Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:11PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 10:06 PM PST (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:40PMMoonset 9:35AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 912 Pm Pst Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Winds will shift from south to north through this evening and tonight, with steep seas continuing through tonight. After just a few hours of light winds and diminished seas, gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will develop south of cape blanco by Thursday evening, then spread north and west Friday. Conditions will improve briefly Saturday evening, then gusty north winds will return Sunday and Monday. Lighter winds and calmer seas are expected by midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 240520 aaa
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
920 pm pst Wed jan 23 2019

Updated aviation discussion...

Discussion There are a few lingering showers on higher terrain
this evening, mainly in the cascades and siskiyous, but those
will continue to diminish tonight as a drier air mass flows into
the area.

Fog is in the forecast tonight for most valleys across the forecast
area based on recent rainfall and increasing stability. Currently, a
mix of low clouds and fog is being observed on webcams, and it is
expected that many of these low clouds will descend, resulting in
fog by Thursday morning. East side areas like klamath falls and
alturas may see some patchy freezing fog as well.

Tomorrow's setup is always tricky, given its the first stable
morning with good potential for widespread valley low clouds and
fog. It's unknown how long clouds fog will linger into the
morning afternoon, so we're forecasting fog to lift by noon, with
low clouds clearing out for most areas. This is about average for
this time of year. High temperatures are forecast right around
guidance tomorrow for most areas, and this seems reasonable.

Please see the previous forecast discussion that highlights the dry
week ahead and the enhanced potential for overnight morning valley
fog.

Aviation For the 25 06z tafs... A mix of ifr MVFR ceilings is
persisting along the south coast withVFR generally elsewhere.

Higher terrain (above 4000 feet) that is obscured this evening will
gradually clear overnight. Widespread fog and freezing fog will
develop in many valleys late tonight or Thursday morning, especially
west of the cascades. Lower ceilings fog will clear toVFR late
Thursday morning afternoon. -spilde schaaf

Marine Updated 900 pm pst Wednesday, 23 january 2019...

winds will shift from south to north through this evening and
tonight. Meanwhile, west swell will continue to produce steep seas,
with improvement expected by daybreak tomorrow morning. After just a
few hours of light winds and diminished seas, a thermal trough will
develop along the coast by afternoon, resulting in gusty north winds
and steep wind-driven seas, particularly south of CAPE blanco. The
trough will shift north and offshore Friday, spreading the area of
gusty winds and steep seas north and bit more west.

Conditions will improve briefly Saturday evening, but models now
show gusty north winds returning Sunday and Monday as a cold front
passes to the east, reinforcing and expanding the influence of the
thermal trough along the coast. High pressure is expected to return
by midweek, resulting in lighter winds and calmer seas for the
latter part of the forecast term. -bpn schaaf

Prev discussion issued 353 pm pst Wed jan 23 2019
discussion... The latest visible image shows clouds cover gradually
dissipating over the area this afternoon. A weak cold front that's
draped over the area will continue to dissipate this evening with
any showers along the coast, coastal mountains, umpqua divide and
west and northwest facing slopes of the siskiyous and cascades
ending. The short range high res models don't show anything for
tonight and given the recent decrease and clouds and precipitation,
decided to go with a dry forecast tonight. Also there's should be
enough clearing for fog and low clouds to develop sooner for many of
the westside valley locations. Not as confident on the extent of the
freezing fog east of the cascades, but at the same time could not
rule out out, so we'll leave in the forecast.

Thursday and Friday will be dry as an upper ridge builds into the
area. Fog and low clouds are a good bet again late Thursday evening
into Friday morning for the westside valleys. High temperatures
Thursday and Friday could end up lower than whats in the forecast if
the fog and low clouds are slower to burn off.

A shortwave will move south into the area late Thursday night into
Friday which could mix the atmosphere up some and limit the extent
of the fog and low clouds overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

However confidence is not high enough to reduce the coverage or take
it out completely mainly due to precipitation that occurred over the
region last weekend which has left the ground saturated.

Once the shortwave passes by Friday morning, the upper ridge will
build over the area Friday night through Saturday. This will
increase the subsidence inversion resulting in a higher probability
of fog and low clouds for the westside valley locations Friday night
through most of Saturday morning. -petrucelli
long term... Sunday through Wednesday, january 27-30, 2019... A
dry pattern will prevail across the area through the middle of next
week with an upper level ridge axis parked along about 130w. This
will effectively keep any pacific systems from reaching the coast.

Precipitation probabilities are very low or nil through the
period.

On Sunday, the ridge will weaken a little as an upper air
disturbance rides over the top and settles into idaho and montana.

We expect that the morning inversion will break in most areas
resulting in a mild day area wide. The warmest locations will be
along the SW coast with highs in the mid 60s. Some western valleys
may start off with fog low cloud resulting in highs in the 50s, but
areas that clear quickly should easily reach the low 60s. Most east
side areas will reach the low to mid 50s.

The upper air disturbance will continue to dig southward through the
intermountain west Sunday night and Monday, bringing about 10
degrees cooling (compared to Sunday) east of the cascades. Cooling
won't be as noticeable, however, over the west side. In fact,
increasing surface pressure gradients will cause offshore east to
northeast winds on Monday and this will lead to another fairly warm
day along the coast with highs in the 60s. Winds will be strongest
at the ridge tops, but could also be felt in some of the valleys
that channel east winds.

Ridge winds remain elevated Monday night, but where winds decouple
(valleys) it will get quite chilly as a strong inversion develops.

Lows in the teens can be expected widely across the east side with
some single digits in the colder spots (klamath marsh area). There
should be some low clouds and fog in the valleys west of the
cascades, with areas of frost freezing fog as temperatures drop into
the upper 20s low 30s.

The ridge holds Tuesday into Wednesday with some warming expected.

Large diurnal ranges can be expected east of the cascades with lows
in the teens and 20s and highs in the 40s and 50s. West side valleys
probably have some low clouds fog in the mornings, but sunshine in
the afternoons with highs range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Beyond that, there is some indication that the pattern may begin to
change late next week as pacific systems try to break through the
ridge. This may take some time, however. Latest ec GFS ensembles
support this idea as the downstream blocking upper trough (near
great lakes) finally kicks out to the ne. Cfsv2 weekly climate
guidance has been consistently showing a wetter pattern evolving
toward the latter portion of week 2, or, around the first week of
february. The climate prediction center is indicating increased odds
for above normal precipitation in their latest 8-14 day forecast,
but with the highest odds in california. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 3 pm Thursday to 4 pm pst Saturday for
pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am pst Thursday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 4 pm pst Saturday for
pzz350-370.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi90 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 52°F1032.2 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi12 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast45°F42°F90%1032 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS16S19S12S14S15S16S14S15S16S16S11S10S8SW11W11W9W9W8W6SW5W5S3CalmSW3
1 day agoSE6S7S9S6SE8S6S8S5S5S7S7S10S8S8S9S11S10S8S13S9S12S9S11S14
2 days agoW3N6N3N3W3CalmW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmS33CalmSW5CalmSE4W4SW3S3SE4S5SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Thu -- 03:29 AM PST     6.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM PST     1.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:10 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:57 PM PST     7.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM PST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:56 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.64.45.96.76.764.83.52.41.92.134.35.86.87.26.85.74.12.40.8-0.2-0.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
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Thu -- 03:41 AM PST     6.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM PST     1.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:10 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:09 PM PST     7.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:57 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:57 PM PST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.34.25.86.86.96.35.23.82.6222.84.15.66.87.47.16.14.52.81.1-0-0.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.