
afternoon and evening. Lightning is expected to be focused over
the siskiyous and cascades where we have scattered thunderstorms
forecast. The broad shortwave that supports the afternoon storms
will move north and east out of the forecast area, but additional
forcing aloft will arrive overnight, and this could couple with
upper level instability to generated elevated thunderstorms.

Tomorrow the forcing becomes stronger as remnants of an upper low
moves towards northern california, providing ample diffluence at
the left exit region of a 60kt jet. Additionally, the convective
inhibition that existed today won't be there tomorrow, so that's
more favorable for storm formation. Lastly, 0-6km bulk shear is
30kt+, and this will favor longer-lived, potentially severe
storms. Red flag warnings continue into tomorrow, and please see
the fire weather discussion below for more details.

Temperatures Monday drop well below warning and advisory criteria,
so we'll let the excessive heat warnings and heat advisories expire
this evening.

A cooler, breezy day is on tap Tuesday as onshore gradients increase
sharply. It will feel like a different climate on Tuesday compared
to today as high temperatures settle right around normal for this
time of year. Daily marine stratus intrusions are expected to bring
overnight and morning low clouds to at least the coast and umpqua
basin Monday through Wednesday. Naefs output suggests relatively
zonal, west to east flow through early next week at least. What this
means is near to slightly above normal temperatures and little to
no thunderstorm activity are likely.

Fire weather... Updated 200 pm Sunday, 25 june 2017... Isolated
thunderstorms have already developed over western siskiyou county as
a shortwave moves up from the south this afternoon. As conditions
continue to destabilize through the afternoon and evening,
thunderstorms should increase in coverage, especially over the
mountains. Thunderstorms will remain possible through the night as
an upper trough approaches, then they should again increase in
coverage and intensity tomorrow afternoon and evening as the main
trough arrives. However, the focus for lightning will shift to the
cascades and east side tomorrow. It will also be cooler, but breezy
west winds and continued low humidities may fan any new fire starts.

Red flag warnings remain in effect primarily for the potential of
increased initial attack activity. The rest of the week should be
quieter as cooler weather dominates. -wright

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Red flag warning until 11 pm pdt Monday for orz621-623.

Red flag warning until 11 pm pdt Monday for orz624.

Red flag warning until 5 pm pdt Monday for orz620-622.

Red flag warning from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Monday for orz625.

Ca... Red flag warning from 11 am to 8 pm pdt Monday for caz281.

Red flag warning until 11 pm pdt Monday for caz280.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Bpn sbn nsk trw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46261 34 mi186 min 56°F4 ft
46260 41 mi186 min 51°F4 ft
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi42 min 56°F5 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi60 min S 1 G 4.1 52°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi42 minSW 910.00 miFair59°F51°F75%1014.5 hPa

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Last 24hrS4SW6S33S5S3SW5SW3CalmN4Calm3SW13W16W18W13SW13SW12W13
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1 day ago--------CalmCalmCalmNE8N7NE9N7N11N10N11N13N12N14N10N7N7N5CalmCalmS3
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Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Mon -- 02:34 AM PDT     7.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:42 AM PDT     -1.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 PM PDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:45 PM PDT     1.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:17 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
56.47.37.46.75.23.31.3-0.4-1.4-1.6-0.90.62.44.15.465.853.92.821.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:46 AM PDT     7.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM PDT     -1.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM PDT     6.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM PDT     1.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:16 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.86.37.47.675.73.81.7-0.1-1.3-1.6-1.10.32.13.95.36.165.34.232.11.82.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.