Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:12PM Thursday April 26, 2018 6:27 AM PDT (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 3:57AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 208 Am Pdt Thu Apr 26 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Conditions will be relatively calm through Friday with weak surface low pressure over the waters. Scattered showers are possible late this afternoon through Saturday as an upper level low pressure moves through the area. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft conditions through this time. Small craft conditions are possible early next week as high pressure builds and northerly winds increase.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 261136
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
436 am pdt Thu apr 26 2018

Synopsis
Temperatures across inland areas will be around 20 degrees above
normal today. A broad, cold core, upper level low pressure system
will then push in this evening through Friday resulting in cooler
temperatures and precipitation. Showers, isolated thunderstorms,
and falling snow levels are expected through this weekend,
lingering into early next week. Temperatures are likely to
rebound to above normal values by mid-week. Btl

Discussion
Record highs were broken for yesterday, april 25th, at roseburg,
montague, and klamath falls with highs of 90, 85, and 80 degrees,
respectively. The old records were 84, 83, and 77, respectively,
all set in 2001. For roseburg the new record high was early
compared to the average date of may 29th for the first 90 degree
day of the season, but not nearly as early as when it reached 91
on april 7th of 2016. Similarly, for klamath falls, the first 80
degree temperature of the season occurs, on average, may 20th,
but, in 2016, it occurred on april 7th.

For today, while highs across interior portions of the forecast
area will be about 20 degrees above normal, we do not expect any
more records to be broken. Today is also likely to be the warmest
day of the next 8. Highs on Friday are likely to be a whopping 20
to 25 degrees cooler across the interior than they will be today.

These cooler temperatures are likely to linger through about
Monday until it warms back up to at or above normal around the
middle of next week.

The advanced nighttime microphysics product from the goes-16
satellite indicates that low clouds and fog have made an extensive
push inland this morning past elkton to about drain, camas valley,
and agness. It appears that this should be about as far inland as
they make it this morning.

While showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening, numerical model guidance indicates that
it's likely to take until this evening for precipitation from
these showers and thunderstorms to make it to the surface and,
even then, amounts should be light- under a tenth of an inch.

Vertical profiles for medford indicate an inversion below 6kft
that should cap any surface based convective cloud development
there, and the moisture layer aloft is well elevated, at and
above about 12kft above the surface. Probabilities of measurable
precipitation have been scaled back to less than 50 percent except
in eastern douglas county, where they are slightly higher. All in
all, what warrants a continuation of showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast is substantial southeast flow of
30-40 knots in the mid-levels this evening, low level flow from
the west pushing to the cascade crest resulting in low-mid level
convergence, CAPE values from the gfs20 between 200 and 700 j kg,
and 850mb li's of 0c to -3c. Therefore, orographic effects and
local moisture sources should be enough to overwhelm counteracting
effects this evening.

Precipitation probabilities go up substantially Friday through
Sunday as absolute vorticity advection increases and temperatures
cool to around -27c at 500mb. The majority of the model guidance
has trended wetter for the forecast area as dynamics become more
favorable for precipitation. Model guidance has a typical spring
theme, indicating shower and possible thunderstorm activity
peaking in the afternoon and evening hours Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday. Precipitation amounts of a quarter of an inch or more are
now forecast for nearly all inland areas, with amounts of a half
inch or more for the mountains. Some areas could see an inch to
1.5 inches of water today through Monday morning, mainly in and
near the cascades and siskiyous.

Snow levels will descend to the higher mountains Friday, and then
to 4kft to 5kft by Sunday morning. Due to higher precipitation
amounts now expected further south than was expected yesterday, 5
to 10 inches of snow could occur through Monday morning above
6kft in the cascades and siskiyous, with lesser amounts elsewhere
and below that.

It appears that temperatures will rebound to above normal again
around the middle of next week. Btl

Aviation 26 06z TAF cycle... Over the coastal waters and along the
coast... Widespread ifr CIGS will persist over the coastal waters and
coastal strips overnight with higher terrain becoming obscured. Over
the umpqua basin... Low clouds could spread inland but confidence has
decreased and we may just see scattered low clouds near rbg instead
of making ifr CIGS there with higher terrain becoming partly
obscured. Over the remainder of the area,VFR conditions will
prevail through Thursday but thunderstorm potential increases toward
the end of Thursday from cascades east. This could impact lmt but
confidence is low at this point. -fb

Marine Updated 200 am pdt Thursday 26 april 2018... No big changes
were made to the forecast this morning. Conditions will continue to
be relatively calm through Friday with weak surface low pressure
over the waters. Upper level low pressure will approach the area
today and move overhead Friday into Saturday. Scattered showers are
expected from this, beginning late this afternoon and diminishing by
Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small
craft conditions through this time.

Behind the upper level low, surface high pressure will build to the
west and northerly winds will increase Sunday night into Monday,
possibly bringing small craft conditions early next week. Br-y

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Btl mnf fjb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi64 min 52°F6 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi51 min SSW 1 G 4.1 54°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi34 minSSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds48°F46°F96%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S3SW3CalmCalmN6N7N7N8N10N8N7N3NW4W4SW7SW7SW6SW9SW8SW6SW8SW10SW10
1 day agoE3NE5NE5N7N7N10N12N10N11N11N10N8N7N9N7CalmS6SW4S3S4S6S3S5S4
2 days agoN6N4NE5NE6N7N9N13N15N15N14N14
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Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Thu -- 04:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:19 AM PDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM PDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:30 PM PDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM PDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.74.93.82.61.61.11.21.93.14.35.25.65.34.53.320.90.30.312.33.85.16

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:30 AM PDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:17 AM PDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:41 PM PDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:58 PM PDT     6.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.95.24.12.81.81.21.21.82.94.15.15.75.54.83.62.31.10.30.20.823.656

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.