Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:18PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:16 PM PDT (06:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 818 Pm Pdt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..South winds will gradually diminish but seas will remain steep to very steep through Sunday afternoon as west swell combines with short period wind waves. A front will move onshore Sunday. Once the front moves inland, a thermal trough will set up, and this will bring strong north winds and steep seas south of cape blanco beginning Monday and continuing through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 220537
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1035 pm pdt Sat oct 21 2017

Updated aviation discussion
Update Current radar and satellite imagery are showing light
showers across southern oregon and northern california with a
heavier swath of rain to our north. The cold front to our north is
still on track to drift southward tomorrow, but it should continue
to weaken leading to light to moderate rain west of the cascades
and the siskiyous northward.

The wind advisory is currently set to expire at 11pm tonight, but
will be making a few changes to the wind forecast tonight to
account for the latest guidance for east of the cascades. Will
need to consider extending the wind advisory for a few more hours.

Otherwise, no changes to the forecast have been made. -schaaf

Aviation 22 06z TAF cycle... A mix of MVFR andVFR ceilings and
visibility (and isolated ifr conditions) continues tonight in moist
onshore flow ahead of another front, and this general condition is
expected to continue through Sunday (especially for areas west of
the cascades). South to southwest winds will remain gusty through
Sunday morning at the coast, over the higher terrain, and east of
the cascades, diminishing some Sunday afternoon. Mountain
obscuration will continue to affect most of the forecast area
through Sunday.

We have introduced some lower visibility and ceilings Sunday evening
for mfr based on the high soil moisture and increasing stability
leading to the chance for some fog mist and ifr conditions. These
conditions will likely affect more valley locations later Sunday
night. Sk

Prev discussion issued 202 pm pdt Sat oct 21 2017
discussion...

short term... Tonight through Tuesday night... Current radar
imagery depicts a wide swath of rain just to our north, with
widespread showers streaming west to east across the forecast
area. These will gradually taper off through the rest of the day.

The warm front responsible for the rain, as well as the rapid
increase in snow levels, has moved to the north, but a weak cold
front will attempt to push back south later tonight and through
tomorrow. This front will wash out as it moves south, and while
another round of light to moderate precipitation will accompany
it's passage through the day, it won't fully make it across the
forecast area. In fact, most locations east of the cascades and
south of the siskiyous won't see much rain, if any at all.

The clouds and showers will exit the region Sunday night, and high
pressure will start building in for the first half of the week.

This will result in drying and warming conditions, as well as
prevailing easterly winds in the lower levels. With the moisture
now in the ground and cooler temperatures settled in, this east
wind is likely to create strong overnight inversions, trapping air
within the valleys and limiting the mixing with the drier air
aloft. Fog will be a concern both Monday and Tuesday morning in
the west side valleys, but fog is possible east of the cascades as
well, especially Monday morning. If fog forms, it will limit the
daytime highs significantly, but if it does not, unseasonably warm
temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal are not out of the
question for much of the region.

Also of note, a chetco effect is a likely byproduct of these east
winds, and temperatures along the southern coastline near
brookings could approach 80 by Tuesday afternoon. This warmth is
expected to persist into the extended period. -bpn
long term... Wednesday through Saturday... Confidence is high
we'll remain dry during the period. The models show an upper
trough dropping southeast from western b.C. Through northeast
washington on Wednesday. Typically the trajectory that the models
show do not result in precipitation. The more likely scenario will
be a dry cold front passage that will result in cooler
temperatures. The models have backed off on the QPF Wednesday with
the GFS showing northing in our area. The ECMWF still shows some,
but suspect it's overdone. Given the above mentioned reasoning,
pops have been removed from the forecast Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Dry with milder temperatures are expected next Thursday and
could last into next weekend. Skies will be clear for the most
part at night, so it will be cool west of the cascades and colder
on the eastside.

-petrucelli
marine... Updated 130 pm pdt Saturday 21 october 2017... A warm
front has moved north of the area, and gale force south winds are
now diminishing over portions of the waters. Seas will remain
steep to very steep through Sunday afternoon as west swell
combines with short period wind waves. A cold front will move
onshore Sunday. Once the front moves inland, a thermal trough will
set up, and this will bring strong north winds and steep seas
south of CAPE blanco beginning Monday and continuing through
Thursday.

Fire weather... Updated 200 pm pdt Saturday october 21 2017... No
fire concerns are expected through the weekend. Confidence is high
for a stretch of dry weather starting next Monday and could last
through next weekend. Guidance continues to show a tight pressure
gradient as a thermal trough develops along the coast Monday night
through Tuesday. This could result in moderate northeast winds along
with moderate overnight recoveries near and at the ridges.

-petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Wind advisory until 11 pm pdt this evening for orz030-031.

Ca... Wind advisory until 11 pm pdt this evening for caz085.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Sunday
for pzz350-356-376. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas
from 5 pm Sunday to 5 pm pdt Monday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 pm pdt Sunday for pzz350-356-
370-376.

Bms bpn nsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46261 34 mi47 min 53°F13 ft
46260 41 mi47 min 53°F12 ft
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi54 min 55°F16 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi47 min SSW 7 G 17 53°F1019.2 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi23 minSSW 146.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist59°F57°F93%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS7S12S11S11S13S11S8S4W4CalmSW7SW6S8S7S11SW8SW12SW10SW10S9S13S13SE10S11

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Sun -- 03:25 AM PDT     5.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:02 AM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:48 PM PDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:28 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:45 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.645.15.75.75.14.13.12.42.12.33.24.45.56.36.66.15.13.82.31.10.30.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:37 AM PDT     5.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:13 AM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:00 PM PDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:29 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:56 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.33.855.75.85.34.43.32.52.12.334.25.46.36.76.45.54.12.61.30.40.10.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.