Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 9:00PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 12:12 PM PDT (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 817 Am Pdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions will continue through Thursday. The thermal trough redevelops Friday and small craft conditions with steep wind driven seas are expected to return by Friday night. Gales are possible over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 201602
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
902 am pdt Wed jun 20 2018

Update The latest models have trended a bit quicker with the
expected trough today, and has pushed the main areas of
convection to the north from previous runs. This has resulted in
a change to the thunderstorm forecast today, reducing the
thunderstorm chances south of crater lake, including siskiyou and
jackson counties. While not all models show this trend, several
have, and this has reduced confidence in the overall forecast, and
warranted the update.

Overall, thunderstorms are still expected today, mainly along and
east of the western cascade foothills, into northern klamath and
lake counties. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds and
small hail, and plenty of lightning is likely. Take the proper
precautions and plan for the chance of strong thunderstorms this
afternoon.

For more on this and the rest of the forecast, see the previous
discussion below. -bpn

Aviation For the 20 12z tafs... Marine layer will continue to
bring a mix of ifr lifr CIGS along the coast, over the coastal
waters, and the coquille basin. Onshore flow will continue to push
the marine layer inland, but not confident it will make it to krbg
and have removed the scattered MVFR mention from the krbg taf. It is
possible, however, to see some scattered CIGS in the vicinity of
krbg. Expect the marine layer to burn back to the coast this
afternoon where ifr CIGS are likely to continue through the taf
period.

Elsewhere,VFR conditions prevail and will do so throughout the taf
period. Thunderstorms are expected across many parts of SW oregon
and northern california this afternoon. Confidence is high that lmt
will see thunderstorms at some point this afternoon, however, was
not confident enough to forecast it for a specific hour. Opted for a
tempo group to cover the time frame most favorable for thunderstorms
on station. Confidence remains that jackson county will see
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and a few could drift within
10 nm of the airport. Thunderstorms should be most numerous along
and east of the cascades. Any thunderstorms that develop will be
capable of producing very strong gusty outflow winds. Br-y -fb

Marine Updated 130 am pdt Wednesday 19 june 2018... Relatively
calm conditions will continue through Thursday. The thermal trough
redevelops Friday. Small craft conditions with steep wind driven
seas are expected to return by Friday night and continue into the
weekend. Gales are possible during the weekend, but confidence is
still low since it's still a few days out. -fb br-y

Prev discussion issued 240 am pdt Wed jun 20 2018
discussion... The left exit region of a strong mid-upper level jet
max will move across the forecast area this afternoon. Moisture
and instability will increase today in advance of a potent short
wave disturbance associated with an upper level trough off the
norcal coast. Mid-level cooling forecast to arrive with the
shortwave at MAX surface heating this afternoon will lead to steep
lapse rates and MUCAPE ~1000j kg. The result will be scattered
strong to isolated severe thunderstorms over portions of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. The main threat area
will be from the cascades near lake of the woods north and
northeastward across far eastern douglas county, northern klamath
and northern lake counties. But, some isolated thunderstorms will
extend southward into northern california as well.

Convective initiation is expected from 19-21z (noon-2pm pdt) with
the most robust convection expected from 21-06z (2-11pm pdt).

Storms are likely to initiate over the mountains in the southern
oregon cascades, siskiyous and western siskiyou county early this
afternoon, and then spread north and northeast late this afternoon
and evening across klamath and northern lake counties. Recent
runs of the convection allowing models show a threat period of 3-7
pm pdt for the rogue valley (especially south and east sections),
which falls in line with climatology. The main threats with
storms today will be frequent cloud to ground lightning, locally
heavy rainfall, and the possibility of damaging wind gusts and
hail. Most of the convection should stay east of a line from
roseburg to grants pass.

Make sure to keep an eye to the sky and have a plan if
thunderstorms threaten. Seek shelter until the storms pass
completely. Please view the weather story on our home page at
weather.Gov mfr for more details on where the highest threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms exists today. Also refer to the
point and click map for forecasts specific to your location.

There may be some drizzle along the coast with a deepening marine
layer tonight. This will also mean more clouds farther inland into
the umpqua basin. Cooling behind today's system will be minor,
perhaps not even noticeable in most places, but with more clouds
due to the marine layer, places like roseburg will likely feel the
most change from today to tomorrow (Thursday).

Overall, Thursday to Saturday will be warm and probably dry for
inland areas with temperatures about 5-8 degrees above normal.

Another shortwave disturbance will move through Thursday
afternoon. Right now, moisture doesn't look robust enough to
include a slight chance of thunderstorms, but there could be some
buildups over the east side. Something to keep an eye on for
future shifts.

Models continue to show a spike in heat Sunday with forecast 850mb
temps in the 23-25c range. This would put highs in the upper 90s
here in medford and near 90 in the klamath basin. 100f is in the
range of solutions for medford, but is a high outlier at this
point. We are currently forecasting a high of 97 degrees.

This bout of heat will be short-lived, however, as the next
pacific trough is expected to move in early next week. This will
bring a period of gusty afternoon west-northwest winds as the
trough moves onshore Monday. Without significant moisture,
however, we are not expecting any precipitation. While we'll take
the edge off the heat Monday and Tuesday, we'll still be about 5-8
degrees above normal. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi50 min 57°F4 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi43 min W 4.1 G 5.1 54°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi19 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F57°F64%1014.8 hPa

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Last 24hrN7N7N12NE10NE12NE8NE9N5W6W7SW11SW9SW10SW8S8SW9SW9SW8SW10SW7SW7SW9SW9SW9
1 day agoW5SW43CalmN6N5N9N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S4CalmCalmSE3NE5Calm5N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Wed -- 01:27 AM PDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:37 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:52 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:54 AM PDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:31 PM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:11 PM PDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.81.82.43.34.255.24.94.131.90.90.30.30.923.44.85.86.265.34.3

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:37 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:38 AM PDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:52 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:06 AM PDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:42 PM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM PDT     6.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.81.82.33.14.14.95.35.14.43.32.110.40.20.71.83.24.65.76.36.25.64.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.