Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:41PM Thursday November 22, 2018 2:22 AM PST (10:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:53PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 850 Pm Pst Wed Nov 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Conditions will significantly worsen tonight into early Thursday. Today, expect steep to very steep seas, some gusty winds and a slight chance for Thunderstorm into this evening. A powerful front will arrive early Thursday morning through early Thursday afternoon, with strong southerly gales developing along with an area of storm force winds. Very steep and dangerous seas will develop on Thursday and continue through Thursday night. A low pressure system may bring another round of gales and very steep seas to the waters Thursday night into Friday. Seas will remain elevated into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus66 kmfr 220422
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
822 pm pst Wed nov 21 2018

Discussion The forecast is on track this evening. The initial
frontal system is pushing east of the cascades with some light
precipitation lingering behind it beneath an upper trough moving
onshore. Peak wind gusts earlier today were 48 mph at weed
airport in the shasta valley and 58 mph at summer lake along
highway 31 east of the cascades. It also got breezy for a while
here in the rogue valley with wind gusts of 25-35 mph, highest at
the south end of the valley near ashland before the rains came. In
terms of rainfall, as of 7 pm pst, coastal areas had 1.00-2.00
inches, while areas just inland and in western south-central
siskiyou county had mostly from 0.50-1.50 inches. Here in the
rogue valley and in the shasta valley, amounts ranged from less
than 0.10 of an inch in ashland montague to 0.25 of an inch here
at the medford airport and up to 0.50 of an inch in jacksonville.

Rain amounts east of the cascades and in northern california east
of the shasta valley were largely less than 0.10 of an inch. Snow
levels at this time are running mostly above 5000 feet with the
bulk of the accumulating snow above 5500 feet. Snow was falling
earlier at crater lake and also at mt ashland, but, as expected,
web cams indicate just rain at siskiyou summit and also the pass
on highway 140 near lake of the woods.

Another vigorous disturbance will move through the coastal waters
Thursday morning and then onshore between north bend and newport
around 11am or noon. This system has a tight gradient and will
likely produce storm force winds over the coastal waters and high
winds along the coast with gusts possibly exceeding 70 mph at
capes, headlands and other exposed areas. This will translate to
many areas inland as well, so be sure to check out our high wind
warning advisory product at npwmfr. Another surge of moderate to
heavy rainfall is expected with this system thanksgiving day,
arriving at the coast 7-9 am, then spreading inland. A period of
gusty winds may precede the rainfall again here in the rogue
valley, but it should rain start raining 10am-noon with a soggy
afternoon. Steadier precipitation will push east of the cascades
in the afternoon. Snow levels are expected to remain around 5000
feet, wavering 500 feet either side of that. This will bring
significant snow to the mountains and myriad headlines are up for
this at wswmfr. Another break is expected in precipitation
Thursday evening, but yet another pacific storm system will roll
in late Thursday night into Friday. This one is a warm front that
will eventually bring a surge in snow levels, perhaps briefly
above 7000 feet Friday. With plenty of rain expected, there is the
potential for flash flooding or debris flows on recent burn areas
and these are highlighted in a flash flood watch at ffamfr.

-spilde

Aviation For the 22 00z tafs... MVFR visibilities and ceilings
will continue with showers moving in behind the front this evening.

We're expecting ifr visibilities in roseburg tonight as the boundary
layer stabilizes and all the new rain adds moisture to the air.

As for the rogue valley and the mfr airport, we decided to stay
withVFR conditions tonight.

Winds will ease tonight, but a very strong front is expected to
approach the area Thursday. As the front approaches the coast,
strong gusty south winds will develop across coastal areas as well
as into the shasta valley. Low level wind shear is also possible for
inland areas Thursday morning. Rain will move into the coast in the
mid morning bringing areas of MVFR CIGS vis and local ifr
conditions. -cc czs

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Wednesday 21 november 2018... Conditions
will significantly worsen tonight into early Thursday. Today, a
front will push inland by this evening. Expect steep to very steep
seas, some gusty south winds and a slight chance for thunderstorm
into this evening.

A powerful front will arrive early Thursday morning and move across
the waters Thursday morning through early Thursday afternoon, with
strong southerly gales developing along with an area of storm force
winds. Storm force winds are expected to develop over areas from 5
nm to 25 nm from shore from CAPE sebastian northward. Winds will
lower late Thursday afternoon to 20 to 25 kt. Very steep and
dangerous seas and wind driven seas are expected to develop on
Thursday. These very steep seas will continue Thursday evening and
night as a mix of wind seas or fresh swell mixes with building west
swell.

A low pressure system is expected to move into the area Thursday
night into Friday and may bring another round of gales and very
steep seas to the waters Thursday night and Friday morning. Late
Friday into Saturday expect elevated seas due to a mix of west and
southwest swell. Winds will diminish Friday night into Saturday.

Another weaker front is expected to move into the area Saturday
night into Sunday bringing additional rain and some gusty south
winds. Then Monday into Tuesday, models show the potential for
another fairly strong front to arrive with strong winds and
building seas. -cc

Prev discussion issued 259 pm pst Wed nov 21 2018
short term... A strong upper trough is moving onshore this
afternoon across the entire west coast. A strong shortwave within
this trough is moving into the southern oregon coast helping to
drive a cold front inland. Radar shows a broad area of moderate
rain extending from roseburg southwest oregon through northern
california about to push east through south-central oregon.

Another significant and strong shortwave will arrive at the coast
thanksgiving morning packing another round of strong south winds
for the region. A strong surface low will cross the oregon coast
somewhere between north bend and newport at about 10 am. A high
wind warning has been issued for the south coast and some inland
areas. This system will also produce an enhanced westerly push
into the area with colder air and lower snow levels. A combination
of winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings has been
issued for areas above about 4500 feet elevation. The snow will be
accompanied by wind gusts of 45-60 mph so things could get pretty
dicey if driving. Use caution and check the road conditions
before heading out. The winter weather event will taper
considerably by Friday morning but wet weather with rising snow
levels will remain widespread as a warm front lifts across the
area in advance of yet another surface low to move onshore near
coos bay. Ridging and drier weather is on tap for Saturday but
some rain may return Sunday for some west-side areas as a weak
shortwave rolls through. Travel for those returning home from the
holiday should be good. Monday looks fairly dry and mild as the
ridge holds but another wet system is expected by Tuesday with
more mountain snow. Stavish
long term... Sunday through Wednesday night... Although upper
level ridging will be in place over the region Sunday, the models
are depicting a weak wave traversing through the ridge. This little
impulse, although not expected to be a major player in the weather
scheme, should provide enough lift and moist onshore flow to produce
light showers along the coast and the cascades north of crater lake.

The next major front to reach the area is now expected to arrive
Monday night into Tuesday. There are some differences between the
model suites, mainly in regard to the surface features. The
operational ECMWF brings a surface low onshore well to the north of
seattle. Meanwhile, the GFS solution brings a rapidly deepening low
onshore near the mouth of the columbia river. These two scenarios
present vastly different wind regimes, but both should produce
plenty of rainfall. As a result, there is more than enough
confidence on precipitation to keep rather high chances in the
forecast for Monday night through Tuesday night. Confidence in the
wind forecast remains pretty low, so have kept them on the weaker
side for now.

Beyond Tuesday, there is little agreement between the models, except
that nearly all suites keep the wet and active pattern going, with
moist onshore flow and numerous troughs and fronts on deck to push
through our region. Have kept the remainder of the forecast wet and
active, but will not attempt to nail down details until there is
less uncertainty on the timing and strength of the individual
features. -bpn

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday
for orz029>031.

Wind advisory from 10 am Thursday to 7 pm pst Friday for
orz030-031.

Winter storm warning from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday for
orz030-031.

High wind warning from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday for
orz031.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday
above 4500 feet in the for orz027-028.

Winter storm warning from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday
above 5500 feet in the for orz027-028.

High wind warning from 7 am to 4 pm pst Thursday for orz021-022.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon
for orz022-024.

Wind advisory from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday for orz029.

Ca... Wind advisory from 10 am Thursday to 7 pm pst Friday for caz085.

Winter storm warning from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday
above 4500 feet in the for caz080.

Wind advisory from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday for caz084.

Winter storm warning from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday
above 5000 feet in the for caz082-083.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon
for caz080.

High wind warning from 7 am Thursday to 10 am pst Friday for
caz081.

Wind advisory until 10 am pst Friday for caz081.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday
for caz085.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Thursday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Storm warning from 4 am to 1 pm pst Thursday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning from 4 am to 1 pm pst Thursday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 1 pm Thursday to 1 am pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Mas mts bpn


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi29 min 52°F10 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi46 min S 1.9 G 5.1 50°F1010 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last
24hr
SE2
SE2
SW4
G14
SE2
G5
S2
SE4
G9
SE5
G9
SE4
G9
SE4
G10
SE4
S2
G7
SE4
G8
SE2
G9
SE2
G5
SE2
SE1
S1
S4
G8
S3
G8
S5
G9
S2
G6
S2
G5
E1
G4
S2
1 day
ago
--
--
SE3
SE4
G9
W2
G5
S4
G9
SE1
W1
SE3
NE2
S2
G6
SE4
G10
S4
G10
S4
G8
S3
G7
S2
G5
SE1
G4
SE4
SE1
SE2
SE1
SE2
G5
SE3
SE2
2 days
ago
E1
SE1
SW1
S2
SW1
NW1
W2
NW3
NW3
W3
E1
W5
W3
G6
E2
S1
G4
S4
G7
SE4
SE3
G7
SE3
G6
--
S1
S2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi28 minSSW 95.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F46°F90%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Florence
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM PST     5.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:39 AM PST     1.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM PST     7.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 PM PST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:41 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
5.75.54.83.72.72.122.53.75.16.57.37.46.75.43.71.90.5-0.3-0.40.31.63.24.6

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Gardiner
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:20 AM PST     5.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM PST     1.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:19 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:47 AM PST     7.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 PM PST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:41 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
5.85.7542.92.11.92.43.54.96.37.37.675.84.12.30.7-0.2-0.50.11.434.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.