Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:52PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 4:45 PM PST (00:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:15AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 225 Pm Pst Wed Feb 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A steep... Yet low swell will continue to impact the waters today. Another low will move onshore from the north/northwest late tonight. North winds with high and steep waves will increase over the waters behind the low Thursday. High pressure is expected to build over the region on Friday resulting in lighter winds and calmer sea conditions. A high and steep swell will eventually arrive around Sunday morning as the next storm system moves into the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 220013
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
412 pm pst Wed feb 21 2018
the aviation section has been updated...

Short term Tonight through Saturday night... Even before the
last significant band of snow showers had dissipated this
morning, attention turned towards the next wave expected tonight
into tomorrow morning. Until then, some light snow showers are
possible along the cascades, siskiyous, and area foothills, but
with warmer daytime temperatures, expect very light if any
accumulations on area roads.

The overall pattern of ridging to the west and deep troughing
over the central us will not change anytime soon. This places the
forecast area squarely under north to northwest flow aloft,
through which numerous waves will traverse, each producing another
burst of precipitation and a reinforcing shot of cold air.

The next such wave arrives tonight. While moisture inflow is not
overly impressive, the system is robust enough and temperatures
will be more than cold enough to produce accumulating snows down
to 500 feet overnight and into Thursday morning. The most
concerning aspects of this event are twofold: first, the
temperature and moisture profiles show an area of significant lift
right in the most favorable snow crystal growth zone, and second,
this stronger burst of snow is likely to arrive around or after
sunrise, right during the morning commute. With more traffic on
the roads during this time, and a greater potential for impacts,
have issued a winter weather advisory for nearly all of the area
west of the cascades, including the entire stretch of interstate 5
from the douglas lane county line south to weed in northern
california. For more details on this system and the expected snow
amounts, see the winter weather message at pdxwswmfr.

Snow showers will taper off Thursday evening with some clearing
expected Thursday night into Friday morning. With new snow on the
ground and a cold air mass overhead, temperatures could make a
significant plunge by sunrise on Friday morning. However, if
cloud cover continues, as has occurred with the past several
events, it will be more difficult for temperatures to drop
significantly. Current thinking is that clouds will clear enough
to allow for good radiational cooling, and this should produce
below freezing lows all the way down to the coast, with single
digits across the east side, and low 20s to teens possible in the
west side valleys. Have issued a freeze watch for the coastal
areas, but any early season plant growth in the area is under the
threat of freeze damage if the proper precautions are not taken.

After a brief break Friday, the next trough arrives Friday night
into Saturday. This wave appears weaker and slightly warmer than
the previous ones, so snow levels will be slightly higher, and
precipitation amounts should stay on the lower side. The wave
will pass by Saturday afternoon, but moist onshore flow should
keep showers ongoing into the extended period. -bpn

Long term Sun, feb 25th through thu, mar 1st... And beyond...

this long term period of the forecast will begin with a trough of
low pressure centered over the rockies and high pressure extending
from just east of the hawaiian islands north-northwestward to the
bering sea. This will continue to result in a northwest flow storm
track across the forecast area. By the end of the period, GEFS 500mb
geopotential height anomalies suggest the low pressure troughing is
likely to retrograde westward. This puts the trough axis just inland
from the west coast, west of the cascades. Although the ridge over
the pacific is not expected to move much, the net effect of the
change in the overall pattern during this time period is likely to
allow for the weather systems moving in to pick up more moisture off
of the pacific before they move inland. Since temperatures are very
likely to remain on the colder side of late february normals, we
expect to continue to see our snowpack grow, likely faster than it
has recently.

More specifically, on Sunday the 25th through Monday the 26th, a
major shortwave trough is expected to move through, with water
amounts mostly in the 0.50" to 1.25" range from the oregon cascades
and marble mountains of california westward. Snow levels are
expected to begin around 3500 feet, falling to the 1500 to 2000 foot
range as precipitation tapers off. Notably, the higher snow levels
than we've seen lately also mean that the atmosphere will be able to
hold more water, so mountain snowfall is likely to be more
significant during this time period. Preliminary amounts for this
frontal system appear to be 5 to 10 inches above 4kft, with 10 to 15
inches possible above 6kft.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be a relative break in the
precipitation action. However, due to timing differences in the
models and a cold air mass lingering over the forecast area, some
light rain and snow showers will still be possible, especially along
and near northwest facing slopes in the afternoon hours.

The next major shortwave trough in the northwest flow is expected to
arrive on Thursday, with snow levels around 2.5kft. With the upper
level trough likely to have reoriented along or near the west coast,
we'll probably see a little more southwest flow enhancement to the
precipitation with that one. Thus, it appears march is most likely
to come in lion-like.

Overall, long range guidance is indicating march will, most likely,
be colder than normal with above average precipitation for our
forecast area. For early march, the latest GEFS mean and cfsv2
indicate that the pressure pattern is likely to shift westward
enough to bring in more southwest flow weather systems during the
first week of the month as low pressure gears up in the gulf of
alaska. Currently, it appears this will be followed by a shift to
west flow track weather systems for the 2nd week of the month. Btl

Aviation 22 00z TAF cycle...

vfr conditions are expected to linger through early this evening 03z
before ceilings generally begin to come down again. However,
northwest flow is most likely to keep CIGS MVFR along and near
northwest facing slopes, especially along the cascades and
siskiyous, this afternoon and into this evening, and even a little
light rain or snow flurries are possible. Late tonight into Thursday
morning a stronger and colder frontal system than this morning's
will push in from the northwest bringing snowfall down to elevations
between sea level and 1,000 feet upward. MVFR to ifr is likely with
the frontal system as it moves across the forecast area from
northwest to southeast between 06z and 18z, with showers lingering
into the evening in some areas. The current forecast covers the
consensus of the model solutions rather than the extremes. Of note,
some guidance is indicating heavier snow than is being depicted,
while some is indicating it lighter, especially in the medford area
between 12z and 18z. Ceilings will lift some, generally to MVFR,
Thursday afternoon as the frontal system moves southeastward. Btl

Marine Updated 300 pm pst Tuesday 20 feb 2018...

steep seas are expected in the waters today with a low fresh swell
moving in. Eventually, high and steep seas will develop as a
system slides down from the north. Winds are expected to be close
to gale thresholds, but decided not to issue a gale warning because
the locations of gales was very isolated. Wind gusts are possible
up to 40 knots Thursday morning when the very cold air aloft moves
in.

Eventually, Friday will be a brief break from the action with high
pressure building in the outer waters, yet we'll see another storm
system move into the region on Saturday and Sunday. Look for high
and steep seas on Sunday through Monday.

-smith

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm pst
Thursday for orz028.

Freeze watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
orz021-022.

Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm pst
Thursday for orz022-024-026.

Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm pst
Thursday for orz021-023-025.

Ca... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm pst
Thursday for caz080-081.

Pacific coastal waters...

- hazardous seas warning from 4 am Thursday to 10 am pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

- small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 am pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370.

- small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am pst Thursday
for pzz376.

Bpn btl czs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi52 min 51°F6 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi69 min N 8 G 14 49°F1026.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi51 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F30°F79%1025.9 hPa

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Last 24hrS8S6S5S6W3SW3S7SE6SE3NE3N11N13NE10N10N10N5N9NE9N7N6W4W3S5Calm
1 day agoN5NE5Calm3SW4S4S5S5S4S5S5S3S6S5SE6S7S7S12S12S10S13S12S11S9
2 days agoSW8S8S7S8S5S4SW3W4NW5N9N6N7N5N5N4NE6N8NE8N9N8N8N10N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Wed -- 04:19 AM PST     6.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:17 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:00 AM PST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM PST     5.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:42 PM PST     1.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.43.64.966.56.45.74.73.42.31.51.21.52.33.34.24.95.14.84.13.22.41.81.7

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:31 AM PST     6.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:17 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:11 AM PST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:03 PM PST     5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM PST     1.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.23.44.85.96.66.6653.72.51.61.21.42.13.14.24.95.254.33.42.51.91.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.